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Author Topic: [GLBSE] PureMining: Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond  (Read 34909 times)
stochastic
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June 20, 2012, 07:16:45 PM
 #141

I've been asked about bulk/presale discounts. I'm not a fan of these things but I guess it couldn't hurt if done modestly and openly. So here are the terms:

1. Out of the 5000 bonds currently issued, up to 3000 are elligible for preordering.
2. Preorder must be at least 500 bonds.
3. Discount will be 2%. The actual price will be determined and disclosed when the bonds are offered publicly.
4. Preordered bonds will start to be delivered after bonds are publicly put on sale.
5. The preorder agreement isn't binding for either party. The buyer can cancel the order if he's unhappy with the price or for any other reason. I can also back out of the deal, but will only do that with a good reason.
6. If more bonds are preordered than available, buyers will be put on a waiting list. Bonds will be offered to buyers who are still interested in the order they requested the preorder.
7. Preorder request can be done by either posting in this thread or sending a PM.

I think there should be a required amount of time to hold the bonds if someone pre-orders them.  Otherwise they might just resell the at your IPO and you would then be in competition with the preordered bonds and the new ones you are releasing.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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June 20, 2012, 07:37:51 PM
 #142

I will issue 5000 more bonds early next week.

The price will be somewhat lower than the last issue, to account for hardware advances and the increase in the BTC exchange rate, both of which mean that more hashrate can be bought per bitcoin.

I wonder if you already paid your current bond holders enough on dividends, so they don't go into loss when you will be pushing market price down while issuing more of these bonds at lower price. I don't hold any of these bonds, just curious.  Grin
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June 21, 2012, 03:48:03 AM
 #143

I think there should be a required amount of time to hold the bonds if someone pre-orders them.  Otherwise they might just resell the at your IPO and you would then be in competition with the preordered bonds and the new ones you are releasing.
There is no way to enforce this. I've added a clause saying this is not an intended use case.

I will issue 5000 more bonds early next week.

The price will be somewhat lower than the last issue, to account for hardware advances and the increase in the BTC exchange rate, both of which mean that more hashrate can be bought per bitcoin.

I wonder if you already paid your current bond holders enough on dividends, so they don't go into loss when you will be pushing market price down while issuing more of these bonds at lower price. I don't hold any of these bonds, just curious.  Grin
I make an effort to preserve investor value, but there is absolutely no guarantee that the bond will produce a net profit over its lifetime. The market conditions change and the bond price will adapt, whether I'm issuing new bonds or not.

I'm handling this in the fairest way I know and it's impossible to please everyone. If I price it too high I may end up stuck with bonds nobody wants to buy (and lowering the price then would be even more problematic). If I announce a new price without any waiting period there will be resentment among people who have recently bought for higher. By being vague I'm giving people an opportunity to reassess their evaluation and act accordingly - but those people can end up unpleasantly surprised if the issue price turns out to be higher than they expected.

Two important events have happened since the last issue: BTC appreciation to the $6.5 level, and BFL's announcement of their planned ASIC pricing - which should be taken with a good serving of salt, but is still edible.

Anyway, to more directly answer your question - the total coupons paid per bond so far is 0.076534754 BTC (not including errors and compensation). So whether this is a profit or loss really depends on how long one has held the bond and how much he paid for it. The highest price the bonds were offered by me (correcting for compensation) is 0.4 BTC.

It also depends if you're looking at the profit of holding bonds compared to holding BTC or holding USD. Compared to USD I think it will be a profit for everyone who bought from me. BTC price affects the difficulty which affects the BTC price of a mining bond, so the position of holding a mining bond is positive but still lower than directly holding BTC, so people should expect not to profit as much from a BTC rally as if they were holding BTC.

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June 22, 2012, 08:26:35 AM
 #144

I have decided to take a more active role in ensuring the stability of the PureMining traded price, by placing a bid of 1000 bonds at 0.3 BTC.

I do not commit to keeping it active forever, but I will make an effort not to change this bid without a week of prior notice.

If the bid gets executed I may replenish it at my discretion.

Hopefully this should prevent low-volume selling from drastically affecting the price, which could prevent the fear of a panic sell from fulfilling itself. Ideally, the bid needn't be executed at all - it would inspire enough confidence in the bond value that people will place their own higher bids.

Going forward I will consider using the bot I'm developing for POLY to act as a more active market maker for PureMining, offering tighter spreads for buyers and sellers. One problem is that GLBSE's fee structure makes it technically more difficult to be a market maker.

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June 23, 2012, 04:51:08 PM
 #145

I have decided to take a more active role in ensuring the stability of the PureMining traded price, by placing a bid of 1000 bonds at 0.3 BTC.

Thank you
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June 24, 2012, 09:37:18 AM
 #146

I have issued 5000 new bonds. They are offered at 0.28 BTC each.


Most of us have heard about Butterfly Labs' announcement of an ASIC unit coming in October, producing 1 TH/s at a cost of $30K.

When I started PureMining what I had in mind was a world where mining equipment performance grows at a steady and more or less predictable rate as new technologies are developed and enter the market. The eventual advent of dedicated ASIC products was of course no secret, but I always assumed a gradual pricing strategy. People would know how much hashrate they can get for their bitcoin, and would rather substitute physical hardware purchase with a deterministic bond investment that would remove the hassle and shift some of the risks to those in the best position to evaluate them.

I did not envision a company offering a product that overnight vigintuples the available price/performance, much less a trade-in program that renders the hashrate of one company infungible with the hashrate of another company. In this scenario a deterministic bond is much less directly entangled with the underlying hardware, and much more reminiscent of a speculative instrument.

Once the dust settles PureMining will once again shine in the role it was intended for. For now there is uncertainty about BFL's ability to deliver on their promise, and given this there is no logically obvious way to price the bonds. I do however wish to increase the total count to 20000, a nice round number which matches my current capacity. I am offering new bonds at 0.28 BTC, a price which acknowledges the recent depression in the mining bond market on one hand, but avoids excessive devaluation of current investors' holdings on the other. If you believe BFL will deliver a product with the stated specifications, on time, and with sufficient production capacity, you should not buy the bond at this price. If you have no such belief you are welcome to consider this offer. I will not offer bonds at a lower price until the ASIC situation becomes clearer.

Personally I do intend to try to take advantage of BFL's trade-in program, and I may consider offering a complementary asset to those who do want to invest in its ASIC equipment.

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June 24, 2012, 12:12:55 PM
 #147

Personally I do intend to try to take advantage of BFL's trade-in program, and I may consider offering a complementary asset to those who do want to invest in its ASIC equipment.
That should confuse people who don't know the difference between complementary and complimentary!  Wink

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July 06, 2012, 02:42:01 PM
 #148

Coupon payment summary for June 2012 (total 0.01934658 BTC per bond):
Code:
Block number Timestamp        Timestamp (Unix) Elapsed time Difficulty Block reward Coupon    Bonds Total      Status
186815    Jun 29 2012 21:39:24  1341005964          203520    1726566.55919 50        0.0013722521 20000 27.4450420 Paid
186479    Jun 27 2012 13:07:24  1340802444          190252    1726566.55919 50        0.0012827914 20000 25.6558280 Paid
186143    Jun 25 2012 08:16:32  1340612192          192041    1726566.55919 50        0.0012948539 20000 25.8970780 Paid
185807    Jun 23 2012 02:55:51  1340420151          211481    1726566.55919 50        0.0014259299 15000 21.3889485 Paid
185471    Jun 20 2012 16:11:10  1340208670          182860    1583177.84744 50        0.0013446187 15000 20.1692805 Paid
185135    Jun 18 2012 13:23:30  1340025810          177791    1583177.84744 50        0.0013073450 15000 19.6101750 Paid
184799    Jun 16 2012 12:00:19  1339848019          184346    1583177.84744 50        0.0013555457 15000 20.3331855 Paid
184463    Jun 14 2012 08:47:53  1339663673          191909    1583177.84744 50        0.0014111585 15000 21.1673775 Paid
184127    Jun 12 2012 03:29:24  1339471764          189299    1583177.84744 50        0.0013919664 15000 20.8794960 Paid
183791    Jun 09 2012 22:54:25  1339282465          183801    1583177.84744 50        0.0013515381 15000 20.2730715 Paid
183455    Jun 07 2012 19:51:04  1339098664          197893    1591074.96185 50        0.0014479379 15000 21.7190685 Paid
183119    Jun 05 2012 12:52:51  1338900771          197285    1591074.96185 50        0.0014434893 10000 14.4348930 Paid
182783    Jun 03 2012 06:04:46  1338703486          183962    1591074.96185 50        0.0013460079 10000 13.4600790 Paid
182447    Jun 01 2012 02:58:44  1338519524          214732    1591074.96185 50        0.0015711450 10000 15.7114500 Paid

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July 08, 2012, 05:03:45 AM
 #149

Coupon payment summary for June 2012 (total 0.01934658 BTC per bond):
Do you mine solo, or do you use a pool ?
Inaba is in charge of these decisions. I don't believe he's mining solo. Of course this has no effect on the coupons paid.

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August 02, 2012, 06:05:38 PM
 #150

Coupon payment summary for July 2012 (total 0.017129391 BTC per bond):
Code:
Block number Timestamp        Timestamp (Unix) Elapsed time Difficulty Block reward Coupon    Bonds Total      Status
191519    Jul 30 2012 10:53:56  1343645636          172741    1866391.30500 50        0.0010774643 20000 21.5492860 Paid
191183    Jul 28 2012 10:54:55  1343472895          171117    1866391.30500 50        0.0010673346 20000 21.3466920 Paid
190847    Jul 26 2012 11:22:58  1343301778          177745    1866391.30500 50        0.0011086765 20000 22.1735300 Paid
190511    Jul 24 2012 10:00:33  1343124033          192874    1866391.30500 50        0.0012030429 20000 24.0608580 Paid
190175    Jul 22 2012 04:25:59  1342931159          202379    1866391.30500 50        0.0012623299 20000 25.2465980 Paid
189839    Jul 19 2012 20:13:00  1342728780          191829    1866391.30500 50        0.0011965248 20000 23.9304960 Paid
189503    Jul 17 2012 14:55:51  1342536951          191514    1751454.53534 50        0.0012729513 20000 25.4590260 Paid
189167    Jul 15 2012 09:43:57  1342345437          179959    1751454.53534 50        0.0011961478 20000 23.9229560 Paid
188831    Jul 13 2012 07:44:38  1342165478          203218    1751454.53534 50        0.0013507452 20000 27.0149040 Paid
188495    Jul 10 2012 23:17:40  1341962260          183059    1751454.53534 50        0.0012167528 20000 24.3350560 Paid
188159    Jul 08 2012 20:26:41  1341779201          181850    1751454.53534 50        0.0012087169 20000 24.1743380 Paid
187823    Jul 06 2012 17:55:51  1341597351          195975    1751454.53534 50        0.0013026026 20000 26.0520520 Paid
187487    Jul 04 2012 11:29:36  1341401376          186253    1726566.55919 50        0.0012558278 20000 25.1165560 Paid
187151    Jul 02 2012 07:45:23  1341215123          209159    1726566.55919 50        0.0014102736 20000 28.2054720 Paid

I have recalled 4000 bonds I have left which are unlikely to be sold before the ASIC dust settles.

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August 21, 2012, 11:55:31 PM
 #151

Does Puremining use GPUMAX?
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August 22, 2012, 03:59:48 AM
 #152

Does Puremining use GPUMAX?
I don't think so. I'm giving Inaba the freedom to choose where to direct the hashrate, and I wouldn't really mind if he did, but my understanding is that he doesn't currently use GPUMAX.

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August 22, 2012, 01:59:13 PM
 #153

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...

but ill keep my 193 shares (mining till i get 200, then saving up the btc Tongue)

its a nice bond that pays every 2-3 days instead of weekly, so less price variance because payment is coming in
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August 22, 2012, 02:41:16 PM
 #154

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

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August 24, 2012, 01:35:29 AM
 #155

Trading at 0.058 now... just snagged some at 0.08.

Thats about a 4.75%/w yield (1000% APR)...
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August 24, 2012, 01:39:53 AM
 #156

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

Are you going to offer an ASIC related bond ?

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August 24, 2012, 03:58:42 AM
 #157

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

Are you going to offer an ASIC related bond ?
Possibly.

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August 26, 2012, 01:51:21 AM
 #158

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

Are you going to offer an ASIC related bond ?
Possibly.

Out of shareholder interest; would you consider a program which allowed PUREMINING bonds to be upgraded into the ASIC bonds at a discount relative to purchasing the new ASIC issuance on the open market? Any form of a program such as that would definitely instill investor confidence for the long term.
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August 26, 2012, 03:16:46 PM
 #159

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

Are you going to offer an ASIC related bond ?
Possibly.
Out of shareholder interest; would you consider a program which allowed PUREMINING bonds to be upgraded into the ASIC bonds at a discount relative to purchasing the new ASIC issuance on the open market? Any form of a program such as that would definitely instill investor confidence for the long term.
I'm sure it will have a long-term effect. Just not what I think of as a positive effect. I have spoken at some length here and elsewhere about my vision for PureMining, which is to serve as a stepping stone towards a commodity market for hashrate which is independent of any issuer's decisions or a particular hardware brand. This is the only way for mining investments to be efficient in the long run. To offer an upgrade plan will be a step back to a guessing game what will each issuer do.

People need to understand the distinction between the two different investment models. Running a company is safe for the issuer because if anything bad happens he doesn't have to compensate for it out of pocket. This is why he can offer at low prices and share the rewards of good events. But the investors are taking the risk of anything bad happening with the issuer, his equipment or whatever. In the deterministic model, the issuer specifies an exact contract and is bound to fulfill it unconditionally. The investors know exactly what they are getting, and the issuer is taking all the risk. This is why there will be a premium for this. It is not reasonable to expect an unconditional fulfillment and significant bonuses. In the case of mining bonds, investors have but one responsibility - to estimate the future of the price/difficulty ratio; and if they erred in their estimation, it is not reasonable to expect compensation for it. I do not want to create a precedent where investors learn to rely on crutches rather than taking responsibility for their investment decisions.

Even if I were to be convinced to offer such an upgrade, on the grounds that it only slightly taints the deterministic model, it would not be fair to do it now after I have already clarified that no such upgrade will be given and people sold bonds based on this statement.

I want people to do business with me in the future based on my reputation as a man of my word, faithfully honoring the commitments I make (and making an effort to clarify in advance what it is that I am offering). Not on my reputation of handing out freebies.

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August 26, 2012, 03:21:07 PM
 #160

so after the asic's etc arrive this bond is still 1mhash/s?

then it will crash hard in terms of price because other bonds give you 5-20mhash/s after asic trade in programs...
Yes, the bond is deterministic and will remain 1 MH/s, and its value will be significantly lower when ASIC devices with BFL's reported cost-effectiveness become available.

Are you going to offer an ASIC related bond ?
Possibly.
Out of shareholder interest; would you consider a program which allowed PUREMINING bonds to be upgraded into the ASIC bonds at a discount relative to purchasing the new ASIC issuance on the open market? Any form of a program such as that would definitely instill investor confidence for the long term.
I'm sure it will have a long-term effect. Just not what I think of as a positive effect. I have spoken at some length here and elsewhere about my vision for PureMining, which is to serve as a stepping stone towards a commodity market for hashrate which is independent of any issuer's decisions or a particular hardware brand. This is the only way for mining investments to be efficient in the long run. To offer an upgrade plan will be a step back to a guessing game what will each issuer do.

People need to understand the distinction between the two different investment models. Running a company is safe for the issuer because if anything bad happens he doesn't have to compensate for it out of pocket. This is why he can offer at low prices and share the rewards of good events. But the investors are taking the risk of anything bad happening with the issuer, his equipment or whatever. In the deterministic model, the issuer specifies an exact contract and is bound to fulfill it unconditionally. The investors know exactly what they are getting, and the issuer is taking all the risk. This is why there will be a premium for this. It is not reasonable to expect an unconditional fulfillment and significant bonuses. In the case of mining bonds, investors have but one responsibility - to estimate the future of the price/difficulty ratio; and if they erred in their estimation, it is not reasonable to expect compensation for it. I do not want to create a precedent where investors learn to rely on crutches rather than taking responsibility for their investment decisions.

Even if I were to be convinced to offer such an upgrade, on the grounds that it only slightly taints the deterministic model, it would not be fair to do it now after I have already clarified that no such upgrade will be given and people sold bonds based on this statement.

I want people to do business with me in the future based on my reputation as a man of my word, faithfully honoring the commitments I make (and making an effort to clarify in advance what it is that I am offering). Not on my reputation of handing out freebies.

Of course. I did not want to make it sound like investors should have freebies.

Thanks for further rationalizing your thoughts, and I fully understand your position.

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