Critical Levels - EW analysis

[bigtimespaghetti]

Question?

What happens when most traders in a market are aware of EW cycles and actively look out for them. Does this affect how EW effect on price? What happens when all of us/most have a clue of price direction next.

My opinion is its effect will be diluted, I am open to being swayed though

Are most traders that trade markets aware of EW though? And if they were/are, this would magnify at key areas? I only have a basic understanding of market psychology though.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Question?

What happens when most traders in a market are aware of EW cycles and actively look out for them. Does this affect how EW effect on price? What happens when all of us/most have a clue of price direction next.

My opinion is its effect will be diluted, I am open to being swayed though

Are most traders that trade markets aware of EW though? And if they were/are, this would magnify at key areas? I only have a basic understanding of market psychology though.

I would say that most traders that put forth the effort to learn any TA will also at least know of EW (not that they'll take the time to learn and apply it). Many write it off as voodoo while following their own systems in their path of irony.
If too many people follow EW, it can be a problem IF they are all on the exact same count. This is because they will begin to front run one another until it moves the market adversely for you and in favor for someone else's count. If they are not on identical counts, then it's all fine since they will have targets at different points, and effectively help EW do what it does.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Question?

What happens when most traders in a market are aware of EW cycles and actively look out for them. Does this affect how EW effect on price? What happens when all of us/most have a clue of price direction next.

My opinion is its effect will be diluted, I am open to being swayed though

Are most traders that trade markets aware of EW though? And if they were/are, this would magnify at key areas? I only have a basic understanding of market psychology though.

I would say that most traders that put forth the effort to learn any TA will also at least know of EW (not that they'll take the time to learn and apply it). Many write it off as voodoo while following their own systems in their path of irony.
If too many people follow EW, it can be a problem IF they are all on the exact same count. This is because they will begin to front run one another until it moves the market adversely for you and in favor for someone else's count. If they are not on identical counts, then it's all fine since they will have targets at different points, and effectively help EW do what it does.

Sorry I wasn't very clear, thanks for the following. I'm just wondering if the level of influence of day traders on the Bitcoin price is equal to, less than or greater than the speculators influence, that use TA, including EW.

[BombaUcigasa]

What happens when most traders in a market are aware of EW cycles and actively look out for them.

It just happened this summer. There will be many reversals and the market appears to go the other way mid-way through a trend.

[chessnut]

Hopefully we can touch $280 first and see sub 300 prices for the last time

Never trust hope

Question?

What happens when most traders in a market are aware of EW cycles and actively look out for them. Does this affect how EW effect on price? What happens when all of us/most have a clue of price direction next.

My opinion is its effect will be diluted, I am open to being swayed though

Its obviously an important question that anyone who understands the principle must ask. Two truths apply here imo, the market is self conscious and that makes it difficult to trade in cycles and waves, just like how EW is applied to the market its self yet less measurable. Yet all the EW analysts in the world could not have (and would not have) stopped the mania that drove the price of bitoin to an irrational $1100 dollars in december 2013. Nothing can be taken for granted with the market, yet history tells that mankind has yet much to evolve.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Nothing can be taken for granted with the market, yet history tells that mankind has yet much to evolve.

Reading extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds atm, could not agree more.

[Afrikoin]

Nothing can be taken for granted with the market, yet history tells that mankind has yet much to evolve.

Reading extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds atm, could not agree more.

`

i am in good company! I'll add that to 2015s reading list.

I am reading irrational exuberance and a lot of human bias stuff - ariely,kahneman.

you must have all seen this https://medium.com/@BTCsx/can-elliott-waves-really-predict-the-price-of-bitcoin-970ca430c7ff?source=email-8c27bb4274c5-1420171314130-daily_digest  Got me thinking

[SmoothCurves]

This guy's chart was remarkably accurate: https://www.tradingview.com/v/pq2k6uCL/

[prophetx]

This guy's chart was remarkably accurate: https://www.tradingview.com/v/pq2k6uCL/

there is also a very long long term support line (going back to $2) that crosses over with the shorter term ceiling line around March 15.

i've been waiting for this day for months now.  not sure what is the rocket fuel, but something will have to feed/give... the mass adoption if/when it happens should go faster than the adoption of mobile phones... as they say it is a lot easier to built multi-billion $ companies now then it was 20 years ago, 50 years ago, etc.

it might be possible that this support line will be broken possibly, it has not be tested in years, and the fundamentals of the thing have changed since then with the cost of regulation, whereas bitcoin was meant to function outside of regulatory frameworks, more person to person.  that is no longer the case since the developers failed to address scaling problems. but we shall see.



btw guys if you like private, secure msg'ing please try this out

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please use referral from "dom" so i get some free gems... iOS coming soon...

[chessnut]

We will probably see a flat correction here before a bit more down.



Do not despair of this bearish price action. So this is not an ending diagonal fifth, and it is not impulsive in the medium term picture - which can only be good for bulls longer term. This is consistent with a count of DanV that I posted a few moths ago now, that larger wave C is an ending diagonal. Not unlike tooty frooties chart published above.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

I am confident as I have been since this thread began that we will bottom above $200. Wave V is reaching a conclusion no matter which way you look at it. It is only a couple of months before the next rally begins that will take us easily to $700 and possibly to a new ATH.

[Afrikoin]

We will probably see a flat correction here before a bit more down.



Do not despair of this bearish price action. So this is not an ending diagonal fifth, and it is not impulsive in the medium term picture - which can only be good for bulls longer term. This is consistent with a count of DanV that I posted a few moths ago now, that larger wave C is an ending diagonal. Not unlike tooty frooties chart published above.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

I am confident as I have been since this thread began that we will bottom above $200. Wave V is reaching a conclusion no matter which way you look at it. It is only a couple of months before the next rally begins that will take us easily to $700 and possibly to a new ATH.

time frame?

[SmoothCurves]

We will probably see a flat correction here before a bit more down.



Do not despair of this bearish price action. So this is not an ending diagonal fifth, and it is not impulsive in the medium term picture - which can only be good for bulls longer term. This is consistent with a count of DanV that I posted a few moths ago now, that larger wave C is an ending diagonal. Not unlike tooty frooties chart published above.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

I am confident as I have been since this thread began that we will bottom above $200. Wave V is reaching a conclusion no matter which way you look at it. It is only a couple of months before the next rally begins that will take us easily to $700 and possibly to a new ATH.

Any thoughts on this analysis? : https://www.tradingview.com/v/wKC6VHKi/

[RyNinDaCleM]

Any thoughts on this analysis? : https://www.tradingview.com/v/wKC6VHKi/

I have a question...
What about the $31.9099 high in 2011 from Gox? It's what happened before the $1.994 low (2.22 on stamp) in January 2012. I know it's not on any stamp chart, but it still exists and it's unaccounted for.

[Alonzo Ewing]

We will probably see a flat correction here before a bit more down.



Do not despair of this bearish price action. So this is not an ending diagonal fifth, and it is not impulsive in the medium term picture - which can only be good for bulls longer term. This is consistent with a count of DanV that I posted a few moths ago now, that larger wave C is an ending diagonal. Not unlike tooty frooties chart published above.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

I am confident as I have been since this thread began that we will bottom above $200. Wave V is reaching a conclusion no matter which way you look at it. It is only a couple of months before the next rally begins that will take us easily to $700 and possibly to a new ATH.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one level above the A-B-C in the chart, we just finished wave 3, not 5, and that 5 should take another month or so to complete.

[eboard10]

This is my count on Houbi. Yesterday's low was a wave 3 which means we have an upwards retracement to circa 1917 before the last downward move.

PS: If you're a long-term investor (i.e. you're happy to wait 6+ months), then anything under $300 is a gift.

[SmoothCurves]

Any thoughts on this analysis? : https://www.tradingview.com/v/wKC6VHKi/

I have a question...
What about the $31.9099 high in 2011 from Gox? It's what happened before the $1.994 low (2.22 on stamp) in January 2012. I know it's not on any stamp chart, but it still exists and it's unaccounted for.

Good question. Anyone here have any thoughts on that?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Any thoughts on this analysis? : https://www.tradingview.com/v/wKC6VHKi/

I have a question...
What about the $31.9099 high in 2011 from Gox? It's what happened before the $1.994 low (2.22 on stamp) in January 2012. I know it's not on any stamp chart, but it still exists and it's unaccounted for.

Good question. Anyone here have any thoughts on that?

I posted this somewhere, maybe not this thread though. It shows the two realistic options that we have right now. It is entirely possible that $1163 was the top of a wave-1 and we are in 2. But it's not the only option. Both options have us either going up a lot, or a heluva lot.


The black count would imply about 3 years of the most epic of Bull runs

[Queeq]

Isn't supposed wave (II) of black count has too small retracement to be true? Second waves usually end in the territory of previous subwave 4 which is around $100 for black count. Also fibos... Haven't measured them, but at the first sight retracement looks too small as well.

[Alonzo Ewing]

Any thoughts on this count posted on cryptocoinsnews?



He ignores the rise from $5-->$15 in mid 2012.  But what I find interesting is that the current IV is the same "level" as the prior II, and to me, this makes sense because the last time sentiment was this extreme was at the end of the prior II.

Source: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-plunges-decline-lows/

[eboard10]

Any thoughts on this count posted on cryptocoinsnews?

He ignores the rise from $5-->$15 in mid 2012.  But what I find interesting is that the current IV is the same "level" as the prior II, and to me, this makes sense because the last time sentiment was this extreme was at the end of the prior II.

Source: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-plunges-decline-lows/

Yes, he is ignoring the rise which is a big mistake. The red count posted by Queeq is the most likely one so far. I posted that same count a while back on another thread, though my analysis was a bit rough:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555289.msg6255110#msg6255110

We could still be looking at a $4000+ top for the next spike. The correction that will follow will be very long and quite deep.