rpietila Altcoin Observer

[Febo]

The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic  

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin.  

lol if you plan to do it because of that you might do it OK this time, but you will fail in most cases in your life. Read about Monero. See who develops it. You met some of the community here. See who else is in. Check Monero competition. If you like what you see, buy some. If not dont.

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[iourzzz]

The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic  

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin.  

I disliked the phrasing, but let's assume there are two plausible interpretations:

(a)  Pump!  <-- Obvious possibility.  I've wondered it myself:  Did Risto buy a lot of XMR early (yes), and is he planning on riding a sequence of P&Ds to profit?

(b)  Ensuring continued, steady growth of the currency in a way that maintains community *and developer* excitement and encourages some forms of long-term adoption.

The "win-win" is (b), as Aminorex noted above.  It's a long game:  I own a lot of X, so I'm going to do things that I can to increase its fundamental value.  It's not crazy to think that encouraging sustained, longer-term interest in a currency could do that.  It keeps donations (or value) flowing to the developers, it keeps holders happy because they're getting value, etc.  Happy developers and continued interest yield more improvements to the currency and more potential users.  (a) is the quick profit.  Both of these schemes could be seen as selfish, because they're both designed to produce value for Risto.  "Selfish" is also a reasonable term for "financially rational."

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).  These same techniques apply on the stock market -- consider, e.g., Mitt Romney / Bain Capital's tricks with Ampad and Dade Behring on one hand (acquire, rip out fast profit, dump to bankruptcy), and Warren Buffett's style at Berkshire Hathaway (acquire, invest, improve, hold for the long term).  Hard to tell which it really is until you have hindsight, or trust.

One of the main differences of Monero is that it mainly attracts people who choose (b)

[georgehosterguy]

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).

Yeah - I mean honestly it would be much better for all involved if the best anon tech coin pulled ahead sooner rather than later.  I would be more comfortable putting $10 into a coin that had won the anon tech coin race than $2 in Monero at this point.  Because the (and I'm sorry - there will be only one winner) best case scenario for all involved is for this to happen sooner rather than later.

I know people talk all the time about competition is good.  But actually in a currency where consensus and adoption drive value.  Competition is not good as long as the currency is not abused.

So yeah - if Risto is trying to get this one ahead of the pack and on track sooner then I can maybe see how all this adds up.  But the phrase "Buy cuz I have buddies who're going to push this over 100Million" reminded me of some of the shit I read in the XC thread.

"I'm going to tell you guys something.  I'm going to sit down with some very important people.  Some people with some very big pockets next week.  Some people who plan on investing and if they have to buy this entire coin - they will."

It just doesn't really add up to say "I have people who on my word will drive the value of this thing thru the roof so buy right now" unless you have some misgivings and you don't think the coin is ready for your primetime investor (which to his credit I suppose I can see why that might be the case).   Or you are blowing smoke and looking for an exit point.

I honestly wonder sometimes if the winner of the anon race hasn't shown it's head yet and it is lurking somewhere in the shadows.  Maybe a dumb gut feeling ...

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.

This line made no sense (sorry).  It should have read.

The long game is the only game where most people win at the expense of no one rather than where a few win at the expense of most people.  

[Ultros]

The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

The long game is smart, selfish.  I'm not sure about heroic  

Although it is the only game where most people lose at the expense of a few.  Maybe I should give him/Monero supporters more credit.  It just irritates me to see "You should invest in this coin because I have buddies with hundreds of millions I will call eventually"

I've seen it before and it didn't end well for the little guys who pumped the coin.  

I disliked the phrasing, but let's assume there are two plausible interpretations:

(a)  Pump!  <-- Obvious possibility.  I've wondered it myself:  Did Risto buy a lot of XMR early (yes), and is he planning on riding a sequence of P&Ds to profit?

(b)  Ensuring continued, steady growth of the currency in a way that maintains community *and developer* excitement and encourages some forms of long-term adoption.

The "win-win" is (b), as Aminorex noted above.  It's a long game:  I own a lot of X, so I'm going to do things that I can to increase its fundamental value.  It's not crazy to think that encouraging sustained, longer-term interest in a currency could do that.  It keeps donations (or value) flowing to the developers, it keeps holders happy because they're getting value, etc.  Happy developers and continued interest yield more improvements to the currency and more potential users.  (a) is the quick profit.  Both of these schemes could be seen as selfish, because they're both designed to produce value for Risto.  "Selfish" is also a reasonable term for "financially rational."

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).  These same techniques apply on the stock market -- consider, e.g., Mitt Romney / Bain Capital's tricks with Ampad and Dade Behring on one hand (acquire, rip out fast profit, dump to bankruptcy), and Warren Buffett's style at Berkshire Hathaway (acquire, invest, improve, hold for the long term).  Hard to tell which it really is until you have hindsight, or trust.

It's usually easy to detect (a). Whales that does (a) use paid shill accounts and rarely reveal that they are involved, so when the shitcoin crashes they can switch to another without loosing any credibility. They don't talk so openly and consistently like Risto does. He's risking his reputation here, being open about his choices since the beginning.
Also if Risto really wanted to pump/dump XMR I think the price swing would be much more violent. The volatility of XMR is pretty low (lol, I know) for an alt-coin.

[vuduchyld]

Risto, you have correctly distilled the reason folks are confused by what appears as a magnanimous public offering of information gained through your expensive research efforts into thinking you are manipulating them with false claims.  It is because you are manipulating us with true claims, and with actual magnanimity.  You are looking at the long game, not the pump and dump short game that people have become accustomed by charlatans.

This shows long term strategic thinking selfishness, rather than get rich quick selfishness.
The long game is also the heroic one.  It is the game that may survive us all.  The work of a magus not a charlatan.

It matters not whether you care most about Bitcoin as asset/currency, Monero for privacy, Counterparty for advanced block chain features or another.  What is most needed for all of these is not money and investment, it is people, action and knowledge.
I would rather have 100 investors with $100 each than 1 with 500 times that amount if my goals are long term and win/win the opposite would be true if I wanted to grab and run.
People are the true wealth of the world.  I write this with the thought of Hal Finney going into the cryonic phase of his journey today, with the hope and confidence that if we can keep this world from a self inflicted doom, that he can return again healthy and warm after ALS is conquered.  Let us get to that future with a renewed energy and sense of purpose.

My Italian friends have a saying: "At the end of the chess game, the king and the pawn go into the same box".  Lesson being, it is what happens on the board that matters.  Well played, Risto.

Whoa...helluva post right there!

[vuduchyld]

I couldn't tell you which of those is reality, but it's not crazy to think that it's (b).  These same techniques apply on the stock market -- consider, e.g., Mitt Romney / Bain Capital's tricks with Ampad and Dade Behring on one hand (acquire, rip out fast profit, dump to bankruptcy), and Warren Buffett's style at Berkshire Hathaway (acquire, invest, improve, hold for the long term).  Hard to tell which it really is until you have hindsight, or trust.

Fabulous example.  Thank you for the insight.

[aminorex]

Yeah - I mean honestly it would be much better for all involved if the best anon tech coin pulled ahead sooner rather than later.  
...
I honestly wonder sometimes if the winner of the anon race hasn't shown it's head yet and it is lurking somewhere in the shadows.  Maybe a dumb gut feeling ...

In order to be a viable candidate for the monopoly position of reference liquidity provider in a given liquidity niche, a currency must first and foremost provide proven reliable liquidity.  That can't happen instantly.  If another technology should emerge, with the fate to eventually displace XMR, it will be obvious long, long before the fact.  The sooner you buy in to XMR, the larger is your margin of safety to transition to XMR's successor when it emerges.

This approach is practically tested.  I bought in to DRK before XMR emerged, and flipped it before it peaked, started accumulating XMR before the first exchange, and accumulating heavily since the post-liquidity stabilization occurred.  I gained from DRK's rise, avoided its fall.  That does not guarantee that I will do it again, if a successor should emerge, but it is proof that it is possible.  My skills are not so extraordinary that I am uniquely able to execute such a plan.  Moreover, if I should switch in future, I will be motivated by self-interest to inform the public, contemporaneously, so that if I do have an unusual talent in this regard, you can piggy-back on it.

I'd like to see everyone who owns BTC accumulate XMR in roughly equal numbers.  I think it would be good for everyone involved.  And even for those who are not involved:  Sine secretum non libertas.

[Majormax]

These threads have helped regain a little confidence after getting painfully burned in sharex

Currently trusting in XMR and the guys, including RP

Sharex, and Sharecoin ?  You can get some back with your free distribution of 7080 Lottoshares.

[coinsolidation]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

[Majormax]

I market bought 2100 XMR for a client. I don't by any way mean it's much, but seriously I can only make one phone call per day, to one of my best investor friends, to avoid the price rising too quickly.

The total wealth reachable by my mailing list is 100s of millions. Last time I bothered them was when I told that "Bitcoin is something that you should buy now, even without research, even with small money, as long as it is now". 2013-2-6.

Looks convincing. How low do you think we'll go? How much do you think I should deposit to Mt.Gox to profit the most?

I have been waiting for so long to finally buy my first coins, and it is not only me - there are dozens in the same situation that I know, thousands in the city, and millions in the world. We want correction, and we want it now.

Well spotted...can prove anything with an appropriate quote !  Do you think it there's a chance it could have been sarcasm ?

[coinsolidation]

Well spotted...can prove anything with an appropriate quote !  Do you think it there's a chance it could have been sarcasm ?

No idea, and to clarify I do not seek to discredit rpietila or monero. It was simply a question.

My only constructive criticism is that this thread is looking unhealthy, it's looking very much to third parties as "trust me buy monero now, do it, buy it", people will be reading this and delegating responsibility for purchasing decisions to those trusted members in this thread, and wagering life savings or living costs on this currency.

It would be nice to see it change to discussion of technical merits, adoption, and usefulness, with any mention of perceived price-tag current or future limited to impartial observation.

Speaking only for myself, there are several members in this thread that I formerly had great respect for, of late they are conveying as shill's, whether intentional or not. I am sure non of you want that, as if anything goes south those people will lose credibility and to some respects be held publicly accountable whether fair or not.

I remember reading a reply recently from a former litecoin advocate, who simply felt awful because of how much time he'd spent encouraging people to buy, friends and associates had lost money and he felt bad. I hope none of you find yourselves in the same place.

On behalf of many other forum members, please just tone it down a little bit and be a bit fairer, less pressure, nobody needs to buy or sell - more presence from the developer(s) and those working on adoption or improvement would likely be far more beneficial to your goals than the current discussion.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is a one-week resolution chart of Peercoin from BTC-e. Note that proof-of-stake coins are not necessarily immune from the bubble collapse. PPC has fallen 14x from its peak. I believe that economic transaction volume is a key support of bitcoin prices vs some altcoins which have been held mostly for speculation.

[nioc]

Well spotted...can prove anything with an appropriate quote !  Do you think it there's a chance it could have been sarcasm ?

No idea, and to clarify I do not seek to discredit rpietila or monero. It was simply a question.

My only constructive criticism is that this thread is looking unhealthy, it's looking very much to third parties as "trust me buy monero now, do it, buy it", people will be reading this and delegating responsibility for purchasing decisions to those trusted members in this thread, and wagering life savings or living costs on this currency.

It would be nice to see it change to discussion of technical merits, adoption, and usefulness, with any mention of perceived price-tag current or future limited to impartial observation.

Speaking only for myself, there are several members in this thread that I formerly had great respect for, of late they are conveying as shill's, whether intentional or not. I am sure non of you want that, as if anything goes south those people will lose credibility and to some respects be held publicly accountable whether fair or not.

I remember reading a reply recently from a former litecoin advocate, who simply felt awful because of how much time he'd spent encouraging people to buy, friends and associates had lost money and he felt bad. I hope none of you find yourselves in the same place.

On behalf of many other forum members, please just tone it down a little bit and be a bit fairer, less pressure, nobody needs to buy or sell - more presence from the developer(s) and those working on adoption or improvement would likely be far more beneficial to your goals than the current discussion.

Much of the discussion I believe you are looking for has been held in other Monero threads, at least one of which has been locked.  Some of the threads are linked on the first post of the ANN thread which itself has a wealth of info. 

[Este Nuno]

Well spotted...can prove anything with an appropriate quote !  Do you think it there's a chance it could have been sarcasm ?

No idea, and to clarify I do not seek to discredit rpietila or monero. It was simply a question.

My only constructive criticism is that this thread is looking unhealthy, it's looking very much to third parties as "trust me buy monero now, do it, buy it", people will be reading this and delegating responsibility for purchasing decisions to those trusted members in this thread, and wagering life savings or living costs on this currency.

It would be nice to see it change to discussion of technical merits, adoption, and usefulness, with any mention of perceived price-tag current or future limited to impartial observation.

Speaking only for myself, there are several members in this thread that I formerly had great respect for, of late they are conveying as shill's, whether intentional or not. I am sure non of you want that, as if anything goes south those people will lose credibility and to some respects be held publicly accountable whether fair or not.

I remember reading a reply recently from a former litecoin advocate, who simply felt awful because of how much time he'd spent encouraging people to buy, friends and associates had lost money and he felt bad. I hope none of you find yourselves in the same place.

On behalf of many other forum members, please just tone it down a little bit and be a bit fairer, less pressure, nobody needs to buy or sell - more presence from the developer(s) and those working on adoption or improvement would likely be far more beneficial to your goals than the current discussion.

Much of the discussion I believe you are looking for has been held in other Monero threads, at least one of which has been locked.  Some of the threads are linked on the first post of the ANN thread which itself has a wealth of info. 

Most of the time this thread has pretty good discussion. It goes off the rails once and a while. But the topics are often interesting.

[Triffin]

Any thoughts about where this might be going if it gains traction ??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=762346.0

Some big ideas here ..

Triff ..

[dewdeded]

This "jl777" guy is involved in how many IPOs?

[binaryFate]

This "jl777" guy is involved in how many IPOs?

He just became the trendy brand of the moment.

[ArticMine]

Well spotted...can prove anything with an appropriate quote !  Do you think it there's a chance it could have been sarcasm ?

No idea, and to clarify I do not seek to discredit rpietila or monero. It was simply a question.

My only constructive criticism is that this thread is looking unhealthy, it's looking very much to third parties as "trust me buy monero now, do it, buy it", people will be reading this and delegating responsibility for purchasing decisions to those trusted members in this thread, and wagering life savings or living costs on this currency.

It would be nice to see it change to discussion of technical merits, adoption, and usefulness, with any mention of perceived price-tag current or future limited to impartial observation.

Speaking only for myself, there are several members in this thread that I formerly had great respect for, of late they are conveying as shill's, whether intentional or not. I am sure non of you want that, as if anything goes south those people will lose credibility and to some respects be held publicly accountable whether fair or not.

I remember reading a reply recently from a former litecoin advocate, who simply felt awful because of how much time he'd spent encouraging people to buy, friends and associates had lost money and he felt bad. I hope none of you find yourselves in the same place.

On behalf of many other forum members, please just tone it down a little bit and be a bit fairer, less pressure, nobody needs to buy or sell - more presence from the developer(s) and those working on adoption or improvement would likely be far more beneficial to your goals than the current discussion.

Well said. The key question to ask when one sees a trusted person advocating a coin is: Why is this person advocating this coin? Then do your own research. When I came across this thread while researching something else, namely the 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin, that was the first question I asked. Why is rpietila recommending Monero? Then came my own research, and only then  came the decision to invest.

[illodin]

And no you aren´t ready to go after your funds are denominated, to archive at least a good privacy you have to denominate them on every big transfer and have to use coincontrol to send them, so they never get mixed/linked with each other.

Actually the wallet even at this stage will take care of this, you don't have to fiddle with coin control and you can't accidentally send non-anonymized coins. If you try to send more coins than the wallet has managed to anonymize (for example you send most of your coins, and then receive a transfer, and then try immediately sending most of your coins again), it will let you know.

It´s not that easy.

Let´s say i have 1000 anonymized, i want to make 2 payments of 500 DRK.
After the first payment of 1 x 500 DRK i get a change back, this change can link the second transaction to the first. If the change is not sent back anonymized coins i have too less coins for the second transfer
In both cases the behaviour is annoying for users in the first it´s even dangerous.

What do you mean it's not that easy? It's exactly as easy or as hard as how I described.

Regarding your 2x500 DRK payment example, afaik the denomination sizes are 500, 100, 10, 1, 0.x (can't remember the smaller than 1 ones).
So when you send the first 500 DRK, you will spend one anonymous 500 output. There will be no change. And when you send the next 500, you will spend (depending on the total balance)
1x500 output, or
5x100, or
4x100 + 10x10, or
4x100 + 9x10 + 10x1

If I have misunderstood how it works, please let me know.

[dEBRUYNE]

Any thoughts about where this might be going if it gains traction ??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=762346.0

Some big ideas here ..

Triff ..

I would like to hear about this also..