[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

A short squeeze now would probably take us to 004 in minutes.  Won't happen though, because it would be against the interest of our large accumulator.  The offer of 100, then 500 BTC was an attempt to lure liquidity.  Probably te is converting a few hundreds of BTC to XMR.  If a squeeze started (identified by parabolic movement) te would be well advised to sell some at a gain, and perhaps add an accumulation wall.  (Although any whale competitor might take the wall, so that is risky - you don't want to end up competing and chasing price up.) Getting low prices by crashing the coin with a short squeeze and panic selling would do long-term damage to the coin.  If you are hedging your BTC, you definitely do not want that.  Our whale has demonstrated strong risk aversion by making large open bids quite deep in the book.

Most likely there is one person who is willing to take a week or two to convert 300-500 BTC.    By adding green bars and subtracting red bars you get a rough estimate of their progress.  If the resulting price momentum captures a lot of little fish in the whale's wake, we will get more BTC flowing in, maybe doubling the fuel for the rise.  I would guess this ends after 1000 BTC net imbalance is accommodated by XMR coming into the exchange.  If you had access to poloniex data you could pin the ending price within a ~5% range.

OTOH if the whale is shorting ETH right now, their fuel supply might be growing.

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[inca]

If we squeak past 0.0041 things could get interesting..

[explorer]

If we squeak past 0.0041 things could get interesting..

2016 new high price... nice.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think things will get interesting when XMR starts to have a strong support at ATH... That's pretty much a launch for a bull market (breaking previous ATH is needed for a legitimate long term bull market). If that's done, nobody really knows how high Monero will end up eventually, and it will attract also people outside to start buying coins with fiat.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I put around 300 XMR at 0.900 % and once again it was taken... 

[explorer]

I put around 300 XMR at 0.900 % and once again it was taken...  

Ya crazy. I've got stuff out at 1.5% still.  closed.  1.00 still racking them up though  

140K offered now

[nioc]

I think things will get interesting when XMR starts to have a strong support at ATH... That's pretty much a launch for a bull market (breaking previous ATH is needed for a legitimate long term bull market). If that's done, nobody really knows how high Monero will end up eventually, and it will attract also people outside to start buying coins with fiat.

You know the ATH was just over 0.01 during the pre MintPal pump.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think things will get interesting when XMR starts to have a strong support at ATH... That's pretty much a launch for a bull market (breaking previous ATH is needed for a legitimate long term bull market). If that's done, nobody really knows how high Monero will end up eventually, and it will attract also people outside to start buying coins with fiat.

You know the ATH was just over 0.01 during the pre MintPal pump.

That's right. I sold in that pump the coins I initially bought in late May/early June 2014. I think that pump was the only moment I had like 0 XMR, after that I sold and rebought several times but not all-in/all-out style.

[aminorex]

I think things will get interesting when XMR starts to have a strong support at ATH... That's pretty much a launch for a bull market (breaking previous ATH is needed for a legitimate long term bull market). If that's done, nobody really knows how high Monero will end up eventually, and it will attract also people outside to start buying coins with fiat.

You know the ATH was just over 0.01 during the pre MintPal pump.

I consider that noise.  The listing spike is too anomalous to be considered part of the same dynamical system - and too long ago, in the high speed world of alts.  Anyone who still owns coins from that range is an infinite horizon investor, and their coins don't move until they want a yacht or an island somewhere.

[smoothie]

I am still freaked out by the total volume in alts. Does it not seem fishy to anybody else?

I'm willing to accept the premise that it seems to be flowing from ETH as that dump continues. But if you look back to January 1st, the total market cap in alts has gone from less than a billion to more than $1.5 billion. That's a 30%+ jump and it's more than $500 million in new money.

Where is THAT coming from...and WHY? That's a pretty big reallocation of capital, but from where? Doesn't seem like it could be hedge funds and other financial players because Central banks are in stimulus mode.

A lot of that is out of thin air. Just because marketcap goes up 500 million does not mean 500 million was invested. The value was created from a much smaller amount of money being used to push prices up. In fact a lot of altcoins are premined so hard that the founders can push the marketcap to millions of dollars with only a few thousand dollars worth of investment.  It's pretty artificial.

This.

I think it's reasonable to assume that the big FUD storm regarding bitcoin blocksize had made more bitcoiners interested in diversifying into altcoins, I've notice a trend of high profile bitcoin figures voicing support for various altcoins or jumping on the BTC FUD train.

"FUD train" is a bit dismissive and papers over the fact that for the first time, Bitcoin is meaningfully handing key use-cases to alts. Core's roadmap that clearly has no regard for keeping on-chain fees as cheap as possible for as long as possible, is opening the door for alts to satisfy the demand for secure & cheap transactions. Further, Core stonewalling the community, and stagnating development that's actually meaningful to users is scary.

Thus, the key thesis that Bitcoin can and will adapt when necessary, and/or adopt innovations from alt-coins (adaptive blocksize anyone?) when it's clearly advantageous to do so, is now empirically in question.

So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.

The problem with bitcoin adopting an adaptive block size limit is that bitcoin will need a tail-emission otherwise in the end bitcoin will not work with an adaptive block size mechanism solely.

The way I see it the only way that will happen is:

1. THe bitcoin community gets their shit together and can agree on a path forward.

AND

2. An adaptive block size is implemented into bitcoin also with a tail emission (which will break the social contract of the hard limit of 21,000,000 BTC total).

[aminorex]

For a large accumulator, the goal should be smooth sublinear price response.  You can't help but level up the market, but you can avoid giving market makers the opportunity to recycle coins with volatility.  There is no point in buying the same coins twice, as it were, so supporting and resisting price moves is helpful.  The more time you take to buy, the shallower your limit slope can be.

[bitjedi]

For a large accumulator, the goal should be smooth sublinear price response.  You can't help but level up the market, but you can avoid giving market makers the opportunity to recycle coins with volatility.  There is no point in buying the same coins twice, as it were, so supporting and resisting price moves is helpful.  The more time you take to buy, the shallower your limit slope can be.

nah, just buy, then let the market fall off, then buy again.  scary to short markets where u don't know if the buys are on margin or not.  good price volatility attracts buys and sells on both sides and gives you big walls to eat or sell into either way.  slow and steady is boooring if you are a playful whale.

[smoothie]

[inca]

Up up and away. And as is so often the case, my only regret is buying so little

[25hashcoin]

Moonero 

[Sukovsky]

Lol @ countdowns. How to give your coin more of a pump and dump reputation.

[meme magic]

Almost a month at .1 interest with 1300 xmr.  30+.  Can't help but wonder what this guy's endgame is.  He's had a chance to sell.  

Im guessing this is the same fella that intends to pay me 80 xmr by now, more when the terms up. Guessing the accounts not been liquidated, so im hoping for the best.

[smoothie]

Lol @ countdowns. How to give your coin more of a pump and dump reputation.

Your post can be read as you are projecting as something you would do to pump a coin.

I merely posted that due to the fact that there is a hard fork in a few days and people should upgrade (pools, miners, etc).

But of course you can troll =) if you wish. 

[generalizethis]

Lol @ countdowns. How to give your coin more of a pump and dump reputation.

Your post can be read as you are projecting as something you would do to pump a coin.

I merely posted that due to the fact that there is a hard fork in a few days and people should upgrade (pools, miners, etc).

But of course you can troll =) if you wish.  

Ignore him--he's a Bitcoin supremacists who feels threatened by Monero's attributes (though he should embrace them if he embraces the cypherpunk spirit in which Bitcoin was founded, but whatever...I'm sure he's on a Ethreum thread by now).

Apart from Eth still being totally flawed overtechnical dung, gas of the internet is absolutely one retarded term.

^^Yup 

[aminorex]

At a guess, price stabilizes near 340, short term, drifts towards 325 and range trades until the next influx.