rpietila Altcoin Observer

[kelsey]

Perhaps it is good to interpret my own post because it wasn't obvious:

As with metals, the #1 is really valuable, but the #2 is only about 1/50 as valuable. Others are not even counted.

So will it be with coins, therefore do not buy coins that aim to be #3.

this is so true and what doomed Litecoin, I still think it has its merits but being silver of anything means being a lot less valuable besides being pegged to. XMR chances of surpassing BTC are bigger than of LTC, even though it still small.

No what doomed LTC is that it doesn't make a good silver. LTC aimed to be #2 which is fine according to rpietila's model, and so far it has done that, but it will likely fail to hold that spot in the future, and then at 3+ it is all over.

Think now if you did want to make it to the top 2 take a leaf out of the number 2s book. hint; it didn't get to number 2 by trying to take out or attack that that was above it.

LTC's not doomed at all, it was created taking into account why previous alts failed and in that its done a brilliant job. LTC's not going to fail at all because it has good infrastructure thats growing (as cryptos go), has some advantages over bitcoin when it comes to mass adoption (no anon dev etc).

Behind the scenes BTC has many hurdles to its upcoming ETF, knowing what they are (as its a project I'm on) I see litecoin would have an easier ride, thats not gone unnoticed

As for the there can only be 2, there was a plan (via a company I part own) to list a package of alts as an ETF to follow straight after BTC ETF, to this point its been put on hold, and this forum has alot to do with that (hence my frustration with the continual scam coins around here).

In summary btc/ltc not doomed because too much infrastructure been built around them and  its where the big money is and is heading, upto 20 other alts could get into that action as well if it weren't for the scams in here and the kill or be killed attitude of many behind alts.

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[coinsolidation]

In summary btc/ltc not doomed because too much infrastructure been built around them and  its where the big money is and is heading, upto 20 other alts could get into that action as well if it weren't for the scams in here and the kill or be killed attitude of many behind alts.

Is the infrastructure not portable?

I agree with you comment about scams and kill or be killed, it's those very reasons that leads us towards autonomy, running parallel to the set of alt-coins.

[Fern]

Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD

[iCEBREAKER]

Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD

Is Project DarkBerry confirmed?  All I've seen is BTCD guy pumping.

He is right to do so, because BBR offers leverage to XMR and has been severely undervalued for over a month.

As we are currently observing, when XMR has a good day BBR often has a great day.  And when it rains on XMR, it pours on BBR.   

[Fern]

Not sure exactly whats going on with boolberry but I am happily liquidating my small hedge there today,

BBR in talks with BTCD

Is Project DarkBerry confirmed?  All I've seen is BTCD guy pumping.

He is right to do so, because BBR offers leverage to XMR and has been severely undervalued for over a month.

As we are currently observing, when XMR has a good day BBR often has a great day.  And when it rains on XMR, it pours on BBR.   

Not confirmed AFAIK. It will be fascinating to see what happens if it does go ahead, assuming Teleport performs. I imagine it would be huge decision for any anon devs to make.

[pandacoin]

In Polo's trollbox:
rpietila: I made a 4-minute phonecall. The results should be visible in 2 minutes...

Price is 4.5 mBTC now.

[Globb0]

Woot!  come on RPietila     

[rpietila]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

[georgehosterguy]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

[Este Nuno]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

Probably has something to do with the fact that he seems to actively day trade XMR to increase his total holding. More volume is good for him.

Also, he's beginning a project to offer XMR options so that also ties in with what I was saying above.

[rpietila]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

Monero is so small that it needs to grow. Big money does not come before middle-sized money, and they don't come after small money has already bought in.

It is not good for any coin if one group controls it. So it would be counterproductive for the coin (and me) to pump it among my buddies alone.

The history of altcoins proves this. Organic growth is better.

[Majormax]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories.  

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

rpietila reply above makes sense. I understand that there is a lot of mistrust of motives in CryptoSpace. That is mainly down to the vast majority of coins being pump&dump schemes. I found it interesting to note how the new coins/schemes proliferated only after April 2013, and again after Nov (such a big expansion).

I have spent many years of my career with intrigue in financial markets, and my own philosophy (now) is to take most sensible comment at face value, then wait for contrary evidence to emerge. Given time you will either see confirmation or contradiction. Taper/step into investment positions accordingly. I know I have created a lot of wealth for 'random dudes', but it is immaterial to my own wealth or satisfaction.

Most people in my experience are actually well-meaning.

[drawingthesun]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

The more diverse the investor base the better, the issue with almost every other alt is that the investor base is a small insular group.

Why more diverse? Because (1) it spreads the investor base to all corners of the globe instead of just tech heads, (2) this allows the expanded investor base to call upon more resources to better help the coin as opposed to calling on the same crowd with a narrow set of skills (programming and forum browsing).

Most alt coins investor base consist of graphics driver programmers, teenagers with free electricity and scammers. Rpietila is helping to grow Monero beyond the computer science department.

[aminorex]

There are many games you can play.  Most alt traders are only familiar with games which are zero-sum, at best, in which there are winners and losers.  In those games, most players will lose.

The long-term investment game should be win-win, with no losers.  There's no problem with making money for random people on the Internet.  In fact, it is a necessary part of a successfully played game.  The surest way to lose is not to play.

[georgehosterguy]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories. 

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

Monero is so small that it needs to grow. Big money does not come before middle-sized money, and they don't come after small money has already bought in.

It is not good for any coin if one group controls it. So it would be counterproductive for the coin (and me) to pump it among my buddies alone.

The history of altcoins proves this. Organic growth is better.

So you won't sell it to your big buddies until lots of little fish are in it because you want to prove it has enough network effect to not ruin your reputation by failing?  Meantime you're pumping it to help it get the network effect to little fishes ... or you're pumping it up so you can get out without losing because you've found it's going to be replaced with something else?  Maybe that's in development?

Like I said ... your "I'm going to use my biddies to pump this thing to the moon ... get in now so we can get it up to the point where I can sell it to them" ... just.  Kinda alarms me.

I sorta see the logic.  But it's still kinda blatant shilling at best.

[darkota]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

No offense - but why would you be pumping the coin like this?  You are creating wealth for random dudes on forums if you plan on "eventually calling in the 100s of millions of dollars of big guns" instead of creating wealth for your investment network.  Your speech and actions tell different stories.  

As somebody pretty sold on Monero I just got a lot more concerned ...

Monero is so small that it needs to grow. Big money does not come before middle-sized money, and they don't come after small money has already bought in.

It is not good for any coin if one group controls it. So it would be counterproductive for the coin (and me) to pump it among my buddies alone.

The history of altcoins proves this. Organic growth is better.

So you won't sell it to your big buddies until lots of little fish are in it because you want to prove it has enough network effect to not ruin your reputation by failing?  Meantime you're pumping it to help it get the network effect to little fishes ... or you're pumping it up so you can get out without losing because you've found it's going to be replaced with something else?  Maybe that's in development?

Like I said ... your "I'm going to use my biddies to pump this thing to the moon ... get in now so we can get it up to the point where I can sell it to them" ... just.  Kinda alarms me.

I sorta see the logic.  But it's still kinda blatant shilling at best.

prove it has enough network effect to not ruin your reputation by failing?, - That doesn't make any sense, there isn't that much liquidity on the markets right now, so obviously anyone in their right mind would want More users to come and join/mine/buy/sell, to provide liquidity, so that when you buy the price wouldn't go up exponentially.

or you're pumping it up so you can get out without losing because you've found it's going to be replaced with something else? - That also makes no sense, rptiella has said many times Over and Over that XMR is the only altcoin he holds besides BTC itself.

[NewLiberty]

Monero is so small that it needs to grow. Big money does not come before middle-sized money, and they don't come after small money has already bought in.

It is not good for any coin if one group controls it. So it would be counterproductive for the coin (and me) to pump it among my buddies alone.

The history of altcoins proves this. Organic growth is better.

QFT

Risto, you have correctly distilled the reason folks are confused by what appears as a magnanimous public offering of information gained through your expensive research efforts into thinking you are manipulating them with false claims.  It is because you are manipulating us with true claims, and with actual magnanimity.  You are looking at the long game, not the pump and dump short game that people have become accustomed by charlatans.

This shows long term strategic thinking selfishness, rather than get rich quick selfishness.
The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

It matters not whether you care most about Bitcoin as asset/currency, Monero for privacy, Counterparty for advanced block chain features or another.  What is most needed for all of these is not money and investment, it is people, action and knowledge.
I would rather have 100 investors with $100 each than 1 with 500 times that amount if my goals are long term and win/win the opposite would be true if I wanted to grab and run.
People are the true wealth of the world.  I write this with the thought of Hal Finney going into the cryonic phase of his journey today, with the hope and confidence that if we can keep this world from a self inflicted doom, that he can return again healthy and warm after ALS is conquered.  Let us get to that future with a renewed energy and sense of purpose.

My Italian friends have a saying: "At the end of the chess game, the king and the pawn go into the same box".  Lesson being, it is what happens on the board that matters.  Well played, Risto.

[Globb0]

These threads have helped regain a little confidence after getting painfully burned in sharex

Currently trusting in XMR and the guys, including RP

[georgehosterguy]

The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic 

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin. 

[dga]

The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic  

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin.  

I disliked the phrasing, but let's assume there are two plausible interpretations:

(a)  Pump!  <-- Obvious possibility.  I've wondered it myself:  Did Risto buy a lot of XMR early (yes), and is he planning on riding a sequence of P&Ds to profit?

(b)  Ensuring continued, steady growth of the currency in a way that maintains community *and developer* excitement and encourages some forms of long-term adoption.

The "win-win" is (b), as Aminorex noted above.  It's a long game:  I own a lot of X, so I'm going to do things that I can to increase its fundamental value.  It's not crazy to think that encouraging sustained, longer-term interest in a currency could do that.  It keeps donations (or value) flowing to the developers, it keeps holders happy because they're getting value, etc.  Happy developers and continued interest yield more improvements to the currency and more potential users.  (a) is the quick profit.  Both of these schemes could be seen as selfish, because they're both designed to produce value for Risto.  "Selfish" is also a reasonable term for "financially rational."

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).  These same techniques apply on the stock market -- consider, e.g., Mitt Romney / Bain Capital's tricks with Ampad and Dade Behring on one hand (acquire, rip out fast profit, dump to bankruptcy), and Warren Buffett's style at Berkshire Hathaway (acquire, invest, improve, hold for the long term).  Hard to tell which it really is until you have hindsight, or trust.