RyNinDaCleM
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Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
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November 25, 2014, 06:28:59 PM |
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Time to buy?  Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question  To me, that was a of B |
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podyx
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Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
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November 25, 2014, 06:31:03 PM |
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Time to buy? Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question To me, that was a of B What are you saying? |
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chessnut (OP)
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Activity: 924
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November 25, 2014, 06:50:00 PM |
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Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question To me, that was a of B Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably)  Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?
If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III  . otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top. Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V. |
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podyx
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Activity: 2338
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November 25, 2014, 07:01:33 PM |
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Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question To me, that was a of B Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably) Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?
If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III . otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top. Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V. Going up after we touched 2260 then? |
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 07:03:36 PM |
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Going up after we touched 2260 then?
No cant be sure of the bottom yet. Will see when we get there. |
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Afrikoin
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Activity: 1540
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alan watts is all you need
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November 25, 2014, 07:06:31 PM |
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Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question To me, that was a of B Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably) Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?
If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III . otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top. Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V. I don't think you will get straight answers. It is about elimination. |
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chessnut (OP)
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Activity: 924
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November 25, 2014, 07:11:07 PM |
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I don't think you will get straight answers. It is about elimination.
You are kinda right, a lot of the time we have to deal with ambiguity like that. Sometimes though, we are gifted clear cut counts that arent really debatable. I wish I could say with confidence exactly what is the count, but I cant. sorry! |
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podyx
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Activity: 2338
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November 25, 2014, 07:19:31 PM |
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Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 07:35:41 PM |
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Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point
I am confident that we will see more down from a slightly higher point as illustrated. |
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podyx
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November 25, 2014, 09:42:03 PM |
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I guess that this was the down move?
Back up?
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 09:48:20 PM |
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I guess that this was the down move?
Back up?
No not at all, the wave down will be far more substantial. This could be just the beginning. |
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podyx
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November 25, 2014, 09:49:41 PM |
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Oh... wow. Well I guess I'm done if you're right  |
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 09:55:44 PM |
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Oh... wow. Well I guess I'm done if you're right If you are lucky, you might get offered an exit point up higher, but if you want my advice, dont hold onto this one all the way to the bottom. You should try get out. Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point
This was a bad strategy from the start. you need to have bigger targets to initiate a trade. Unfortunately for you we do have a substantial target to the downside now which should follow the impulse. |
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podyx
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November 25, 2014, 09:57:03 PM |
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Alright, thanks man.
Hopefully we won't go sub 360
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SkyValeey
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November 25, 2014, 09:57:18 PM |
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2233 as a .618 fibo seems to be reasonable in ~24/48h
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 10:02:02 PM |
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2233 as a .618 fibo seems to be reasonable in ~24/48h
Yes and if A=C then ~2170. That seems too low, so we might get a higher reaction first, but if we break 2290 I'd have to say that c has begun. It's looking weak. |
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podyx
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November 25, 2014, 11:00:45 PM |
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I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??
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chessnut (OP)
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November 25, 2014, 11:05:49 PM |
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I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??
An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish). |
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phoenix1
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November 25, 2014, 11:18:13 PM
Last edit: November 25, 2014, 11:30:22 PM by phoenix1 |
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I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??
An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish). Is it possible that this impulse is 'a' of an expanded flat, with the local top yesterday at $389 (Stamp) being the start of 'a', the high ($395) being the top of b and this impulse being c, thereby completing the correction and being a wave iv of C ? Hypothetically speaking ... not saying it is, just asking if there is anything that rules this out. EDIT : FWIW, I am not challenging your count (it's mostly what I see too, but I can't see a clear impulse up for v on Stamp), just asking if this is a valid alternative count, however probable |
"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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podyx
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November 25, 2014, 11:18:47 PM
Last edit: November 25, 2014, 11:30:27 PM by podyx |
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I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??
An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish). Alright, so what would be your reaction if there is no wave C and we just keep going up? Or would that be the primary wave you mentioned? Maybe this is possible?  |
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