The flipist method

[ArsenShnurkov]

Path of crocodile:


(Crocodiles can't go back)

[1713900548]

1713900548

[1713900548]

1713900548

[1713900548]

1713900548

[rebuilder]

OK, I wish I could say this is the dumbest thing I've ever done, but I doubt it.

The flip was 1, so I bought BTC with my USD.
First trade FINALLY conducted at 10:41 GMT, or thereabouts, as it turns out I can't just buy 100 dollars worth of BTC on bitcoinica, at least not via the web interface, so I had to do a bit of back and forth and ended up buying 14 BTC.

Here's the current status:

edit: whoops: here:


And thanks again to zhoutong for his donation to Flipism!

[rebuilder]

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

[Otoh]

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think?

I like this idea & the winner gets to win all the gains of all of the runners up say, it would be a good trading learning tool with positions/trades posted daily or weekly

Also good luck with the flipping OP

edit: yep I'd go short if the flip tells you to

[zhoutong]

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think?

This is a cool idea!

I will see if I can do anything in the future few weeks to make it happen.

Thanks for the great suggestion!

[Mageant]

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

I think so, because this resembles more closely the available options you have on Bitcoinica.

[zhoutong]

One more thing I'd like input on: Should I keep open the option of going short? I was going to just either hold USD or BTC, that is to say, long or no position, but in those terms it seems I should go short too, when the "coin" says so. I just worry the experiment might be ended too soon with such a risky approach. What say you?

Flip 1 - BUY, Flip 2 - SELL.

I would do this if I were you:

(Assume you buy 10 BTC at a time.)

1 - BUY           10
1 - HOLD         10
2 - SELL          0
1 - BUY           10
1 - HOLD         10
2 - SELL          0
2 - SELL          -10
2 - HOLD         -10

[chunglam]

Hi Zhoutong, I suggest you to host a Bitcoin speculation competition. Every participant start a new account with 100 USD and no further deposit and withdraw allowed. After one week or one month, the most net balance participant win the competition. What do you think?

This is a cool idea!

I will see if I can do anything in the future few weeks to make it happen.

Thanks for the great suggestion!

Thanks for your consideration, looking forward to participate the competition and win the big prize

[rebuilder]

Today's toss is: 1! So we hold our BTC!



So, currently there's an unrealized loss of 0.508%. We'll see what the next 24 hours bring...

[cypherdoc]

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.msg680888#msg680888

[Otoh]

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

[rebuilder]

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.msg680888#msg680888

I'll pass, thanks, since you're probably right. I've already taken up one losing bet, don't care to add another to it.
The spread is a mean SOB. Maybe this experiment will make it a bit more concrete just how important a factor that is.

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

Wouldn't the limit order actually create a bias towards the position I'm in? I may do that.

[Otoh]

yep, it would help I'm sure

[cypherdoc]

How about I bet you 15 BTC that after 2 mo of this type of trading you will be down?

I'm assuming right after the flip of the coin in the case of a sell you will execute your order via the Instant Execution tab by hitting the bid price for a sell just to make your experiment "clean".

You will lose the spread after every sell tx which will eventually grind your acct down to zero.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57178.msg680888#msg680888

I'll pass, thanks, since you're probably right. I've already taken up one losing bet, don't care to add another to it.
The spread is a mean SOB. Maybe this experiment will make it a bit more concrete just how important a factor that is.

yes this looks like the most obvious flaw of flip plan trading, I think you need a bias towards holding your position or adding to it rather than a 50/50 switch direction & also if you do get a switch signal to then place a limit order at the current price of the instant buy price if you're selling & for the current instant sell if you're buying

Wouldn't the limit order actually create a bias towards the position I'm in? I may do that.

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window.  not a fault of the idea, just the design.

[rebuilder]

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window.  not a fault of the idea, just the design.

Yes, in a sense. Of course it's clear when you're making a choice randomly the real issue is how you decide what kind of choice you need to make... Maybe I should hold positions longer, that way the spread won't kill me as quickly.

OK, to be honest, it seems the thing to do would be to not do this on Bitcoinica, but the 25 bucks zhoutong put up should cover the spread for some time. If the issue becomes intolerable, I'll consider moving to some exchange instead.

[Mageant]

but as it is your whole "flipist" experiment goes out the window.  not a fault of the idea, just the design.

Yes, in a sense. Of course it's clear when you're making a choice randomly the real issue is how you decide what kind of choice you need to make... Maybe I should hold positions longer, that way the spread won't kill me as quickly.

OK, to be honest, it seems the thing to do would be to not do this on Bitcoinica, but the 25 bucks zhoutong put up should cover the spread for some time. If the issue becomes intolerable, I'll consider moving to some exchange instead.

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

[rebuilder]

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

Essentially a lot of the time I do nothing anyway. Let's think of this as state changes. The states are: BTC, neutral and USD. I threw a 1, therefore went into BTC. This was a state change. Then I threw a 1 again, so I did nothing, but kept my state. Now I threw a 2, and therefore liquidated my position and will hold until the next day to see what happens next.

Hm. Maybe you have a point there. There is no option to hold in the neutral state. If I first did a roll to see if I do something or not - 1 being act, 2 being do not act, then rolled to see what to do, that would certainly add to the odds of holding. Too much? I don't know if there's an objective way to say. I'll probably introduce this extra flip tomorrow, if I (or someone else) don't come up with a reason it's a bad idea.

Anyway. It's flipping time again, and as stated above, it's a 2! So, I liquidated my position.


P/L thus far: -0.50 USD.

[Mageant]

How about a third choice by random to do nothing? This would give you more time for the market to move between buying/selling.
1 buy
2 sell
3 do nothing

Essentially a lot of the time I do nothing anyway. Let's think of this as state changes. The states are: BTC, neutral and USD. I threw a 1, therefore went into BTC. This was a state change. Then I threw a 1 again, so I did nothing, but kept my state. Now I threw a 2, and therefore liquidated my position and will hold until the next day to see what happens next.

Hm. Maybe you have a point there. There is no option to hold in the neutral state. If I first did a roll to see if I do something or not - 1 being act, 2 being do not act, then rolled to see what to do, that would certainly add to the odds of holding. Too much? I don't know if there's an objective way to say. I'll probably introduce this extra flip tomorrow, if I (or someone else) don't come up with a reason it's a bad idea.

Anyway. It's flipping time again, and as stated above, it's a 2! So, I liquidated my position.
P/L thus far: -0.50 USD.

My idea was to increase the periods of time where you do nothing. It's more likely that the market price will be more different then.
With your two choice system you change about every 2 days. With a three choice system you change about every 3 days.

[rebuilder]

I introduced the "to do or not to do" flip. This time, it told me to act, and the second flip told me to buy BTC. So I'm now long:

[rebuilder]

The coin is bullish! First flip: 1 - act! 2nd flip: 1: buy!. So since I'm already long, I hold my position.



This leaves an unrealized net value of 103.85 USD currently.