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Author Topic: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game  (Read 292469 times)
dooglus
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November 07, 2014, 04:06:45 AM
 #721

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242962.msg2815837#msg2815837

I'm not sure if that's the specific post you're looking for but most of the discussion about offsite investments took place nearby it.

Thanks. It turns out that it wasn't my idea at all!

hey, dooglus,
if you decide to implement the variable investment rate, can you also make an option to enter
how much I have in my cold storage? This way, I won't have to manually manage the investment,
unless it becomes insufficient.

[...]

Otherwise, if I have to manually manage my investment all the time, the feature will be useless for me, and probably for many others

to which I replied:

I've only just woken up and not had coffee yet, but could this be the answer for people wanting to invest more but put off by the CP risk?

Every user has not just "balance" (for playing with) and "invested" (coins actively in the bankroll) but also a "local" balance, which is coins the user holds themselves, but consider part of the bankroll.  On every roll, the site risks 1% of ("invested" plus "local") for the user.  The user's percentage of the bankroll stays constant, since everyone is risking 1%, and it works fine until "invested" shrinks to less than 1% of "invested" + "local" (since the site then doesn't have access to the 1% they're risking).

This allows players to risk 1% of their whole holdings without having to send their entire holdings to me.  They only need to send 1% plus however much extra they want as a buffer.

It's a shame this doesn't appear to address the issue of people who want to risk less than 1% of their investment, because otherwise it looks like a good solution to me.

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November 07, 2014, 09:55:50 PM
 #722

Your site  so funny
adaseb
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November 07, 2014, 10:19:29 PM
 #723

Yes dont worry just ignore that guy, I actually like this site. It has the same edge but the game is just more thrilling than regular dice.

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dooglus
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November 07, 2014, 10:29:07 PM
 #724

Yes dont worry just ignore that guy, I actually like this site. It has the same edge but the game is just more thrilling than regular dice.

In fact the edge is better than regular dice.

The edge is between 0% and 1% based on your cashout point.

For multiplier M, the house edge is 100*(1 - 0.99*M / (M - 0.01)).

Some examples:

  >>> M=1.1; 100*(1 - 0.99*M / (M - 0.01))
  0.0917%

  >>> M=2; 100*(1 - 0.99*M / (M - 0.01))
  0.5025%

  >>> M=10; 100*(1 - 0.99*M / (M - 0.01))
  0.9009%

  >>> M=100; 100*(1 - 0.99*M / (M - 0.01))
  0.9901%


So at 2x payout the house edge is only 0.5025% compared to 1% at regular dice sites.

Bear in mind though that I haven't taken the bonus scheme into account. On average once in every 101 games the game crashes at 0x and every instantly loses. The bets from those games go to the house and are used to fund the bonus scheme, where on the other 100 out of 101 games a bonus is shared between the players. The total bonus is equal to 1% of all the bets made that round, and goes to the players who cash out successfully last. If you average a 1% bonus then you're getting the house edges I listed above. If you never get a bonus, you need to add about 1.0% to the house edges above. If you're careful, you can get bonuses of 2% or 3%, which result in an overall negative house edge for you.

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November 08, 2014, 11:26:57 AM
 #725

There's also the 1% chance of an instant crash. Losses occured from the insta crash are supposed to be contributed to the bonuses but the precentage of the crash still adds up to the possibility of losing.

So if someone deposits BTC in there with the sole porpuse of betting it all in a single round looking to double his money he'd be betting against a (~)1.5% edge. The bonuses can wipe out the crash precentage on long term runs but obviously don't favor the hit and run tactic. IMO you'd better bet on a dice if you're going to use that playstyle.

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November 08, 2014, 03:28:38 PM
Last edit: November 08, 2014, 07:52:08 PM by RHavar
 #726

There's also the 1% chance of an instant crash. Losses occured from the insta crash are supposed to be contributed to the bonuses but the precentage of the crash still adds up to the possibility of losing.

So if someone deposits BTC in there with the sole porpuse of betting it all in a single round looking to double his money he'd be betting against a (~)1.5% edge. The bonuses can wipe out the crash precentage on long term runs but obviously don't favor the hit and run tactic. IMO you'd better bet on a dice if you're going to use that playstyle.

No, not quite. It's a common misconception that there is some sort of "memory" but none exists. When the game instant crashes (1 in 101) the money goes to the house, not an explicit account for the bonus scheme. This means that house can pay out more in bonuses than it receives from instant crashes. Or conversely, it can collect more from instant crashes than it pays out in bonuses.

The bonus scheme is pure EV0 for the house, but the house does expose itself considerably. Which is good for the players, and bad for the house.

Actually as your bet increases relative to the total amount bet, the closer you bonus approaches 1% regardless of game crash. Which means the effect of the bonus scheme goes away, and your house edge approaches 0.5%. This is because no matter when you cashout you will get a bonus.

So assuming the limits were higher, money pot is pretty much the BEST site I'm aware of to do a YOLO style bet.


Edit: fix incomprehensible grammar
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November 08, 2014, 05:46:16 PM
 #727

There's also the 1% chance of an instant crash.

I addressed that in the last paragraph of the post immediately before yours.

The bonus scheme gives the player an extra 1% EV, and the 0% crashes take off an extra 1%. The two balance out, adding variance, but not affecting expectation.

Actually the bigger your bet is relative bet, the closer you bonus approaches 1% regardless of game crash.

I had a hard time figuring out what you meant there.

My best guess is "your bet is relative to the total bet" - but I'm not sure that's right.

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November 08, 2014, 07:50:10 PM
 #728

My best guess is "your bet is relative to the total bet" - but I'm not sure that's right.

Sorry, that is what I meant indeed. I'll edit the post to clarify
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November 09, 2014, 12:37:51 PM
Last edit: November 09, 2014, 03:15:51 PM by alani123
 #729

Thanks for the clarifications, I am actually aware of the stuff you mentioned but I'll have to admit that I still learned one thing or two since you went in great detail to explain what you said. Maybe me oversimplifying what I was writting about made it seem a bit wrong. I was actually repeating the same thing doog said a post above (just with different words).

So in dooglus' words this time:

If you never get a bonus, you need to add about 1.0% to the house edges above.

And at least in my mind the YOLO style bet can bring you closer to this situation.

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November 09, 2014, 12:59:25 PM
 #730

Your site  so funny
if funny means profit, I like it!

I know why your pray will never be answered!
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November 09, 2014, 05:32:10 PM
 #731



So at 2x payout the house edge is only 0.5025% compared to 1% at regular dice sites.


Do You think that the average gambler would favor a game (not a dice game ) with 0.5% HE? or do You thing he would still favor a dice game even it has a 1% HE?

thanks
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November 09, 2014, 05:35:06 PM
 #732



So at 2x payout the house edge is only 0.5025% compared to 1% at regular dice sites.


Do You think that the average gambler would favor a game (not a dice game ) with 0.5% HE? or do You thing he would still favor a dice game even it has a 1% HE?

thanks

I would guess that the average gambler doesn't care too much about house edge, and is more influenced by softer qualities (nice colours, good design, sound effects, smoothness of play, etc.)

The average *Bitcoin* gambler probably cares more about house edge than the average fiat gambler, but not massively more.

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November 09, 2014, 05:45:24 PM
 #733



So at 2x payout the house edge is only 0.5025% compared to 1% at regular dice sites.


Do You think that the average gambler would favor a game (not a dice game ) with 0.5% HE? or do You thing he would still favor a dice game even it has a 1% HE?

thanks

I would guess that the average gambler doesn't care too much about house edge, and is more influenced by softer qualities (nice colours, good design, sound effects, smoothness of play, etc.)

The average *Bitcoin* gambler probably cares more about house edge than the average fiat gambler, but not massively more.

thanks for Your opinion. there are more fiat gamblers out there than bitcoin gamblers but I like the bitcoin gamblers for now more because they demand to have a Provably Fair option. it would be nice to see in the future fiat casinos providing Provably Fair games Smiley
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November 09, 2014, 06:17:49 PM
 #734

I've mentioned it on the JD thread, and recently I mentioned it on the PD thread. I thought I'd post a picture here just so you don't feel left out:



I'm going to call it Beetle Betting. These insects know how to roll their shit.

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November 11, 2014, 02:39:49 PM
 #735

I would guess that the average gambler doesn't care too much about house edge, and is more influenced by softer qualities (nice colours, good design, sound effects, smoothness of play, etc.)

The average *Bitcoin* gambler probably cares more about house edge than the average fiat gambler, but not massively more.

While people might not care, I suspect it is the biggest factor of how much people play. For two reasons, one: it hugely increases variance for players, which they love. A concrete example: whitetuxpeng might now have lost a lot of money in the pot, but at a time he had a net profit of over well over 30 BTC. I'm sure those are great memories that keep him coming back.

And secondly, I think people recycle their winnings to a huge degree. So in general, I think it would hold that if you half the house edge, people on average would gamble twice as much, by the mere fact they can.
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November 11, 2014, 04:33:13 PM
 #736

I would guess that the average gambler doesn't care too much about house edge, and is more influenced by softer qualities (nice colours, good design, sound effects, smoothness of play, etc.)

The average *Bitcoin* gambler probably cares more about house edge than the average fiat gambler, but not massively more.

If the difference in house edge starts getting into the second decimal of a percentage, then people really don't care.
They just stick to a site if they like it.
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November 11, 2014, 10:18:42 PM
 #737

For all the people interested in the skill aspect, now is a pretty fantastic time to be playing. There's some good competitive play happening with 4 or 5 max-betters, meaning you can get pretty decent bonuses.


Also rather impressively, despite 29,800 BTC being wagered the house is at a loss. It's been a good run for players, to say the least.
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November 11, 2014, 11:33:27 PM
 #738

For all the people interested in the skill aspect, now is a pretty fantastic time to be playing. There's some good competitive play happening with 4 or 5 max-betters, meaning you can get pretty decent bonuses.


Also rather impressively, despite 29,800 BTC being wagered the house is at a loss. It's been a good run for players, to say the least.

Looks like the house profit now returns back to a positive number (just barely though) lol. Smiley

Total Wagered: 29,913,107,507 bits
Players won in cashed: 29,613,027,910 bits ( 99.00% )
Players won in bonuses: 295,272,651 bits ( 0.99% )
Players won in total: 29,908,300,562 bits ( 99.98% )
Our Profit: 4,806,945 bits ( 0.02% )

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November 11, 2014, 11:52:02 PM
 #739

Looks like the house profit now returns back to a positive number (just barely though) lol. Smiley

Which represents about an 8 BTC loss to the players, which drove the miniwhales home for now. There's quite an interesting relationship between how well people are doing and how much they wager. When the site loses money, the volumes go way up. When the site makes money, the volumes way down.
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November 13, 2014, 04:14:56 AM
 #740

Looks like the house profit now returns back to a positive number (just barely though) lol. Smiley

Which represents about an 8 BTC loss to the players, which drove the miniwhales home for now. There's quite an interesting relationship between how well people are doing and how much they wager. When the site loses money, the volumes go way up. When the site makes money, the volumes way down.
I just realized, that a few days back their profits were over 70 btc, and now its so less. Who won most of the coins?
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