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Author Topic: The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that.  (Read 38284 times)
bernd
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May 16, 2011, 05:18:24 PM
 #21

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I have done my research, and conclusion is, it's gonna crash as soon as one of the Hoarders get's scared, and dumps his BitCoins on the exchange. I love the idea, but it reminds me to much of a time when many of my friends got into these "pyramid schemes" selling various crap. And let me just say, pyramid schemes work, when we all buy into them...

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.


Why? Look, if you mined early, it may not be a substantial investment, but that has nothing to do with anything. Let's take an example, let's say I mined early and got an easy 10,000 BitCoins. When I mined it, it wasn't worth much, and cost me "nothing". So far so good. Today, however, those 10,000 BitCoins are worth say, in excess of 60,000$. That's 60,000$, out of "nothing", if you SELL, TODAY. So far so good, but have you ever played the stock market, or FX, or invested in commodities? Well, even these established markets peak and crash.

So how do you feel when there's a security flaw discovered, or everyone moves on to the next great thing, or demand just falls because you can only buy crap, or some kind of negative government interaction takes place and your BitCoins starts tanking in value. Are you okay with losing 60,000$, just because the money was "free".

It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

Well, IF you believe that Bitcoin is the Future and it will replace currencies like Dollar or Euro, you will never sell. If you don't there is bound to be a number, i agree. We will see if the hoarders believe in Bitcoin as a currency or as a method to get rich quickly.
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May 16, 2011, 05:33:04 PM
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It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

The problem is that most of these people don't look at it this way.  They look at it from the perspective of being part of something revolutionary, and game changing.

I don't want 60k usd out of this, I want to see the foundations of freedom in this world change <-- that is the greater mind set of the current person with large btc holding.

send btc --> 1F1avjWuBy1Ah8vuEkyVDPJ93ev3unfC3J
dacoinminster
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May 16, 2011, 07:09:41 PM
 #23

I 100% agree with the logic in post #1. In fact, I recently said something similar myself (see my signature).

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May 16, 2011, 07:25:52 PM
 #24

the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. 


MtGox doesn't display bids more than ~33% from the last trade. Bids go all the way down. There is also the possibility of large hidden orders. And there are the other markets (small) and individuals (unknown, but large imo)

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BitcoinStars.com
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May 16, 2011, 07:31:40 PM
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the question is, why would a hoarder get 'scared'? at this point the hoarders are mostly people who mined EARLY -- ie: their investment isn't substantial in most cases.

I wouldn't say 'scared' is the right word - but what the poster you quoted meant was that there's ~3000 BTC worth of BIDs on MtGox at the moment, after which the price of a single bitcoin is... well, zero, unless someone makes more BIDs. 


MtGox doesn't display bids more than ~33% from the last trade. Bids go all the way down. There is also the possibility of large hidden orders. And there are the other markets (small) and individuals (unknown, but large imo)

A key point some opinion makers ignore
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May 16, 2011, 09:03:27 PM
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It's like inheriting some penny stocks from you uncle, next thing you know they shoot up in value, not because of your brilliance as an investor obviously, but because of dumb luck, so you figure, well since they are going up, they must be going up some more, after all there are only so many of them, and everybody wants them because, well everybody else wants them.

You gotta get off the roller-coaster sooner or later, so when are you gonna get off. What's you number?

The problem is that most of these people don't look at it this way.  They look at it from the perspective of being part of something revolutionary, and game changing.

I don't want 60k usd out of this, I want to see the foundations of freedom in this world change <-- that is the greater mind set of the current person with large btc holding.


I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips
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May 16, 2011, 09:13:49 PM
 #27

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.
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May 16, 2011, 09:16:11 PM
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I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.
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May 16, 2011, 09:25:29 PM
 #29

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.

Good point, sir. Have a tip.
Also, are there any practical models that actually promote balanced sharing of wealth?
Vandroiy
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May 16, 2011, 09:38:30 PM
 #30

@"zomg early adopters get too much":

Boo-hoo, person X does not deserve his Bitcoins. Bitcoin initial distribution is by far the best approach I've seen so far. Yes, the makers made the rules so that they can get a neat share in the first month. SO WHAT? I was late too. But do I mind? This is much better than inflation. I rather give absurd amounts of money to someone who was an early supporter of a useful technology than to states who just burn it. Especially if I have to give it once, and the states want to keep the money burning all my life.

But that's the thing. States are there, wasting billions and billions of Euros and Dollars with everybody watching. If somebody pointlessly earns 100 million USD in a Bitcoin rise, who cares? Even ten billion; the EU destroys much, much more every year! It's not even important. And the time frame for the really absurd minting is pretty much over with BTC already at sizable price.

So, IMO, if a hundred people get an unjustified earning of USD 100 million each, I think this is an acceptable loss. The target economy size makes such an event negligible.



@Thread:

I don't believe all you $1000 people. If as many believe that as claim to believe it, price should be higher already. It's mostly people who shout, but aren't sure enough to actually invest. Which should be very profitable if $1000 is actually likely.

This is still far from done. You'll see when it actually is done. Things won't look like a little hacker circle playing with money anymore if that happens. If. Maybe we'll see three-digit prices then. But the real thing, that is many people using BTC in their everyday lives, has yet to happen.
MoonShadow
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May 16, 2011, 09:43:55 PM
 #31

@"zomg early adopters get too much":

Boo-hoo, person X does not deserve his Bitcoins. Bitcoin initial distribution is by far the best approach I've seen so far. Yes, the makers made the rules so that they can get a neat share in the first month. SO WHAT? I was late too. But do I mind? This is much better than inflation. I rather give absurd amounts of money to someone who was an early supporter of a useful technology than to states who just burn it. Especially if I have to give it once, and the states want to keep the money burning all my life.

Added to that, once those early adopters finally decide to take those profits, then those bitcoins are loose in the system, and no amount of gaming or lobbying is going to give those early adopters their advantages back.  It's a one time advantage, whereas fiat currencies are constantly being screwed with to the benefit of some insider or another.  Hell, even the gold and silver markets are manipulated to some degree.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
rezin777
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May 16, 2011, 09:46:58 PM
 #32

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

It like this. Some smart fellow invented the wheel. It allowed some dude to do more work with less energy. He had a huge advantage over everyone else who was still dragging carcasses, sticks, and whatnot around using barrows (wheelbarrow without a wheel). A few of the people around him see the benefit of the wheel. They start using it. They start telling their friends. The people on the other side of the world are the last to hear about this fantastic new invention: the wheel.

Now, do the early adopters of the wheel have an advantage over the people on the other side of the planet who haven't heard about it yet? Yes.

Did that make the wheel a poor tool? No! (In fact, we still use it today)

Is it unfair that the people who started using the wheel first had an advantage over the people on the other side of the planet? Maybe, but that's life.

Bitcoin isn't going to stop being useful because the people who saw it's usefulness first might profit from being first. Those who choose to boycott Bitcoin for these reasons will simply have to continue life without having the advantages of this particular useful tool. Time will tell if this becomes a disadvantage for them or not.
dacoinminster
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May 16, 2011, 09:48:15 PM
 #33

But the real thing, that is many people using BTC in their everyday lives, has yet to happen.

This is a common misconception - that bitcoin must achieve widespread usage in order to be obscenely valuable.

As an average consumer, bitcoin doesn't offer me much that I don't already have. If bitcoin must be used for groceries to be successful, I'm selling all of mine today.

As a stock trader, the potential to trade ANY type of contract on ANY security at 100x cheaper price per trade completely anonymously changes everything. I probably won't actually do it myself (at least not at first - I'm too scared of the law man), but other people will do it in hordes.

People in Nigerian internet cafes will be able to bet a few pennies on any stock for any country in the world. Huge hedge funds will be able to place gigantic bets without anyone knowing where the bet came from.

It will be epic, and they will buy a couple of those bitcoins from me.

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May 16, 2011, 09:50:03 PM
 #34

Big deal, so 20 people get stinky wealthy for being 'early adopters', so what. There will be much more people who will regret for the rest of their days and get ridiculed by grandchildren about buying a pizza for a 10kBTC or selling all their bitcoins for .70$

On this basis you can refuse ever buying shares of Google because Larry and Serge got zillions of them for "free".

In any case most of those initial 'easy' money are going to be sold for peanuts i.e. less than 1000$/BTC.


I'd bet that the guy who bought the pizza for 10kBTC is one of the 20 (or 20000?) who will be stinking rich. No one is going to be ridiculing him, let alone his lucky grandkids. Buying that pizza might have motivated him to ratchet up his collecting. And it might have helped kick start the use of Bitcoin as money.

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MoonShadow
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May 16, 2011, 09:52:53 PM
 #35

Big deal, so 20 people get stinky wealthy for being 'early adopters', so what. There will be much more people who will regret for the rest of their days and get ridiculed by grandchildren about buying a pizza for a 10kBTC or selling all their bitcoins for .70$

On this basis you can refuse ever buying shares of Google because Larry and Serge got zillions of them for "free".

In any case most of those initial 'easy' money are going to be sold for peanuts i.e. less than 1000$/BTC.


I'd bet that the guy who bought the pizza for 10kBTC is one of the 20 (or 20000?) who will be stinking rich. No one is going to be ridiculing him, let alone his lucky grandkids. Buying that pizza might have motivated him to ratchet up his collecting. And it might have helped kick start the use of Bitcoin as money.


Ironicly, I'd bet that he doesn't even have 10kBTC anymore.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
mewantsbitcoins
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May 16, 2011, 09:57:36 PM
 #36

Look I have nothing against the guy who bought the pizza and you are almost certainly correct in your response. But I can imagine that some grandchild complains like 'come on granny, you've spent on The pizza more than my trust fund worth, double it up'  Grin




'come on granny, you've spent on The pizza more than Zimbabwe is worth'

corrected
PeterSchiff
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May 16, 2011, 10:24:29 PM
 #37

I agree, I too want a monetary revolution. But this just stinks of greed, and the model is flawed due to the initial unbalanced sharing of wealth. As a principle, I will not buy any BitTulips

This is my concern too. It is often explained here as high profit associated with high initial risk taken by early adopters, but somehow I don't buy it.

you were born into a unbalanced sharing of wealth. get over it.

Good point, sir. Have a tip.
Also, are there any practical models that actually promote balanced sharing of wealth?

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK?HuhHuh WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

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May 16, 2011, 10:51:39 PM
 #38


So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK?HuhHuh WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.



Are you aware of the Bitcoin faucet?

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
gressen
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May 16, 2011, 11:03:53 PM
 #39

What stops a large organization or government from simply starting an alternative "BitCoin" and market the shit out of it, making BitCoin a thing of the past. And why don't they, because BitCoins are still relatively harmless (think tax evation, state tax, terrorism (just for marketing purposes), etc). I think once there is a crack, BitCoins will never recover.

So because we've been born into an unbalanced sharing of wealth, this somehow makes it OK?HuhHuh WTF!!  If it ain't about greed, then share your BitCoin wealth amongst ordinary people and get them involved in the market place. This should be an enabling technology, not an investment opportunity nor a pyramid scheme.

What stops a large entity from competing with Bitcoin? Nothing. But remember that Bitcoin is not governed by anyone. That creates a level of trust unreachable by any centralized organization.

I'm not saying that unbalanced distribution of wealth is ok. It has simply been pointed out that Bitcoin's wealth distribution is nothing new. I kindly ask again - is there a better practical alternative of introducing new currency without this injustice inherently build into it?
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May 16, 2011, 11:11:27 PM
 #40


I don't believe all you $1000 people. If as many believe that as claim to believe it, price should be higher already.


I think it will continue to rise quite a bit - one can't ignore the ratio of dollars to bitcoins in considering the possibility of bitcoin becoming a widely-used currency, even if it doesn't replace fiat moneys entirely. But probably not to $10,000 per coin, and here's why - because in a free market for money, there will be lots and lots of different moneys. Bitcoin will have to compete with others of its kind, with hard currencies, with labor notes, and other things. I suspect that it will condense around the techier sorts of markets, with some significant overlap into other areas, but not enough to make 21,000,000 bitcoins represent all 40 quadrillion US dollars or however many there are when the dollar finally bites it. I think that gold and silver will be the most widely used money, as they have been for the last 5,000 years of human history, and bitcoin will merely be measured in grams of gold instead of dollars. Its usefulness as a medium of exchange over long distances, however, cannot be duplicated with physical transfers of metal, or even with "warehouse receipts" for the same, which is why I do not expect it to lose in a truly competitive market for currency. (Presuming it becomes easier to buy and sell with time - the whole buying e-currency A which is the only thing that is accepted for e-currency B which is the only damn thing Mt. Gox will accept frankly sucks).

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