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Author Topic: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game  (Read 292470 times)
Minnlo
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March 23, 2015, 02:43:06 PM
 #1581

It is good to set a goal when to cashout but sometimes after I cashout, the chart goes to the moon and I regret my decision.

To cashout early and get some profit is always a better option , no one really knows if the chart actually gonna blow above 1000x or crash before 2x, so to cashout safely and control your greedness is always the best thing to do in gambling

Ironically the only way to beat the house edge is to play strategically to maximize your bonus, in which you need to bet high and cashout late. So in order to have +EV (safe in some sense), you need to play unsafe bets . Tongue

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CryForMeSky
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March 24, 2015, 02:21:18 AM
 #1582



Ironically the only way to beat the house edge is to play strategically to maximize your bonus, in which you need to bet high and cashout late. So in order to have +EV (safe in some sense), you need to play unsafe bets . Tongue

Not true (or ironic).  The median crash point is 1.97x.  So you just need to observe the other large bettors to figure out the optimal way to play each round.  If they cash out over 2x, insta cash out and you'll hit the bonus more often than not.  If they cash out under 2x (most do), you just need to cash out immed after they do.  Since the house edge under 2x is <.5%, and the bonus 'house edge' is .99% (it crashes at 0x 1/101 times), as long as you are averaging a bonus >1.5%, you are playing profitably.  It's very possible to get bonus' 2% and over on the regular cashing out around 1.2-1.5x, depending on how the other players are playing, assuming you bet around the same amount as the largest bettor.
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March 24, 2015, 02:23:35 AM
 #1583



Ironically the only way to beat the house edge is to play strategically to maximize your bonus, in which you need to bet high and cashout late. So in order to have +EV (safe in some sense), you need to play unsafe bets . Tongue

Not true (or ironic).  The median crash point is 1.97x.  So you just need to observe the other large bettors to figure out the optimal way to play each round.  If they cash out over 2x, insta cash out and you'll hit the bonus more often than not.  If they cash out under 2x (most do), you just need to cash out immed after they do.  Since the house edge under 2x is <.5%, and the bonus 'house edge' is .99% (it crashes at 0x 1/101 times), as long as you are averaging a bonus >1.5%, you are playing profitably.  It's very possible to get bonus' 2% and over on the regular cashing out around 1.2-1.5x, depending on how the other players are playing, assuming you bet around the same amount as the largest bettor.
How is this possible? If the median (close to average) crash point is almost doubling your bet, how would they be in profit. The average payout should be 0.98x to have a 2% house edge. Am I missing something?

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March 24, 2015, 02:57:12 AM
 #1584

How is this possible? If the median (close to average) crash point is almost doubling your bet, how would they be in profit. The average payout should be 0.98x to have a 2% house edge. Am I missing something?

I'm not sure what you are missing.  House edge means you get back a little less than what you wagered (over time).  You could set the house edge to anything for any payout, you just adjust the frequency.  According to MP, the house edge (bonus notwithstanding) @ 2x is .5%.  That means that (0x notwithstanding) if you spin 2000 times and set your cashout to 2x every time, you'll expect to successfully cash out 995 times and you'll expect it to crash before you can cashout 1005 times.
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March 24, 2015, 02:59:49 AM
 #1585

How is this possible? If the median (close to average) crash point is almost doubling your bet, how would they be in profit. The average payout should be 0.98x to have a 2% house edge. Am I missing something?

I'm not sure what you are missing.  House edge means you get back a little less than what you wagered (over time).  You could set the house edge to anything for any payout, you just adjust the frequency.  According to MP, the house edge (bonus notwithstanding) @ 2x is .5%.  That means that (0x notwithstanding) if you spin 2000 times and set your cashout to 2x every time, you'll expect to successfully cash out 995 times and you'll expect it to crash before you can cashout 1005 times.
Ok but they said the median was 2x right, meaning you will on average get a payout of 2x. On dice sites, this average is about 0.98 because less than half the time you hit double (2) and more than half the time you hit 0, averaging out about 0.98 with the house edge. So how is the average payout 2x on moneypot?

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March 24, 2015, 03:02:55 AM
 #1586

How is this possible? If the median (close to average) crash point is almost doubling your bet, how would they be in profit. The average payout should be 0.98x to have a 2% house edge. Am I missing something?

I'm not sure what you are missing.  House edge means you get back a little less than what you wagered (over time).  You could set the house edge to anything for any payout, you just adjust the frequency.  According to MP, the house edge (bonus notwithstanding) @ 2x is .5%.  That means that (0x notwithstanding) if you spin 2000 times and set your cashout to 2x every time, you'll expect to successfully cash out 995 times and you'll expect it to crash before you can cashout 1005 times.
Ok but they said the median was 2x right, meaning you will on average get a payout of 2x. On dice sites, this average is about 0.98 because less than half the time you hit double (2) and more than half the time you hit 0, averaging out about 0.98 with the house edge. So how is the average payout 2x on moneypot?

I said "The median crash point is 1.97x." because that was what was told to me when I asked.  Median is similar to average, but not the exact same thing in all situations.

Maybe the way they denote payouts is confusing you?  If you instantly cash out and make a 1% profit, they list that as a '1.01x' multiplier, not a .01x multiplier.
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March 24, 2015, 03:04:51 AM
 #1587

How is this possible? If the median (close to average) crash point is almost doubling your bet, how would they be in profit. The average payout should be 0.98x to have a 2% house edge. Am I missing something?

I'm not sure what you are missing.  House edge means you get back a little less than what you wagered (over time).  You could set the house edge to anything for any payout, you just adjust the frequency.  According to MP, the house edge (bonus notwithstanding) @ 2x is .5%.  That means that (0x notwithstanding) if you spin 2000 times and set your cashout to 2x every time, you'll expect to successfully cash out 995 times and you'll expect it to crash before you can cashout 1005 times.
Ok but they said the median was 2x right, meaning you will on average get a payout of 2x. On dice sites, this average is about 0.98 because less than half the time you hit double (2) and more than half the time you hit 0, averaging out about 0.98 with the house edge. So how is the average payout 2x on moneypot?

I said "The median crash point is 1.97x." because that was what was told to me when I asked.  Median is similar to average, but not the exact same thing in all situations.

Maybe the way they denote payouts is confusing you?  If you instantly cash out and make a 1% profit, they list that as a '1.01x' multiplier, not a .01x multiplier.
Yes I think it is that that is confusing me. I know the difference between media an average but they are very similar and usually not far apart from eachother. I think I understand now. Thank you for clearing this up for me!

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March 24, 2015, 09:25:34 AM
 #1588

bad luck Sad
checkout at 1.1
but crash 1.07 hmm

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March 24, 2015, 12:47:52 PM
 #1589

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

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March 24, 2015, 12:52:28 PM
 #1590



Ironically the only way to beat the house edge is to play strategically to maximize your bonus, in which you need to bet high and cashout late. So in order to have +EV (safe in some sense), you need to play unsafe bets . Tongue

Not true (or ironic).  The median crash point is 1.97x.  So you just need to observe the other large bettors to figure out the optimal way to play each round.  If they cash out over 2x, insta cash out and you'll hit the bonus more often than not.  If they cash out under 2x (most do), you just need to cash out immed after they do.  Since the house edge under 2x is <.5%, and the bonus 'house edge' is .99% (it crashes at 0x 1/101 times), as long as you are averaging a bonus >1.5%, you are playing profitably.  It's very possible to get bonus' 2% and over on the regular cashing out around 1.2-1.5x, depending on how the other players are playing, assuming you bet around the same amount as the largest bettor.

I think one of the more intereseting/attractive things about this game is the supposed ability to "beat the house edge" by playing strategically.  I have to admit I haven't yet looked into what this means in details.  Nevertheless, I appreciate your post cryformesky.  I clearly need to read up on this stuff before I play again.
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March 24, 2015, 01:00:51 PM
 #1591

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
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March 24, 2015, 01:30:48 PM
 #1592

does anyone have a strategy to win playing in moneypot

Yes.
"Brother Patrick" seems to have that good but too long strategy :

Bet 1 : 50 bits, cashed out 1.02
Bet 2 : 250 bits cashed out 1.26
Bet 3 : 16200 bits cashed out 1.02

https://www.moneypot.com/user/Brother_Patrick
https://www.moneypot.com/user/Brother_Patrick?p=6156
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March 24, 2015, 01:50:56 PM
 #1593

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe

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March 24, 2015, 02:32:27 PM
 #1594

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe
this method can really work
i seen only 2 times 0x and 1.01x crashes
but there is always a chance to crash 3 times but good luck with this strategy...but you are only earning dust with this so i wouldent recommend this to anyone


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March 24, 2015, 03:49:17 PM
 #1595

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe
this method can really work
i seen only 2 times 0x and 1.01x crashes
but there is always a chance to crash 3 times but good luck with this strategy...but you are only earning dust with this so i wouldent recommend this to anyone

I've tried it but only managed 3 x subsequently failed

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March 24, 2015, 03:53:59 PM
 #1596

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe
this method can really work
i seen only 2 times 0x and 1.01x crashes
but there is always a chance to crash 3 times but good luck with this strategy...but you are only earning dust with this so i wouldent recommend this to anyone

I've tried it but only managed 3 x subsequently failed
but with 3x , you could not get back the amount you lost previous

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March 24, 2015, 05:09:27 PM
 #1597

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe
this method can really work
i seen only 2 times 0x and 1.01x crashes
but there is always a chance to crash 3 times but good luck with this strategy...but you are only earning dust with this so i wouldent recommend this to anyone

I've tried it but only managed 3 x subsequently failed
but with 3x , you could not get back the amount you lost previous

this is actually a good strategy, but the minus is you will need 1 btc + balance and even if you win, you can only get a little btc, it will takes like 24hours just to get less than 0.1 btc, so if you got patient, you can try this strategy
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March 24, 2015, 05:14:26 PM
 #1598

but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe

That's not really intelligent thinking.  Crashing 3x @ 0x or 1x has a likelihood of happening of ~.00077% of the time (I believe).  Or once every 130,000 times.  So, on average, 129,999 times you'll win 1 or 0 and 1 time you'll lose 1,010,100.  Doesn't seem like a good gamble.

And realistically, does it make sense to bet 1,000,000 in order to win 1?  On anything?
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March 24, 2015, 05:16:09 PM
 #1599

I think I will try with this stragety : bet 100 bits cash out at 1.01x , if loss increase bet by 100x , with max bet in round 3 ( if lose in two rounds before ) is 1BTC . Any one think it will get profit Tongue

this is actually a bad strategy, as there is always a chance to actually crash below 1.01x constinuously and the risk is far greater than what you earn using this strategy

100 x 1.01 = 1 bits

10,000 x 1.01 = 100 bits

1,000,000 x 1.01 = 10,000 bits

the second and third chance will be that you actually try to win back your bet amount, and each win at the first chance will only net you 1 bits which is 100 satoshis, but once you lose, you risk a greater amount than what you earned using the strategy
but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe
this method can really work
i seen only 2 times 0x and 1.01x crashes
but there is always a chance to crash 3 times but good luck with this strategy...but you are only earning dust with this so i wouldent recommend this to anyone

I've tried it but only managed 3 x subsequently failed
but with 3x , you could not get back the amount you lost previous

this is actually a good strategy, but the minus is you will need 1 btc + balance and even if you win, you can only get a little btc, it will takes like 24hours just to get less than 0.1 btc, so if you got patient, you can try this strategy
You can call it 'faucet strategy' and it is nothing really that awesome. Since you are gaining so little and you need a lot of time to pull it out.


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March 24, 2015, 05:18:11 PM
 #1600

but , I have never seen game crash below 1.01 in 3 rounds continuous , so I think it will safe

That's not really intelligent thinking.  Crashing 3x @ 0x or 1x has a likelihood of happening of ~.00077% of the time (I believe).  Or once every 130,000 times.  So, on average, 129,999 times you'll win 1 or 0 and 1 time you'll lose 1,010,100.  Doesn't seem like a good gamble.

And realistically, does it make sense to bet 1,000,000 in order to win 1?  On anything?

doesnt make any sense at all, I will actually bet 1 btc on the first and make 1.01 chance and get 0.01, withdraw it safely and cash it to money, repeat it the next day for a month  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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