[SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)

[cloon]

ONLY POSTS WITH PICTURES, no discussions (without picture), no trolling
Everybody can share his own analysis here in form of a picture and a few additional explanations and thoughts for his picture



no real trendline up to 5.45
under there the trendlines are quite strong, if someone sells ther should not be a hard selloff

pls share your own analysis too!
pls follow the roulez
pls dont troll

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[cloon]

everyone expecting a correction close until ~5.70.
market needs to calm down and wait until the bulls crawled up and they can produce enough power to remain uptrend
i dont see the rocket crashing, just refueling
whats your analysis?

[cloon]

here's a new one:

[TraderTimm]

Nice, I am looking at a dollar-wide channel that roughly corresponds to your upward sloping green-line channel. Support around 8.20's with the upper 9.20's that could become support if we break through and close above it - which has only happened once so far.

Hard to chart with a lot of volatility, but overall we're grinding upward which is really what I'd like to see, even if we do have some sudden retracements along the way.

[Spekulatius]

In order to break the current triangle pirate (or whoever attempts it) has to break below 7.80$ and keep it there for some days. Unless the orderbook changes, his usual amount of funds is not sufficient to drive the price below 7.5$ (from where it is a shallow path to 6.00 $ and beyond), which would be good to squash buyers confidence. From the 17th of July onwards, he used around 70k BTC to drive the price up or down in order to stop further rally efforts. In the process he has lost at least 8000 BTC. So he now may have to stack up. If he doesnt, it will be hard for him to accomplish any breakthrough. We may see another withdrawal from his seeming address:
https://blockchain.info/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM. Current final balance: 447,835.01317523 BTC.

Also read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94675.0

By writing this, I am aware of the fact that any amount could just be shifted around to other addresses to make it look like a major dump is impeding. I am certain, nevertheless that this dump has to exceed all prior ones in magnitude in order to be successfull in his regard.

[adamstgBit]

In order to break the current triangle pirate (or whoever attempts it) has to break below 7.80$ and keep it there for some days. Unless the orderbook changes, his usual amount of funds is not sufficient to drive the price below 7.5$ (from where it is a shallow path to 6.00 $ and beyond), which would be good to squash buyers confidence. From the 17th of July onwards, he used around 70k BTC to drive the price up or down in order to stop further rally efforts. In the process he has lost at least 8000 BTC. So he now may have to stack up. If he doesnt, it will be hard for him to accomplish any breakthrough. We may see another withdrawal from his seeming address:
https://blockchain.info/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM. Current final balance: 447,835.01317523 BTC.

Also read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94675.0

By writing this, I am aware of the fact that any amount could just be shifted around to other addresses to make it look like a major dump is impeding. I am certain, nevertheless that this dump has to exceed all prior ones in magnitude in order to be successfull in his regard.

I think he will get his way, the price will go down, but he will have to sell a lot of bitcoin in the process.

Now that he has the price lower hes going to want to "stabilize" it their for a while in order for him to be able to buy back all these coins he sold at a lower price.

This is where he gets in trouble, he's going to place a huge ask wall at 7, he doesn't want to sell at 7 he sold at 9.50-8.50... but he will place the wall their to pressure people to place asks at the 7$ level.

Problem! someone eats his 7$ wall and price is Climbing, in a panic pirate starts to take dumps ( in more ways then 1 ) he dumps over and over desperately trying to "stabilize" the price at 7, and it works! 7$ and holding

but now hes 150,000coins short, 50,000 sold at 9, 100,000 sold at 7, now he needs to buy back 150,000coins bellow 8$, their simply wont be enough sellers

someone out of the blue buys 100,000coins pushing the price above 10$

game over!

 

[Spekulatius]

I cant shake the feeling that he was behind the failed January/February rally as well. It was even easier with bitcoinica in place back then. So basically, he doenst have to keep throwing BTC at the market once he tipped the momentum. The time is now. If he can break that triangle, he's winning, if he cant, he will loose in the medium term. In case of second scenario he may let it ride beyond 10$ for some time in the hope the rally will exhaust itself, but at some point he'll probably throw everything he's got in the pot to bring prices down and if unsuccessfull, make a run for it (with all the left over money).

[adamstgBit]

I cant shake the feeling that he was behind the failed January/February rally as well. It was even easier with bitcoinica in place back then. So basically, he doenst have to keep throwing BTC at the market once he tipped the momentum. The time is now. If he can break that triangle, he's winning, if he cant, he will loose in the medium term. In case of second scenario he may let it ride beyond 10$ for some time in the hope the rally will exhaust itself, but at some point he'll probably throw everything he's got in the pot to bring prices down and if unsuccessfull, make a run for it (with all the left over money).

yes he was in control of that hole time.
but more people got to buy cheap, i dont have a problem with that  
in many ways its good for bitcoin to have Manipulators, the more the better

and he can't run with the cash, he Might be able to get away with the left over bitcoins tho? i think it would just be a bad month in the market for him, i dont see him getting cleaned out anytime soon

[cloon]

Nice, I am looking at a dollar-wide channel that roughly corresponds to your upward sloping green-line channel. Support around 8.20's with the upper 9.20's that could become support if we break through and close above it - which has only happened once so far.

Hard to chart with a lot of volatility, but overall we're grinding upward which is really what I'd like to see, even if we do have some sudden retracements along the way.

yes panic and all that wild speculation about pirate40 does charting make harder but it's a quiet pretty triangle were building.
but there's the possibility that some big one sells out of triangle, but we're getting back into it like it happend 2 times before...
i also see the next green line under the triangle as support.

I cant shake the feeling that he was behind the failed January/February rally as well. It was even easier with bitcoinica in place back then. So basically, he doenst have to keep throwing BTC at the market once he tipped the momentum. The time is now. If he can break that triangle, he's winning, if he cant, he will loose in the medium term. In case of second scenario he may let it ride beyond 10$ for some time in the hope the rally will exhaust itself, but at some point he'll probably throw everything he's got in the pot to bring prices down and if unsuccessfull, make a run for it (with all the left over money).

yes he was in control of that hole time.
but more people got to buy cheap, i dont have a problem with that   
in many ways its good for bitcoin to have Manipulators, the more the better

and he can't run with the cash, he Might be able to get away with the left over bitcoins tho? i think it would just be a bad month in the market for him, i dont see him getting cleaned out anytime soon

wouldn't it be more profitable for him to bring prices up over 10-12$, waiting for more support and sell into it, then initiate enormous panic selling and then buying back way under 7-8$?
with his current tactic he didn't make much profit... ;-)

here a closer look to the triangle:

[adamstgBit]

wouldn't it be more profitable for him to bring prices up over 10-12$, waiting for more support and sell into it, then initiate enormous panic selling and then buying back way under 7-8$?
with his current tactic he didn't make much profit... ;-)

ya he called the "top" a bit low, this will make it hard for him to bring it down, and hard for him to buy back lower

also he's probably looking at all our post about him and he's LOLing hard  

[Spekulatius]

Triangle broken upwards



It seems the triangle has now, in its final stage, been broken upwards. Under normal conditions, one could expect 10$/BTC to be tested before retracing to the 9.00-9.50$ range, forming the "handle" to prior tops at 9.70$ and 9.50$. It would be logical to expect another rally towards 12-14 $, before consolidation or collapse

BUT

With an aggressive and to a large extent unpredictable player like pirate, alot more variance adds to the mix. Judging from his earlier behaviour (or what is thought to be his), a quick push over the edge of a new top, like 10$ would be in our case, can be expected in order to prematurely exhaust the buying momentum, followed by a big dump in order to induce panic selling. Now that this tactic has been applied just recently it would not prove very effective as the market has not forgotten yet. In order to shift momentum in the medium range more funds (at least 2 or 3 times as much ~ 140k to 210k BTC) would be needed.

Option number TWO would be to wait for a chart technically and in regards to the speculators emotion cycle more opportune point in time, like for a more elevated and "believable" top of the culminating rally, like 12 or 14$, before this tactic is applied again. To bolster his warchest pirate may buy back BTC on the way up to sell at new tops, confluencing with his strategy to crush momentum with a panic sell.

Option number THREE would be to try to break this triangle still in the downward direction, making the recent outbreak look like a false signal. Hence, with current density of ASK orders (113k BTC needed to shift price below 7.50 $) this option seems rather funds intensive.

[cloon]

triangle finally broken upwards!
there could be a retest at 8.8$ - 8.9$ to build buying power until continue uptrend...

EDIT: indicators looking great too

[cloon]

We are building a triangle again
witch direction will the breakout be?

[sgbett]

[Spekulatius]

This is the enemy gentlemen. This red line has to be broken in order to rally again. The green line is just a chart channel for orientation purposes. I expect it to be broken sonner or later.

[goxed]

https://i.imgur.com/r7ery.png

[augustocroppo]

 

Law Of Supply And Demand

The law of supply and demand defines the effect that the availability of a particular product and the desire (or demand) for that product has on price. Generally, if there is a low supply and a high demand, the price will be high. (...)

At the same time you need to understand the interaction; even if you have a high supply, if the demand is also high, the price could also be high.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-demand.asp#ixzz242ftKRJN

[image removed]

[Spekulatius]

https://i.imgur.com/r7ery.png

This upspike is gonna collaps any minute. To say it with Admiral Ackbar's words:

[humanitee]

Totally agree, trap.

[bitarrow]

hope so