Critical Levels - EW analysis

[btcney]

We have a clear break out of the descending channel. Our stop loss was not hit by 6yuan! critical levels indeed!

.... we can now move our stops up to 2056 yuan.

LOL

[Bicmac1973]

Hi chessnut, you make an awesome job in my opinion and this is one of the most valuable threads on bitcointalk. We have some interesting price action on huobi at the moment and there seems to be strong resistance at 1960. Do you think a bullish or bearish scenario is more probable? By the way, I know that probability and certainty are not the same.
PS: please do not clutter the thread by citing irrelevant bullshit from trolls like btcney.

[seleme]

There is nothing wrong in being wrong (well escept for our wallets, lol), it's rare to be right each time. I just don't like that EW is often presented like some kind of holy grail by it's fans yet they change their mind and counts 5 times before they hit the trade. Other TA often doesn't have such luxury and gets disregarded pretty fast. EW does have it, guess it's complexity makes it elite.

What I noticed is that EW is pretty good in long time predictions, there are several EW analysts that had great longer period calls in Bitcoin. No other analysts were as good as EW ones to predict 300-400 area when we were at $800, several EWers did. Lucif was very, very good even before though he does use more tools then average EWer.

But short ones? Not so sure about it. And even the right ones are mostly due to use of fibs, not really waves as in 90% of cases they don't have idea what count it is until it's over but make it due to fibs. You don't need EW to know that OTE area is often rewarded with profit in the future.

I even remember when Chessnut started using EW  

[madmat]

Hi chessnut, you make an awesome job in my opinion and this is one of the most valuable threads on bitcointalk. We have some interesting price action on huobi at the moment and there seems to be strong resistance at 1960. Do you think a bullish or bearish scenario is more probable? By the way, I know that probability and certainty are not the same.
PS: please do not clutter the thread by citing irrelevant bullshit from trolls like btcney.

Trolls?
He's wrong on almost every call, yet he's somehow in a mysterious "lucrative winning streak" and is acting extremley defensive.

Please go away if you are not interested.

[sidhujag]

Use a stoploss for a reason

[watuba]

New to EW, so just trying to understand.  When I look at the 3day chart, it looks like a triangle has formed recently.  I read that triangles always signify an upcoming reversal in the underlying trend.  Is that applicable here?

[Raystonn]

Realise this: If you make public your positions and plans, you can expect others to try to make money at your expense.  Publicly announced stop losses will be hunted and/or frontrun.  Publicly announced points of entry will be hunted and/or frontrun.  Once you find something that works, keep it a secret to help your edge last as long as possible.  Professional traders now act in these markets.  Adapt or die.

[chessnut]

Realise this: If you make public your positions and plans, you can expect others to try to make money at your expense.  Publicly announced stop losses will be hunted and/or frontrun.  Publicly announced points of entry will be hunted and/or frontrun.  Once you find something that works, keep it a secret to help your edge last as long as possible.  Professional traders now act in these markets.  Adapt or die.

Its true to some extent but EW is about irrational behaviour, we make money when the crowd makes mistakes. If my advise is to sell bitcoin at a competitive price to somebody who is willing pay an irrationally high price, then overall I have only reduced market action. The winners win less, and more importantly to me, the losers lose less.
Quite simply if I stop winning I will leave the forum.

[windjc]

There is nothing wrong in being wrong (well escept for our wallets, lol), it's rare to be right each time. I just don't like that EW is often presented like some kind of holy grail by it's fans yet they change their mind and counts 5 times before they hit the trade. Other TA often doesn't have such luxury and gets disregarded pretty fast. EW does have it, guess it's complexity makes it elite.

What I noticed is that EW is pretty good in long time predictions, there are several EW analysts that had great longer period calls in Bitcoin. No other analysts were as good as EW ones to predict 300-400 area when we were at $800, several EWers did. Lucif was very, very good even before though he does use more tools then average EWer.

But short ones? Not so sure about it. And even the right ones are mostly due to use of fibs, not really waves as in 90% of cases they don't have idea what count it is until it's over but make it due to fibs. You don't need EW to know that OTE area is often rewarded with profit in the future.

I even remember when Chessnut started using EW  

I would tend to agree with this. I have learned a helluva a lot with this last retrace off of 275. Did not trade it well at all, but have a much more fuller understanding of factors to weigh.

The thing that makes bitcoin tricky, is because of the finite amount, it can potentially go full bull very quickly (although one might argue that 2013 was no surprise given the halving in late 2012).  If it weren't for that, I think we'd probably all short to the max and go on vacation for 6 months.

But I am very thankful for my mistakes these last couple of weeks, although, I don't think, even with those, I have come out behind.

[chessnut]

From an EW perspective, can a count be invalidated by simply dumping through an important support? So that it changes sentiment?

In other words, how does EW factor in manipulations?

The bigger picture cannot be manipulated or quickly changed. Nobody has the power to corner the market at price extremes, and so EW is very effective on the larger picture. The smaller time frames are increasingly vulnerable to volatility, but the price has no choice but to find a valid way to get from A to B.

In this case, the price needs to get to mid 200s. It seems like it wants to take a different path there than I expected, but the bigger picture demands it. So I would not say sentiment has changed as such.

Considering that EW is based on irrational behaviour of the crowd, we are usually on the right side of the manipulators.

[Carra23]

All these arguments are very fascinating, but whats the current diagnosis? I feel that it still looks bad but there may be a small bounce and we have now achieved a local minima. Not putting money on it yet.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

All these arguments are very fascinating, but I whats the current diagnosis? I feel that it still looks bad but there may be a small bounce and we have now achieved a local minima. Not putting money on it yet.

Nice username mate.
We are awful atm
I am dreading Tuesday.

[chessnut]

All these arguments are very fascinating, but whats the current diagnosis? I feel that it still looks bad but there may be a small bounce and we have now achieved a local minima. Not putting money on it yet.

There is not always a diagnosis. I am not going to force one, that would be a terrible mistake. Time will tell.

I am looking to the short side.... seems as though wave V is under way at a guess. I may refer to Queeq's chart.

[chessnut]

So Im not sure of the bigger picture right now, but this impulse cycle to the downside seems complete or ready to bounce. We should expect around 0.382 retrace.

This is not a bounce to trade long.... just something watch. Depending on how far it bounces and the manner in which it bounces it will give us clues about what is happening.

[chessnut]

I dont like to trade the 1m charts, but counting the 1m can fine tune some great bigger trades. we have a clean triangle count b wave where we are expecting an abc correction. This does mean we are correcting and that the trend is down. Im going to sell the top of wave C when it turns simply because of risk/reward scalp and how reliable triangles are as terminal signals. I cannot be sure of the bigger picture still.

[chessnut]

here is a fitting idea for our larger count that explains the recent failure of out wave c(IV) count..... I do not have confidence in it yet but it is an idea I am following.

I mentioned further back in the thread that wave major V would likely be truncated because wave III was over extended.

Using ideas from Queeqs count to explain an impulsive wave from 2500 yuan, we have a large Impulsive count almost completed at this time. This complete impulsive count would be far too large to be a Primary wave of V, so it could be quite possible that wave V in this case is almost complete and we are very close to major lows.

within this count we have wave iv triangle, same one as we traded from 2050 yuan. Triangles occur in the position of wave b or wave iv. In this case, it is in wave iv, meaning we are more than half way through one cycle and closer to a bottom. of coarse wave v of a primary wave may be considered a bottom of sorts too, but this information helps us a lot.

If we fall weakly from this point to form a bottom nearby and rally significantly we will have to watch carefully how it rallies. A rally past 2500 yuan by this count confirms that major lows are in and a bubble to $1000+ may have begun.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Upthread I asked you why the rise to 2500 wasn't "IV", and you had some concerns, and it looks like you've changed your stance a bit.  I know very little about Elliot Wave, but after nearly two decades of speculating, I've seen some of the same patterns repeat, and right now, it looks like we are in the final stages of a cyclical bear market, much like the stock markets were in during Feb 2009.  Also, this drop from 2500 looks like a mini fractal of the same pattern that took us from the prior bubble peak down to 2200 and then from 4000 down to 1800.  In prior cycles, 3 repetitions of the fractal pattern generally signals the end of that large movement.

The only thing I would consider differently is I wouldn't rule out a break below the recent lows at 1800 just to shake out more weak hands.  Perhaps even below $260 on the US markets would cause everyone to say, "We've fallen below the penultimate bubble peak, something that's never happened before!  This is the end of Bitcoin!"  That would be the end of the bear market.

[chessnut]

Upthread I asked you why the rise to 2500 wasn't "IV", and you had some concerns, and it looks like you've changed your stance a bit.  I know very little about Elliot Wave, but after nearly two decades of speculating, I've seen some of the same patterns repeat, and right now, it looks like we are in the final stages of a cyclical bear market, much like the stock markets were in during Feb 2009.  Also, this drop from 2500 looks like a mini fractal of the same pattern that took us from the prior bubble peak down to 2200 and then from 4000 down to 1800.  In prior cycles, 3 repetitions of the fractal pattern generally signals the end of that large movement.

The only thing I would consider differently is I wouldn't rule out a break below the recent lows at 1800 just to shake out more weak hands.  Perhaps even below $260 on the US markets would cause everyone to say, "We've fallen below the penultimate bubble peak, something that's never happened before!  This is the end of Bitcoin!"  That would be the end of the bear market.

Yes, I have had to change my stance. This is the best as I can fit the puzzle. Everything you say is true. We cant rule out fresh lows. We do have a fair amount of evidence though that has been building up, so it is much more than a guessing game to me. At this critical stage I'll use every shred of evidence I have to plan forward many coarse of action. There are a few things we can expect to happen at these levels that will give us a killer edge at picking this bottom.

[chessnut]

here is a fitting idea for our larger count that explains the recent failure of out wave c(IV) count..... I do not have confidence in it yet but it is an idea I am following.

I mentioned further back in the thread that wave major V would likely be truncated because wave III was over extended.

Using ideas from Queeqs count to explain an impulsive wave from 2500 yuan, we have a large Impulsive count almost completed at this time. This complete impulsive count would be far too large to be a Primary wave of V, so it could be quite possible that wave V in this case is almost complete and we are very close to major lows.

within this count we have wave iv triangle, same one as we traded from 2050 yuan. Triangles occur in the position of wave b or wave iv. In this case, it is in wave iv, meaning we are more than half way through one cycle and closer to a bottom. of coarse wave v of a primary wave may be considered a bottom of sorts too, but this information helps us a lot.

If we fall weakly from this point to form a bottom nearby and rally significantly we will have to watch carefully how it rallies. A rally past 2500 yuan by this count confirms that major lows are in and a bubble to $1000+ may have begun.



reposting this on the new page because it is important to this thread.

[chessnut]

This trade is going to plan. And since it is going to plan, it will more than likely continue.

I dont like to trade the 1m charts, but counting the 1m can fine tune some great bigger trades. we have a clean triangle count b wave where we are expecting an abc correction. This does mean we are correcting and that the trend is down. Im going to sell the top of wave C when it turns simply because of risk/reward scalp and how reliable triangles are as terminal signals. I cannot be sure of the bigger picture still.