ask
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Merit: 1004
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October 27, 2014, 07:48:49 AM |
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Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.
So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north?
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myself
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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October 27, 2014, 08:05:07 AM |
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Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.
So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north? i explained this above lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad
for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )
1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive
also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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ask
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1004
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October 27, 2014, 08:13:11 AM |
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Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.
So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north? i explained this above lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad
for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )
1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive
also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive
Thx. So someone is preparing ground for a short squeeze. We will see how this will roll out.
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DaRude
Legendary
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Activity: 2902
Merit: 1914
In order to dump coins one must have coins
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October 27, 2014, 08:13:51 AM |
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Pretty sure this is manipulation. Someone is taking all the btc swap offers but not actually shorting.
So new shorters are not able to open new short positions. Ups. Do i smell direction north? i explained this above lets put some logic to the table and to provide proof why hampering the free market by placing arbitrary rules is bad
for some reason BFX have a 1% cap or soft cap at 1% interest per day in a squeeze scenario the price move is much more above (FRR and all that )
1% at current price is 3,52usd this is the maximum interest to pay for 1 day/btc , in a squeeze scenario does the price more above 3,52 USD/24h ? hell yea so it can be quite profitable so borrow BTC if you are in a long long position just to make the loans BTC loans more expensive
also in a long squeeze scenario it can be quite profitable to borrow USD if you are in a short position just to make USD loans more expensive
Unless he's just accumulating to dump all at once and squeeze longs?
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"Feeeeed me Roger!" -Bcash
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CoolStoryBro
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Activity: 89
Merit: 10
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October 27, 2014, 03:06:03 PM |
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Speaking of manipulation, let's assume that this WhaleMan using these 10k swaps as manipulation tool and not actually used it for dumping,
Then, based on the swap graphs, my wild assumption that his average rate is around 0.11% then we can see how much it costs for that whale to keep up with his manipulation game:
10 000*0.0011 = 11 BTC / day = around 3,9 kUSD /day
Just saying. It's not that super costly for him, considering he need to keep it only 1-3 days.
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windjc
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Merit: 1070
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October 27, 2014, 06:13:03 PM |
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If I were a shorter I'd be scared as hell right now.
Couldn't it be some kind of manipulation? I mean, funds are borrowed, but not used to short yet.
It could be a manipulation. It takes less risk to borrow and to pay only interests instead to open short position. If borrower had intentions to short, he would already done that. But he is aware of the risk so he tries to make bearish sentiment again to close his existing short position. Keep telling yourself that. Heard the same theories when longs were at 200%+ swap. Anything to avoid obvious truth
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BitBits
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October 28, 2014, 01:42:07 AM |
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Total sum of active swaps 16,281.89 BTC
Holy shit.
It is right now at 18.5K and it spiked to 20K earlier. BUT, comparatively speaking this is not that much. It is about 6.5 mln in swaps of shorts vs. currently 22.5 mln in longs. This is far from equal, but things indeed seem to be getting "there" (and healthier). Moreover, I noticed that when market dictates, shorts are a lot more "flexible" in liquidating their positions than "to da moon people" (as someone else put it). So, in order for short squeeze to happen in the manner and scale the longs were squeezed previously, the borrowed BTC value probably should get to a much, much higher values.
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Empty
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Hunyadi
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Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
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October 30, 2014, 08:15:29 PM |
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Total sum of active swaps BTC 11,784.20 BTC
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▂▃▅▇█▓▒░B**-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
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RoadTrain
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
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October 30, 2014, 08:24:50 PM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
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Hunyadi
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Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
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October 30, 2014, 08:42:21 PM |
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Total sum of active swaps BTC 11,784.20 BTC
BTC 12,164.61 BTC
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▂▃▅▇█▓▒░B**-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
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Yololintian
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October 31, 2014, 10:24:54 AM |
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shorts closed, longs opened and.... were almost back to where we started ($335).
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FattyMcButterpants
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November 02, 2014, 04:51:47 AM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position
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RoadTrain
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
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November 02, 2014, 03:22:03 PM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move.
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Hunyadi
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Activity: 1281
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☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
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November 02, 2014, 04:32:23 PM |
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Total sum of active swaps BTC 11,784.20 BTC
BTC 12,164.61 BTC BTC 13,742.21 BTC
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▂▃▅▇█▓▒░B**-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
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leezay
Full Member
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Merit: 100
SWISSREALCOIN - FIRST REAL ESTATE CRYPTO TOKEN
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November 02, 2014, 04:49:32 PM |
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Total sum of active swaps BTC 11,784.20 BTC
BTC 12,164.61 BTC BTC 13,742.21 BTC Sound more like someone is trying to manipulate btc swap rate.
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FattyMcButterpants
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November 02, 2014, 05:48:16 PM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move. Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money.
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RoadTrain
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1009
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November 02, 2014, 07:13:06 PM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move. Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money. Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict. Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up).
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FattyMcButterpants
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November 02, 2014, 10:18:58 PM |
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Massive short covering seems to have happened. Still, 11k is substantial.
This massive amount of short positions is important however we will not see a short squeeze unless we see a major uptick in the price of bitcoin first as people with short positions can simply roll over their short position Any squeeze usually happens only after a major move. So, for a short squeeze we must see a significant move up. But what's important is that the larger the amount of shorts, the more dramatic will be the move. Well, there is another possible, but unlikely way that the shorts could get squeezed: if people who hold long positions (and lend out their bitcoin) were to suddenly stop lending out their bitcoin and withdraw their money to a wallet they control then bitfinex would need to force people who are short bitcoin to cover their short position. This could potentially be caused by a competing exchange (that offers leverage or not) to fail and/or run away with depositor's money. Yep, that's possible, but it's an event that's very hard to predict. Another possible situation where you can get squeezed (also unlikely) is a long sideways trading that doesn't result in any significant price movement. As you're paying to maintain your position, you can run out of margin (especially if rates go to far up). If prices remain sideways for a long time then people will likely naturally close their positions over time (or close only a portion of their position when their margin is too "low"). I would say that it would be likely that one or more of the chinese exchanges will likely implode in the simi-near future as they are likely running some kind of scam (I think they will likely eventually run with customer money). This could potentially cause the kind of short squeeze described above. I am curious to see any kind of data on the swaps from right after gox imploded
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chriswilmer
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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November 13, 2014, 02:47:00 AM |
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Where do we stand now regarding shorts?
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MOB
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November 13, 2014, 04:59:02 AM |
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Bitfinex prices on BTC are $468 right now versus $449 on Bitstamp. Seems a bit odd? Are leveraged bulls really that eager?
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