Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

If we get the confirmation that this is the top, could this be a longer term short?  I mean, if there's a key inflection point that tells us whether we're going to 2xx or the moon and that inflection point is like $500, it would be awesome to hedge by taking a decent short position.

No this is a strictly short term straight in straight out trade. we will talk about those key point in a day or two when wave v of this system has come and everything is clear.

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[h3speros]

what about this?

[chessnut]

what about this?

I am counting on the chines charts the liquidity makes it mech clearer.  Okcoin is leading the pack. Yeah, there could be one more wave up. thats why we need it to get rolling first.

[chessnut]

All right we have a correction here that terminates wave iii and therefore begins wave iv. We are expecting it to bottom in the vicinity of wave (iv). If wave A=C which it tends to be then a rough target is 2750. This meets criteria, however we would expect for wave iv to go deeper and span over more time as wave ii did. Buying in this area, 2750, is OK risk reward. stop would go around 2570, under wave (iv). target, around 3000 yuan. If the price action is sideways and quiet, we would look for a larger abc correction to buy lower.

EDIT - so reason number one why I expect a dead bounce here is because the hourly macd is crossing over negative now. The market is quite exhausted and needs a break, we are slumping after a parabolic rise. Okc and huobi are traing at equal price, in fact now Okc is less than huobi. this is the market maturing here.

[Afrikoin]

CRazy dump on Bitstamp! Did you guys see that? Saw it coming, wasn't sure it would bounce or drop. Some traders obviously capitalized on that.

[chessnut]

CRazy dump on Bitstamp! Did you guys see that? Saw it coming, wasn't sure it would bounce or drop. Some traders obviously capitalized on that.

yes west is dumping. If you can get your hands on some cheap western coins then do, stoploss $395. unfortunately china is a bit stingy.

[windjc]

CRazy dump on Bitstamp! Did you guys see that? Saw it coming, wasn't sure it would bounce or drop. Some traders obviously capitalized on that.

yes west is dumping. If you can get your hands on some cheap western coins then do, stoploss $395. unfortunately china is a bit stingy.

Do you have a target in China? BFX already hit 408.

[watuba]

Any thoughts on this graph?  Does the deep iv to 400 make sense?

[chessnut]

This is a great example of alternation and fourth wave correction guidelines. this wave was deep because wave ii was shallow. also, although it was extremely volatile, it could nt break support of the wave (iv), one lower degree.

The west has satisfied all necessary criteria for the wave iv correction and I believe we have bottomed in the west. likewise, china has terminated a fiver c wave, and Id assume they are equally ready to begin slowly wave v. unfortunately stoplosses in china are quite low.... about 2570

Any thoughts on this graph?  Does the deep iv to 400 make sense?

Hi watuba,

this potential wave iv correction makes sense as it was forecasted, however since the beginning of the thread I have found compelling evidence to believe we are in fact at the beginning of the next bubble cycle. wave iv, and therefore wav v is still a possibility but I think that truncated v is my dominant count.

[chessnut]

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

We should expect a fair bounce here which could very well turn into the bottom in china.

[windjc]

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

2580 is 50% fib retrace. Why would you doubt we make it that far? Because 38-50 is normal? We kinda overshot by a lot too though.

[chessnut]

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

2580 is 50% fib retrace. Why would you doubt we make it that far? Because 38-50 is normal? We kinda overshot by a lot too though.

wave iv bottoms within the wave iv of one lower degree. 2580 is the lowest. the west has brutally tested this level. good chance we just bottomed out. obviously volatile so gotta take care down here.

[podyx]

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

We should expect a fair bounce here which could very well turn into the bottom in china.

You think bitstamp will go up from here?

[watuba]

You think bitstamp will go up from here?

Last time you asked if we had topped out yet and it turned out we pretty much had.  so your asking probably makes it true 

[podyx]

You think bitstamp will go up from here?

Last time you asked if we had topped out yet and it turned out we pretty much had.  so your asking probably makes it true 

  Yeah, it was a nice call. Thanks chessnut

[watuba]

Anyone see a problem with taking smaller positions using 20x margin, and just using the margin call as your stop loss?

[podyx]

Looks like this was the bottom

[notme]

Anyone see a problem with taking smaller positions using 20x margin, and just using the margin call as your stop loss?

No problem as long as you are willing to lose it all.

[podyx]

looks like V ain't working out and my 1.5btc will be margin called 

[seleme]

looks like V ain't working out and my 1.5btc will be margin called 

Depends where is your margin call. Might bounce around soon. But after that I expect it to go further down, not immediately but soon.

This doesn't look bullish to me: