[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Agree or disagree with him but I wouldn't question Johnny Mnenomic's understanding or intention.  I always appreciate his posts.

In other news:  Hey look at the price.  Bid size increasing and the # of Moneroj available for sale is decreasing.  inexorable

Such a slow day at work.........................................

[1715464544]

1715464544

[Johnny Mnemonic]

@Johnny Mnenomic

You're either naive or you're just micro-fudding for the sake of a short-term trade.

You can't sell a car by saying "This is a car. Do you want it or not?".

The network is ultimately secured by speculators - people injecting money into the system for purposes of profit. This gives rise to a social foundation from which all other objectives can follow.

Look at Dogecoin: Stick a dog on a coin and say "moon!" and suddenly it has a $50 million market cap. Does it work? Fuck no - it was technologically crippled and would have remained that way had Litecoin not saved it. But who cares about any of that if it's going to make you rich.

Speculation energy drives the narrative and facilitates the technological and social fundamentals by way of increased interest.

Show me a coin that is an exception to that. Bitcoin is the same. And so too is Monero.

I'd hazard a guess that many early adopters of Monero are here because they read a single post by someone who looked vaguely intelligent with a nice suit - a post that promised the moon no less.

The fact that the person turned out to be a little bit batshit crazy and started talking about the coming of the Messiah as well as a whole load of other crap is neither here nor there.

The result is that Monero now has a market cap of over $10 million, the 5th biggest crypto community overall, and the biggest community in terms of similarly untraceable competitors.

Whether you realise it or not, this has happened as a consequence of moon-promise which is the predominant driving force of all cryptocurrencies.... at least in terms of caretaking its initial infancy. It doesn't matter when the devs say "Don't buy Monero - it won't make you rich!"... sure I understand why they say that but no-one actually pays attention to it.

So right now, Monero is massively underpriced. People understand that and they are here to profit.

The consequences of that is an incredibly electric community industry that lays down, consolidates and amplifies all concurrent considerations of the tripod - notably the political base and the technological base.

If you're one of the original Monero bods who is used to a small community atmosphere polarised around the kind of techno-geeky pragmatism that says "Meh - it's a GUI - so what?" ... if that's you, then it's time to pull your trousers up, wave the Monero flag and blow a whistle ... because if you don't, everyone else is just about to. The Monero ecosystem has changed and is changing even further.

Don't get caught with your pants down. It's now time for a different type of moon.

I don't know why you're telling me all this. All I'm saying is the core GUI will not help wider adoption outside of the crypto space. Within our bubble, sure, a few will be able to run nodes who previously didn't want to fuss with the CLI. But I don't consider that "wider adoption".

I'm not saying the CLI is sufficient and people don't need GUIs. Of course they do. I'm saying an Official^TM GUI bundled with the software will not capture more outside users than a third-party wallet designed for a specific use case.

EDIT: I'm actually surprised that two people replied who still use Bitcoin-QT. Good for you (seriously). I still don't expect outside bitcoin adopters to be using QT.

[Drhiggins]

     The posting on this thread in the past few days is crazy!  Lots of opinions.  Over all everyone has their views on Monero, some more educated than others, some out of new curiosity.  I claim to be no expert but to me I feel everyone has their own intended uses for Monero.  Some are skilled developers, some are skilled or not so skilled traders, some are get rich quick people, while others may just like the idea of decentralization and privacy.  

Right and wrong are in the eye of the beholder.  The more avenues that are developed for Monero the better.  ALL add-ons, third party developments or official development will add value.  I don't want to get sucked into a dogmatic view point on Monero because doing so neglects what other people may like about the coin.

For me I'm just an enthusiast with no real programming or development skills who likes the community and the privacy feature of the coin.  It took me some time via trial and error to figure out how to do certain things with the wallet and daemon but over time I have a better understanding by just doing it every day.  I was even able to build multiple miners over the last 18 months with trial and error and asking those in the know (devs and community have always been very helpful ) I will say though that I am looking forward to some of the one click install features because it will help me to talk with friends that are interested in the coin but have no skill in command line or Linux stuff.  

I  was drawn to the coin initially by its privacy features as I'm tired of centralized banking like in the Federal Reserve. To hell with them and that pimp humanity mentality often held by world banks and top scumbags (banking elite puppets) that run them.

So in conclusion all the development going on right now in Monero is good.  It has exploded as of late and this is a great sign for the future.

I'm looking forward to the 1000 USD Monero party.  I have my ticket already.
https://forum.getmonero.org/14/events/49/1000-usd-monero-party

[kurious]

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

20 years ago, only "crypto-anarchists and privacy activists" actually gave a shit about securing personal data with encryption.

Then some celeb i-pads got hacked, Snowden won an Oscar, and the .gov demanded Apple destroy their own products' utility.

Yet the overwhelming majority continue to use gmail and facebook. Privacy to the average person is only important as long as it's equally convenient. Unfortunately, a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency.

Using command line for many people - such as anyone non tech-savvy or, say on a Mac - is a totally foreign and too-much-to-ask chore.   Some people (including me) don't like holding a lot on an exchange or in an online wallet either.  For someone who can’t get their head around using command line to make a wallet etc. (and don’t say it’s ‘so easy’ – it isn’t) it makes the project look under-developed, which is not a good reflection on how Monero is.

I agree. However, you and the few other enthusiasts who want to run their own node will not mark a significant increase in adoption.

Yes, a killer payment app or a next generation improvement on a node /QT type wallet would be better to have, but I think not having a GUI is ammo for detractors and an excuse to leave Monero alone for many people.

I agree, and I stated that the only real benefit at this point of a core GUI is to eliminate any last remaining "troll ammo."

‘Why no wallet?’ is a fair ask.

No, it's not. We have several wallets. I don't think one more will make a difference. I hope I'm wrong.

I am not totally sure if you are wrong. A lot of what you said made sense and has shifted my view in some respects and I am grateful for that.

I just know I (personally) want a GUI for my Mac and I do run a Core wallet for BTC.

I don't think I am the only person averse to command line stuff - and I don't like having money (Monero) on an exchange or in an online wallet.

A GUI will not suddenly increase adoption massively, nope - but it will be one less reason adoption is held back.  Given it's coming at some point, we shall see...

I hope it's soon and of course I hope it does make a difference, I will stand corrected if not.

[MrGood]

I don't know why you're telling me all this. All I'm saying is the core GUI will not help wider adoption outside of...

The original conversation was based around the question of what was driving the markets, which led into the question of what effect the GUI would have on the price.

It is widely accepted that XMR is massively underpriced awaiting upward correction. If you accept that, then it's just a question of what will break the camels back. It could be anything from upstream Trezor adoption, Kraken adoption, Tutanota recognition, speculative diversification of ETH volume, or the relase of the GUI.

Do you accept that XMR is underpriced?

[Johnny Mnemonic]

The original conversation was based around the question of what was driving the markets, which led into the question of what effect the GUI would have on the price.

Okay, we're on the same page then. I'm referring to outside adoption because I feel it's the only thing that will have any meaningful and long-term impact on the market value. Otherwise it's just folks like you and I bidding the price up and down. If the GUI comes out, and the price goes up 200k satoshi for 3 weeks before sliding back to where it was, I don't consider that significant or beneficial beyond whatever marginal profit can be made from the swing.

Do you accept that XMR is underpriced?

Interesting question. I don't think anything is underpriced or overpriced in an absolute sense. I think other speculators see less value in XMR than you or I do, and the price reflects that accurately.

Do I think XMR has massive profit potential over the long-term? Absolutely. But I don't think those massive price gains will come without wider adoption from outside our bubble, and that requires more than a pretty GUI.

[griffen1102]

The original conversation was based around the question of what was driving the markets, which led into the question of what effect the GUI would have on the price.

Okay, we're on the same page then. I'm referring to outside adoption because I feel it's the only thing that will have any meaningful and long-term impact on the market value. Otherwise it's just folks like you and I bidding the price up and down. If the GUI comes out, and the price goes up 200k satoshi for 3 weeks before sliding back to where it was, I don't consider that significant or beneficial beyond whatever marginal profit can be made from the swing.

Do you accept that XMR is underpriced?

I don't think anything is underpriced or overpriced in an absolute sense. I think you and I see more value in XMR than other speculators in the market, and the price reflects that accurately.

Do I think XMR has massive profit potential over the long-term? Absolutely. But I don't think those massive price gains will come without wider adoption from outside our bubble, and that requires more than a pretty GUI.

I know you've said many times now that the GUI won't cause wider adoption outside of our crypto bubble, but do you have any suggestion for how that adoption might be achieved?

EDIT: or rather, what in your mind is the biggest obstacle that needs to be overcome for adoption to start happening?

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I know you've said many times now that the GUI won't cause wider adoption outside of our crypto bubble, but do you have any suggestion for how that adoption might be achieved?

EDIT: or rather, what in your mind is the biggest obstacle that needs to be overcome for adoption to start happening?

Off the top of my head:

A general use wallet could exist in the form of a messaging app built on top of XMR, with the ability to send money to friends' accounts, just like WhatsApp or Venmo. The intimidating 94-character addresses should never be visible to the user but associated with every user's account. Payments could be sent to other user accounts or even to email addresses of non-users (side note: it would be great if MyMonero would allow me to send a payment to any email address ... not talking about open alias).

A great service I'd like to see would be a payment gateway that assumes the risk of instant/0-conf transactions for a fee (say 1%), for point-of-sale purchases.

I think a major obstacle is the address. Addresses need to be abstracted away from the end user. Also, the great thing about cash is that nothing is simpler than handing your friend a ten dollar bill. The first device/app/tool that comes close to that level of simplicity with digital money will win big.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

20 years ago, only "crypto-anarchists and privacy activists" actually gave a shit about securing personal data with encryption.

Then some celeb i-pads got hacked, Snowden won an Oscar, and the .gov demanded Apple destroy their own products' utility.

Yet the overwhelming majority continue to use gmail and facebook. Privacy to the average person is only important as long as it's equally convenient. Unfortunately, a core GUI is not a compelling enough reason for regular people to start using a currency.

Using command line for many people - such as anyone non tech-savvy or, say on a Mac - is a totally foreign and too-much-to-ask chore.   Some people (including me) don't like holding a lot on an exchange or in an online wallet either.  For someone who can’t get their head around using command line to make a wallet etc. (and don’t say it’s ‘so easy’ – it isn’t) it makes the project look under-developed, which is not a good reflection on how Monero is.

I agree. However, you and the few other enthusiasts who want to run their own node will not mark a significant increase in adoption.

Yes, a killer payment app or a next generation improvement on a node /QT type wallet would be better to have, but I think not having a GUI is ammo for detractors and an excuse to leave Monero alone for many people.

I agree, and I stated that the only real benefit at this point of a core GUI is to eliminate any last remaining "troll ammo."

‘Why no wallet?’ is a fair ask.

No, it's not. We have several wallets. I don't think one more will make a difference. I hope I'm wrong.

I am not totally sure if you are wrong. A lot of what you said made sense and has shifted my view in some respects and I am grateful for that.

I just know I (personally) want a GUI for my Mac and I do run a Core wallet for BTC.

I don't think I am the only person averse to command line stuff - and I don't like having money (Monero) on an exchange or in an online wallet.

A GUI will not suddenly increase adoption massively, nope - but it will be one less reason adoption is held back.  Given it's coming at some point, we shall see...

I hope it's soon and of course I hope it does make a difference, I will stand corrected if not.

If you want a Monero GUI for your Mac have you tried LightWallet2?

[TPTB_need_war]

Did you guys forget to vote? MaidSafe, Factom, Bitshares, and Ethereum are less scammy than Monero according to this poll:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1391752.0

I hope you all realize that Factom is a complete farce.

[smooth]

Did you guys forget to vote? MaidSafe, Factom, Bitshares, and Ethereum are less scammy than Monero according to this poll:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1391752.0

I hope you all realize that Factom is a complete farce.

Getting called scam most often is not really the same as most scammy.

The correct answer to that poll is Bitcoin of course.

Monero should be rated higher than it is though, I'm disappointed.

[bitebits]

EDIT: or rather, what in your mind is the biggest obstacle that needs to be overcome for adoption to start happening?

A general use wallet could exist in the form of a messaging app built on top of XMR, with the ability to send money to friends' accounts, just like WhatsApp or Venmo. [...]

This needs more thought. I think it is an interesting suggestion, but at first sight it looks like Bitcoin is better suitable for that purpose. Your suggestion undermines what Monero stands for: privacy and untraceability. It unveils that Alice sends amount X to Bob.

Would it be possible with an app (having a central server) like Whatsapp / or with encrypted messages as Telegram for example uses? The mobile wallet still needs to communicate with a node, so I am not sure how this would work without revealing information about the transaction to the app's creator/server. Any suggestions?

[explorer]

Did you guys forget to vote? MaidSafe, Factom, Bitshares, and Ethereum are less scammy than Monero according to this poll:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1391752.0

I hope you all realize that Factom is a complete farce.

Getting called scam most often is not really the same as most scammy.

Reading comprehension is not high.  Perhaps it is a language barrier though.

[birr]

Your suggestion undermines what Monero stands for: privacy and untraceability. It unveils that Alice sends amount X to Bob.

Who cares.  I see nothing wrong with using Monero openly.   Use it!  Use it moar!  MOAR, MOAR, MOAR!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

EDIT: or rather, what in your mind is the biggest obstacle that needs to be overcome for adoption to start happening?

A general use wallet could exist in the form of a messaging app built on top of XMR, with the ability to send money to friends' accounts, just like WhatsApp or Venmo. [...]

This needs more thought. I think it is an interesting suggestion, but at first sight it looks like Bitcoin is better suitable for that purpose. Your suggestion undermines what Monero stands for: privacy and untraceability. It unveils that Alice sends amount X to Bob.

Would it be possible with an app (having a central server) like Whatsapp / or with encrypted messages as Telegram for example uses? The mobile wallet still needs to communicate with a node, so I am not sure how this would work without revealing information about the transaction to the app's creator/server. Any suggestions?

Yes, the app could potentially know when user X sends money to user Y, although it seems only public address associations would need to be stored server side. Regardless, not all implementations of XMR need to offer complete privacy. Different services can offer various trade-offs between privacy and usability depending on the needs of the user. The ultra-paranoid are always free to run a full node and do things the "old-fashioned" way.

[kurious]

If you want a Monero GUI for your Mac have you tried LightWallet2?

I just downloaded it and tried to open the files on my mac and it just opened Terminal.

It's not going work for me, sorry.  I am afraid I can't code, I am used to clicking an installer and just using an application.  Dumb?  Maybe, but I manage with Bitcoin QT and Core easily enough - I can't see how to use this one!

Thanks all the same

[slapper]

Sold because no GUI 

China shift in yet?

[nioc]

Sold because no GUI 

China shift in yet?

Why did you buy?

I lost all of mine in a boating accident

[meme magic]

Sold because no GUI  

China shift in yet?

Why did you buy?

I lost all of mine in a boating accident

pretty sure its time to sell boat insurance for monero

all those holders cant seem to keep their boats unsunk.

[nickenburg]

Guys I recently bought some monero for the first time.
Is it smart to keep these coins for the long term?
And if so how long term should I think, because this coin has been here for a long time now.
And I think this coin is still kinda underpriced, But is it smart to keep in on the exchange?
Or is monero easy to transfer to your wallet and keep it safely there?