Critical Levels - EW analysis

[podyx]

And after retrace to 2440?

I need more price action to say. Cant be sure where a triangle fits in here at the moment.

Ok, you think okcoin futures will go sub 400?

How sure are you that we'll go down btw??

[1715471822]

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[1715471822]

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[1715471822]

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[chessnut]

And after retrace to 2440?

I need more price action to say. Cant be sure where a triangle fits in here at the moment.

Ok, you think okcoin futures will go sub 400?

How sure are you that we'll go down btw??

Not sure we will go down to 2440, probably not sub 400 on futures for some time even if this is a reversal. What a triangle means is that we have hit a juncture of one higher fractal. corrections may be shallow, but what it most likely means is we will not make much more upside progress for some time. with risk of a long time of sidways action and potential dip to 2440 its not a great time to buy is all im saying. Im certainly not saying holders should sell all and certainly I would not suggest to short this beast.

[Phillis]

i am not sure a retrace to 2440 will even happen, it certainly doesn't look like that will at the moment. looks like the 4h macd will cross, if the price holds for a few more hours.

[chessnut]

i am not sure a retrace to 2440 will even happen, it certainly doesn't look like that will at the moment.

Yeah the market is fairly strong, but all I am saying is we should have a period of correction of a higher fractal than the triangle. a fair bit of time sideways. 2440 is not out of the question.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Is this a valid count?



I tried mapping the waves since the rise from 369 with the assumption that it was impulse. However, I could only distinguish 3 waves within the first subwave, and again 3 within the first on one larger fractal, and so figured they are (a) and A respectively and that the rise may in fact be corrective The current top is also fairly consistent with a 1.618 C-wave ratio.

If valid, do you think an (A)(B)(C) (to ~445?) and the formation of a larger triangle since the 454 drop is plausible scenario, or am I overdoing it with the fractals?

(also sorry if the labeling order is off, still trying to get my head around it)

[chessnut]

Is this a valid count?

Yes it is valid and worth tracking. Not sure how it fits in with the bigger picture however.

[Phillis]

welp 2440 just hit.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Is this a valid count?

Yes it is valid and worth tracking. Not sure how it fits in with the bigger picture however.

Like this possibly

[var53]

A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.

Thanks for the timely warning. I exited my position because of it at $408.

[chessnut]

This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.

[var53]

This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.

50 thousand silk road bitcoins are being auctioned in early December. Could this have a massive effect on the price?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

[lebing]

This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.

50 thousand silk road bitcoins are being auctioned in early December. Could this have a massive effect on the price?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

Very deep, patient pockets are likely to be picking them up (people like Tim draper, second market, Pantera etc). So no, I highly doubt it.

[madmat]

This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.

Could you provide a graphical count ?

[var53]

Very deep, patient pockets are likely to be picking them up (people like Tim draper, second market, Pantera etc). So no, I highly doubt it.

It ironically helped push the price up after the last auction.

[BuildTheFuture]

50 thousand silk road bitcoins are being auctioned in early December. Could this have a massive effect on the price?

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/

Very deep, patient pockets are likely to be picking them up (people like Tim draper, second market, Pantera etc). So no, I highly doubt it.

Will be interesting how it plays out compared to the last auction announcement in June. After that announcement the market bottomed out pretty quick in a day or so and then went up.

[RoadTrain]

Hi, chessnut.
If this move to 2xx happens, is it expected (or required) to break the previous low (275-280)?

[Carra23]

This price action is enough to assume we are in wave V to 2xx which couls take some weeks. Ill begin tracking soon.

Finally, the one which I have been waiting for. Bold prediction, lets see if it comes true.

[chessnut]

Hi, chessnut.
If this move to 2xx happens, is it expected (or required) to break the previous low (275-280)?

Good question, no it is not required to break it, but I have not an expectation for it to break/not break 275.

[chessnut]

we have begun an impulse. this could be part of a larger impulse system. Lets see what happens when it bounces.

[BldSwtTrs]

we have begun an impulse. this could be part of a larger impulse system. Lets see what happens when it bounces.

How do you see it's an implusle?