[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.

Seems to be some supply, 300 btc to 434  and 675 btc to 500.  Ofc it will take more than that.

Just redeemed the deposit bottles I collected after people threw them away and bought a couple of lottery tickets for tonight's drawing with the proceeds.

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[explorer]

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.

Seems to be some supply, 300 btc to 434  and 675 btc to 500.  Ofc it will take more than that.

Just redeemed the deposit bottles I collected after people threw them away and bought a couple of lottery tickets for tonight's drawing with the proceeds.

I was thinking more along the lines of daily emission.  Current levels are less than half 2/3 of what they were last time price was at this level, and pretty much every other variable also favorable.  Overall supply is of course higher, but plenty are removed from the market once bought, and won't be seen again for some time.

edit- read it wrong

[aminorex]

... good as long as there are also market makers who make sure there are always coins for sale if they get margin called, therefore I am very glad we have Aminorex. I wish there will be more people like him.  
They make sure there will not be too much defaults.

My market making is pretty small-time, and if the current pace of rise keeps going past next week, I will stop trying to squeeze out alpha, and just hang on for dear beta, so don't count on me to indemnify your loans.

Seriously, this market is so one-sided that market-making a very tenuous proposition.  Every minute I am not all-in is another minute I risk a FOMU catastrophe.

[ArticMine]

I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

[mathgal23]

I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

As RingCT approaches I think volume has the potential to go much higher.  I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive. If a reasonable percentage of the people hearing about ZCash this summer prior to its release perform due diligence, I think a lot of new interest in Monero will result.

[aminorex]

I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive.

I would be much gratified if you could share your specific reasons for that preference.

[americanpegasus]

I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

To be honest, and you know I am the biggest Monero maximalist out there, it looks like our vertical ascent may have over-extended itself a tad.  I think it's not unthinkable we may face a consolidation/correction period where we bounce off some support.  When people in the Polo troll box start saying things like 'the Monero scam pump is over! ha ha' then you know we are ready to resume launch.

[explorer]

I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

As RingCT approaches I think volume has the potential to go much higher.  I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive. If a reasonable percentage of the people hearing about ZCash this summer prior to its release perform due diligence, I think a lot of new interest in Monero will result.

So we won't count on any new interest from that quarter.

Volume throughout cryptoland has been through the roof this year.  Monero awoke from its slumber with the Hydrogen Helix release, but didn't launch until early February when everything started to explode.  Awesome timing, devs.  0.9 has made it so much easier to get involved.  So many things coming together in 2016.

[dEBRUYNE]

I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive.

I would be much gratified if you could share your specific reasons for that preference.

His reasons probably include the ones mentioned here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/d1ceq3f

[inca]

I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.

To be honest, and you know I am the biggest Monero maximalist out there, it looks like our vertical ascent may have over-extended itself a tad.  I think it's not unthinkable we may face a consolidation/correction period where we bounce off some support.  When people in the Polo troll box start saying things like 'the Monero scam pump is over! ha ha' then you know we are ready to resume launch.

Bit early to say that IMO. We are at a very important level technically. Sure the ascent has been steep but there is no indication thus far that this run is over, though I would like to pick up a few k at a lower price than this.

What are you doing with your 440,000 aeon stash? Why are you not market making or pushing the market around in that smaller paddling pool?

[dEBRUYNE]

In retrospect, whenever I start telling other people about how well I'm doing on X cryptocurrency, that's historically been the best time to sell all and walk away for awhile.

But I really haven't had the urge to do that yet, so I'm not selling anything.  

Don't you mean when people (friends) ask you about it? Historically that was a pretty good indicator, means it is going into (or already is in) bubble mode.

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost:

UPDATE! Monero is back up on ShapeShift. So sorry for the delay. Buy or sell XMR instantly with ShapeShift: https://shapeshift.io/?pair=btc_xmr

[americanpegasus]

What are you doing with your 440,000 aeon stash? Why are you not market making or pushing the market around in that smaller paddling pool?

I could do that.  It would be easy.  I could take that sum and bully down the bids mercilessly and put up bully walls to incite panic, and then buy back cheaper.  I estimate if I did it skillfully I could probably turn those 400k Aeon into 500k. 
 
But I won't do that.  I will hold those Aeon hard, and continue supporting the community as we go.  It's about more than money for me, and I want people to know that though I am heavily invested in Aeon, I'm not some bully whale who wants to profit off their backs.  I made a loud declaration of support for the Aeon blockchain, backed it up with an acquisition, and now will simply hold the spot.  If/when Aeon moves to Poloniex and there exists an XMR/AEON pair I will provide some liquidity for this, but only as a service to the community with little expectation of profit. 
 
Besides, I noticed upon looking at risto's 'bitcoin rich list' (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0) that no known holder of Bitcoin ever held more than 400k-ish of Bitcoin (aside from Satoshi himself).  Some of these people were legendary computer scientists and I feel that it would be foolish for me to ignore their historical precedent.  For some reason, of an asset with approximately 18 to 21 million total tokens, no single entity no matter how rich has ever publicly controlled greater than 400k.  That's good enough for me. 
 
I suspect Monero should be the same (though we would honestly never know).  No single entity should probably seek to control over 400k XMR for long term saving either.  Personally I have significantly less than that at the present, so hell yes I will fight tooth and nail for every single one I can get my hands on, but I wouldn't seek to overdo it. 
 
But what do I know - I'm just some guy, not an oracle.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive.

I would be much gratified if you could share your specific reasons for that preference.

His reasons probably include the ones mentioned here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/d1ceq3f

Thanks for this, had not seen those comments before. Somewhat new to Monero so catching up.

[jwinterm]

What are you doing with your 440,000 aeon stash? Why are you not market making or pushing the market around in that smaller paddling pool?

I could do that.  It would be easy.  I could take that sum and bully down the bids mercilessly and put up bully walls to incite panic, and then buy back cheaper.  I estimate if I did it skillfully I could probably turn those 400k Aeon into 500k. 
...
Besides, I noticed upon looking at risto's 'bitcoin rich list' (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0) that no known holder of Bitcoin ever held more than 400k-ish of Bitcoin (aside from Satoshi himself).  Some of these people were legendary computer scientists and I feel that it would be foolish for me to ignore their historical precedent.  For some reason, of an asset with approximately 18 to 21 million total tokens, no single entity no matter how rich has ever publicly controlled greater than 400k. 
...

Not to be pedantic, but you don't "hold" or "control" anything if you leave your entire stash sitting on an exchange.

[TechorMarketing]

...

Not to be pedantic, but you don't "hold" or "control" anything if you leave your entire stash sitting on an exchange.

This should be addressed further but lets take it to the Aeon thread

[bobabouey2]

When you go on a trip and haven't used your travel computer for a while...

[iCEBREAKER]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

I did strongly agree with that, but am coming around to the 'basically free teaser rate' / 'first hit is free' strategy for enticing shorts into positions they cannot close except at great loss, and are are then forced to maintain at greatly inflated (>>0.1%) rates, leading to an eventual corresponding overall gain in XMR (ceteris paribus).

Code:

1. Whale lends out 100k XMR at ~0%.
2. Whale makes large market buys and/or large support walls, keeping borrower(s) in the red.
3. Whale lends out more XMR for 0.5%-2%.
4. Whale repeats (Steps 1+2+3) until shorts are margin called, optionally placing market making offers squeezed shorts will be forced to buy.
5. Profit!

[saddambitcoin]

I'm currently on a hunt to find the largest single output of all time in a Monero transaction.

My computer is crawling through block by block, and so far (counting down from current height) the record is 100,000 XMR in block 959534. I'm only at 911,000 so I still have many more blocks to go. I've heard there is a 500,000 XMR transaction so let's see where it is!

[americanpegasus]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.