Does martingale really works?

[dooglus]

This is true as well, but we make decisions based on the assumption this won't happen. Otherwise we wouldn't be playing on the site/in that casino regardless as to if we wanted to martingale or not, .

We don't usually concern ourselves with the finite lifetime of the casino because the finite nature of our own bankroll becomes the limiting factor first. But if we're assuming infinite bankroll and no max bet house limit then such things become more significant.

[deisik]

Douglus, I'm having trouble finding post where you explained how your odds increased slightly if you bet to increase your money 3 times at 33% instead of just splitting it in half and betting at 50%. I forgot if this was proven to be true or not.

I don't think I ever said quite that.

I've written about how your chance of doubling your money is a little higher if you use a single martingale progression instead of a single all-in bet. Most recently in this post:
  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.msg10529739#msg10529739

I've almost forgotten that I had been on this thread too. So how are things going, martingale (or some of its variants) proved to work finally?

[Wendigo]

Well if someone has a theory of how Hufflepuff has managed to get 1100 coins out of Primedice without using martingale would be a good start

[dooglus]

Well if someone has a theory of how Hufflepuff has managed to get 1100 coins out of Primedice without using martingale would be a good start

He knew his server seed?

[LiQuidx]

As with all the "strategies", it works until it fails. You should just stop before that happens.

[steven.G999]

As with all the "strategies", it works until it fails. You should just stop before that happens.

yes I think all the same strategy, in the end if you are too old to play to lose. but play single bet better than auto in my opinion

Essentially, you have to know when to stop.

[Astargath]

Well if someone has a theory of how Hufflepuff has managed to get 1100 coins out of Primedice without using martingale would be a good start

He knew his server seed?

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

[dooglus]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:



Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

something like 150 wins in a row  

[bitfilliates]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:



Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

That's just crazy. Are you sure that it's 100 bets in a row?

[Astargath]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:



Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

Oh. In that case you were right 100 wins in a row is something almost impossible (something like 0.00000000000000000000000000007889 %) if my math is correct lel

[deisik]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

Or it was the owner of Primedice in disguise. Looks very fishy, to put it mildly (unless something is broken there)... I remember you posted statistics from your previous dice casino, and if I'm not mistaken, there had been only one winning streak at 49.5% with 31 winning rolls in a row...

[Astargath]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:



Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

Or it was the owner of Primedice in disguise. Looks very fishy, to put it mildly (unless something is broken there)... I remember you posted statistics from your previous dice casino, and if I'm not mistaken, there had been only one winning streak at 49.5% with 31 winning rolls in a row...

Dooglus said the user knew the seed. It was not luck

[bitfilliates]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:



Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

Or it was the owner of Primedice in disguise. Looks very fishy, to put it mildly (unless something is broken there)... I remember you posted statistics from your previous dice casino, and if I'm not mistaken, there had been only one winning streak at 49.5% with 31 winning rolls in a row...

I'm pretty sure that Stunna wouldn't do that. What would he get out of this anyways? Doing this wouldn't attract more players. Maybe he wanted to lower the max bet?

[deisik]

Or it was the owner of Primedice in disguise. Looks very fishy, to put it mildly (unless something is broken there)... I remember you posted statistics from your previous dice casino, and if I'm not mistaken, there had been only one winning streak at 49.5% with 31 winning rolls in a row...

I'm pretty sure that Stunna wouldn't do that. What would he get out of this anyways? Doing this wouldn't attract more players. Maybe he wanted to lower the max bet?

Then somebody evidently managed to hack the site. dooglus, you say that the number of winning bets in a row was above 100. Could you please give us the exact number? Even with 100 bets it looks more like a job than a stroke of luck...

[Wendigo]

100 consecutive winning bets and around 1500 bitcoins later... Yeah sounds completely reasonable if you ask me 

[Minnlo]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:

-snip-

Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

But if the two players are the same person, why wouldn't him just keep playing "cleverly" and take another 2000 btc?

[Wendigo]

Maybe he would have raised some red flags if he were to run it up to 2000 in one sitting but how can one know the server seed in the first place?

[lava-trader]

i´m a 10 years forex expert
in 1 sentence

martingale does work 
( conter martingale )

set your profit to around 20 $ daily as equity target and you are fine
you need around 500 $ margin which is fantastic


in casino i hear a report from scientist that you need 170.000 $ to have a 99% chance to win 50 $
which is insane ( + casino has a betting limit so this calculation is nulled )

hope you understand me

[arallmuus]

Or he was extremely lucky, 99.9% of people come here and show their lose streaks it is not weird that at least 1 person wins a lot

Shortly after Hufflepuff withdrew his winnings, a "different" user won over 100 49.5% bets in a row:

-snip-

Was he extremely lucky too? Or was this HufflePuff giving PD the finger?

But if the two players are the same person, why wouldn't him just keep playing "cleverly" and take another 2000 btc?

clearly it is not huffflepuff, If I am hufflepuff, ill be satisfied with my 2k btc, that could be my entire life saving, and never bother PD again since I could be red flagged, for this reason I stand clearly that they are a different person

[Astargath]

i´m a 10 years forex expert
in 1 sentence

martingale does work 
( conter martingale )

set your profit to around 20 $ daily as equity target and you are fine
you need around 500 $ margin which is fantastic


in casino i hear a report from scientist that you need 170.000 $ to have a 99% chance to win 50 $
which is insane ( + casino has a betting limit so this calculation is nulled )

hope you understand me

Well some btc casinos dont have a limit, are you sure about that tho? Any links to that scientist report?