rpietila Altcoin Observer

[explorer]

1) Satoshi got hacked, the email adress popped up recently, his Bitcoins get dumped. Since all Altcoins reference their trade value on that, going down in flames too. Should be visible inside Blockchain analysis.

Pretty unlikely this is happening. People would notice it I think and be shouting it from the rooftops if those coins moved at all.

   The noob troll accounts do shout this every time there is a drop.  It helps me to identify them for 'ignore' processing (cleared 3 this morning).  At first I used to check the blockchain.  Finally I signed up for my own account that I might exercise that little button, making lurking bearable again.

[1715000413]

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[1715000413]

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[Majormax]

1) Satoshi got hacked, the email adress popped up recently, his Bitcoins get dumped. Since all Altcoins reference their trade value on that, going down in flames too. Should be visible inside Blockchain analysis.

Pretty unlikely this is happening. People would notice it I think and be shouting it from the rooftops if those coins moved at all.

Actually no. If anyone had reasonable proof that had happened, they would keep it to themselves, and sell any BTC they held , carefully..

[TsuyokuNaritai]

1) Satoshi got hacked, the email adress popped up recently, his Bitcoins get dumped. Since all Altcoins reference their trade value on that, going down in flames too. Should be visible inside Blockchain analysis.

Pretty unlikely this is happening. People would notice it I think and be shouting it from the rooftops if those coins moved at all.

Actually no. If anyone had reasonable proof that had happened, they would keep it to themselves, and sell any BTC they held , carefully..

For about ten seconds until the next person noticed. A lot of people (and their alarm bots) are paying attention to those addresses.

[visual111]

Just a bloody period for all crypto over the last couple of months.

Still trying to do work on indexing, but I have a record of coinmarketcap showing total crypto cap at $8.6 billion on August 4th.

Just two months later, we're at $4.6 billion for a whopping 46.5% slide.  Not a lot of hiding places.

Total Market Cap: $ 4,639,741,579
Last updated: Oct 05, 2014 3:30 PM UTC

24h change -9.28 % for the top three, some doing as worse as -18.60 % (XMR). No hiding place anywhere, with the exception of "BitShares PTS" but that is a small one.

That is the mess, now where is the reason? Is it:

1) Satoshi got hacked, the email adress popped up recently, his Bitcoins get dumped. Since all Altcoins reference their trade value on that, going down in flames too. Should be visible inside Blockchain analysis.
2) Some other party sells on a grand scale. I remember there had been huge reserves inside Silkroad and MtGox. Traceable.
3) People distrust information technology now since the Snowden incident, so they sell (many small private holdings)
4) The other reason, it is not to many sells but lack of buying support. Should be visible in comparing the Orderbooks with history data (which I do lack)
5) Generall lack of interest since private people cannot mine Bitcoins anymore on their desktops. Duh, difficult one ... Difficulty is still high. But how to know where the Hashrate originates from?

edit:
6) self fullfilling prophecy taking place outside of the Altcoins. BTC gets sold because the price dips, with the intention of buying back in on a cheaper value. Hence the price dips further. This starteded 2~3 days ago

or http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2iauh9/ohcc_exchange_partnership_and_the_fractional/ ?

[rpietila]

Please someone make available the general index of altcoins vs. BTC how it's been doing in the time of carnage. (over the course of a few weeks, and also since the dropping through the latest floor)

I would say 10-20 largest altcoins would be good for the index, but I also heard indices with established methodologies exist.

[BombaUcigasa]

Please someone make available the general index of altcoins vs. BTC how it's been doing in the time of carnage. (over the course of a few weeks, and also since the dropping through the latest floor)

I would say 10-20 largest altcoins would be good for the index, but I also heard indices with established methodologies exist.

You mean something like this: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

But with a long-term chart of the top items?

[rpietila]

Please someone make available the general index of altcoins vs. BTC how it's been doing in the time of carnage. (over the course of a few weeks, and also since the dropping through the latest floor)

I would say 10-20 largest altcoins would be good for the index, but I also heard indices with established methodologies exist.

You mean something like this: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

But with a long-term chart of the top items?

I mean a table where there's a certain startpoint (for example Sept 15, when the BTC latest fall started in earnest). Then it lists how the altcoins have done during the decline. There's some talk in XMR threads that it has performed poorly, but some also say that it is better than most. A factual comparison would be really good obviously!

[gjhiggins]

Please someone make available the general index of altcoins vs. BTC how it's been doing in the time of carnage. (over the course of a few weeks, and also since the dropping through the latest floor)

I would say 10-20 largest altcoins would be good for the index, but I also heard indices with established methodologies exist.

You mean something like this: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

But with a long-term chart of the top items?

I mean a table where there's a certain startpoint (for example Sept 15, when the BTC latest fall started in earnest). Then it lists how the altcoins have done during the decline. There's some talk in XMR threads that it has performed poorly, but some also say that it is better than most. A factual comparison would be really good obviously!

I'm collaborating with a domain expert subscriber to this forum, working to develop something that would seem to broadly satisfy the requirement, the project's working title is "SandRaiser", btw.

I've been engaged in backfilling the data, it needs a bit more work but I should have something for you to look at later today (TZ=BST).

There are three indexes at the moment and a couple in speculative development :

1. FullMonty/+ - all altcoins with a calculable marketcap (very rough and ready, obv)
2. Key30/+ - top 30 coins by marketcap
3. NonMinables - an index of PoS-only coins.

1 & 2 are presented with and without LTC, hence the "/+" and have been balanced at August 23.
3 is balanced separately about a week ago (can't recall offhand).

The arithmetic is based on the equations laid out in S&P maths tech PDF doc

Is this the kind of thing you had in mind?

Oh, I'll chuck this in, as well - add a few facts to the mix, I posted it a few days ago in a separate thread, it may well have escaped your notice:



Cheers

Graham

[Anotheranonlol]

Please someone make available the general index of altcoins vs. BTC how it's been doing in the time of carnage. (over the course of a few weeks, and also since the dropping through the latest floor)

I would say 10-20 largest altcoins would be good for the index, but I also heard indices with established methodologies exist.

You mean something like this: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

But with a long-term chart of the top items?

I mean a table where there's a certain startpoint (for example Sept 15, when the BTC latest fall started in earnest). Then it lists how the altcoins have done during the decline. There's some talk in XMR threads that it has performed poorly, but some also say that it is better than most. A factual comparison would be really good obviously!

you can use cap/float weighted indices and filter out the shitcoin. Using mid august index start,   measuring last 7D action of top 25 alts with market capitalisation in excess of 1MM USD they are down about 12%, XMR certainly not the best performer.

[rpietila]

1. FullMonty/+ - all altcoins with a calculable marketcap (very rough and ready, obv)

This would be for me, thank you. Or the one with top-30

[rpietila]

Sometimes it's good to do primary research. The thing I took for granted - that altcoins are shattered when BTC sneezes - has proven to be a myth of highest order:

Code:

COIN	CAP15SEP	CAPNOW	REMAINS	REL/BTC
BTC	670000	442211	66 %	0 %
LTC	17350	12643	73 %	7 %
DOGE	3260	2786	85 %	19 %
PPC	1752	1848	105 %	39 %
DRK	1342	1073	80 %	14 %
NMC	1026	940	92 %	26 %
PTS	559	620	111 %	45 %
BTCD	721	401	56 %	-10 %
XMR	627	350	56 %	-10 %
BCN	280	200	71 %	5 %
FTC	126	186	148 %	82 %
QRK	252	178	71 %	5 %
XRP	15053	13704	91 %	25 %
BTSX	7327	5984	82 %	16 %
NXT	3794	2513	66 %	0 %
XCP	646	529	82 %	16 %

I selected Sept 15 to be the start of data due to that being the start of BTC fall (admittedly, it was selected to give a bad picture about BTC). My intention was to show that alts fall in sympathy, and generally leverage BTC's move down. This had been my experience with XMR.

Now, the data seems to give quite an opposing testimony. Over this period of time, only two alts (XMR and BTCD) exceeded BTC's decline. When BTC declined by 34% (seen above as "66% remaining"), the basket of alts (I used cubic-root weighting) declined by only 17%.

What do you think of this? 

[redsn0w]

@rpietila what about for the new altcoin ARCHcoin ? Can you give to the community an opinion  .


Have a nice day .

[Este Nuno]

Sometimes it's good to do primary research. The thing I took for granted - that altcoins are shattered when BTC sneezes - has proven to be a myth of highest order:

Code:

COIN	CAP15SEP	CAPNOW	REMAINS	REL/BTC
BTC	670000	442211	66 %	0 %
LTC	17350	12643	73 %	7 %
DOGE	3260	2786	85 %	19 %
PPC	1752	1848	105 %	39 %
DRK	1342	1073	80 %	14 %
NMC	1026	940	92 %	26 %
PTS	559	620	111 %	45 %
BTCD	721	401	56 %	-10 %
XMR	627	350	56 %	-10 %
BCN	280	200	71 %	5 %
FTC	126	186	148 %	82 %
QRK	252	178	71 %	5 %
XRP	15053	13704	91 %	25 %
BTSX	7327	5984	82 %	16 %
NXT	3794	2513	66 %	0 %
XCP	646	529	82 %	16 %

I selected Sept 15 to be the start of data due to that being the start of BTC fall (admittedly, it was selected to give a bad picture about BTC). My intention was to show that alts fall in sympathy, and generally leverage BTC's move down. This had been my experience with XMR.

Now, the data seems to give quite an opposing testimony. Over this period of time, only two alts (XMR and BTCD) exceeded BTC's decline. When BTC declined by 34% (seen above as "66% remaining"), the basket of alts (I used cubic-root weighting) declined by only 17%.

What do you think of this? 

What's interesting though is that the opposite I'm pretty sure is true though: that alts make big gains when Bitcoin does. Perhaps due to all these new holders of BTC seeking some leverage.

If BTC starts making a come back things could get pretty interesting. Especially because as you've shown, not much has happened to alts since Sept. 15th.

[Este Nuno]

@rpietila what about for the new altcoin ARCHcoin ? Can you give to the community an opinion  .


Have a nice day .

You didn't ask me, but I keep seeing these catch phrases applied to that coin:

"Designing Profit"

and

"The Profit Network"

Reading those lines make me want to never touch it in a million years. Sounds like something that you would find in an MLM scam.

[klee]

Sometimes it's good to do primary research. The thing I took for granted - that altcoins are shattered when BTC sneezes - has proven to be a myth of highest order:

Code:

COIN	CAP15SEP	CAPNOW	REMAINS	REL/BTC
BTC	670000	442211	66 %	0 %
LTC	17350	12643	73 %	7 %
DOGE	3260	2786	85 %	19 %
PPC	1752	1848	105 %	39 %
DRK	1342	1073	80 %	14 %
NMC	1026	940	92 %	26 %
PTS	559	620	111 %	45 %
BTCD	721	401	56 %	-10 %
XMR	627	350	56 %	-10 %
BCN	280	200	71 %	5 %
FTC	126	186	148 %	82 %
QRK	252	178	71 %	5 %
XRP	15053	13704	91 %	25 %
BTSX	7327	5984	82 %	16 %
NXT	3794	2513	66 %	0 %
XCP	646	529	82 %	16 %

I selected Sept 15 to be the start of data due to that being the start of BTC fall (admittedly, it was selected to give a bad picture about BTC). My intention was to show that alts fall in sympathy, and generally leverage BTC's move down. This had been my experience with XMR.

Now, the data seems to give quite an opposing testimony. Over this period of time, only two alts (XMR and BTCD) exceeded BTC's decline. When BTC declined by 34% (seen above as "66% remaining"), the basket of alts (I used cubic-root weighting) declined by only 17%.

What do you think of this? 

Only blind BTC fanatics (not your case) could not see this - I made a BTC fortune from alts.

Some are here for the long term (as BTC) whether anybody likes it or not.

[Este Nuno]

Sometimes it's good to do primary research. The thing I took for granted - that altcoins are shattered when BTC sneezes - has proven to be a myth of highest order:

Code:

COIN	CAP15SEP	CAPNOW	REMAINS	REL/BTC
BTC	670000	442211	66 %	0 %
LTC	17350	12643	73 %	7 %
DOGE	3260	2786	85 %	19 %
PPC	1752	1848	105 %	39 %
DRK	1342	1073	80 %	14 %
NMC	1026	940	92 %	26 %
PTS	559	620	111 %	45 %
BTCD	721	401	56 %	-10 %
XMR	627	350	56 %	-10 %
BCN	280	200	71 %	5 %
FTC	126	186	148 %	82 %
QRK	252	178	71 %	5 %
XRP	15053	13704	91 %	25 %
BTSX	7327	5984	82 %	16 %
NXT	3794	2513	66 %	0 %
XCP	646	529	82 %	16 %

I selected Sept 15 to be the start of data due to that being the start of BTC fall (admittedly, it was selected to give a bad picture about BTC). My intention was to show that alts fall in sympathy, and generally leverage BTC's move down. This had been my experience with XMR.

Now, the data seems to give quite an opposing testimony. Over this period of time, only two alts (XMR and BTCD) exceeded BTC's decline. When BTC declined by 34% (seen above as "66% remaining"), the basket of alts (I used cubic-root weighting) declined by only 17%.

What do you think of this?  

Also, perhaps with XMR was a self fulfilling prophecy with regard to the recent decline. From what I can tell XMR seems to attract many people such as yourself who have no interest in alts other than XMR itself. So perhaps all these XMR holders were under the impression that alts nose dived along with Bitcoin(I would have expected this as well for the most part I think) and sold off in anticipation of that.

[rpietila]

Well since I published this, XMR is creeping up...

[ArticMine]

Sometimes it's good to do primary research. The thing I took for granted - that altcoins are shattered when BTC sneezes - has proven to be a myth of highest order:

Code:

COIN	CAP15SEP	CAPNOW	REMAINS	REL/BTC
BTC	670000	442211	66 %	0 %
LTC	17350	12643	73 %	7 %
DOGE	3260	2786	85 %	19 %
PPC	1752	1848	105 %	39 %
DRK	1342	1073	80 %	14 %
NMC	1026	940	92 %	26 %
PTS	559	620	111 %	45 %
BTCD	721	401	56 %	-10 %
XMR	627	350	56 %	-10 %
BCN	280	200	71 %	5 %
FTC	126	186	148 %	82 %
QRK	252	178	71 %	5 %
XRP	15053	13704	91 %	25 %
BTSX	7327	5984	82 %	16 %
NXT	3794	2513	66 %	0 %
XCP	646	529	82 %	16 %

I selected Sept 15 to be the start of data due to that being the start of BTC fall (admittedly, it was selected to give a bad picture about BTC). My intention was to show that alts fall in sympathy, and generally leverage BTC's move down. This had been my experience with XMR.

Now, the data seems to give quite an opposing testimony. Over this period of time, only two alts (XMR and BTCD) exceeded BTC's decline. When BTC declined by 34% (seen above as "66% remaining"), the basket of alts (I used cubic-root weighting) declined by only 17%.

What do you think of this? 

Yes over a three week period this there will be divergences but over a year or more the overall trend does follow across many altcoins. Here are some examples:

Bitcoin, XBT/USD:  1 year BTC-E (For reference) http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/btc-e/1-year
Litecoin, LTC/XBT:  1 year BTC-E http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/1-year
Peercoin, PPC/XBT: 1 year BTC-E http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ppc/btc/btc-e/1-year
Namecoin, NMC/XBT: 1 year BTC-E http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/nmc/btc/btc-e/1-year
AnonCoin, ANC/XBT: 1 year Cryptsy http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/anc/btc/cryptsy/1-year
Freicoin, FRC/XBT: 1 year Cryptsy http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/frc/btc/cryptsy/1-year

Now over a shorter period there are all sorts of divergences. It is also possible that the altcoin market is even anticipating an XBT/USD bull run. Then there are coin specific questions. It is no secret for example that XMR took a beating due to the BCX affair when was then followed by uncertainty regarding the emission rate. One also needs an alt-coin with a valid alternative to Bitcoin and with a community willing to support the coin over the long term. The merit of the alternative may even be less important than the community commitment. Freicoin may be an example of the latter.

[redsn0w]

@rpietila what about for the new altcoin ARCHcoin ? Can you give to the community an opinion  .


Have a nice day .

You didn't ask me, but I keep seeing these catch phrases applied to that coin:

"Designing Profit"

and

"The Profit Network"

Reading those lines make me want to never touch it in a million years. Sounds like something that you would find in an MLM scam.

Thanks for you opinion ,  It is very appreciated . Now I would like a little analysis from @rpietila if is it possible. Thanks and have a nice day .

[nakaone]

overstock wants to build a new kind of wall street on top of counterparty / xcp

byrne wants to invest a single digit millions' amount to get the stuff started

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2iho5p/counterparty_founder_robby_dermody_hired_by/

maybe today I feel a little like the early adopter guys felt when bitcoin started, since I am one of the burners of xcp back in january (at the same time disclaimer ).