[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed. Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion. The preceding sentence forbids repetitive exchanges on the same topic without some topical context.

Hostile trolling (which includes but is not limited to use of "meme" pictures to attack or demean) especially by sock puppet accounts is not allowed.

When quoting posts, please remove any large charts or other images unless the quoted post is at least one page old. Please shrink (or remove) large images in replies in all cases.

When I am speaking as the moderator, and only then, I will write in red. Other messages using red text are not permitted.

People speculating on Monero may also be interested in the MoneroMarkets subreddit (unaffiliated)

[Ultros]

monero.cc

Monero Economy  •  Monero Support  •  Monero Mining  •  Monero Dev

#monero • #monero-dev • #monero-otc

Old thread (now locked): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622708.0

[rpietila]

I hope to soon post here a chart or table showing the amounts of moneros traded at any given price level (0-50k, 50-100k, etc.). In my opinion, monero has during all its exchange history been a rangebound coin. The all-time-weighted-average is about 400k, and most of the trade has been conducted at a narrow range of 300-500k. When the range is definitely broken, there is no knowing what the next trading range would be.

[dEBRUYNE]

Ultros, can you add the irc channels #monero  •  #monero-dev  •  #monero-otc to your post also? This is helpfull for people who have a problem and want to chat about it.

On topic: As I stated before, there is clearly great resistance @ 0.004, if we break that I think we will reach 0.0055-0.006 again. Support is @ 0.0033-0.0034 area. There is a probability that we move sideways for some time before breaking through 0.004.

[rpietila]

Code:

pricemin	pricemax	volume%	cumulative
850	899	2 %	100 %
800	849	0 %	98 %
750	799	2 %	98 %
700	749	1 %	96 %
650	699	0 %	95 %
600	649	5 %	95 %
550	599	5 %	90 %
500	549	8 %	85 %
450	499	7 %	77 %
400	449	22 %	70 %
350	399	16 %	48 %
300	349	13 %	32 %
250	299	11 %	19 %
200	249	3 %	8 %
150	199	0 %	5 %
100	149	3 %	5 %
50	99	1 %	2 %
0	49	1 %	1 %

This shows that 48% of the volume has been traded below 0.00400. The all-time-average is 0.00410. Days above 0.00450 are rather rare (30% in total) whereas above 0.00650 is only 5% in total. The most traded range seems to be 0.00250-0.00450.

I regard the current price as cheap, because 68% of the volume has been traded at a higher price.

[bobabouey2]

Excellent data,  and because I like histograms:

[nioc]

On June 24 the block reward was 16 and today it is ~14.6 which is a 9% decrease in 2 months.  

At what point will the decreasing emissions have a significant effect on price?  

[sparky999]

If you can estimate the adoption rate then it would simply be the point in time at which adoption and emission curves intersect. Pretty sure Rpitila has all the numbers to do this if he hasn't done so already. I would ballpark it at around Dec-Feb.

[smooth]

On June 24 the block reward was 16 and today it is ~14.6 which is a 9% decrease in 2 months.  

At what point will the decreasing emissions have a significant effect on price?  

9% seems significant to me but I consider demand side paramount to any coin. Without demand it goes to zero regardless of emission.

[rpietila]

If you can estimate the adoption rate then it would simply be the point in time at which adoption and emission curves intersect. Pretty sure Rpitila has all the numbers to do this if he hasn't done so already. I would ballpark it at around Dec-Feb.

I think the demand has already outstripped supply, or is about to do so any week from now.

BUT, because the beginning (from day 1 (and especially the exchange launch), until the point where demand is larger than emission) was bridged by speculators who bought the coin in anticipation of the demand starting, and by so doing kept the price rather high, it is not immediately obvious when the adoption overtakes emission. My calculation is that XMR is not loved by speculators currently, and even many who like the coin are temporarily out, waiting for the price to come down. This would mean rocket fuel at the point when it is clear to everybody that the 250-450 trading range is permanently behind us.

But then again - I maybe the person who thinks about these the most, but it does not mean I am right...

[bobabouey2]

Corrected graph per rpietila catch.

[vuduchyld]

Just noticed XMR hit #11 on the coinmarketcap.com capitalization rank.  It had mostly been 12-14 over the last few weeks.

[smooth]

Just noticed XMR hit #11 on the coinmarketcap.com capitalization rank.  It had mostly been 12-14 over the last few weeks.

If you get rid of the non-minable coins with basically arbitrary number of coins outstanding (Ripple, etc.) it jumps to #7.  Click currencies then choose "Filter non-mineable"

[Lauda]

On June 24 the block reward was 16 and today it is ~14.6 which is a 9% decrease in 2 months.  

At what point will the decreasing emissions have a significant effect on price?  

9% seems significant to me but I consider demand side paramount to any coin. Without demand it goes to zero regardless of emission.

Well it's not that significant even though the time frame is small. I'll probably wait till the block reward is under 10 coins. I've watched the market closely the past few weeks. It did have problems like most coins did, when that horrible week took place. Although it did recover quite nicely and I'm sure that we should be seeing slow growth. I just wonder how far would the next "crypto rally" take it.

[dnaleor]

Thx for this thread :-) please, keep fud away :-)

[smooth]

Thx for this thread :-) please, keep fud away :-)

I will not be filtering negative opinions unless they are stupid (no meaningful analysis given e.g. "Monero Sucks"), repetitive, off topic (e.g. promoting some other coin), or offensive/abusive. I'm open to other suggestions on charter.

[rikkejohn]

Well this is very much on topic. I would like to know if anyone can answer how Monero replaced LTC at Poloniex as the second trading coin?

I could speculate (like the title of this thread asks me to do), but someone must have an answer.

[ArticMine]

The most simple explanation for XMR replacing LTC on Poloniex: Trading volume of LTC and XMR on Poloniex

[othe]

Well this is very much on topic. I would like to know if anyone can answer how Monero replaced LTC at Poloniex as the second trading coin?

I could speculate (like the title of this thread asks me to do), but someone must have an answer.

LTC/Altpairs simply had not volume there, poloniex is a small exchange. LTC is on nearly all big exchanges so there´s no need to trade it on polo.
LTC/Altpairs failed, no one traded it and they simply tried XMR than because it is the coin with the most volume there.

No conspiracy involved there. Simple business decision from Poloniex.

[oda.krell]

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed.

Discussion of what is on-topic or off-topic is on-topic especially at the start. I will consider such input and make a final decision on such suggestions, and that will edited into the OP.

Thanks for opening a new speculation thread. I'm not a huge fan of self moderated threads, as they tend to invite abuse of power of the thread starter in my experience. That said, not wanting to give in to FUD posts/trolling is a valid reason for self moderation, so I'm not outright going to bash the attempt.

To get started, in addition to discussing what is "off topic" in this thread, I'd also like to see some clarification what constitutes "FUD / trolling"...

Just went through the last 10 or so pages of the old speculation thread, that was supposedly so infested by trolling and FUD, and couldn't find a single post that qualifies in my opinion. Guess they could have been mod-removed (via report), but that'd just be further evidence that self-moderation isn't really necessary to get rid of trolls.

What about Wachtwoord's posts? They provoked a pretty strong negative reaction by some, e.g.

But Monero is not truly anonymous, merely pseudo-anonymous. Doesn't that bother you?

Do we want to a) call this "trolling / FUD", and b) removed it from the thread?