rpietila Altcoin Observer

[slapper]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, botnet ops paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine;
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency;

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

[darkota]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I think we will. Equilibrium is not reached, it took a new wave down.

I also thought that 0.0035 would be a slightly more probable low point than 0.003 and that is again more probable than 0.0025 etc.

It is hard to see that the previous low of about 0.002 would be breached without news.

It could very well be Claymore.  I mean he is getting 5% of any GPU hashing on the network for free.  Low ball guess says 600 a day.  The could suppress pricing.

There are other GPU miners now and also a Claymore without fees.

A lot more than 600/day is being sold.

The total output has to find a home every single day. That means new money coming in, or people willing to mine (which always costs money in some way) and absorb that loss (essentially investing).

Price is determined more by demand than supply. I don't really understand why people obsess so much by supply factors (who is mining, who is selling, etc.) and largely ignore the demand side.

Right now there is ZERO reason to buy this coin (or most coins) outside of speculative interest. Speculation is highly unstable and highly volatile, so it is perfectly logical to see wide swings in price.

Your digging xmr's grave. Nice Job!

Your posts try to be as neutral as possible, which would make sense if you werent a part of the monero core team and werent invested in any coins....being neutral when your apart of the monero core team makes no sense and seems rather stupid/childish....your suppose to support your own coin. Lmao. But whatever.

[nioc]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I think we will. Equilibrium is not reached, it took a new wave down.

I also thought that 0.0035 would be a slightly more probable low point than 0.003 and that is again more probable than 0.0025 etc.

It is hard to see that the previous low of about 0.002 would be breached without news.

It could very well be Claymore.  I mean he is getting 5% of any GPU hashing on the network for free.  Low ball guess says 600 a day.  The could suppress pricing.

There are other GPU miners now and also a Claymore without fees.

A lot more than 600/day is being sold.

I agree that more than 600/day is being sold.  It was just a lowball theory.  I haven't seen any functional GPU miners besides claymore's who did drop 5% for less performance.  Do you have links?

I have never GPU mined so I don't know how useful any of the programs are or how they compare.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656841.msg7487737#msg7487737

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=671784.0

[Este Nuno]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I never expected them to go this low.

It is painful and discouraging.  Such is the way with downswings.

I wouldnt mind wild swings after Monero establishes itself as the #1 privacy coin. But with comp coming from every corner now, boom/busts do more harm then good, the mintpal pump was horrible timing.

Where does everyone think the money is going now then? Mostly held in BTC?

Money is still going into XMR, otherwise it wouldn't support a price of 0.0028 (or any other price >0). There is just less money going in that there was during periods of higher speculative interest (mintpal pump, etc.)

Yeah, but I'm curious as to where people think the excess money is going now. XMR is fairly large now and I'm not sure exactly where people who sold are reinvesting(if they are). For a while it looked like it was going in to Vericoin. But that seems to have cooled off. Unless I'm missing something the whole altcoin pool seems pretty calm at the moment.

[nioc]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I think we will. Equilibrium is not reached, it took a new wave down.

I also thought that 0.0035 would be a slightly more probable low point than 0.003 and that is again more probable than 0.0025 etc.

It is hard to see that the previous low of about 0.002 would be breached without news.

It could very well be Claymore.  I mean he is getting 5% of any GPU hashing on the network for free.  Low ball guess says 600 a day.  The could suppress pricing.

There are other GPU miners now and also a Claymore without fees.

A lot more than 600/day is being sold.

The total output has to find a home every single day. That means new money coming in, or people willing to mine (which always costs money in some way) and absorb that loss (essentially investing).

Price is determined more by demand than supply. I don't really understand why people obsess so much by supply factors (who is mining, who is selling, etc.) and largely ignore the demand side.

Right now there is ZERO reason to buy this coin (or most coins) outside of speculative interest. Speculation is highly unstable and highly volatile, so it is perfectly logical to see wide swings in price.

Your digging xmr's grave. Nice Job!

Your posts try to be as neutral as positive, which would make sense if you werent a part of the monero core team and werent invested in any coins....being neutral when your apart of the monero core team makes no sense and seems rather stupid/childish....your suppose to support your own coin. Lmao. But whatever.

He is being honest which is a quality much appreciated.

BTW I hear that a pump will be happening shortly.  Don't miss out.  0.02 guaranteed!    

[darkota]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I never expected them to go this low.

It is painful and discouraging.  Such is the way with downswings.

I wouldnt mind wild swings after Monero establishes itself as the #1 privacy coin. But with comp coming from every corner now, boom/busts do more harm then good, the mintpal pump was horrible timing.

Where does everyone think the money is going now then? Mostly held in BTC?

Money is still going into XMR, otherwise it wouldn't support a price of 0.0028 (or any other price >0). There is just less money going in that there was during periods of higher speculative interest (mintpal pump, etc.)

Yeah, but I'm curious as to where people think the excess money is going now. XMR is fairly large now and I'm not sure exactly where people who sold are reinvesting(if they are). For a while it looked like it was going in to Vericoin. But that seems to have cooled off. Unless I'm missing something the whole altcoin pool seems pretty calm at the moment.

It is calm for now, until a major announcement is made by a altcoin, like I2P support development starting,  , or something that would impact an alt-coin's features in a large way.

[smooth]

regarding xmr - did someone expect that low prices? - I assumed that we find after ATH a new equilibria around 0.005 or at least 0.004

I think we will. Equilibrium is not reached, it took a new wave down.

I also thought that 0.0035 would be a slightly more probable low point than 0.003 and that is again more probable than 0.0025 etc.

It is hard to see that the previous low of about 0.002 would be breached without news.

It could very well be Claymore.  I mean he is getting 5% of any GPU hashing on the network for free.  Low ball guess says 600 a day.  The could suppress pricing.

There are other GPU miners now and also a Claymore without fees.

A lot more than 600/day is being sold.

The total output has to find a home every single day. That means new money coming in, or people willing to mine (which always costs money in some way) and absorb that loss (essentially investing).

Price is determined more by demand than supply. I don't really understand why people obsess so much by supply factors (who is mining, who is selling, etc.) and largely ignore the demand side.

Right now there is ZERO reason to buy this coin (or most coins) outside of speculative interest. Speculation is highly unstable and highly volatile, so it is perfectly logical to see wide swings in price.

Your digging xmr's grave. Nice Job!

Your posts try to be as neutral as possible, which would make sense if you werent a part of the monero core team and werent invested in any coins....being neutral when your apart of the monero core team makes no sense and seems rather stupid/childish....your suppose to support your own coin. Lmao. But whatever.

The core team does not see our job being to "pump" the coin.

We are building a useful piece of open source software (and related services). If that leads to increased usage and adoption down the road, that should be reflected in the price. To the extent that speculators expect a higher price in the future they will buy more today.

If you are looking for a dev team to serve as cheerleaders for the coin in order to get short term price appreciation without any substantive improvements in value, you are looking at the wrong coin, but there hundreds of others in that mold to choose from.

[dga]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

While I think that wolf0's decision to knowingly write code for botnets is despicable, let me point out the only difference between XMR and a hundred other coins:

With XMR, you know that it's happening.

(Of course, we know it happens with Bitcoin as well - http://cseweb.ucsd.edu/~snoeren/papers/botcoin-ndss14.pdf  - but the reality is it happens with any CPU-profitable coin.)

The custom GPU miners are not that different from Bitcoin -- after all, to play in the bitcoin mining game, you have to purchase an ASIC.  The difference there is that the mining tax is closer to 100% -- or 150%, because most ASICs won't even ROI -- instead of 5%.

You're making the same mistake that others have in thinking that the process of mining is more important than it is.

Mining mostly matters to miners.  As a user, but not miner, of Bitcoin, I could not care less whether or not people have to buy custom silicon to mine it, or whether they make or lose money in the process.  Some attributes of the mining process matter for the value of coin, such as whether it's easy to 51% attack it, but that's really just saying that the security of the coin is important to users and holders.  But beyond that, the distribution of mining, or profits associated therewith, etc., are completely unimportant.

Miners are cogs in the coin machine that respond to the incentives created by the developers and the market.  Don't ascribe to them mythical powers -- look instead at the underlying money flow.

[smooth]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

While I think that wolf0's decision to knowingly write code for botnets is despicable, let me point out the only difference between XMR and a hundred other coins:

With XMR, you know that it's happening.

The custom GPU miners are not that different from Bitcoin -- after all, to play in the bitcoin mining game, you have to purchase an ASIC.  The difference there is that the mining tax is closer to 100% -- or 150%, because most ASICs won't even ROI -- instead of 5%.

You're making the same mistake that others have in thinking that the process of mining is more important than it is.

Mining mostly matters to miners.  As a user, but not miner, of Bitcoin, I could care less whether or not people have to buy custom silicon to mine it, or whether they make or lose money in the process.  Some attributes of the mining process matter for the value of coin, such as whether it's easy to 51% attack it, but that's really just saying that the security of the coin is important to users and holders.  But beyond that, the distribution of mining, or profits associated therewith, etc., are completely unimportant.

Miners are cogs in the coin machine that respond to the incentives created by the developers and the market.  Don't ascribe to them mythical powers -- look instead at the underlying money flow.

I could not agree more that the whole focus on mining in this community is completely misplaced.

The underlying truth behind this is that mining output is approximately constant. It doesn't really matter to anyone other than miners who is mining or how they are mining. The same number of coins are being released onto the market every single day, and the same number will be released every single day in the future regardless of who is mining (to be more precise for XMR-style coins, as opposed to BTC-style coins, a very slightly reduced amount each day).

If you are are a user what matters to you is what you can use the coin for (at present, nothing in this case). If you are investor what matters to you is whether other people are investing and how much (which affects the price action)

As I have said before, if you want this coin or any coin to appreciate in value, make it more useful. Create applications for it. Use your imagination as to which of these is likely to be profitable in their own right, and you will likely be directly rewarded handsomely for your efforts (in addition to increasing the value of any coin holdings). It isn't really that hard to figure out.

[hdbuck]

No one mentioned maidsafecoin at all in 77 pages?
by the way it's going to the moon now  
+36%
http://coinmarketcap.com/

Don't buy during pump. Obviously.

I bought three months ago

Are they pumping the price with some Mtgox lost coins again? MK's bitcoins.com auction maybe?

[cAPSLOCK]

Your digging xmr's grave. Nice Job!

Your posts try to be as neutral as possible, which would make sense if you werent a part of the monero core team and werent invested in any coins....being neutral when your apart of the monero core team makes no sense and seems rather stupid/childish....your suppose to support your own coin. Lmao. But whatever.

I would rather the devs develop as opposed to sell the coin.

I would rather the core team be honest and professional and not like a running around the internet like a guy in a checkered suit selling timeshares.

[surfer43]

The price chart is very similar for Monero and Boolberry

Monero:



Boolberry:

[aminorex]

Perhaps you have more precise information than I do. When I google "64-bit market share" I get hits claiming that nearly 50% of computers were running a 64 bit OS in 2010.

The google results I see show reports from 2010 that nearly 50% of new Windows 7 installations were 64-bit, which is substantially different from what you are representing here.  New installations of Windows 7 represent a very different class of systems than all existing operational personal systems, which is the principal and central class which needs to be served by XMR software.

[bigj]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

While I think that wolf0's decision to knowingly write code for botnets is despicable, let me point out the only difference between XMR and a hundred other coins:

With XMR, you know that it's happening.

The custom GPU miners are not that different from Bitcoin -- after all, to play in the bitcoin mining game, you have to purchase an ASIC.  The difference there is that the mining tax is closer to 100% -- or 150%, because most ASICs won't even ROI -- instead of 5%.

You're making the same mistake that others have in thinking that the process of mining is more important than it is.

Mining mostly matters to miners.  As a user, but not miner, of Bitcoin, I could care less whether or not people have to buy custom silicon to mine it, or whether they make or lose money in the process.  Some attributes of the mining process matter for the value of coin, such as whether it's easy to 51% attack it, but that's really just saying that the security of the coin is important to users and holders.  But beyond that, the distribution of mining, or profits associated therewith, etc., are completely unimportant.

Miners are cogs in the coin machine that respond to the incentives created by the developers and the market.  Don't ascribe to them mythical powers -- look instead at the underlying money flow.

I could not agree more that the whole focus on mining in this community is completely misplaced.

The underlying truth behind this is that mining output is approximately constant. It doesn't really matter to anyone other than miners who is mining or how they are mining. The same number of coins are being released onto the market every single day, and the same number will be released every single day in the future regardless of who is mining (to be more precise for XMR-style coins, as opposed to BTC-style coins, a very slightly reduced amount each day).

If you are are a user what matters to you is what you can use the coin for (at present, nothing in this case). If you are investor what matters to you is whether other people are investing and how much (which affects the price action)

As I have said before, if you want this coin or any coin to appreciate in value, make it more useful. Create applications for it. Use your imagination as to which of these is likely to be profitable in their own right, and you will likely be directly rewarded handsomely for your efforts (in addition to increasing the value of any coin holdings). It isn't really that hard to figure out.

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty in short to medium term, see BBR, see XMR, see LTC, see the other altcoins. This keeps investors away from a coin. Of course, making easy profit is the logical action from the business point of view. However, for the substainable development of a coin, a reliable environment is most crucial. Without price and network stability (and the continuous support of a rock solid community) it is very unlikely that a broader audience will (ever) spend money and effort on building applications etc that contribute usefulness to the coin, which is what every coin requires in order to get value. So, my point is simple: business miners are effectively counteracting the goal of creating a sound coin economy/environment. They endanger the survival of (good) altcoins, and act a bit like locusts. No one actually needs them.

[rpietila]

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty

This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking.

No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them.

[Este Nuno]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

While I think that wolf0's decision to knowingly write code for botnets is despicable, let me point out the only difference between XMR and a hundred other coins:

With XMR, you know that it's happening.

The custom GPU miners are not that different from Bitcoin -- after all, to play in the bitcoin mining game, you have to purchase an ASIC.  The difference there is that the mining tax is closer to 100% -- or 150%, because most ASICs won't even ROI -- instead of 5%.

You're making the same mistake that others have in thinking that the process of mining is more important than it is.

Mining mostly matters to miners.  As a user, but not miner, of Bitcoin, I could care less whether or not people have to buy custom silicon to mine it, or whether they make or lose money in the process.  Some attributes of the mining process matter for the value of coin, such as whether it's easy to 51% attack it, but that's really just saying that the security of the coin is important to users and holders.  But beyond that, the distribution of mining, or profits associated therewith, etc., are completely unimportant.

Miners are cogs in the coin machine that respond to the incentives created by the developers and the market.  Don't ascribe to them mythical powers -- look instead at the underlying money flow.

I could not agree more that the whole focus on mining in this community is completely misplaced.

The underlying truth behind this is that mining output is approximately constant. It doesn't really matter to anyone other than miners who is mining or how they are mining. The same number of coins are being released onto the market every single day, and the same number will be released every single day in the future regardless of who is mining (to be more precise for XMR-style coins, as opposed to BTC-style coins, a very slightly reduced amount each day).

If you are are a user what matters to you is what you can use the coin for (at present, nothing in this case). If you are investor what matters to you is whether other people are investing and how much (which affects the price action)

As I have said before, if you want this coin or any coin to appreciate in value, make it more useful. Create applications for it. Use your imagination as to which of these is likely to be profitable in their own right, and you will likely be directly rewarded handsomely for your efforts (in addition to increasing the value of any coin holdings). It isn't really that hard to figure out.

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty in short to medium term, see BBR, see XMR, see LTC, see the other altcoins. This keeps investors away from a coin. Of course, making easy profit is the logical action from the business point of view. However, for the substainable development of a coin, a reliable environment is most crucial. Without price and network stability (and the continuous support of a rock solid community) it is very unlikely that a broader audience will (ever) spend money and effort on building applications etc that contribute usefulness to the coin, which is what every coin requires in order to get value. So, my point is simple: business miners are effectively counteracting the goal of creating a sound coin economy/environment. They endanger the survival of (good) altcoins, and act a bit like locusts. No one actually needs them.

That's an interesting way to put it. I haven't seen it put quite like that before, but I can see where you're coming from.

I wonder if this type of attitude is going to become more prevalent as time goes on.

[Este Nuno]

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty

This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking.

No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them.

Sure but miners who have no interest in the coin and this sell immediately increase available supply and contribute to the overall sell pressure.

The demand is fixed in this case. But the miners are incentivized to increase the supply(available supply for sale and not held).

[bigj]

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty

This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking.

No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them.

Saving the coins is a neutral action compared to throwing tons of them on the market. Economically, selling tons of coins leads to falling prices when there is not enough demand, which is a typical situation in altcoin markets.

[rpietila]

I believe you are missing a point here: Business miners (mine big, sell quick, take profits and run) are causing, among other good and bad things, decreasing prices and (psychological/market/...) uncertainty

This is bullshit needlessly complicated way of thinking.

No matter who mines, there must be demand for the newly created coins. Economically, it does not matter if it is the miner who saves the coins or investor who buys them.

Sure but miners who have no interest in the coin and this sell immediately increase available supply and contribute to the overall sell pressure.

The demand is fixed in this case. But the miners are incentivized to increase the supply(available supply for sale and not held).

When I was learning economics, I learned that the miner has 2 different roles: businessman and saver. If he chooses to make business and save in the same coin, fine. But if not, all it takes is somebody else willing to save in that coin. Whether the saver is a miner or not makes no difference.

(A typical small business owner has 3 different roles btw: manager, owner and investor. First he must check that his capital invested is getting the market return. Then he has to calculate his market salary for managing the business. If there is anything left, that is his profit(loss) as the owner. This applies to the mining operation as well.)

[slapper]

If it were any other coin with

#1. Large botnets being primary miners, paying known mining coders to write custom code for them to mine
#2. Private custom GPU mining software asking for donations or face inefficiency

the coin would be subject of massive hatorade and calls for abandonment. XMR is getting away because of the network effect. It doesn't make it right and will debated down the road. But it is what it is. These are getting reflected in valuation at the moment. Any pump would mean more heavy selling from existing holders too, because they know they can get back in cheaper.

While I think that wolf0's decision to knowingly write code for botnets is despicable, let me point out the only difference between XMR and a hundred other coins:

With XMR, you know that it's happening.

The custom GPU miners are not that different from Bitcoin -- after all, to play in the bitcoin mining game, you have to purchase an ASIC.  The difference there is that the mining tax is closer to 100% -- or 150%, because most ASICs won't even ROI -- instead of 5%.

You're making the same mistake that others have in thinking that the process of mining is more important than it is.

Mining mostly matters to miners.  As a user, but not miner, of Bitcoin, I could care less whether or not people have to buy custom silicon to mine it, or whether they make or lose money in the process.  Some attributes of the mining process matter for the value of coin, such as whether it's easy to 51% attack it, but that's really just saying that the security of the coin is important to users and holders.  But beyond that, the distribution of mining, or profits associated therewith, etc., are completely unimportant.

Miners are cogs in the coin machine that respond to the incentives created by the developers and the market.  Don't ascribe to them mythical powers -- look instead at the underlying money flow.

I could not agree more that the whole focus on mining in this community is completely misplaced.

The underlying truth behind this is that mining output is approximately constant. It doesn't really matter to anyone other than miners who is mining or how they are mining. The same number of coins are being released onto the market every single day, and the same number will be released every single day in the future regardless of who is mining (to be more precise for XMR-style coins, as opposed to BTC-style coins, a very slightly reduced amount each day).

If you are are a user what matters to you is what you can use the coin for (at present, nothing in this case). If you are investor what matters to you is whether other people are investing and how much (which affects the price action)

As I have said before, if you want this coin or any coin to appreciate in value, make it more useful. Create applications for it. Use your imagination as to which of these is likely to be profitable in their own right, and you will likely be directly rewarded handsomely for your efforts (in addition to increasing the value of any coin holdings). It isn't really that hard to figure out.

I think these are good points from dga and you, but I think the role of mining is being downplayed. Those who are in Crypto these days have complete lack of respect for an equitable Proof of Work and how important it is in the perceived value of a crypto currency. Bitcoin mining centralization is a serious problem that everyone should be criticizing, learning from and adapting to make it viable and useful for the common denominator. That is why Bitcoin is Proof of Work and not some random distribution through stakes or shares.

Look at LTC. The #1 reason it is failing or on a road to failure is its acceptance and adoption of mining centralization. Everything else is just a by-product of this phenomena, even the use-case debate is an offshoot of this.

PoW centralization and discrepancies will be reflected in a coin's perceived value and economies. It is a serious cancer. Getting away with it will not be duplicable like Bitcoin. It is basic human psychology.