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Author Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis  (Read 350863 times)
seleme
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October 07, 2014, 09:53:41 AM
 #21

And lot of buying energy was spent others recently too with many buyers getting burnt in the process.

In bear market like this, and in trading instrument like this, there's way more energy to sell than to buy unfortunately.

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October 07, 2014, 10:06:20 AM
 #22

And lot of buying energy was spent others recently too with many buyers getting burnt in the process.

In bear market like this, and in trading instrument like this, there's way more energy to sell than to buy unfortunately.

EW is about the crowd. the mainstream, the ignorant. they account for a huge portion of the market force. When they panic, they push the price as far as it will naturally allow. they dont do it in half measures either, its a landslide and the body of it, iii wave, only happens once, and can only happen once.  I believe that has happened and we are very close to the bottom.


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October 07, 2014, 10:34:56 AM
 #23

we are probably less than 4 hours away from some downwards volatility.



Alonzo Ewing
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October 07, 2014, 05:51:20 PM
 #24

How precise-but-inaccurate can EW be?

Can he be off by an order of magnitude?  Instead of reaching $1000 as predicted, could it go to $10000 and still be precise?

I find DanV's elliott wave analysis to precise, but not accurate. That is to say his wave count is dead on, but his price target is historically off, and he admitted himself that he doesn't fully understand the instrument of the bitcoin technology.

DanV's first BTC analysis, October 2013:

Quote
My longer term Dollar Index analysis suggest that in the next week or so we might make intermediate bottom and then retrace in possible abc zigzag to the upside which you attain the upside target of 82 - 83 area before reverting to downside. During this period I suspect the BTCUSD will likewise trade in side way range.

That's just one example of many of his off-predictions.

If you want to see how reliable a person's TA is, backtest their predictions:
https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/#search-charts=BITCOIN

DanV has gotten some predictions correct including the latest one... but if you shotgun enough darts at the board as he does, you're going hit the mark eventually.

IMO, DanV's track record shows that his wave count is consistent, but his price target is off by a mile. Good EW analyst with limited understanding of BTC's fundamentals.

 
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krb91
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October 07, 2014, 05:59:03 PM
 #25

we are probably less than 4 hours away from some downwards volatility.




So how come it's gone up, not down?


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October 07, 2014, 06:48:20 PM
 #26


So how come it's gone up, not down?



We have had the expected retracement, now it's just a matter of patience. the count is still good on a larger scale. fifth waves can be slow.

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October 07, 2014, 06:54:28 PM
 #27


So how come it's gone up, not down?



We have had the expected retracement, now it's just a matter of patience. the count is still good on a larger scale. fifth waves can be slow.


So you think the price will go down, but you cannot say when? What do you think the price will go down to?

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October 07, 2014, 07:12:23 PM
 #28

How precise-but-inaccurate can EW be?

Can he be off by an order of magnitude?  Instead of reaching $1000 as predicted, could it go to $10000 and still be precise?


He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years.

If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether.


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October 07, 2014, 07:15:11 PM
 #29


So how come it's gone up, not down?



We have had the expected retracement, now it's just a matter of patience. the count is still good on a larger scale. fifth waves can be slow.


So you think the price will go down, but you cannot say when? What do you think the price will go down to?

I cannot say exactly when. it should take less than a week. I think it will happen much sooner. After a week we will probably be in the 400s.

I have given my price target on the previous page. 270-250 is the zone to look for weakness and buy.

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October 07, 2014, 07:19:34 PM
 #30

It boggles the mind to see so many people loose their shirt believing in that chart, and it's still here. If there were a mathematical formula to know the future price then we would all be rich. Unfortunately you may as well be using a star chart, which some here will likely claim also works.

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October 07, 2014, 08:17:15 PM
 #31

He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years.

If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether.

Do you have a long term (starting in 2010) chart with the counts on it?

 
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October 07, 2014, 08:23:51 PM
 #32

It boggles the mind to see so many people loose their shirt believing in that chart, and it's still here. If there were a mathematical formula to know the future price then we would all be rich. Unfortunately you may as well be using a star chart, which some here will likely claim also works.

What you are trying to say is that the market is a zero sum game. That doesn't mean that it does not move in a natural manner describable by science and math, because nothing escapes such laws. In the market there are smart and ignorant, the emotional and the calm. Often the market offers us opportunities as wealth is distributed from one to the other. Like I've said, EW is totally falsifiable.

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October 07, 2014, 08:26:10 PM
 #33

It boggles the mind to see so many people loose their shirt believing in that chart, and it's still here. If there were a mathematical formula to know the future price then we would all be rich. Unfortunately you may as well be using a star chart, which some here will likely claim also works.

Star chart? You must be insane.

Moon chart is where its at! Wink

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October 07, 2014, 08:33:13 PM
 #34

He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years.

If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether.

Do you have a long term (starting in 2010) chart with the counts on it?



This is a widely accepted count. We cant be sure if a larger correction after wave V will be wave II or wave IV. Wave II would be absolutely phenominal.

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October 07, 2014, 08:41:27 PM
 #35

He could be well off because I think that calling the top of v is looking too far ahead, we are not in the fifth wave yet and have no clues. In the case of a fifth wave we could expect $1000 - $5000 in an extreme case. DanV wouldn't agree with the idea of a fifth wave blowout, he prefers the idea of a diminished fifth beause the III wave was so steep. $5000 is allowable within the current count, although extreme. I dont see $10,000 justifiable in the near future, but certainly possible in a few years.

If a count proves wrong, it may be absolutely wrong. In this case the count is quite strong though so I wouldn’t fore sake EW altogether.

Do you have a long term (starting in 2010) chart with the counts on it?



This is a widely accepted count. We cant be sure if a larger correction after wave V will be wave II or wave IV. Wave II would be absolutely phenominal.

How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that? Tongue

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October 07, 2014, 08:46:24 PM
 #36

How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that? Tongue

lol Dunno =P maybe wave II grand supercycle =P gotta come from somewhere

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October 07, 2014, 08:50:06 PM
 #37

How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that? Tongue

lol Dunno =P maybe wave II grand supercycle =P gotta come from somewhere


If you add it in, you will see that we either just finished the 5th (1163) or the n3xt rise to new ATH will only be a 3 for sure Wink
TV does have a script or something that adds Gox data from 2010 until the start of stamp to the beginning of the stamp chart

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October 07, 2014, 08:51:54 PM
 #38

How does the 2011 $31.9099 high play into that? Tongue

lol Dunno =P maybe wave II grand supercycle =P gotta come from somewhere


If you add it in, you will see that we either just finished the 5th (1163) or the n3xt rise to new ATH will only be a 3 for sure Wink
TV does have a script or something that adds Gox data from 2010 until the start of stamp to the beginning of the stamp chart

oh thanks didnt know that. If youv'e done the work Ill take your word for it.

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October 07, 2014, 08:53:58 PM
 #39




This is a widely accepted count. We cant be sure if a larger correction after wave V will be wave II or wave IV. Wave II would be absolutely phenominal.

Ah, I think I see.  So do you have a chart starting in 2010?  I now see that when you talk about wave V, you're talking about the bull market that started from the depths of the 2011 bear market.  So we should expect a bear market after Wave V, but in the context of the entire history of Bitcoin, there are larger waves to play out.

 
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October 07, 2014, 08:56:36 PM
 #40

Ah, I think I see.  So do you have a chart starting in 2010?  I now see that when you talk about wave V, you're talking about the bull market that started from the depths of the 2011 bear market.  So we should expect a bear market after Wave V, but in the context of the entire history of Bitcoin, there are larger waves to play out.

yeah, there is always a bigger picture.

and sorry I dont have a chart starting in 2010.

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