[XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency

[rpietila]

Who is Risto ?

Rpietila, the owner of castle in Estonia, Bitcoin enthusiast and Monero whale.

A for real castle owner? Any idea which castle?

I always think of Castlevania.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malla,_Estonia

Once again, to prove my royal birth to the trollbox. 

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[AnonyMint]

Why would anyone mine XMR for profit now when you can mine QuazarCoin, cash it in, and buy 30% more XMR than you can get from mining?  For that matter, Vertcoin should get you about 100% better return (GPU basis). The only rational reason to mine XMR now is because you want to help build the network - or you are just too lazy to switch coins.  

Can anyone make a rational argument against this claim:  The current hash power is almost 100% enthusiasts, who mine because of confidence, support for XMR.  (They are not  likely to be sellers.)  It makes no sense at all for any botnet to mine XMR for sale.

(Yet the current hash rate is roughly 85% of the historical high.  The depth of support this demonstrates is breathtaking.)

In Economics 101, the marginal price, not average price, is where supply and demand meet.

So the simple interpretation is that the marginal price is much higher than being reported on the exchanges, because most aren't willing to sell at any where near that price, thus the volume on the exchanges is insufficient to satiate actual demand. Thus the only way to meet demand is to mine at a much higher cost.

[Anon136]

Who is Risto ?

Rpietila, the owner of castle in Estonia, Bitcoin enthusiast and Monero whale.

A for real castle owner? Any idea which castle?

I always think of Castlevania.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malla,_Estonia

Once again, to prove my royal birth to the trollbox. 

not a castle but very cool none the less! you inherited it?

[arielbit]

Who is Risto ?

Rpietila, the owner of castle in Estonia, Bitcoin enthusiast and Monero whale.

A for real castle owner? Any idea which castle?

I always think of Castlevania.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malla,_Estonia

Once again, to prove my royal birth to the trollbox. 

not a castle but very cool none the less! you inherited it?

he is the crypto dracula of monero...he drinks monero for food..

[rpietila]

In Economics 101, the marginal price, not average price, is where supply and demand meet.

So the simple interpretation is that the marginal price is much higher than being reported on the exchanges, because most aren't willing to sell at any where near that price, thus the volume on the exchanges is insufficient to satiate actual demand. Thus the only way to meet demand is to mine at a much higher cost.

The price in the exchanges is a mirage. There's no way to buy anything at that price. 15 BTC is less than 7000 euros, and therefore peanuts, which supports my castle for about a week, and yet a market buy for that amount would take the price from 0.0028 to 0.0040.

As is the case with BTC, currently the price is suppressed, but once any demand materializes, it'll go much higher. (From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

[AnonyMint]

In Economics 101, the marginal price, not average price, is where supply and demand meet.

So the simple interpretation is that the marginal price is much higher than being reported on the exchanges, because most aren't willing to sell at any where near that price, thus the volume on the exchanges is insufficient to satiate actual demand. Thus the only way to meet demand is to mine at a much higher cost.

The price in the exchanges is a mirage. There's no way to buy anything at that price. 15 BTC is less than 7000 euros, and therefore peanuts, which supports my castle for about a week, and yet a market buy for that amount would take the price from 0.0028 to 0.0040.

As is the case with BTC, currently the price is suppressed, but once any demand materializes, it'll go much higher. (From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

How rare is it for upper echelon programmer to also be an astute economist, marketer, GUI designer, artistically adept, not lazy in the gym or sports, etc?

[smooth]

(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation.

Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course.

[rpietila]

In Economics 101, the marginal price, not average price, is where supply and demand meet.

So the simple interpretation is that the marginal price is much higher than being reported on the exchanges, because most aren't willing to sell at any where near that price, thus the volume on the exchanges is insufficient to satiate actual demand. Thus the only way to meet demand is to mine at a much higher cost.

The price in the exchanges is a mirage. There's no way to buy anything at that price. 15 BTC is less than 7000 euros, and therefore peanuts, which supports my castle for about a week, and yet a market buy for that amount would take the price from 0.0028 to 0.0040.

As is the case with BTC, currently the price is suppressed, but once any demand materializes, it'll go much higher. (From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

How rare is it for upper echelon programmer to also be an astute economist, marketer, GUI designer, artistically adept, not lazy in the gym or sports, etc?

Must be speaking of yourself then. Of those, I only find myself "astute economist".

[arielbit]

(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation.

Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course.

over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year is nothing for the whole world..this is the internet..
there is still plenty of area to grow, like this.. www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

[Febo]

I dont understand why so many so often when they say how many XMR is sold daily, say it so wrong.
 Daily are sold liek 60k XMR so 3 times more then is mined, so 300%. You see that on exchanges daily volume.

[smooth]

(From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

BTC also has daily inflation -- 3600+ BTC/day. That is not peanuts, it is over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year that needs to flow into BTC to absorb inflation.

Obviously BTC has more existing holders than XMR and therefore more of them selling, but the effect of those is significant for both. XMR daily mining is around 60 BTC, obviously not 100% of that is sold, yet exchange volume during periods of high activity has been quite a bit more than that, so we are seeing existing coins changing hands there as well. Plus off-exchange transactions of course.

over $2 million/day, almost $1 billion a year is nothing for the whole world..this is the internet..
there is still plenty of area to grow, like this.. www.coindesk.com/philippines-startups-fulfil-bitcoins-remittance-promise/

Remittences are about $400 billion per year. For simplicity let's call that $365 billion. For $1 billion net to flow into bitcoin as a result of remittence uptake, the entire remittence market would need to transition to bitcoin, and one full day of remittences would need to be kept in bitcoin at all times (combination of in-transit and remittences that remain unconverted). Those are very aggressive assumptions, and they only cover one year of inflation. The next year you need to find another $1 billion to flow in. If the BTC price goes up, the amount required to cover inflation goes up as well (obviously this applies to every coin).

[aminorex]

Remittences are about $400 billion per year.

I think you underestimate remittances substantially.  Where did you get that?  Is it intended to include central asia?

[smooth]

Remittences are about $400 billion per year.

I think you underestimate remittances substantially.  Where did you get that?  Is it intended to include central asia?

I found it on some web site, since I was looking for a rough number to use. Wikipedia says $514 billion (though two years ago -- probably higher now). Numbers of that order of magnitude don't change my analysis, which was only intended to show that even a very large market adopting bitcoin doesn't necessarily lead directly to billions of dollars of value flowing into Bitcoin itself, and even if it does, that is a one time event, whereas inflation is ongoing (though the reward halving in a few years will obviously change things).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remittance

[cAPSLOCK]

In Economics 101, the marginal price, not average price, is where supply and demand meet.

So the simple interpretation is that the marginal price is much higher than being reported on the exchanges, because most aren't willing to sell at any where near that price, thus the volume on the exchanges is insufficient to satiate actual demand. Thus the only way to meet demand is to mine at a much higher cost.

The price in the exchanges is a mirage. There's no way to buy anything at that price. 15 BTC is less than 7000 euros, and therefore peanuts, which supports my castle for about a week, and yet a market buy for that amount would take the price from 0.0028 to 0.0040.

As is the case with BTC, currently the price is suppressed, but once any demand materializes, it'll go much higher. (From then on it's different, because XMR needs daily demand to absorb the inflation, whereas BTC's price rise is capped by existing holders selling.)

How rare is it for upper echelon programmer to also be an astute economist, marketer, GUI designer, artistically adept, not lazy in the gym or sports, etc?

I believe the rarity approaches unity with "has delusions of grandeur". 

[dga]

I will pose - re-post - this question here, where it might get more feedback:

Why would anyone mine XMR for profit now when you can mine QuazarCoin, cash it in, and buy 30% more XMR than you can get from mining?  For that matter, Vertcoin should get you about 100% better return (GPU basis). The only rational reason to mine XMR now is because you want to help build the network - or you are just too lazy to switch coins.  

Can anyone make a rational argument against this claim:  The current hash power is almost 100% enthusiasts, who mine because of confidence, support for XMR.  (They are not  likely to be sellers.)  It makes no sense at all for any botnet to mine XMR for sale.

(Yet the current hash rate is roughly 85% of the historical high.  The depth of support this demonstrates is breathtaking.)

Because of the cost of trying to constantly track down and switch around to the most profitable coin.

Because of the quantity and relative stability of the pools.

Because of the volume available for exchange relative to the size of the market.

It makes absolute sense for a botnet to mine XMR for sale, because it has the largest volume of any of the cryptonotes and is the most *consistently* profitable coin over a longer period of time.  The activity of the botnet is least likely to perturb the profitability (i.e., to increase the difficulty).

Having 5000 nodes mining is a somewhat nontrivial management problem when you consider downtime due to pool failures, the latency of updating them, the increased risk of being discovered due to increased C&C traffic, etc.

QCN has 196kh/s
XMR has 13MH/s

A 5000 node botnet running at 500kh/s is less than 4% of XMR, and thus, is unlikely to reduce the botnetter's profitability.

A 5000 node botnet running at 500kh/s would cause the difficulty of QCN to triple, and thus, render it much less profitable.

Math is a wonderful thing.

[bezekal]

so low!! 

[blaaaaacksuit]

so low!! 

Ya but dat dere anonymity doe!

[phzi]

so low!!  

What's so low?  Coin and network look damn strong to me.

[ripplebtc]

I've seen that difficulty chart, doesnt show any instamine..., EC2 is only for very short periods of time. and GPU:CPU is 1:1 ratio, so he couldnt have made much..

Boolberry's private gpu miner guy was making 5-7k boolberry per day....hes still making over 2k boolberry per day...his instamine is in the hundreds of thousands unfortunately with boolberry.

Please stop lying! These posts below have been mentioned several times, but you still ignore it.

we're mining 5000-7000 coins a day

by the way the quoted mining number was from earlier days when the difficulty was in the 60-80G range. I think it has tripled since.
A lot more actors are in the cloud mining game now it seems.

That wall could be eaten any time. Yesterday 43 BTC buy wall at 0.002+ was destroyed in a single sale and i guess the dumper is probably Christian. His team is mining roughly 50% of newly minted BBR each day with his private GPU mining script. If he is happy to dump at 0.002, there is a chance he will continue to dump at 0.0016. He will keep doing so as long as he still make profit.

Not us. We're seldom holding more than 10000 BBR at a time. Also we're not interested in crashing the price (should be obvious).
Also note the majority of our BBR mining is actually CPU. The GPUs on EC2 aren't actually all that powerful.

The biggest sell order I've seen thus far was for 47000 BBR, but it wasn't executed while I watched. But it shows how many coins some people have amassed in their wallets. Probably whales with lots of BTC who bought in early and cheaply. I suspect one of these whales cashed out part of their holdings, destroying that buy wall yesterday. We were amazed like everyone else.

Christian

[Anon136]

It seems we now know where the "bottom" is, I'm buying all XMR I can, for the long term we need to acquire patience 

I doubled down. I wish i had it in me to triple down. But i don’t.