The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that.

[no to the gold cult]

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

[ryepdx]

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?)...

I think you're referring to GLBSE...

Good post, though. I've been a bit worried about a bubble at current levels too, especially with that parabola Mt. Gox was tracing from the $5.58 level to the $8 level. Reminded me of SLV right before the 30% crash.

[no to the gold cult]

Reading this site regarding parabolic ascent in silver:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/hamilton051311.html

Very interesting. Perhaps btc will top out and crash then, I modify my opinion. Bitcoin will rocket away until after 2013 and then crash, and bottom out over a couple of grand relative to 2011 dollars. By then people might be using shredded 2013 dollars to stuff soft-toys or something.

[BitcoinsWallet]

$1000 a coin... is it's too much for a neraly future...

[ploum]

I think that we should try to concentrate on pessimistic scenarios instead. What could lead Bitcoin to a crash:

1) Not enough market. At some point, investors star to realize that Bitcoin is only a speculative tool and that there are very few websites using it for real. They sell, the bubble crashes. I think that this scenario is very unlikely as all we have to do to avoid that is to make more and more businesses accepting bitcoin.


2) A security flaw in the software. A small security concern might drive the prices down but a huge flaw might be the death of Bitcoin. I think that, the more the time passes, the less likely it is to happen. Indeed, with the price increase, there is more and more incentive to crack the system.


3) Another e-currency appears and offer everything bitcoin has to offer without the drawbacks. That's the real danger I see for bitcoin now. Bitcoin could be the Napster or the Betamax of E-money. The biggest flaw in Bitcoin right now is that it is not user friendly. Addresses are painful to use, the software is ugly (UI looks like a win95 UI), the need for backup of wallet.dat makes it dangerous to use, there's no way to send a message with you payment (which is something you want in most case), there's no way to send a payment to someone you know without asking for a bitcoin address first.

All of those problems can be solved "easily", with online banks and an e-banking protocol on top of Bitcoin. But it remains to be done and, as long as it is not done, someone else could take the lead.

[cypherdoc]

i've posted many times on the forum about this.  i agree with you.

[cindylove]

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

I have to say I agree with you. In fact I think BitCoins could be worth much more than you say. Right now it is still relatively unknown but with the benefits of anonymity and speed it will become the currency of choice for all if not most black market transactions which is worth billions. Just think how useful the currency will be to mexican catels trying to launder money. These people will definately use bitcoin for that.


I play online poker and if you do too I'm sure you're aware of Black Friday. Even gray market businesses will have to use it. I think the best promoter of BitCoins is govt & the current payment providers. The more draconian they become (stopping funding for wikileaks, Amex stopped doing card transactions with legal pot dispensaries in the us etc). Therefore I don't think we need to worry about a lack of market for BitCoin

[PeterSchiff]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

[mewantsbitcoins]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere 

[tiberiandusk]

I won't be happy till I can pay off my students loans with 1BTC. 

[no to the gold cult]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Peter Schiff? Really? I'm honored.

[no to the gold cult]

I saw this post on another forum and think it's worth mentioning here. Bitcoin must be subjected to all rigorous criticism and I'd like to see if the points raised can be countered...

Bitcoin and similar technologies may have a significant role to play in the future, and the technology is legitimately elegant and adeptly applies several modern strains of cryptographical research.  

The recent speculative runup in the main Bitcoin block chain, however, is insane and entirely unfounded.  I can't promise that people buying Bitcoins now will lose money, for no one can easily predict where a bubble will end, but the grandiose claims of most of the people in the official Bitcoin forums are absurd and border on the illegal fraud that is explicitly disclaimed by people like Rezin777.  Investors would be well advised not to risk their money here.  There are several significant reasons for this:

1. Most of the exchanges between Bitcoin and other currencies are illegal or, at the very least, unlicensed and illegitimate.  They likely run afoul of US securities laws and US banking laws.  This is not just a pub-style bull session about law; it is the result of a reasoned consideration informed by legal experts, though of course it does not constitute legal advice to you.  Speaking generally, though, individual users of these exchanges risk having their assets and accounts frozen, risk running afoul of money-laundering laws, and generally risk losing even more than they put into the system.

2. Related, given that the exchanges are entirely unregulated, they can themselves be manipulating the market.  Given that Bitcoin is touted as a distributed currency, it is ironic that there is absolutely no check on "Mt. Gox," the major Bitcoin exchange, through which $200,000/day is (unbelievably) passing.

3. The Bitcoin protocol itself is not robust against denial-of-service and other attacks.  Many on the official Bitcoin forums have noticed this, and some have spelled out the attack vector in detail, but in short, a persistent denial-of-service attack that shuts down Bitcoin entirely can be mounted trivially for about $700,000 and can very likely be mounted with more sophistication at a substantially lower cost.  Indeed, the Google employee who (in a personal capacity) wrote a Java version of part of the Bitcoin client has recognized publicly that any sophisticated analyst could shut down Bitcoin at will, and he explicitly opposed calls for tests of the system's security by the general public.  The system has created the impression of security, but it is not secure.  What ARE secure and robust are the ideas behind the protocol; it is likely that something like Bitcoin will survive, in some form, in the future.  But the main block chain, in which everyone's presumed "wealth" inheres, is of questionable soundness.  (To say that more simply:  Bitcoin as an idea might survive, but it is far less likely that your "bitcoins" will.)

4. Given that technological attacks are possible, a corollary is that economic attacks in the style of securities fraud are possible as well.  If you can disrupt the network at will, you can easily disrupt the network in a strategic way in order to profit from the disruption's effect on the market.  Much unsophisticated analysis of Bitcoin rests on the premise that attacks aren't worthwhile to mount because it would be more profitable, with massive computing resources, to "mine" for Bitcoins, but that entirely neglects (1) the economic motivations that come from market manipulation and (2) ideological, political, regulatory, and commercial competition to the main Bitcoin block chain, which makes attacks relatively more attractive for many parties.

5.  To the extent the official Bitcoin forums have informed investors' views of Bitcoin, they have likely misled the public.  This is interesting from a legal perspective because it amounts to fraud without the individualized intent of fraud (can a mob "defraud" someone when no individual person in the mob is consciously telling a lie from which he or she expects to profit?), but several features of the official forum stand out immediately to informed readers.  These are largely tangents, but they may help paint a more accurate picture of the current users of Bitcoin than the official forums would:

 a. While I said at the outset that Bitcoin is legitimately interesting from a technological standpoint, it is not as creative or novel as most of the adopters seem to think.  Judging from the official forums, the typical adopter is someone with a modicum, but no more, of technical and theoretical experience.  (Perhaps of note:  those who are leading the ongoing "development" of Bitcoin are little different; they are not sophisticated or creative technological thinkers, and they struggle even with the details of the present protocol.  What this means for an investor is that Bitcoin is not practically resilient even to those attacks to which it might respond in theory, such as a compromise of the hash function it mainly uses or the development of a new "mining" technology that cheapens various attack vectors.)  To paint the picture very broadly:  these people know how to run Linux, compile programs on it, and maybe write a few lines of code; they can also evaluate at a very general level the claims of a cryptosystem.  But all except about five people on the official forums have no specific mathematical or systems training, and so the general discussion and enthusiasm creates the impression in a novice that Bitcoin is far sounder than it is.

 b. More obviously, the official forum is filled with disturbing and juvenile, extreme anarchism.  Comments like "I reject all systems of human morality and law" are common.  Uses of Bitcoin to encourage trading in illegal goods and services are routine; even "assassination markets" are encouraged.  Bitcoin as a virtual currency probably does not threaten governments the way that some novices initially imagine upon hearing about the technology, but when the only people buying Bitcoins are (1) engaging in illegal activities, (2) anarchist teenagers who want to promote the technology for ideological reasons, and (3) speculators, sound investors like those in the Fatwallet crowd would be well advised to stay away.  To a mainstream community of investors, however, the deranged rants that are commonplace among early Bitcoin adopters are perhaps reason alone to hesitate to adopt the technology.

6. Probably less significantly, but still interestingly, the Bitcoin block chain has now been demonstrated by at least two good analysts to be able to store arbitrary data "steganographically."  This means that the Bitcoin block chain can contain arbitrary contraband, so that merely by running the Bitcoin client, you may (at least theoretically) be propagating child pornography, Wikileaks, and other material in the style of Freenet and other distributed storage systems.  This is more theoretical than practical at the moment, but it is disconcerting.  How popular would VISA cards be if (say) 4% of them contained contraband information encoded in the holograms on the front of the cards?

NOTHING IN THIS MESSAGE CONTAINS INDIVIDUALIZED LEGAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.  My motives for writing this are a distaste for fraud, even when that fraud is not consciously propagated.  As a researcher, I also have privately made proposals that address some of the technical drawbacks of Bitcoin, but I have no vested interest in seeing Bitcoin as a technology either succeed or fail.

Taken from here: http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1090435/?start=192

I agree with some of what he says, I may even be guilty of some of it myself (this thread in evidence). If ultimately he is right, I'd rather the crash came sooner so that true development can proceed sooner. The upshot will still be worth it. The question is... can the bitcoin implementation of this idea withstand the pressure of the kind of values it must inevitably be expected to bear?

[mewantsbitcoins]

This guy raises few good points, however his posts are biased, there are some contradictions and in general it's written using scare tactics. Investors are cautious people so I guess he was thinking about his audience. I tend to ignore advice from people who have vested interests one way or another

edit: this is the average member's understanding in that forum, so the original poster probably did a very good job

the only thing I know about "hash" is that it it something people smoke in Amsterdam ... and P2P to my knowledge is something that people use to steal intellectual property

so you want me to use hash's and P2P to participate in some kind beanie baby cyber money scheme?

no thanks --- maybe you guys who like this should just create a parallel cyber universe off the internet grid and do just everything over there

[WarrenBuffett]

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

Sounds like sour gapes to me.

Yes Peter, you're late the the party once again (story of your life right?).

I believe Bill Gross has been around here for awhile also.

[mcdett]

I saw this post on another forum and think it's worth mentioning here. Bitcoin must be subjected to all rigorous criticism and I'd like to see if the points raised can be countered...

Indeed, the Google employee who (in a personal capacity) wrote a Java version of part of the Bitcoin client has recognized publicly that any sophisticated analyst could shut down Bitcoin at will, and he explicitly opposed calls for tests of the system's security by the general public.

Taken from here: http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1090435/?start=192

Someone have a reference for this claim?

With 250k of usd dollars trading hands daily (if you choose to believe the info out of mtgox), there is much incentive to game the system, and I actually know there are efforts underfoot compromise the blockchain.

I for one would strongly welcome attacks.  Let's get this over with as soon as possible if the protocol implementation and math behind it are not long lasting.

Maybe a bounty in real USD needs to be posted to do exactly that.

[PeterSchiff]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere 

Ignoring your Asperger like comment on my typo ; Good job getting in early mate. So how did you hear about BitCoin (all of you early adopters)?

[paulie_w]

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

[no to the gold cult]

"The Geeks will inherit the earth" have just turned into, "Geeks are the new aristocracy", and this is why:

Who owns BitCoins.. There must be some individuals hoarding a large amount, and I wish I was one them. If BitCoins were universally adopted, a BitCoin may well be worth 10,000$, in fact it would probably be worth a whole lot more. On top of that we would have deflation, due to no more BitCoins being generated, ever, and so the value would increase further. If there are 1 Billion people who may adopt this system, and 21 Million BitCoins, you'd be very fortunate (and rich) to own just a single BitCoin. Owning a single BitCoin may be the equivalent of being a multi millionaire today. Having a whopping 1000 BitCoins would rival Gates in his glory days.

The BitCoin system, is perfect, and perfectly flawed. I think we've just discovered how to turn Freetards into Bankers, our new financial overlords.

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

I think I will hold out for the next BitCoin, we can probably just reuse the software, it's open source right , be an early adapter, promoter and make my exit.

Good luck to all you scammers, you don't deserve the money.

You can be whatever "adapter" you want, but I am early adopter and ain't going anywhere  

Ignoring your Asperger like comment on my typo ; Good job getting in early mate. So how did you hear about BitCoin (all of you early adopters)?

While returning from work drunk again late one monday night I was approached by this trustworthy looking pair and taken down a dark alley to be shown something cool.

[VPoro]

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. If the hoarders (aka. early adopters) have 1k+ BTC (perhaps even 10k+ BTC?), it's basically a game of chicken: the one that sells first gets a profit in USD, and after he/she has dumped all of the BTC, the price will plummet, and the other hoarders BTC will be worthless (vs. USD, of course, if you like alpaca socks, they won't be . All of the people with a lot of BTC know this, and the counterbalance against selling right now is the possible increase in BTC/USD exchange rate - "why would you sell now, when it could be 12 USD/BTC soon?".

As long as there's no 'real' value to BTC (aka no major merchants accept it, and only a very few selected small businesses do), this is what it boils down to - which one of the hoarders dumps their BTC first

The community, of course, can counter this by creating a real value for BTC: by getting businesses to adopt BTC. However, it may be hard, since as the investment goes up, people do background research, and sooner or later they will bump into the fact that most of the BTC is in the wallets of the early adopters (which is why the poster you quoted referred bitcoin to a pyramid scheme), which makes the economy unstable.

Just my .02 BTC...

[PeterSchiff]

I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

Why? Look, if you mined early, it may not be a substantial investment, but that has nothing to do with anything. Let's take an example, let's say I mined early and got an easy 10,000 BitCoins. When I mined it, it wasn't worth much, and cost me "nothing". So far so good. Today, however, those 10,000 BitCoins are worth say, in excess of 60,000$. That's 60,000$, out of "nothing", if you SELL, TODAY. So far so good, but have you ever played the stock market, or FX, or invested in commodities? Well, even these established markets peak and crash.

So how do you feel when there's a security flaw discovered, or everyone moves on to the next great thing, or demand just falls because you can only buy crap, or some kind of negative government interaction takes place and your BitCoins starts tanking in value. Are you okay with losing 60,000$, just because the money was "free".

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?