[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[dreamspark]

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does?

[HardwarePal]

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does?

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

[pandher]

Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

[onemorebtc]

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

its just the same as cash and same regulations will apply (eg passport when buying a car, nothing when buying xxx or drugs)

[drawingthesun]

Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

At the moment we can't really advise merchants to start using Monero because the core code needs a lot of work. Many merchants that may try to use Monero in its current form will likely be turned off forever.

Once the bandwidth and ram issues are sorted, the team will incorporate one of the GUI developments and then Monero will be ready for merchant use.

[luigi1111]

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does?

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. 

[dga]

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does?

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. 

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale.  I don't know of any others who approach that size.

[Its About Sharing]

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does?

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. 

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale.  I don't know of any others who approach that size.

Please elaborate. You think it is an early BTC holder or ?

[HardwarePal]

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

[HardwarePal]

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top XXX, close to top XXX.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.

[rpietila]

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top 20, close to top 10.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.

The only way of having more of large holdings, and preserve statistical credibility (individual holding size is determined from random variables and behaves according to statistical distributions), is to have significantly fewer overall holdings. Such as if there were only 300 Monero investors, it would make sense that every other of them had 10,000. But with 8,000 holders as is now the consensus, the average holding is <300 XMR and the median is <100. Everyone with 10,000 is a whale and this is an undisputable fact.

[statdude]

Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

[fluffypony]

Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

[bobabouey2]

Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

Well, that comment is a perfect excuse to donate another 100XMR to the development fund in accordance with the Monero Community Hall of Fame (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0). 

Thanks greatly to all the developers.

[HardwarePal]

I think this is relevant to post

I am personally doing a small survey about XMR for all the people interested in completing it :

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JqIXkjKpcEpv6lyH6SD22f_Ny0i-rhM9bV21WcOFstw/viewform

I will be posting graphs when I have a large enough data sample.

[Skinnkavaj]

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

[Febo]

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

lol you sure? Would not you like to have more distributed on your part? I would for sure on mine.   

[Skinnkavaj]

Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

[damashup]

Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

Until it's possible exchange Monero for fiat, I don't see the point of these markets. Way too early.

[3x2]

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

i want more  its not perfect yet.