bernard75
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Activity: 1316
Merit: 1003
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October 27, 2013, 02:22:26 AM |
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I think its really great so a bump from me too.
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 07, 2013, 06:43:48 PM |
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I think its really great so a bump from me too.
Thanks! Another premium-only email was just released. |
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 12:09:18 AM |
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Thought I'd bump this thread again in case there is anyone interested.
Also, an important premium-only update was just released. Happy trading everyone!
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N12
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Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
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November 21, 2013, 12:15:55 AM |
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lindatess
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November 21, 2013, 12:25:13 AM |
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Waveaddict, what do you think the implications of a U.S. taper will have on the value of bitcoin?
Asset prices are falling, Gold, Stockmarkets are falling. Bond Yields are rising sharply.
Bullard came out and said there will be a taper. Bernanke quoted indirectly that a taper was coming.
U.S. debt is being reduced to serviceable levels. Government programs are being cut in the U.S. Defence spending down 30%. Food stamps being cut and more.
Looks like we will all be praising the central banks for reducing dollar money supply whilst bitcoin's supply keeps growing as people mine more.
It's all relative, but it looks like a good time to short bitcoin, either through lending schemes or funds like bitcoin investment trust.
Anyone up for some activist investing?
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notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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November 21, 2013, 12:26:56 AM |
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Waveaddict, what do you think the implications of a U.S. taper will have on the value of bitcoin?
Asset prices are falling, Gold, Stockmarkets are falling. Bond Yields are rising sharply.
Bullard came out and said there will be a taper. Bernanke quoted indirectly that a taper was coming.
U.S. debt is being reduced to serviceable levels. Government programs are being cut in the U.S. Defence spending down 30%. Food stamps being cut and more.
Looks like we will all be praising the central banks for reducing dollar money supply whilst bitcoin's supply keeps growing as people mine more.
It's all relative, but it looks like a good time to short bitcoin, either through lending schemes or funds like bitcoin investment trust.
Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin. |
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lindatess
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November 21, 2013, 12:35:51 AM |
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Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin.
Even if you don't short, the fact that dollars are worth more after tapering will lead people to not pay as much for a bitcoin. Dollars would purchase more of other assets. It's going to be problem regardless, but I think one of the large hedge funds dumped a lot of BTC yesterday. I saw an order for a 30,000 BTC sell yesterday. Right after the FOMC minutes came out... Co-incidence? The USD is rising in value against many major western currencies such as the AUD and CAD and GBP... |
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NamelessOne
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Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
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November 21, 2013, 12:41:54 AM |
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Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin.
Even if you don't short, the fact that dollars are worth more after tapering will lead people to not pay as much for a bitcoin. Dollars would purchase more of other assets. It's going to be problem regardless, but I think one of the large hedge funds dumped a lot of BTC yesterday. I saw an order for a 30,000 BTC sell yesterday. Right after the FOMC minutes came out... Co-incidence? The USD is rising in value against many major western currencies such as the AUD and CAD and GBP... You likely saw the gox API glitch caused by a 10k sell. The API repeated the information like a loop for quite sometime making it look like far more was being sold than actually was. |
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lindatess
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November 21, 2013, 12:46:32 AM |
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You likely saw the gox API glitch caused by a 10k sell. The API repeated the information like a loop for quite sometime making it look like far more was being sold than actually was.
Ouch, that's still quite a lot... Looks like 1/3 of SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust or another huge fund. That means more selling may come. |
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NamelessOne
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Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
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November 21, 2013, 12:51:37 AM |
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You likely saw the gox API glitch caused by a 10k sell. The API repeated the information like a loop for quite sometime making it look like far more was being sold than actually was.
Ouch, that's still quite a lot... Looks like 1/3 of SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust or another huge fund. That means more selling may come. There are actually plenty of people with that many coins so no way to be sure. I don't think it would be SecondMarket, at least not their customers/clients as they have a no sell rule until next summer I believe. |
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 01:34:04 AM |
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Waveaddict, what do you think the implications of a U.S. taper will have on the value of bitcoin?
Asset prices are falling, Gold, Stockmarkets are falling. Bond Yields are rising sharply.
Bullard came out and said there will be a taper. Bernanke quoted indirectly that a taper was coming.
U.S. debt is being reduced to serviceable levels. Government programs are being cut in the U.S. Defence spending down 30%. Food stamps being cut and more.
Looks like we will all be praising the central banks for reducing dollar money supply whilst bitcoin's supply keeps growing as people mine more.
It's all relative, but it looks like a good time to short bitcoin, either through lending schemes or funds like bitcoin investment trust.
Anyone up for some activist investing?
From a fundamental point of view, a taper would push US treasury yields higher along with the US dollar. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar should pull the US stock market lower. Because bitcoin generally follows the overall trend of the US stock market, bitcoin should continue lower as well in this scenario. Although a lot of you guys believe that bitcoin is somehow different and excluded from overall risk trends, if the overall speculative environment turns bearish (the US stock market is an excellent barometer for risk-taking), bitcoin is going to suffer because bitcoin is undeniably a risky investment which people flee from during bear markets. From a technical point of view, I would be doing a disservice to my subscribers if I elaborated. |
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MoonShadow
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Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
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November 21, 2013, 01:40:06 AM |
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From a fundamental point of view, a taper would push US treasury yields higher along with the US dollar. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar should pull the US stock market lower. Because bitcoin generally follows the overall trend of the US stock market, bitcoin should continue lower as well in this scenario. Although a lot of you guys believe that bitcoin is somehow different and excluded from overall risk trends, if the overall speculative environment turns bearish (the US stock market is an excellent barometer for risk-taking), bitcoin is going to suffer because bitcoin is undeniably a risky investment which people flee from during bear markets.
Is this perspective still true if Chinese speculators maintain a higher overall demand than US speculators? Or would the souring of the US outlook undermine the Chinese speculation as well? |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 02:06:17 AM |
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From a fundamental point of view, a taper would push US treasury yields higher along with the US dollar. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar should pull the US stock market lower. Because bitcoin generally follows the overall trend of the US stock market, bitcoin should continue lower as well in this scenario. Although a lot of you guys believe that bitcoin is somehow different and excluded from overall risk trends, if the overall speculative environment turns bearish (the US stock market is an excellent barometer for risk-taking), bitcoin is going to suffer because bitcoin is undeniably a risky investment which people flee from during bear markets.
Is this perspective still true if Chinese speculators maintain a higher overall demand than US speculators? Or would the souring of the US outlook undermine the Chinese speculation as well? The souring of a US outlook would almost certainly spill over into the Chinese market. The world is just too interconnected now for a US market downturn to not negatively effect the rest of the world because of how important the US economy is to the rest of the world. The crash of 2008 is an obvious example. The fact that the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC) has been in a vicious bear market since 2007 (unlike the West) actually undermines the idea that the Chinese are willing or able to overtake US demand in something as risky as bitcoin if the US begins selling en-masse. In short, because the Chinese are in a risk-adverse environment because of their bear market, they are far less willing to take part in risky behavior compared to the US which has been in a bull market. |
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 09:01:27 PM |
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Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin.
I would have to agree unless you have very tight stops in place...and even then a stop doesn't protect you if the price gaps up. There is an old adage about never attempting to catch a falling knife (buying during a collapse); the same can be said about trying to stop a rocket (shorting during a bubble). Although you may ultimately be right, unless you have deep pockets and are willing and able to hold through a vicious bubble continuation, you will be forced to buy/cover at a loss only to see the trend reverse in your favor. There is a reason why a trader's best friend is a trend. A lot of perma-bears got slaughtered during the dotcom bubble in much the same way that perma-bulls got slaughtered during its ultimate collapse...the reason: both groups ultimately rationalized their viewpoints and married their trades instead of trading what was in front of them with proper risk management steps. |
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myself
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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November 21, 2013, 09:26:05 PM |
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WA what have more upside gold, silver or bitcoin  |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 09:53:05 PM |
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WA what have more upside gold, silver or bitcoin Bitcoin...clearly (especially if the stock market continues rallying). The only problem is that bitcoin isn't a sure thing like gold and silver which will never go to zero and will almost certainly head higher longer term. Right now bitcoin is purely a speculative beast unlike gold and silver which have weathered the test of time. In other words, I can't guarantee (no one can) that bitcoin will be around in ten or twenty years unlike gold and silver. Also, I wouldn't really compare bitcoin with gold and silver because bitcoin follows risk trends far more than gold and silver. Although a lot of doomsday-inflation-bugs believe that bitcoin is similar to gold and silver, it isn't. If it was, they would trend together. They may in the future if bitcoin becomes an actual store of value, but right now, it's basically a high beta speculative asset. |
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bitcoinpsftp
Member
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Activity: 84
Merit: 10
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November 21, 2013, 09:55:13 PM |
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Here's hoping that this high beta speculative test turns us all into millionaires !!! But it does have enough similarities to gold to be able to use it similarly in theory at least to protect from inflation and such.
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waveaddict (OP)
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November 21, 2013, 10:10:45 PM |
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Here's hoping that this high beta speculative test turns us all into millionaires !!! But it does have enough similarities to gold to be able to use it similarly in theory at least to protect from inflation and such.
In theory...yes. But, as on now, there is just no evidence that it is an inflation hedge. A big reason why gold and silver have fallen for the past two years is because the US dollar has risen in value. The fact that bitcoin has continued rallying doesn't exactly help its inflation-hedge case. Regardless, bitcoin has enormous potential, and I'm in no way bashing it. It could after all change the world and make a lot of people very rich in the process. On the other hand, it is by no means a sure thing. It is probably just as likely or more so that a lot of people will lose a lot of money in bitcoin. Time will tell. I would just stress that no one should ever invest what they cannot afford to lose in bitcoin. |
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MoonShadow
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Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
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November 21, 2013, 10:34:54 PM |
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A big reason why gold and silver have fallen for the past two years is because the US dollar has risen in value. The fact that bitcoin has continued rallying doesn't exactly help its inflation-hedge case.
The very fact that Bitcoin is, by it's nature, completely detacted from any fiat currency is the long and short of it's inflation-hedge case. Cans of soup are an inflation hedge. Bitcoin's strong growth phase must eventually level off, but where that mature level actually might end up is anyone's guess. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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waveaddict (OP)
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December 07, 2013, 09:33:58 PM |
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Thought I'd bump this thread again because of the latest crash.
In short, the recent run up since $266 and crash were nearly textbook technical analysis (TA) if you knew what you were doing. So, profiting from the bubble and getting out before the crash was relatively easy.
If anyone is interested in learning how to chart & trade bitcoin, while obtaining a greater understanding of larger markets, I'm always taking on new subscribers.
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