Does martingale really works?

[deisik]

Martingale dosnt work if there is a maximum bet.
All u can do is win 2 pennys or lose it all.
May be if 7 or 8 ppl play together against the house can work.

Even if there is no max bet, martingale won't work.
You may be able to sustain a longer loss streak assuming you have a huge bankroll, but still you are going to get a long enough streak sooner or later.
Don't forget every bet are always in favour of the house because of the house edge, and they are all independent. No matter how you play, the house still has the upper hand.

It could work but just one time only (well, a few times really). And, as with any one-off strategies (otherwise known as fool's luck), once you win, you'd better never come back and try again. But since greed and adrenaline rush have nothing to do with reason and common sense, being mutually exclusive, this is rarely the case...

Well then it will be just like risking all your bitcoin and playing a few 98% bets, hoping that you are not unlucky enough to get a loss. For that, I wouldn't call it "works".

Okay, but then nothing actually works (not just martingale) as long as the house edge is a positive number. So, for any discussion to make sense any further, we must somehow redefine the idea of what should be considered as working... Maybe, a strategy that will last you the longest should be deemed as such (and will give you the best experience at that)?

[GannickusX]

Martingale dosnt work if there is a maximum bet.
All u can do is win 2 pennys or lose it all.
May be if 7 or 8 ppl play together against the house can work.

Even if there is no max bet, martingale won't work.
You may be able to sustain a longer loss streak assuming you have a huge bankroll, but still you are going to get a long enough streak sooner or later.
Don't forget every bet are always in favour of the house because of the house edge, and they are all independent. No matter how you play, the house still has the upper hand.

It could work but just one time only (well, a few times really). And, as with any one-off strategies (otherwise known as fool's luck), once you win, you'd better never come back and try again. But since greed and adrenaline rush have nothing to do with reason and common sense, being mutually exclusive, this is rarely the case...

Well then it will be just like risking all your bitcoin and playing a few 98% bets, hoping that you are not unlucky enough to get a loss. For that, I wouldn't call it "works".

Okay, but then nothing actually works (not just martingale) as long as the house edge is a positive number. So, for any discussion to make sense any further, we must somehow redefine the idea of what should be considered as working... Maybe, a strategy that will last you the longest should be deemed as such?

Dooglus already posted what the best strategy was to raise a little bit the house edge, still negative of course, but yeah as you said there is no working strategy.

[jorjito25]

Without maximum and minimum bets it works.
Thats why casinos puts the limits bets.
I wouldnt waste my time explaining this... I think is very clear.

Nope it doesnt, if you are going to bet 1 satoshi as your main bet it would take you years to even win 1 btc since you have to play 200.000.000 bets to get 1 btc

The Only reazon That casinos Puts Limits bets IS Couse Martingale.
If dosnt work... Why to put limits?
Sure That will take U long TO Win. .. but will work.
Im not trying to convence to nobody but this is easy to understand.

[GannickusX]

Without maximum and minimum bets it works.
Thats why casinos puts the limits bets.
I wouldnt waste my time explaining this... I think is very clear.

Nope it doesnt, if you are going to bet 1 satoshi as your main bet it would take you years to even win 1 btc since you have to play 200.000.000 bets to get 1 btc

The Only reazon That casinos Puts Limits bets IS Couse Martingale.
If dosnt work... Why to put limits?
Sure That will take U long TO Win. .. but will work.
Im not trying to convence to nobody but this is easy to understand.

It would not take you long it would take you years to even win 1 btc, as i said it is not worth it and it doesnt work

[danielca9]

Message me jortito

[dooglus]

Without maximum and minimum bets it works.

It doesn't. Your expectation is still negative due to the house edge.

It stops working as soon as you hit your own personal limit. You have finite funds. You can't keep doubling forever. Eventually you will hit a long enough losing streak that you can't afford to make the next bet.

Thats why casinos puts the limits bets.

No, they limit bets because they too have finite funds and want to practice sensible bankroll management. Some Bitcoin sites have been known to offer bets that they can't afford to pay out on, but they're in the minority. The limits are to make sure that if you win, the house can actually afford to pay you.

I wouldnt waste my time explaining this... I think is very clear.

I think it's very clear that Martingale betting against a game with a positive house edge has a negative explanation. I think pretty much everyone agrees.

Dooglus already posted what the best strategy was to raise a little bit the house edge, still negative of course, but yeah as you said there is no working strategy.

I think you must have misread me. There's no way of changing the house edge.

What you can do is increase your chance of winning a certain amount, but you do it by reducing the amount you expect to risk, not by changing the house edge.

The Only reazon That casinos Puts Limits bets IS Couse Martingale.
If dosnt work... Why to put limits?
Sure That will take U long TO Win. .. but will work.
Im not trying to convence to nobody but this is easy to understand.

The limits aren't anything to do with Martingale. They exist to make sure the house can afford to pay winning players. And also to keep small stake players on a different table than the high rollers.

Just-Dice.com has almost no limits, and allows Martingale play. The smallest bet is 0.00000001 and the biggest is 100000.00000000 - the biggest bet is 10 *trillion* times bigger than the smallest bet. You can double the smallest bet around 44 times before reaching the limit. Does that make the house beatable? No. We have people running Martingale bots against it 24/7, making around 100 bets per second, and the site still keeps around 1% of the total amount wagered as its profit. But you are welcome to give it a try.

[GannickusX]

Without maximum and minimum bets it works.

It doesn't. Your expectation is still negative due to the house edge.

It stops working as soon as you hit your own personal limit. You have finite funds. You can't keep doubling forever. Eventually you will hit a long enough losing streak that you can't afford to make the next bet.

Thats why casinos puts the limits bets.

No, they limit bets because they too have finite funds and want to practice sensible bankroll management. Some Bitcoin sites have been known to offer bets that they can't afford to pay out on, but they're in the minority. The limits are to make sure that if you win, the house can actually afford to pay you.

I wouldnt waste my time explaining this... I think is very clear.

I think it's very clear that Martingale betting against a game with a positive house edge has a negative explanation. I think pretty much everyone agrees.

Dooglus already posted what the best strategy was to raise a little bit the house edge, still negative of course, but yeah as you said there is no working strategy.

I think you must have misread me. There's no way of changing the house edge.

What you can do is increase your chance of winning a certain amount, but you do it by reducing the amount you expect to risk, not by changing the house edge.

The Only reazon That casinos Puts Limits bets IS Couse Martingale.
If dosnt work... Why to put limits?
Sure That will take U long TO Win. .. but will work.
Im not trying to convence to nobody but this is easy to understand.

The limits aren't anything to do with Martingale. They exist to make sure the house can afford to pay winning players. And also to keep small stake players on a different table than the high rollers.

Just-Dice.com has almost no limits, and allows Martingale play. The smallest bet is 0.00000001 and the biggest is 100000.00000000 - the biggest bet is 10 *trillion* times bigger than the smallest bet. You can double the smallest bet around 44 times before reaching the limit. Does that make the house beatable? No. We have people running Martingale bots against it 24/7, making around 100 bets per second, and the site still keeps around 1% of the total amount wagered as its profit. But you are welcome to give it a try.

Maybe it wasnt you but there was a thread of how to win 1 btc with 1 btc and someone posted the best strategy and the house edge was a little bit better than the "real house edge"

[firesurfer]

Martingale can only work if you have infinite bankroll.
Most casinos have bet limits to counter people with huge bankroll to martingale.

[XinXan]

Martingale can only work if you have infinite bankroll.
Most casinos have bet limits to counter people with huge bankroll to martingale.

Dooglus already explained that casinos dont have bet limits to counter martingale since martingale sucks anyways, they have bet limits to be able to pay their customers

[deisik]

No, they limit bets because they too have finite funds and want to practice sensible bankroll management. Some Bitcoin sites have been known to offer bets that they can't afford to pay out on, but they're in the minority. The limits are to make sure that if you win, the house can actually afford to pay you.

I don't quite understand this. Indeed, these limits won't allow you to bet and, consequently, win more than the set amount, but, at the same time, this invariably means that they in fact will make you lose if you employ martingale and come up to that...

Martingale can only work if you have infinite bankroll.
Most casinos have bet limits to counter people with huge bankroll to martingale.

Dooglus already explained that casinos dont have bet limits to counter martingale since martingale sucks anyways, they have bet limits to be able to pay their customers

This doesn't in the least mean that they won't essentially stop a martingale sequence from exploding...

[Slark]

I just want to let you guys know about this software I stumble upon recently: Martingale Tester 1.57 Check this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=948131.0 "If you are a gambler, then this tool is very good for you! This will let you simulate the martingale strategy and other variants of it on your PC so that you can see how profitable or risky the strategy is. Since martingale is the Nr1. strategy used by gamblers worldwide."

[dooglus]

No, they limit bets because they too have finite funds and want to practice sensible bankroll management. Some Bitcoin sites have been known to offer bets that they can't afford to pay out on, but they're in the minority. The limits are to make sure that if you win, the house can actually afford to pay you.

I don't quite understand this. Indeed, these limits won't allow you to bet and, consequently, win more than the set amount, but, at the same time, this invariably means that they in fact will make you lose if you employ martingale and come up to that...

House limits can prevent you doubling your bet more than a few times, it's true.

That doesn't say anything about the reason for the existence of those limits.

Martingale betting is demonstrably a losing strategy, long term. There's no reason a casino would want to discourage it. People using Martingale betting tend to bet their bankroll over and over again. That's great business for the house. While it's probable that most people will make a small profit, you only need one of them to hit a bad streak and bust to more than make up for all the small profits.

[dooglus]

I just want to let you guys know about this software I stumble upon recently: Martingale Tester 1.57 Check this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=948131.0 "If you are a gambler, then this tool is very good for you! This will let you simulate the martingale strategy and other variants of it on your PC so that you can see how profitable or risky the strategy is. Since martingale is the Nr1. strategy used by gamblers worldwide."

As always, be very careful about what software you download and run.

I know nothing about this "Martingale Tester" but be aware that anything you download and run can potentially contain keyloggers, trojans, and many other kinds of malware.

Be safe out there!

[Slark]

I just want to let you guys know about this software I stumble upon recently: Martingale Tester 1.57 Check this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=948131.0 "If you are a gambler, then this tool is very good for you! This will let you simulate the martingale strategy and other variants of it on your PC so that you can see how profitable or risky the strategy is. Since martingale is the Nr1. strategy used by gamblers worldwide."

As always, be very careful about what software you download and run.

I know nothing about this "Martingale Tester" but be aware that anything you download and run can potentially contain keyloggers, trojans, and many other kinds of malware.

Be safe out there!

That is exactly reason I posted it here. I do not use it. And I want to know your opinion and maybe find someone who already have this software installed.
I don't think is is malware but I want to be sure.

[futureofbitcoin]

No, they limit bets because they too have finite funds and want to practice sensible bankroll management. Some Bitcoin sites have been known to offer bets that they can't afford to pay out on, but they're in the minority. The limits are to make sure that if you win, the house can actually afford to pay you.

I don't quite understand this. Indeed, these limits won't allow you to bet and, consequently, win more than the set amount, but, at the same time, this invariably means that they in fact will make you lose if you employ martingale and come up to that...

House limits can prevent you doubling your bet more than a few times, it's true.

That doesn't say anything about the reason for the existence of those limits.

Martingale betting is demonstrably a losing strategy, long term. There's no reason a casino would want to discourage it. People using Martingale betting tend to bet their bankroll over and over again. That's great business for the house. While it's probable that most people will make a small profit, you only need one of them to hit a bad streak and bust to more than make up for all the small profits.

Casinos don't want to lose a lot to a freak accident, that's all. It doesn't matter if someone uses martingale or some other strategy.

In fact, the type of player that casinos are most afraid of are people with huge bankrolls and only play 1 game. The house edge then is very small, and there's very significant chance the casino will lose. So they need to limit that loss.

[bumm]

Martingale is just one of many possible strategies of playing casino games. In casino games there is negative expected value, it means that any strategy eventually leads to loss. From this point martingale isn't better or worse that other strategies in general. And IMHO it's incorrect to blame martingale about losses.

[Pony789]

I just want to let you guys know about this software I stumble upon recently: Martingale Tester 1.57 Check this thread  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=948131.0 "If you are a gambler, then this tool is very good for you! This will let you simulate the martingale strategy and other variants of it on your PC so that you can see how profitable or risky the strategy is. Since martingale is the Nr1. strategy used by gamblers worldwide."

As always, be very careful about what software you download and run.

I know nothing about this "Martingale Tester" but be aware that anything you download and run can potentially contain keyloggers, trojans, and many other kinds of malware.

Be safe out there!

That is exactly reason I posted it here. I do not use it. And I want to know your opinion and maybe find someone who already have this software installed.
I don't think is is malware but I want to be sure.

Why do you need that "martingale tester" program? It should be very easy to code a small program to generate uniformly distributed random numbers from 0.00 to 100.0 with any kind of language. If you can't code at all, just use rand() in your excel.

[Pony789]

In fact, the type of player that casinos are most afraid of are people with huge bankrolls and only play 1 game. The house edge then is very small, and there's very significant chance the casino will lose. So they need to limit that loss.

Exactly.
The more bitcoin you play, the more negative your expected profit will be.
And the more games you play, the lower the variance your profit will be, equivalently your actual profit will be closer to the expected profit.

[DabbuDESIGNS]

martingale never works, it just ruins you

[XinXan]

Martingale is just one of many possible strategies of playing casino games. In casino games there is negative expected value, it means that any strategy eventually leads to loss. From this point martingale isn't better or worse that other strategies in general. And IMHO it's incorrect to blame martingale about losses.

Well you cant say that betting everything on 5% chance is a good strategy