Is it possible that 1 BTC be worth $2,000 by the end of 2015?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Depends what happens throughout 2015.
A year is a long time, if there is some really positive news then it's definitely possible.

[DustyRah]

Price seem to go up again a little.
Seem like that when christmas comes price might go to 500-600$ but 2k in next year hard.

But if somebody or someone have huge influence and bots price can go even higher.

The price will go up long enough for loaded traders to dump their load and ca$h out!

[Trolololo]

I do not believe that the intrinsic value of BTC will likely be $2000 by the end of 2015, but I see pretty significant divergences between my perception of value and the market's interpretation, i.e. price.

Right now, I believe price is less than value.  When it corrects, it tends to overshoot.  So I wouldn't rule out a price of $2000 by the end of 2015.  By my calculations, which are subject to change pending adoption and transactions, a value of $2000 would probably take place sometime in 2017 or 2018.

That still makes a $475 bitcoin a pretty damn good investment.  Where else might you see a 400%+ return in 3 or 4 years?h

According to my logarithmic regression, bitcoin's value by the end of 2015 will be around 2000 USD/BTC:



But no one can tell what will be the market's price by then.

[Dafar]

I do not believe that the intrinsic value of BTC will likely be $2000 by the end of 2015, but I see pretty significant divergences between my perception of value and the market's interpretation, i.e. price.

Right now, I believe price is less than value.  When it corrects, it tends to overshoot.  So I wouldn't rule out a price of $2000 by the end of 2015.  By my calculations, which are subject to change pending adoption and transactions, a value of $2000 would probably take place sometime in 2017 or 2018.

That still makes a $475 bitcoin a pretty damn good investment.  Where else might you see a 400%+ return in 3 or 4 years?h

According to my logarithmic regression, bitcoin's value by the end of 2015 will be around 2000 USD/BTC:



But no one can tell what will be the market's price by then.

lol nice chart... come back to me when btc is NOT $10k by 2018

[bitcoinbelieve]

I strongly believe that current price of $325 is not accurate. The price should climb around $800 by end of Nov. and continue to increase close to $1000 by end of this year.

It's half way of my prediction 

[WaffleMaster]

Some pretty good guesses in here, but here's an actual chart to back up most of these claims http://imgur.com/Hf3AcQ6,piL7U3L#1 .  As to stopping price, well I'm too smart to try and predict one of those

[azguard]

I do not believe that the intrinsic value of BTC will likely be $2000 by the end of 2015, but I see pretty significant divergences between my perception of value and the market's interpretation, i.e. price.

Right now, I believe price is less than value.  When it corrects, it tends to overshoot.  So I wouldn't rule out a price of $2000 by the end of 2015.  By my calculations, which are subject to change pending adoption and transactions, a value of $2000 would probably take place sometime in 2017 or 2018.

That still makes a $475 bitcoin a pretty damn good investment.  Where else might you see a 400%+ return in 3 or 4 years?h

According to my logarithmic regression, bitcoin's value by the end of 2015 will be around 2000 USD/BTC:



But no one can tell what will be the market's price by then.

With this graph we can estimate that price will go up.
Now it slowly goes up.

All will be happy if price comes to half of predicted graph.

[bajlox]

I do not believe that the intrinsic value of BTC will likely be $2000 by the end of 2015, but I see pretty significant divergences between my perception of value and the market's interpretation, i.e. price.

Right now, I believe price is less than value.  When it corrects, it tends to overshoot.  So I wouldn't rule out a price of $2000 by the end of 2015.  By my calculations, which are subject to change pending adoption and transactions, a value of $2000 would probably take place sometime in 2017 or 2018.

That still makes a $475 bitcoin a pretty damn good investment.  Where else might you see a 400%+ return in 3 or 4 years?h

According to my logarithmic regression, bitcoin's value by the end of 2015 will be around 2000 USD/BTC:



But no one can tell what will be the market's price by then.

So we estimate price going sky high.
Lest hope that it will be like this in  next year.
It long period one whole year so lest hope that this will happen.

[pedrosoft]

very nice graph ! much appreciated

[jehst]

I don't think the price will look anything like this. Why?

1. Bitcoin's network effect means that bitcoin will become more useful as more users join.
2. Bitcoin's price should and does mirror its adoption (as measured in # of transactions/day and also by # of users)
3. In the beginning, there should be a gradual trickle of early adopters and speculators.
4. In the middle there should be a tipping point where everyone can see that bitcoin is the most superior form of money in existence and the majority should pile on at nearly the same time.
5. In the end, there should be gradual adoption among laggards.

In other words, successful adoption would look more like this:



The biggest "bubble" will be the period between innovators and early adopters (the first 16%) and laggards (the last ~16%). This bubble will seem like a neverending bull market for years in a row. By its end, many weak national currencies will be gone and bitcoin will be held by anyone with significant savings.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that growth should gradually slow from 10x to 5x to 2x, etc.

[picolo]

Bitcoin is now what? $470? Is it possible that bitcoin will reach that kind of worth a year and half from now?

It could go do 2000$ by April 2015 if the US Dollar tanks before then and it becomes clear that the US economy is in really bad shape.

It could be at 4000$ by the end of 2015.

[ErnieX]

$2,000 is very conservative.

[CryptoVape]

Very cool how the newer techs are faster and faster to take off.

[azguard]

Bitcoin is now what? $470? Is it possible that bitcoin will reach that kind of worth a year and half from now?

It could go do 2000$ by April 2015 if the US Dollar tanks before then and it becomes clear that the US economy is in really bad shape.

It could be at 4000$ by the end of 2015.

Good point.
Perhaps will be more to 1200$ not that much in april next year.
But if all cryptos meaning altcoin follow btc then i dont care if price goes to 2K
Half off my funding is in some other alt so i want to follow price change in alt when btc goes up not just when price is going down.

[bajlox]

To be realistic price of btc should bee roughly around 1000$
Think that this is good and fair price.
Anything else will be speculating and guesing.

[dinofelis]

I don't think the price will look anything like this. Why?

1. Bitcoin's network effect means that bitcoin will become more useful as more users join.
2. Bitcoin's price should and does mirror its adoption (as measured in # of transactions/day and also by # of users)
3. In the beginning, there should be a gradual trickle of early adopters and speculators.
4. In the middle there should be a tipping point where everyone can see that bitcoin is the most superior form of money in existence and the majority should pile on at nearly the same time.
5. In the end, there should be gradual adoption among laggards.

Personally, I don't think so.  Bitcoin is not (just) a technology.  Bitcoin has to do with money, and at the level we are now, in order to grow, it has to do with BIG money.  Big money is not just a matter of technology, but very much also a matter of trust.  Trust comes with time.

Can you imagine, say, the oil market being done in bitcoin in just a few years ?

The Euro has taken more than a decade of preparation, with strong political will, to be adopted in Europe where countries had to let their currency go.   The Germans had all the difficulty in the world to leave their strong DM for another currency.  There are human factors in money which is more than just technology-adoption.

The other aspect of why I don't think that the bitcoin price will go through an S-curve, is speculation.  The market tries to ANTICIPATE.  Grossly, the current market price is a kind of weighted estimator by the market players of their guess of the future value and the probability they give to that guess.
If the market thinks that it has 1% chance that a coin is going for $30 000,-, then the current market price reflects that.

So normally, the *perception* of the future bitcoin price will be anticipated by markets, and, apart from improbable but important events, I don't see how that perception can jump seriously on a short time scale.

Why should perception of the future price change radically over a short period of time ?  I expect a rather slow adjustment of price as an estimate of future price by the market.

[swansong]

bitcoin and everybody ready for it to reach $2000 and go beyond. It would'nt be suprise.

[Tzupy]

With an influx of new fiat similar to the Chinese in October - December 2013, it's possible. Without plenty of new fiat, probably not, wait for 2016.

[bajlox]

The Euro has taken more than a decade of preparation, with strong political will, to be adopted in Europe where countries had to let their currency go.   The Germans had all the difficulty in the world to leave their strong DM for another currency.  There are human factors in money which is more than just technology-adoption.

Your right about thins. They had lot of time to prep.
But germany wants to go back on DM for year and have difficulties to do so.

Also its same problem here but it will happen faster then we think.
More users on net, more people involved in crypto, more companies are involved here ass well.

Only time is something that is important here.

[azguard]

So normally, the *perception* of the future bitcoin price will be anticipated by markets, and, apart from improbable but important events, I don't see how that perception can jump seriously on a short time scale.

Why should perception of the future price change radically over a short period of time ?  I expect a rather slow adjustment of price as an estimate of future price by the market.
   

You said it price is based on market cap and demand.
Perception is not in this, except if you are lucky.

Price is generated on current market cap and demand not just when someone said I want price to go up.