Bitcoin Savings and Trust is probably a Ponzi Scheme: A Petition

[JoelKatz]

Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi?

I never said that he was a Ponzi. What I did say is that I don't know of anything else it could possibly be. I freely admit that that means it could be something I don't know of or can't think of. I've invited others to make suggestions in this thread, people have, and I've explained why none of those suggestions actually make any sense. (Did you somewhere mention something other than a Ponzi that it could possibly be? If so, I missed it. Please, I'd love to hear any other theories you have.)

I honestly believe it is more likely that it is something other than a Ponzi, that I cannot think of or do not know of, then that it is a Ponzi. But what this means is that it is impossible to estimate the risk. I submit that anyone who invests in something where the risk cannot possibly be estimated is an idiot. Further, they are an immoral idiot because they have no idea what the consequence of their actions are -- they don't know what they're funding.

High interest rate isn't enough.  Do you have evidence of pirate failing to pay any returns? Has he been late (longer than say an hour)? Has ANYONE been screwed by pirate?  In short, until you provide solid evidence, you're just a bunch of FUD.

If you want to cite specific claims I've made that I've failed to support, feel free to do so. But you've just made a list of claims I haven't made and then claimed that this somehow refutes the arguments I did make.

[1715373651]

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[1715373651]

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[imsaguy]

Where's the support for your claim that he is a ponzi?

I never said that he was a Ponzi. What I did say is that I don't know of anything else it could possibly be. I freely admit that that means it could be something I don't know of or can't think of. I've invited others to make suggestions in this thread, people have, and I've explained why none of those suggestions actually make any sense. (Did you somewhere mention something other than a Ponzi that it could possibly be? If so, I missed it. Please, I'd love to hear any other theories you have.)

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?

[JoelKatz]

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?

I'm pretty sure you're joking. But of course I can't imagine any way that could be possible. If you're trying to suggest a possibility, you have to explain how it is in fact possible.

The issue is not proof or disprove of the truth of the claim. The issue is proof that the thing claimed is possible.

[imsaguy]

Jesus.  Pirate is Jesus.  We can't prove nor disprove.  Satisfied?

I'm pretty sure you're joking. But of course I can't imagine any way that could be possible. If you're trying to suggest a possibility, you have to explain how it is in fact possible.

The issue is not proof or disprove of the truth of the claim. The issue is proof that the thing claimed is possible.

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?

[JoelKatz]

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?

The burden is on the claimant to show possibility. But for one thing, Jesus died a long time ago.

[BinaryMage]

How is it not possible that pirate is Jesus?

The burden is on the claimant to show possibility. But for one thing, Jesus died a long time ago.

That's what they want you to believe.

[finkleshnorts]

i keep waiting for luke jr. to show...

[P4man]

Id like to point out that most backers of Pirate were claiming he was involved in money laundering and/or other (drug related) illegal activities. Pirate has recently categorically denied this. I wonder if those people are calling Pirate a liar or if they are now as clueless as the rest of us about his actual business model.

[ShadowAlexey]

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?
And pls give a link to his post.

[JoelKatz]

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?

Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.

[ShadowAlexey]

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?

Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.

What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

[coblee]

Hey hey, he might just be selling coins, why not?

Because he pays people their interest in coins. So he must, on net, *acquire* coins. I have tried to imagine how such a system could work where he obtains his investment in coins and also pays out interest in coins. I couldn't do it. If you have an idea, please share.

Well, he's said previously that he's selling coins locally to groups of buyers. So if you accept that, all he does is sell coins at a markup to people for cash, deposit that cash to mtgox, trade for btc, pay interest to depositors, and whatever is left is his profit.

[P4man]

What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

Thats the point.. why would he borrow at an insane interest rates if he has to buy coins at exchanges anyway. All that changes is that he has to buy even more.

[coblee]

What stops him from buying coins on birges?
Daily volume of gox if 62kBTC,how much do you think he needs to buy daily?)

Thats the point.. why would he borrow at an insane interest rates if he has to buy coins at exchanges anyway. All that changes is that he has to buy even more.

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

[P4man]

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available.

So he can buy them beforehand. After all this time, if his business works only half as well as he claims, surely he has the capital required and then some. Yet for some reason he seems to need constantly more, not less.

Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

Sounds like a very expensive way to hedge against a BTC price collapse. Going short on bitcoinica would make far more sense. Not too mention he could just cash out his profits in $.

[JoelKatz]

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

Effectively, you're saying that it's a huge gamble that the price of Bitcoin will go way down. He wants to sell people's coins today and pay them back with coins tomorrow, when he expects that they'll be worth less. But that doesn't work for two reasons:

1) It incurs huge, needless risk. If he's holding lots of investors' coins and the price of Bitcoin goes way up, all those profits belong to his investors, not him. If he holds 15,000 Bitcoins that have been invested and the price of Bitcoins doubles, he's much worse off. He now has to acquire Bitcoins to pay back withdrawals at twice the price. You don't hedge by holding an asset.

2) You don't need to pay 10%/month to short Bitcoins.

[coblee]

My guess is having access to bitcoins instantly is important to his buyers, so he needs to have a large capital of bitcoins readily available. Here's my reasoning why he borrows instead of uses his own coins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.msg916286#msg916286

Effectively, you're saying that it's a huge gamble that the price of Bitcoin will go way down. He wants to sell people's coins today and pay them back with coins tomorrow, when he expects that they'll be worth less. But that doesn't work for two reasons:

1) It incurs huge, needless risk. If he's holding lots of investors' coins and the price of Bitcoin goes way up, all those profits belong to his investors, not him. If he holds 15,000 Bitcoins that have been invested and the price of Bitcoins doubles, he's much worse off. He now has to acquire Bitcoins to pay back withdrawals at twice the price. You don't hedge by holding an asset.

2) You don't need to pay 10%/month to short Bitcoins.

He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180

[JoelKatz]

He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180

The thread says he's shorting Bitcoins.

The thread says:

1) He borrows Bitcoins.

2) He sells them.

3) Later, he buys Bitcoins to pay back those he borrowed from.

That is basically the definition of shorting.

In finance, short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker) with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29

[coblee]

He's not shorting bitcoins. You should read this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82849.180

The thread says he's shorting Bitcoins.

The thread says:

1) He borrows Bitcoins.

2) He sells them.

3) Later, he buys Bitcoins to pay back those he borrowed from.

That is basically the definition of shorting.

In finance, short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets, usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker) with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_%28finance%29

Normally when you say short sell, you are talking about selling at market price and buy back in the future hopefully at a lower price. He's not doing this. He's selling bitcoin at a higher than market price and try to buy the bitcoins back at a price around market price when he sold the bitcoins.  And he hedges bitcoin price rising.

So in normal short selling, you only make money if prie goes down. In his case, he should make money either way if his hedging is done correctly.

[BoardGameCoin]

After consideration, I'm pretty sure Pirate is trading to take advantage of volatility in the market. If he can make the 'buy at x-0.10', 'sell at x +0.10' cycle (4% increase) a few times a week he easily hits his mark. It's the only legal approach that seems to fit the pattern. My guess is he has some code to help with his trading. His main risk would be a rise in bitcoin price while he's on the 'sell' side of the pattern, so he probably has a band above the sell band where he would buy back in and ride it until volatility returns.