[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

So there should be no effect in the total block reward per day. But the total block size will reduce.

Correct, there is no effect on block reward per day. The blockchain size will be slightly smaller since there will be fewer block headers.

EDIT: papa_lazzarou is correct to point out below that there are numerous other factors affecting blockchains size, and the net effect is difficulty to estimate.

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[dEBRUYNE]

People tend to forget that Poloniex offers 2.5x margin. As a result, even if someone holds 20k he can leverage that up to 50k. Combine that with all the profits made on ETH I am not really suprised by the huge buys and subsequent huge dumps.

[papa_lazzarou]

So , XMR was pumped just before the Block Reward Change and you expect people to jump in?

The blockreward per minute remains the same. The blocktime went from 1 to 2 minutes and the blockreward was thus adjusted accordingly.

So there should be no effect in the total block reward per day. But the total block size will reduce.

Correct. The daily emission stays the same, and the number of new blocks per day in the blockchain will halve.

However, the effect of these changes on the blockchain growth is offset by the new enforced minimum mixin of 2 (larger transfers) and the minimum block size that was raised to accommodate that enforced mixin.

However number 2, some other measures to reduce the blockchain growth were also implemented. No new dust will be created and there are ways to clean the existing dust (which will eliminate it effectively as time goes by). So this will have a positive impact.

It is hard for me to predict the net effect of all these changes on blockchain growth.

[papa_lazzarou]

If people perhaps could actually store the coins themselves we would have a different scenario.

People can actually store the coins themselves since the beginning. I am sorry, but the lack of a official core GUI  is no excuse to leave most of your coins sitting in an exchange.

It's almost as if the wallet release has been kept on hold intentionally to let certain players load up easier. I truly hope this is not the case.

This issue has been raised ad nauseam and explained more or less thoroughly every time. Please research and stop the FUD. Or don't. Whatever.

[TrueCryptonaire]

People tend to forget that Poloniex offers 2.5x margin. As a result, even if someone holds 20k he can leverage that up to 50k. Combine that with all the profits made on ETH I am not really suprised by the huge buys and subsequent huge dumps.

Bear in mind also that the market makers selling the coins for the pumpers and then putting equivalent buy order to support will fuel even more leverage. Thus with only a little equity you can control pretty heavy margin position if you keep growing it and the markets move to your favor. That's a double edged sword: if the margin traders start to compete with short positions the coin can be destroyed but if they compete with long positions, the coin at least theoretically can go towards infinity pricewise.

[DaveyJones]

We can blame 2 years of exchange trading without a wallet. Most people store coins on exchange and result is whales can just peacefully swim around opening their mouths from time to time to take in some plankton(xmr). If people perhaps could actually store the coins themselves we would have a different scenario.
It's almost as if the wallet release has been kept on hold intentionally to let certain players load up easier. I truly hope this is not the case.

The only thing we can blame are users .... if we are talking cash it should be your responsibility do atleast get a little knowledge to do the CLI... no one would pile hard fiat in front of a window and wonder he got robbed... so why people do it online?

Your Money - Your Responsibility.

Not the fault of Monero if Users are lazy cunts

[griffen1102]

Originally resistance, this support level has been tested a few times. This is my call for how low we go before we turn around. XMR can't get to high before the GUI release because that's when I think we will pump hard. Honestly I think this was just a market maker fakeout double top.

[hitchingAride]

Originally resistance, this support level has been tested a few times. This is my call for how low we go before we turn around. XMR can't get to high before the GUI release because that's when I think we will pump hard. Honestly I think this was just a market maker fakeout double top.

Pardon my ignorance but when is the gui release do we know

[Febo]

http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump
time for a dump

Yes, the warm invitation to whoever still needs to dump is still up:)
bet NO, defend your point.

I think most of the posters in this thread are accumulating a long term position in XMR.

XMR is down 10%? It has to go down to below 0.002 for me to lose anything and i'm a latecomer to the party!

inca thing is that latecomers bought Monero cheap. Current price is about my average buy, but my problem is that Bitcoin is at half price as it was when i bought Bitcoins to buy Monero. So when Bitcoin will go back to 600 USD i will be back in greens.

But i am on medium term not worried of either of them.

[griffen1102]

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Originally resistance, this support level has been tested a few times. This is my call for how low we go before we turn around. XMR can't get to high before the GUI release because that's when I think we will pump hard. Honestly I think this was just a market maker fakeout double top.

Pardon my ignorance but when is the gui release do we know

I don't think there is a set date but you can check the github links, which unfortunately I don't have right now,  to get a progress report.

[GingerAle]

[image cut]

Originally resistance, this support level has been tested a few times. This is my call for how low we go before we turn around. XMR can't get to high before the GUI release because that's when I think we will pump hard. Honestly I think this was just a market maker fakeout double top.

Pardon my ignorance but when is the gui release do we know

I don't think there is a set date but you can check the github links, which unfortunately I don't have right now,  to get a progress report.

I think i can say with some amount of confidence based on all available information that I'm pretty sure that I can speculate that the GUI will be released soon.

[americanpegasus]

That said, Monero will probably have some sort of programmability at some point, when it is understood how to add this programability as an optional enhancement over the optimized base function in a scalable and suitably-private manner. (The recent update on Ring Multisig being one small step in that direction.)

[shaggy voice] "Like, that's the most reasonable thing I think I've ever heard anyone ever say."  [/shaggy voice]

[regexlove]

http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump
time for a dump

the warm invitation to whoever still needs to dump is still up:)
bet NO, defend your point.

Noone dares to risk more than $2  for my $70 jackpot, seriously? I thought we agreed that it could be several times more in some years and that at least some portion of the pump from March 20 form 0.00275 to 0.004 was based on real news?  (And i'm willing to raise the jackpot)

[americanpegasus]

Noone dares to risk more than $2  for my $70 jackpot, seriously? I thought we agreed that it could be several times more in some years and that at least some portion of the pump from March 20 form 0.0029 to 0.0042 was based on real news?  (And im willing to raise the jackpot)

I wouldn't feel comfortable with the bet simply because the first one doesn't seem to have been resolved fairly (though you had no counter-betters).  The bet was that Monero would dump below 321, not to it.  We touched 321 on the price charts.  We didn't hit 320.99999 as far as I can see.  
  
But I do like these prediction markets and I want to encourage their continued use.  I will consider throwing in some scratch.

[regexlove]

Yes! It is the same one, still open, didn't resolve!   (As you maybe saw i also posted hours before but restarted for perfect consistency as of a typo, since title and timeline mention April 20 but decisison logic first said April 8 and is no more editable even when only the author did bet. So the easiest was to restart corrected. I would have been fine to have both/another date.)   Prediction markets seem interesting when anyone can write/design a subject for specific goals, such as rewarding competence/balance but penalizeing manipulation. Others (example predictious.com) seem not to offer that but only predefined ones, just like Futures/Options Provider. Betmoose has a principle that authors are also rewarded through a portion of the fee

The orderbook looks somewhat healthier right now, does it?

[slapper]

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

[luigi1111]

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Seems to me "dump city" is likely to correspond quite well with the emission (haven't tried to fit the two together, just speculating).

[slapper]

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine.

In your view, who are these wrong hands and why do they own the coin?

Actually the more interesting question is how does slapper know who owns what amount of XMR?

Nice play on words there ArticMine, but you know well that I am not knocking on the tech or development work (some dev personalities, maybe, but I am appreciative of work).

smfuser, seems like you have been suckered into this coin, so you may not know the complete 2 year history. You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Seems to me "dump city" is likely to correspond quite well with the emission (haven't tried to fit the two together, just speculating).

Alienating significant audience in bitcointalk and potential backers due to abrasive trutherism in the forums and social media had nothing to do with it.  After all there are no other chains with more coins emitted already with more value/coin right? 

[TrueCryptonaire]

It takes some time when fiat will hit bitstamp. 

[inca]

I'll pick up another 10k coins if we test 0.003