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Author Topic: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that.  (Read 38319 times)
iammagicmike
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April 16, 2013, 01:44:25 PM
 #121

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.

It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything.

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April 16, 2013, 05:14:25 PM
 #122

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.

I'll go to your concert Smiley Show them that in the end Alternate Virtual Currencies are here to stay Smiley

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April 16, 2013, 05:57:02 PM
 #123

I want bitcoin be 1000$
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April 16, 2013, 08:00:42 PM
 #124

It is worth what people are willing to pay for it right now...no more and no less.  So you think it is "really" worth $1000 when everyone else thinks it is worth $64 Huh?  Cheesy

Ok nothing wrong with living in your fantasy land but you have to open to people pointing this out on occasion, which is what I'm doing here.  

BTC is worth $64.58 and the moment and it will see $30 before it sees $300.  Of course in a few years, we could see the collapse of a major currency and another BTC bubble could form, but that is a different subject.  That is then and this is now and BTC is not worth $1000...not remotely close to it.

Well, if it is worth what people will pay, how do you come up with $64.58? I mean you don't back that with anything, sort of ironic?  Roll Eyes

There are roughly 11 million bitcoins right now, that is nothing in financial terms. Just for comparisons sake, Amazon has 452 million outstanding shares. And now with bitcoin we are talking about a currency / commodity / technology. We really don't know what we are dealing with here. Now, I'm not saying Bitcoin is Amzn, but in times of financial worry, a new currency that protects people from the goverment might be one of the more worthwhile stores of value around. Most of the bitcoins being held by the early adopters are doing that - being held. The available trading volume is quite small. Now VC money is moving in. Not to mention there is still a huge waiting line for account confirmations at MTGOX (and I am not pro Gox).

Just doing some simple math and looking at the probable supply being much much less than 11 million, would put the bit coin price much higher. The recent run up showed that. Now, it looks like something is up in the USD world - The vast amount of puts hitting gold lately is very suspicious, especially considering the time and that 2 very large mines (one in Utah) are offline. The US Bond market can be hit any day now, many economists have called it. So, you can't look at bitcoin using traditional value.

I think Bitcoin is an intermediary to where we are really going (moneywise), but in the meantime, money might start flooding into bitcoin. I don't think governments will take it lightly, but I also think they (and us) will have bigger things to worry about if more banks start pulling a Cyprus...

IMS

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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April 16, 2013, 08:09:40 PM
 #125

Well, if it is worth what people will pay, how do you come up with $64.58? I mean you don't back that with anything, sort of ironic?  Roll Eyes

That was the market price when I typed that.  Since then, it went down to $50 and then up to $80 and now back down to $65.88 at this moment.

Anyway this volatility kills its use of being a viable currency.  I bought some BTC on MtGox and transferred it to Bitstamp and in the 20 minutes it took to transfer, the price dropped 10% on me.  Imagine if you deposit money into your bank and it drops 10% before you can even use it...very very bad.

BTC is a great idea, but it wasn't executed well enough.  It will never widely be used as a currency but perhaps it will change the world by inspiring someone else to create a virtual currency that works better as currency.

And I love Bitcoin and all you guys are smarter than me for getting into it so early because you probably made a lot of profit at this point.  For me, it is a fun daytrading instrument to speculate on.  But back to the original point, it isn't worth $1000, it's worth $65.40 now.    

I'm not saying it won't ever get to $1000 as who knows what a major currency crisis could do for it with more speculation and another bubble forming.  But it's not worth $1000 now unless you can find someone who will give you $1000 for 1 BTC.
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April 16, 2013, 10:46:49 PM
 #126

Exchanges and funds (in the united states) with the ability to leverage and short bitcoin will draw down volatility - at least in theory.

I believe too many people have discounted the Winklevii factor and I'm betting with the twins.
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April 16, 2013, 10:57:09 PM
 #127

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency. 

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained. 

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April 17, 2013, 08:45:37 AM
 #128

tcio and caiaphas - I think we are confusing the issue here. First, I really doubt that any bitcoin proponent would say that bitcoin is ready to be a stable currency, for many reasons. But key word is "stable". As you said caiaphas, it is too volatile. But the reasons it is volatile are because it is new, the currency markets all over the world are a mess (as are the bond markets), etc. In a sense bitcoin is reflecting that uncertainty (and there isn't a military behind it.  Grin )

The confusion arises in misplacing our saying whether or not it is ready NOW as a currency/commodity/trade unit, with where it will be once things settle down. It is in the EARLY, very early stages. Think back to the internet when Amazon was $5 a share. That is where we are now. Maybe even more like .20 being that this is a currency and doesn't "split" to allow for growth and liquidity. Our liquidity is in decimal places.

And caiaphas, most merchants dealing with bitcoins immediately trade them for dollars/Euros/etc. and don't hold them as bitcoins. Now, once it does develop into a currency and is stable, relatively so, then that will change. For now, this is a part of the process.

With Bitcoins small float, if it is successful, YOU WILL NEED JUST ONE. Think about what I mean by that.

A thousand dollar valuation when there are only 11 million shares right now is nothing, absolutely nothing. We can't look at it as worth $1000, but rather do the math. There just aren't enough of them to be that "cheap". We will definitely be trading bitcoins in fractions.

Now, at this time there is speculation and that is partially why the price is where it is. But the coming collapse of many global currencies along with what looks like near hyperinflation, means that saying bitcoin is worth $1000 is not really saying much. Once that inflation starts hitting us, then you will see the price explode, but it won't be as meaningful, it will be like the 1920's level inflation in Germany. (e.g. - Coins worth 1DM were then minted to be 500 or more!)

IMS

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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April 17, 2013, 10:25:01 PM
 #129

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency.  

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.  

The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.

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April 18, 2013, 04:42:35 AM
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Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Bitpay turns bitcoin into a payment processor using the protocol aspect. It matters not what the price of bitcoin is then, does it?  Thanks for making my point.  Bitcoin has little value if not for the USD.  My point is that no vendor in their right mind is going to accept bitcoin as a currency.  It's too volatile.


The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.


Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.  Once the world discovers bitcoins are only useful for gambling and illegal substances, it's true value will be discovered.  Which in my opinion is way below $1000.  Let's meet up again in 20 years and see who has won.
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April 18, 2013, 04:53:37 AM
 #131

Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty (...)

So far no argument as to why it has value.

(...) and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.

What? Gold is a soft metal and is heavy as sh*t. Really not a good engineering resource.

Some electronics perhaps? Ok, how much should gold cost based on that?
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April 18, 2013, 05:36:33 AM
 #132


Have you heard of financial instruments called options? If that's too cumbersome, have you heard of service providers like bitpay?

Bitpay turns bitcoin into a payment processor using the protocol aspect. It matters not what the price of bitcoin is then, does it?  Thanks for making my point.  Bitcoin has little value if not for the USD.  My point is that no vendor in their right mind is going to accept bitcoin as a currency.  It's too volatile.

You are correct. Bitpay in its current form is simply competition for paypal. It's currently a little cheaper, it can be anonymous and has no chargeback risk, but it might not scale well and the decentralized nature is not really necessary in this case. Paypal can simply lower its fees to outcompete bitpay.

I'm not really sure what your point is. You say it's that no vendor in his right mind is going to accept bitcoin. That's like saying (in the early 90s) noone in his right mind is going to use email because not enough other people are using it. Email has little value without a printer and scanner. Well guess what: we're not sending so many faxes any more, are we?

The volatility will decrease.


The only reason gold is above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained.


Wrong.  Gold is real, physical, shiny, pretty and has many uses in the real world that determines its price.  Once the world discovers bitcoins are only useful for gambling and illegal substances, it's true value will be discovered.  Which in my opinion is way below $1000.  

Corporeality, shiny- and prettyness are not necessary features of a money and these properties surely don't determine the price of gold. Do you think people and central banks fill their vaults with gold and take it out every day to look at it and this gives them so much satisfaction that they need more and more gold to look at?

Once the world discovers gold is only useful for looking at it, its true value will be discovered, which in my opinion is way below $10.

No man, it really doesn't seem to work like that. There must be something else that gives gold its value >$10. There must be something else that gives bitcoin a greater value than $1 ($1 would likely suffice to support all gambling and silkroad and wordpress).

Let's meet up again in 20 years and see who has won.

ok

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April 18, 2013, 08:17:46 AM
 #133

all asics out > high diff > bitcoin over 300$+?

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April 18, 2013, 08:56:37 AM
 #134

A couple of months ago I did a calculation. If 21 million Bitcoins are to take the place of the current global money supply (expressed in contemporary US$), what would BTC 1 be worth? The answer, at that time, was around US$50,000. Needless to say, this made me hot.

Huh, that's funny. When I did that calculation I came up with US$2.6M/bitcoin. What was your valuation of the global money supply. Maybe the difference is that I used an estimate of the value of the global economy.

Ouch. I'm at least off by an order of magnitude, probably closer to two. $50k x 21m = $1 trillion, plus change. US GDP is something like 12x that, so I'm way off in terms of calculating the money supply. http://www.themarketoracle.biz/Article5460.html gives $60 trillion for M3 in 2008, so assuming that M3 is the right number to look at then the per BTC value should be something more like $2.86M/BTC, a lot closer to your figure. And if Bitcoin replaced all M3 currency today, BTC 1 =~ $9.53 million.

Buy and hold, people. Go long Cheesy
Bitcoin is worth for both short and long time deposit, therefore M3 is more appropriate to consider.
So by 1BTC=1.000 USD this year bitcoin would hold only 0.01% of the world money supply.

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April 18, 2013, 09:08:14 AM
 #135

Agree with tclo

Bitcoin's current utility does not justify a high valuation and volatility makes it a sucky currency. 

If you were a vendor, would you accept bitcoins in exchange for real goods knowing the value can drop 50% overnight?  I wouldn't.  Look at http://bitcoinstore.com.  Prices are simply USD converted to BTC every time you refresh the page.  So any orders taken when price was $270 robbed this vendor big time.

Current utility is based on gambling services, illegal products and a handful of legitimate uses.  The only reason we're above $10 is pure speculation on future value which can't be sustained. 



Bitpay cashes out Bitcoin payments instantly. Read about it.
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April 18, 2013, 09:09:20 AM
 #136

tcio and caiaphas - I think we are confusing the issue here. First, I really doubt that any bitcoin proponent would say that bitcoin is ready to be a stable currency, for many reasons. But key word is "stable". As you said caiaphas, it is too volatile. But the reasons it is volatile are because it is new, the currency markets all over the world are a mess (as are the bond markets), etc. In a sense bitcoin is reflecting that uncertainty (and there isn't a military behind it.  Grin )

The confusion arises in misplacing our saying whether or not it is ready NOW as a currency/commodity/trade unit, with where it will be once things settle down. It is in the EARLY, very early stages. Think back to the internet when Amazon was $5 a share. That is where we are now. Maybe even more like .20 being that this is a currency and doesn't "split" to allow for growth and liquidity. Our liquidity is in decimal places.

And caiaphas, most merchants dealing with bitcoins immediately trade them for dollars/Euros/etc. and don't hold them as bitcoins. Now, once it does develop into a currency and is stable, relatively so, then that will change. For now, this is a part of the process.

With Bitcoins small float, if it is successful, YOU WILL NEED JUST ONE. Think about what I mean by that.

A thousand dollar valuation when there are only 11 million shares right now is nothing, absolutely nothing. We can't look at it as worth $1000, but rather do the math. There just aren't enough of them to be that "cheap". We will definitely be trading bitcoins in fractions.

Now, at this time there is speculation and that is partially why the price is where it is. But the coming collapse of many global currencies along with what looks like near hyperinflation, means that saying bitcoin is worth $1000 is not really saying much. Once that inflation starts hitting us, then you will see the price explode, but it won't be as meaningful, it will be like the 1920's level inflation in Germany. (e.g. - Coins worth 1DM were then minted to be 500 or more!)

IMS

You're thinking 5 years from now in 2020.
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April 18, 2013, 09:41:28 AM
 #137

When you can see a future value on something you buy it before it hit's that price. future value of bitcoin  mathematically is much more than $1000. so you would buy bitcoins now for a bargain and sit on your investment in the software for 6 to 12 months. It's going to be funny when all these haters who where saying bitcoin is worth nothing are down in the history books as the guys who failed badly. People where saying the same stuff to me at $0.70 and now they don't say a word. the whole way they have said it's to late to buy now $5. to late $10. to late $30. to late lol
$1000 to late 

Some of my friends have similar reactions.  When it was $15-$20 range I started talking to friends and I would only say "hey brah, check out Bitcoin, I'd suggest looking into it."  I never gave any financial advice, but when they asked me I told them I was buying it.  I'd explain the currency as best as I could (I have been studying it for several months, not an expert but I can answer 90% of anyones questions with ease). 

After explaining I'd have people that NEVER HEARD OF IT BEFORE suddenly become experts and explain to me why I'm a fucking idiot.  This was at <$20/BTC.  I'd waste my time arguing and they would googlefu bitcoin and email me an article that some guy wrote about the 2011 crash "bitcoin is bad, mmmkay, don't do bitcoin".  To this day, the one article that they read makes them more of an expert than me and I haven't heard the end of it since the $260 crash. 

So what the actual fuck, when I initially told them about it (@$20/BTC) I cautiously recommended that they just read about it.  Now the crash validated their skepticism despite the fact that we are significantly higher than $20/BTC. 

Haters dude, I can't wait until I'm a famous pop singer and they'll be jealous.
That's exactly right all the people who refused to get on at $.70 always come and let me know how bitcoin is broken whenever there is a crash after a big rise. They read the articles and then think they are experts because someone else called it a bubble.

"Yeah I know it crashed to $50. after it rose from $5. to $260. in a couple of months lol I made $45. per btc in that bubble did you? oh that's right you still haven't bought. Well now it's heading back up to $100. you should buy some." 

The better I do on bitcoin the more these people are hoping bitcoin crashes and I lose because they don't want to admit they where wrong. They will probably buy bitcoin at $1000. and not tell anyone then panic sell for $400. in a drop then panic buy again at $1000.
 
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April 18, 2013, 10:02:27 AM
 #138

The better I do on bitcoin the more these people are hoping bitcoin crashes and I lose because they don't want to admit they where wrong. They will probably buy bitcoin at $1000. and not tell anyone then panic sell for $400. in a drop then panic buy again at $1000. 

This will probably stay like this for 2-4 more years.

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April 18, 2013, 11:41:45 PM
 #139

Quote
Whatever those people say, a typical Vladimir Club member has now 6 digit per day paper losses or gains on their bitcoin holdings recently. This is going to turn into daily 7 digit losses and gains before long. Whatever those statists say is fucking irrelevant in comparison. FFS daily ebb and flow on a such portfolio will be soon higher than lifetime earning expectation of those braindeeads who are incapable of independend thinking. All I can do now  is to point them to this http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WdrSP0V-KLg#t=167.5s

Weird huh?

Vladimir Club members better like volatility or invest in ulcer medicine ... Cheesy

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Bitcoin mining, does it worth it?

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April 19, 2013, 08:06:43 AM
 #140

If only 1% of the Argentinians put their savings in bitcoin or Zimbabwe is really making bitcoin reserves then the bitcoin price will not stop at 1.000$.
Anyway it seems that somebody started to invest greater amount in bitcoin.

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