The Weekend Dip Myth

[Yuhfhrh]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

[anu]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

If enough ppl believe in the dip, they gonna sell now and buy back on Monday so the dip gonna happen.

[Stephen Gornick]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

Here's a prediction from another thread:

Also, Bitcoin is now in the danger zone range of $11-12. Expect about a 10% decline over the weekend.

[S3052]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

Here's a prediction from another thread:

Also, Bitcoin is now in the danger zone range of $11-12. Expect about a 10% decline over the weekend.

while a 10% dip can always happen, the above quotes are typical of a bullrun. still, many people don't believe that it can go much higher and then run behind the curve

[cypherdoc]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

Here's a prediction from another thread:

Also, Bitcoin is now in the danger zone range of $11-12. Expect about a 10% decline over the weekend.

while a 10% dip can always happen, the above quotes are typical of a bullrun. still, many people don't believe that it can go much higher and then run behind the curve

and even if that misguided prediction were to occur do you really want to risk ending up like Adam, left behind in the dust?  your timing would have to be perfect.

[dopamine]

So when does the weekend dip happen sat? sun?

[molecular]

So when does the weekend dip happen sat? sun?

lately it's been friday, thursday, wednesday, and sometimes even as early as tuesday.

It's been theorized that at one point the weekend dip will be up to 1 week earlier than expected and therefore there will be twice as hard a dip.

[dree12]

So when does the weekend dip happen sat? sun?

lately it's been friday, thursday, wednesday, and sometimes even as early as tuesday.

It's been theorized that at one point the weekend dip will be up to 1 week earlier than expected and therefore there will be twice as hard a dip.

No, Wed-Fri are all strongly up. Mon-Tue are down. This is because people fail to anticipate the weekend dip, possibly the most reliable indicator of price-time correlation. In fact, the weekend dip has been delayed because so many people believe that it is a myth.

[Cablez]

Or that someone or some group artificially stabilize the price to make it look like a myth.  Nice valley formed this weekend.

[waspoza]

My bet goes on sunday.

[cbeast]

So many people are waiting for the weekend, that it is now the mid-week dip. It goes great with potato chips.

[dree12]

So many people are waiting for the weekend, that it is now the mid-week dip. It goes great with potato chips.

I just debunked this myth... I'm sure it's because so many people believe in the "mid-week dip" that the weekend dip has been delayed. The price now goes down on Monday and Tuesday, and shoots up Wednesday to Friday.

[smoothie]

Well, whats gonna happen this Saturday and Sunday I wonder?

Here's a prediction from another thread:

Also, Bitcoin is now in the danger zone range of $11-12. Expect about a 10% decline over the weekend.

while a 10% dip can always happen, the above quotes are typical of a bullrun. still, many people don't believe that it can go much higher and then run behind the curve

and even if that misguided prediction were to occur do you really want to risk ending up like Adam, left behind in the dust?  your timing would have to be perfect.

How is it misguided when no one can predict the future?

[ruski]

When I sat down on Friday night to finally decide if I was going to dump another $1500 into BTC, at $11.40, or wait for the weekend dip, I considered the following -

Three very large and obviously false walls - $12, $12.20 and $13, all of which disappeared as expected, so big players are trying to get a lower buy-in.
The weekend dip for the last month has been shallower and shallower only to be followed by growth the next week. Everyone else has noticed that by now, and expects the price to continue rising.
Large support on the buy side, outweighing the sell side about three-to-one. Even with weekend sales and bank-deposit limited new buys, the demand would hold.

With all the nervous holdouts that were waiting for the dip that hasn't come buying back in, along with new deposits, along with left-behind buy orders brought to market, I'm expecting panic buys to hit the roof this monday-tuesday. $15 doesn't look outlandish.

The June $30 bubble happened within a day. That day might be coming again sooner than you think - except with volume an order of magnitude higher than it was then, it's much more likely to reach that point and then stay.

Just my two satoshis. Happy trading.

[S3052]

When I sat down on Friday night to finally decide if I was going to dump another $1500 into BTC, at $11.40, or wait for the weekend dip, I considered the following -

Three very large and obviously false walls - $12, $12.20 and $13, all of which disappeared as expected, so big players are trying to get a lower buy-in.
The weekend dip for the last month has been shallower and shallower only to be followed by growth the next week. Everyone else has noticed that by now, and expects the price to continue rising.
Large support on the buy side, outweighing the sell side about three-to-one. Even with weekend sales and bank-deposit limited new buys, the demand would hold.

With all the nervous holdouts that were waiting for the dip that hasn't come buying back in, along with new deposits, along with left-behind buy orders brought to market, I'm expecting panic buys to hit the roof this monday-tuesday. $15 doesn't look outlandish.

The June $30 bubble happened within a day. That day might be coming again sooner than you think - except with volume an order of magnitude higher than it was then, it's much more likely to reach that point and then stay.

Just my two satoshis. Happy trading.

Great post, and this is in line with our forecast and it is also in line with my experience in 2011.
Most of the biggest advances actually happened over the weekend or close to the weekend as bears were caught off guard.

In June 2011, prices tripled in just 8 days and the second strongest advance within that was on a weekend (Jun 4+5).

[ArticMine]

What I find interesting about false walls is that they can become very real if a long term investor who does not mind paying say 2% or 3% over market simply buys the thing out. If the purpose of the false wall was to induce selling so that a "big player" who is short can cover his short position then the real fun begins.

[adamstgBit]

The Weekend Dip Myth My Ass!

[dopamine]

looks like it still holds...

[Stephen Gornick]

The Weekend Dip Myth My Ass!

The original weekend dip strategy refers to when there is a downtrend is occurring.     We are not in a downtrend.  

The weekend dip strategy said that: "On Wednesday evening (west)/Thursday morning (east) if the 7-day high for the exchange rate is lower then the 7-day high from the previous week, then more likely than not, a weekend dip will result and gains of three to five percent are likely.  So the recommended practice was to sell at that time, and buy those bitcoins back over the weekend when the selloff starts to reverse."

The weekend dip indicator hasn't flashed green since May.   That doesn't mean there haven't been dips during the weekend, it just means they original strategy didn't suggest to sell mid-week and buy back over the weekend.    Now there appears to be another pattern where buying on Saturday and selling on Tuesday or so, and do that week after week, seems to be a winning strategy.  So there isn't necessarily a dip occurring over the weekend, but that a rally happens early in the week.

There is always a battle between greed and fear and the weekend dips were oftentimes where fear had the upper hand.  Ever since cash deposit methods have been available even on the weekends now, a weekend decline just doesn't snowball into 10%+ selloffs anymore like they used to.

[dree12]

The Weekend Dip Myth My Ass!

The original weekend dip strategy refers to when there is a downtrend is occurring.     We are not in a downtrend.  

The weekend dip strategy said that: "On Wednesday evening (west)/Thursday morning (east) if the 7-day high for the exchange rate is lower then the 7-day high from the previous week, then more likely than not, a weekend dip will result and gains of three to five percent are likely.  So the recommended practice was to sell at that time, and buy those bitcoins back over the weekend when the selloff starts to reverse."

The weekend dip indicator hasn't flashed green since May.   That doesn't mean there haven't been dips during the weekend, it just means they original strategy didn't suggest to sell mid-week and buy back over the weekend.    Now there appears to be another pattern where buying on Saturday and selling on Tuesday or so, and do that week after week, seems to be a winning strategy.  So there isn't necessarily a dip occurring over the weekend, but that a rally happens early in the week.

There is always a battle between greed and fear and the weekend dips were oftentimes where fear had the upper hand.  Ever since cash deposit methods have been available even on the weekends now, a weekend decline just doesn't snowball into 10%+ selloffs anymore like they used to.

Prices are highest on Fridays, and now the disease is catching on to Saturday. Buy after the weekend dip on Tuesday and sell before it on Friday/Saturday.