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Author Topic: Genesis-mining.com || World's leading hashpower provider!  (Read 381316 times)
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julian071
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February 10, 2015, 06:56:23 PM
 #2501

Today, Genesis-mining canceled my Scrypt contract (I did not opt to convert) as per the terms of the contract. However, they did give me the free GH they offered earlier anyway. A sincere 'thank you very much Genesis' from me for that.

Also, a nice long interview with 'our' CEO Marco Streng on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c


=P
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February 10, 2015, 07:25:21 PM
 #2502

Today, Genesis-mining canceled my Scrypt contract (I did not opt to convert) as per the terms of the contract. However, they did give me the free GH they offered earlier anyway. A sincere 'thank you very much Genesis' from me for that.

Also, a nice long interview with 'our' CEO Marco Streng on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c



Thanks for posting that Julian.

Ian

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February 10, 2015, 11:12:29 PM
 #2503

If's official, it would cost $5 million to develop a 16nm ASIC Chip for SHA256 algorithm Shocked

From Marco Streng interview (CEO of Genesis Mining):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c

Yearly, coin production value at $225 is $295,650,000

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, it is highly unlikely you will see a 16nm SHA256 mining ASIC CHIP on BITCOIN this year, because no manufacturer would expect to generate 34% net sales out of net coin values when BTC price is stably frozen  Roll Eyes

For Litecoin, coin production value at $1.80 is $18,921,600

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 10 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $50 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $500 million.

Modifying the formula for lower profits:

Using this formula, 10% is R&D ($5 million for 16nm), ratio of 1 to 1 on R&D versus Profit, total manufacturing profits must be $10 million. If, profit margin on selling units is 10%, then net sales will need to be $100 million.

Essentially, you are definitely not going to see a 16nm Scrypt mining ASIC on Litecoin at $1.80  Grin
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February 11, 2015, 12:59:23 AM
 #2504

Today, Genesis-mining canceled my Scrypt contract (I did not opt to convert) as per the terms of the contract. However, they did give me the free GH they offered earlier anyway. A sincere 'thank you very much Genesis' from me for that.

Also, a nice long interview with 'our' CEO Marco Streng on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ROQZZhjY1c


Thanks for this post!

Get a HUGE 3% discount with promo code: MOON @ Genesis Mining
https://www.genesis-mining.com
arallmuus
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February 11, 2015, 05:13:53 AM
 #2505

Isnt it much easier and cheaper  to just buy btc outright if people want to speculate  on the price rising.  Although  not as fun as mining or pretending  to be a miner by Buying hashrate On a cloud.

Yeah, but last year miners had a largish profits and 3-5 month ROI.

Clearly, that will be habit forming Roll Eyes

But, I'm coming round to the view: buy the crypto currency (checking it is not overvalued), stick in offline wallet, forget about for 1 year (do more interesting things with my time) and check it's apreciation in 1 years time Cheesy

either way early bird gets the worm
those who get in faster sure to be profitting anyway, the same words apply to those of early adopter

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February 11, 2015, 01:37:16 PM
 #2506

Well when Asics came out in Jan 2013 the diff was 3 million, then Jan 2014 was 1.2 billion, last month 40 billion.

You are dreaming if you think the diff will be anything under 47 billion by end of this year.  If btc price doesnt go up, alot of people are fup

If you have a better way to forecast than through past events you are welcome, but the curve seems to be going up.

They invented cloud mining because they cannot make any profit selling hardware that becomes obsolete within 90 days,


Do the maths dude Grin

Doubling the current difficult would require the additional usage of 26,9565 Bitman S5 ($413 plus PSU plus extras $600) units or their equivalent alternatives.

This would require $161,739,130 this year up front, plus not a single old unit must be decommissioned, however at 44 billion difficulty most of the old 1.2 watt units had to shut off Grin

Therefore, if difficulty doubled, most 1 watt units would have to be shut down and therefore another $161 million would be needed to replace them as well; net $322 million up front costs Shocked

Current Bitcoin price $225 makes this level of new investment impossible, because the profits per Bitcoin are insufficient to fund such investments.

Annual production of BTC this year value at current prices (3600 times $225 times 365 days) $295,650,000.

Most Bitcoins are never available to buy, under 30% reach the open Fiat Currency exchanges, which will be under $88,695,000 to fund hardware, labor and electricity costs. Nowhere, near close enough to fund the doubling of network hashpower.

QED. Difficulty will not double this year, but stay under 50 billion difficulty range  Shocked Roll Eyes  Grin

I read this for the second time, and its truly possible. However my feeling says we go up to 250 billion this year.

Get a HUGE 3% discount with promo code: MOON @ Genesis Mining
https://www.genesis-mining.com
thevictimofuktyranny
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February 11, 2015, 05:26:38 PM
 #2507

Did some comparison calculations posted on another thread, it may answer your question on difficulty for BTC Shocked

If you bought a Bitman S5 today as a newbie miner.

S5 is $413
PSU is $110
Raspberry Pi $56
Postage $23

Location USA, 10 cent per a watt.
Average difficulty 12 months 47 billion
BTC average price $225 over 12 months.

ROI is 14.28 months. Block Halving is in 18 months

Older miners, may have an existing PSU (11.28 months) or existing PC/Raspbery Pi (12.85 months) or both (10.28 months).

Cloudming ROI should be calculated on BTC average price of $225 and an average difficulty under between 41,44,47 and 50 (average is 47) billion before making the investment for 2015 Tongue

These are highly speculative estimates about difficulty and watt range of equpment and quanitity of PHs at each switch off point:

1.2watts per 1GHs 50PTHs is swtiched off, but still setup to be switiched on if BTC price rises.
1.2 watts per 1GHs 60PTHs is in locations were electricity is 9 cent per watt and switches off when difficulty passes 44 billion.

1watt per 1ghs will be switched off at a difficulty of 47.1 billion onwards. This is speculation, but about 160PTHs of network hashpower is here.

0.7watt per 1ghs will be switched off at difficulty of 67.3 billions onwards. This stuff is quite new and there is about 80GHs of it on the network.
 
So, there are significant obstacles in place to halt rises in network difficulty in 2015 compared to the doubling of difficulty seen in the last 5 months of 2014 Wink
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February 11, 2015, 10:30:34 PM
 #2508

I think it is safe to say that most users (90-95% at least) in the US pay more than .10 for electricity, more like .14-.18

And until there is a pattern (3 months or more) of month to month decrease in Diff rate, we can only assume from the previous pattern that it will increase every month

With these theories there is NO Asic machine that will ever ROI if btc price stats current.

even the best asic Antminer s5 would only mine lifetime .32 btc. ($70 usd)   (electricity on low end .14 and diff on low jumps 3%)

at higher end .18 electricity and 4% diff jumps it would mine .028 btc.  ($6 usd)
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February 11, 2015, 10:47:07 PM
 #2509

Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,184,649,295 (+8.39%)
Adjust time:   After 1663 Blocks, About 11.1 days

thevictimofuktyranny
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February 12, 2015, 12:08:08 AM
 #2510

Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,184,649,295 (+8.39%)
Adjust time:   After 1663 Blocks, About 11.1 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

That's going to hurt Bitman S5 sales in the USA at 10 cent

345.53 days ROI basic unit with postage (14 cent is  626.96 days)

475.51 days ROI PSU and Raspberry Pi included (14 cent is  862.79 days).

Not even in China at 8 cent does it look attractive

282.20 days ROI basic unit with postage

388.35 days ROI PSU and Raspberry Pi included.

A few people get free electricity, so some sales there Shocked

AMhash1 Dividends at Havelock will be reduced to approximately 4.6mbtc afterwards (BTC price $225), will need to watch how much network hashpower switches off afterwards Wink
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February 12, 2015, 12:25:42 AM
 #2511

Well, I suspect that it´ll pull back and end in +5-6%. Which is terrible enough after the last 7.7%. Then hopefully there will be some corrections in the hash bubble into the spring.

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February 12, 2015, 12:33:31 AM
 #2512

Well, I suspect that it´ll pull back and end in +5-6%. Which is terrible enough after the last 7.7%. Then hopefully there will be some corrections in the hash bubble into the spring.

Problem is that miners/commercial operations simply aren't throwing away their old mining equipment Tongue

When I sold off my Scrypt ASICs last year, it took me 5 hours to break it all down and tidy up.

Commercial operations, labor costs of breaking down an old Bitcoin Farm must be up around $10,000 plus, so you can see why all these old units are switched off and never dismantled and put in the trash Shocked
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February 12, 2015, 12:39:23 AM
 #2513

Another thing against the retail  people is  the  manufacturers  dont have much incentive to release  new products  immediately.   They  all secretly  mine new efficient miners for  some  time and then  release later when  they become less efficient.  I truly also belive  they keep track with themselves  to keep pricing of existing and new machines  not too low. Because they control the chip and machine and manufacture   industry. with profits  getting smaller they must all work closer together  by not killing themselves.
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February 12, 2015, 12:53:38 AM
 #2514

My current theory is that those big miners will maintain a pretty solid support at about where BTC is now. After all if they keep blowing up the hash bubble (with the perfect inverse correlation between hash amount and BTC price) they must conversely decrease their dumping of BTC. If the price of bitcoin gets solidly entrenched well below 200 for a prolonged period most mining becomes a dubious proposition I guess. So, I´m assuming that they´ll want to stay in business and therefore will do their best not to let the BTC market render them extinct.

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February 12, 2015, 01:10:09 AM
 #2515

But what about that big bump there you may ask. Doesn´t that break the perfect inverse correlation ?

Well, bitcoin experts and mining geniuses congregated in Holland last May for the bitcoin lovefest of the year. Spirits and expectations were sky high to say the least. Read about it here

BTC to break $2,000 mark by Christmas – Experts

http://cointelegraph.com/news/111597/btc_to_break_2_000_mark_by_christmas_experts





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February 12, 2015, 04:56:24 PM
 #2516

Hey,

Just wanted to say to the last few posters, it is nice to see some good information and topics being discussed instead of some of the negativitity that people have been posting in the last month or so.

All very informative and useful..

Thanks

Ian

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February 12, 2015, 05:40:06 PM
 #2517

I did this for those people who prefer rigid historical analysis versus future modelling of economic conditions analysis. I know some people prefer the former to the latter, even if that kind of analysis is less profitable in the long run Roll Eyes

Using this chart at coindesk:

http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-time/

20 May 2014: 6.9 billion start

27 September 2014: 34.6 billion finish

Net increase over 4.3 months 5x or 500% higher  Shocked

28 September 2014: 34.6 billion start

11 February 2015: 44.45 billion finish --Today---

Net increase 4.3 months 28.46%  Cheesy

The last measurement over the last 4.3 months looks much better and speculatively hints at a difficulty halting its rising trend at some point in 2015 (at least for a short while) Shocked
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February 12, 2015, 08:01:55 PM
 #2518

I did this for those people who prefer rigid historical analysis versus future modelling of economic conditions analysis. I know some people prefer the former to the latter, even if that kind of analysis is less profitable in the long run Roll Eyes

Using this chart at coindesk:

http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-time/

20 May 2014: 6.9 billion start

27 September 2014: 34.6 billion finish

Net increase over 4.3 months 5x or 500% higher  Shocked

28 September 2014: 34.6 billion start

11 February 2015: 44.45 billion finish --Today---

Net increase 4.3 months 28.46%  Cheesy

The last measurement over the last 4.3 months looks much better and speculatively hints at a difficulty halting its rising trend at some point in 2015 (at least for a short while) Shocked


Hmm, I guess (from what I'm reading here) the craze of mining is starting to slow as the price balances out. I'm in for the long haul, might as well buy a few more hashes. Smiley

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February 12, 2015, 08:24:42 PM
 #2519

I did this for those people who prefer rigid historical analysis versus future modelling of economic conditions analysis. I know some people prefer the former to the latter, even if that kind of analysis is less profitable in the long run Roll Eyes

Using this chart at coindesk:

http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-time/

20 May 2014: 6.9 billion start

27 September 2014: 34.6 billion finish

Net increase over 4.3 months 5x or 500% higher  Shocked

28 September 2014: 34.6 billion start

11 February 2015: 44.45 billion finish --Today---

Net increase 4.3 months 28.46%  Cheesy

The last measurement over the last 4.3 months looks much better and speculatively hints at a difficulty halting its rising trend at some point in 2015 (at least for a short while) Shocked


Hmm, I guess (from what I'm reading here) the craze of mining is starting to slow as the price balances out. I'm in for the long haul, might as well buy a few more hashes. Smiley

Remember difficulty is going up in 11 days to 48.45 billion, dividends will be reduced by 8.39%; adjust your ROI calculations and decide if it is worthwhile. I bought my hash in December and therefore I've got some of BTC back Wink

Also, AMhash1 at Havelock is less productive, but considerably cheaper. But, excellent customer service, error free payouts, regularity of payouts and coin choice is not part of that package. So, if you like the overall package of benefits at Genesis mining (I got my BTC converted into DRK and LTC for 1 month, which has done nicely) is what you need to relax, then it is the right choice for you Roll Eyes
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February 13, 2015, 01:03:49 AM
 #2520

Ready for a long term investment...upgrading to more in the next few days : )



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