[XMR] Monero Speculation

[pandher]

XMR will have a big bull run, it just attempted to do so far too close to BTC halving time.  All alts will get murdered in the halving, then once BTC stabilizes at it's new high, Monero can then work on going somewhere again.

I was just thinking the same, Monero seems to have something (huge) cooking. If i am correct we will not go any lower than .003

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[CrowdWhale]

XMR touched the trend line when BTC took off. Now BTC is at the top of the triangle and will probably drop again towards 400. XMR appears to be regaining its composure. I think there's a good chance the 335 area will hold. Former resistance area and strong buying under 340k.

[vuduchyld]

I don't know what will happen, nor do I lose any sleep over the current price.

If you've got BTC available, this ain't nothing but a buying opportunity.  XMR is definitely one to accumulate aggressively.

I mean, c'mon, right now it's $1.48 (I'm intentionally NOT thinking about it in BTC terms).  That's still 25% higher than it was in dollar terms in it's peak last year.  You could be underwater in BTC terms and still well ahead of the game in whatever local currency you used to purchase that BTC.  

Travel back in your time machine ONE WEEK, folks, and you would have been thrilled.

The future is bright.

[TrueCryptonaire]

What the heck? Someone taking huge short positions and building walls? 

[TrueCryptonaire]

XMR touched the trend line when BTC took off. Now BTC is at the top of the triangle and will probably drop again towards 400. XMR appears to be regaining its composure. I think there's a good chance the 335 area will hold. Former resistance area and strong buying under 340k.

When the price drops it definetely is the exact time to show some strength to the bears. I agree that the current area is pretty much the place to be.
Judging by the intensivity and the mood of the bear, I am not surprised if it breaks and we go to 0.002's but that's unlikely and also perhaps harmful for the trend.
The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. 

[slapper]

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. 

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions. 

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

I am not selling though. I am lending and the interests will accumulate. Over the years with compounding interests the interest collected will be more meaningful than my initial investment.

[vuduchyld]

Ethereum is in strong hands who respect it as an asset?

Looks to me more like that train got jumped on and ridden hard by every "bro" with a satoshi.  And oh by the way, it also looks like it's down far more from its high and for far longer.

I could be wrong, but I'd say it's far more of an exploited asset by the bros.

[r0ach]

When the price drops it definetely is the exact time to show some strength to the bears. I agree that the current area is pretty much the place to be.
Judging by the intensivity and the mood of the bear, I am not surprised if it breaks and we go to 0.002's but that's unlikely and also perhaps harmful for the trend.
The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions.  

Yes, I've already learned that lesson with Cagara on Bologniex.  This was an era when the highest daily volume for a coin was like 3000 BTC.  I had no idea someone would show up out of the blue willing to short with 1000 BTC.  Even if you own that much BTC yourself, what kind of idiot would risk it all in one move on an altcoin, plus insane counterparty risk of the exchange at the same time.  I had to back out of a trade while still in profit, but was essentially bullied out of position because he was willing to risk more than me.

Funny enough, he tried to do the exact same thing to Eth when it began to rise, bully Eth pumpers out of position right around 0.004.  It obviously backfired horribly.  God only knows how much he lost from that.  He may be living in a cardboard box now.  Here today, gone tomorrow.

[ArticMine]

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions.  

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

Seriously Monero has gone up over 400% in a period of 2.5 months and one can reach the above conclusion over a 25% correction? The reality is that a correction is in many cases healthy for the longevity of a bull market. This applies to any asset not just crypto currencies.
Maybe what the market is looking for here is for more bears to get deeper into margin in order to set up a good short squeeze. As I have indicated before a short squeeze involving crypto currencies can get real ugly real fast, which is why taking delivery and sitting back and watching this unravel is my preferred course of action.

Edit: I have said this before and will say it again. The most effective way to squeeze the shorts to the wall is to take delivery and wait.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The good thing is I got a pay day during this dump. A lot of old shorts (including 0.9 %) was closed and a nice chunk of Moneros was pocketed and now lent back to the next generation of bears.
Always cool to get some extra Moneros... All the dust even is worth picking IMO as opposed to let someone else to take it. 

[ArticMine]

The good thing is I got a pay day during this dump. A lot of old shorts (including 0.9 %) was closed and a nice chunk of Moneros was pocketed and now lent back to the next generation of bears.
Always cool to get some extra Moneros... All the dust even is worth picking IMO as opposed to let someone else to take it. 

To each their own, but personally I do not like the risk to reward ratio of financing Monero short positions that use Dash for example as collateral. Nothing against Dash, I would feel the same about a Dash short position that uses Monero as collateral. The risk of a double whammy here can be very high.

[wpalczynski]

Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

[r0ach]

I do not agree with the TrueCryptonaire sig:

"In the long run XMR has good chances to gain higher marketcap than btc."

BTC can scale off-chain and Monero doesn't, nor through SPV type implementations.  At that point, there is no point in using Monero over BTC.  It's true, Monero market cap can be much higher than now, even in the billions, but if it was, Bitcoin would probably be in the trillions.

It's possible Monero or Zcash will occupy some type of niche market, but the anon wars of incrementalism would have to end first, and I'm not really seeing how that's going to happen.  You would need to subscribe to four ideas for Monero to really do something:

1)  Smooth's claim that currency is the killer app of the blockchain (likely plausible)
2)  Anonymity is a mandatory feature set of that app (less plausible)
3)  Governments would not make the anon currency extremely difficult to use while allowing BTC instead, crippling the anon currency market cap
4)  The need to believe on-chain anonymity would be useful in a clearing/settlement network.

If your key feature is not utilized in the likely evolution of the network, you're relegated back to the niche market.  That niche market could be worth billions of dollars though, so I guess it's all relative.  BTC on the other hand could go to trillions as a settlement layer.  There's just not an overwhelming need to make Bitcoin obsolete and switch when both coins operate roughly the same in the end game.  Ring signatures will likely block many further on-chain scaling options to boot.  So yea, it could be valuable, but likely not a threat to Bitcoin.

[slapper]

The seller is a whale, no question about it. Kinda dangerous to hold a coin that is held by some whales who can move the markets with their moods and emotions.  

Absolutely true. Perhaps the most important thing you have said in your entire BTCTalk history. This coin is not suitable to be introduced to any new people through word of mouth or even pointing to any articles or other literature.

This coin is in all the wrong hands you can imagine. Even Darkcoin/Dash is built with a lot of solid hands giving it value.

This is why we need zcash. Just like we need Ethereum, not just for technology but for value and respecting value of an asset.

Seriously Monero has gone up over 400% in a period of 2.5 months and one can reach the above conclusion over a 25% correction? The reality is that a correction is in many cases healthy for the longevity of a bull market. This applies to any asset not just crypto currencies.
Maybe what the market is looking for here is for more bears to get deeper into margin in order to set up a good short squeeze. As I have indicated before a short squeeze involving crypto currencies can get real ugly real fast, which is why taking delivery and sitting back and watching this unravel is my preferred course of action.

Edit: I have said this before and will say it again. The most effective way to squeeze the shorts to the wall is to take delivery and wait.

Percentages might tell only a limited reality. The deliberate crashing of the market today was related to a $10 increase in BTC price. Someone mentioned here a few pages ago about there being such a trend for months, but after all this rise a whale shitting on his own investment thereby triggering mass dumping today is what we are talking about here. You dont see that in Dash. Ethereum is of course pumped way too high to sustain but it still has much bigger BTC whales backing it, so the little guy doesn't feel as threatened to get into BTC.

[ArticMine]

Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

I would not call it petty, and I do not have a "moral" problem with it. It is just in this case I find it extremely risky.  

[kanazawa]

some months ago, I told that Monero was the most crazy coin in the whole scene... now it's getting more and more serious, lotta people talk about eth, few of them know, lotta people talk about s.c but none of them ready this juicy thread completely full of information. lolng live to monero and to the guys who are supporing it so strong across the destruction scenatio between other coins (you know).

[TrueCryptonaire]

Pretty petty to begin with allowing an asset you are invested in to be shorted for fractions of a percent in interest.

The markets decide the interest rates, it is the intermediation of supply and demand.
0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually (excl. compounding interest rate which make the actual ROI even higher on annual basis).

[r0ach]

0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually

And on the next $20 BTC jump, you lose all of that in 2 days for the counterparty risk of having coins on bologniex for a year.  Wow, people really did forget Gox existed already.  The only reason to keep coins on an exchange is the freaking stop loss lol.

[TrueCryptonaire]

0.1 % daily interest rate is 36.5 % annually

And on the next $20 BTC jump, you lose all of that in 2 days for the counterparty risk of having coins on bologniex for a year.  Wow, people really did forget Gox existed already.  The only reason to keep coins on an exchange is the freaking stop loss lol.

If that plan fits for you, then good for you I guess.
I am looking for passive income and currently I consider Polo lending the best and the savest way for that. That being said, I am not thinking it is 100 % safe and sound system and there indeed are all kind of risks. The markets will decide what is the risk premium of such risks. In bank account I get 0 % interest rate but for lending XMR I get over 30 %.. Sure bank account is safer place to hold money (the governement will bail the banks out usually because the banking system is too big to fail) but also it will not give you any ROI...