[SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)

[keewee]

An attempt to cancel out all the pirate noise & just assume that there has been a general increase of interest in bitcoin since June & that it will continue along those lines

pic

Why would general interest growth be a linear process?

No reason that it has to be, but any move over the blue line would show increasing interest & a move bellow the red line a fall off in interest or profit taking, with a price around the yellow line showing a similar linear growth that's being going on for nearly 4 months now if the pirate noise is ignored.

This is probably a very naive way of looking at the trend but maybe the sort of reasoning some others may follow instinctively especially if they're not in to serious TA, I'm interested in how we continue to travel within that approx 1 btc rising band & if it is really a general trend or will it break down (or up) soon, just my personal analysis (or one of them) of what may be going on atm. I'll update it in about a months time if we're still within the band.

Edit to add: For contrast here's an example of bitcoin exponential growth when ignoring the bubbles, particularly in mid 2011. (taken from http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/koch20120927)

pic

Still looks way too arbitrary to me.
If there is no reason for the growth to be linear then why is it?
I don't think that this growth of the past few months is a sign of growth in interest as i can't imagine why this would be a straight line over such an extended period.
I would say that you're not naive enough in your interpretation. IMO you should let go of the idea that the movement in price is created by 'normal' bitcoin economy interactions.

A few weeks ago i found something about bitcoin that has since puzzled me.
Look at this graph (i think it is a much better example of bitcoin exponential growth):



At first i simply connected the bottoms of the triangles with straight lines, but then saw that it looks like an exponential curve so i created an exponential graph in another tool and after some experimentation got an exponent that fits the bitcoin bottom and combined it with the bitcoin price chart.

So now i have this idea of a synthetic bottom to bitcoin with waves of 'something' (could be interpreted as the actual bitcoin market interactions) riding on top of it.
I mean, with all the dynamics in bitcoinland, how the hell would the community maintain such a precise curve for the bottom of price?
It seems to me there is something built into bitcoin that makes the network itself have this effect.

Anyone has a better explanation?

I wonder where the bottom of this current sell off will land on your graph? It's starting to look like it might just touch it, but will it cross it and continue falling?

[1714831746]

1714831746

[mobodick]

I wonder where the bottom of this current sell off will land on your graph? It's starting to look like it might just touch it, but will it cross it and continue falling?

Me too
I think the graph indicates around 8ish at the moment, but the question is if this is the real slide down to the line. Historically the 'triangles' slide down slower than up. I would expect the slide down to last at least another month but now i have no idea.

[ElectricMucus]

You know ... 

There is a sister curve to the parabola, the ellipse and if you zoom in they can be difficult to distinguish..

[mobodick]

You know ... 

There is a sister curve to the parabola, the ellipse and if you zoom in they can be difficult to distinguish..

Sure, but that was not a parabola...

Parabolas are quadratic, my function is not.
So my graph is not related to ellipses.

[ElectricMucus]

You know ... 

There is a sister curve to the parabola, the ellipse and if you zoom in they can be difficult to distinguish..

Sure, but that was not a parabola...

Parabolas are quadratic, my function is not.
So my graph is not related to ellipses.

But according to my duck test.... nevermind

[shmadz]

this actually turned into a quite interesting thread.

one thing I have not seen (I may have missed it) is any mention of - or mechanism to explain - the effects of the block reward halving.

does this mean that the impending drop in new supply will have no effect? or can we begin to discuss what this change might do to all these charts in the long term?

once again, very interesting read, thanks to all participants.

*sorry, no pics for you 

[myself]

this actually turned into a quite interesting thread.

one thing I have not seen (I may have missed it) is any mention of - or mechanism to explain - the effects of the block reward halving.

does this mean that the impending drop in new supply will have no effect? or can we begin to discuss what this change might do to all these charts in the long term?

once again, very interesting read, thanks to all participants.

*sorry, no pics for you 

the only positive aka price increase on the short term (1-2 years) will be a total stop of bitcoin production since that is not going to happen the effect will be negative

[augustocroppo]

The Depression

I noticed that in the last weeks, Bitcoin Network has processed a low quantity of transactions. In comparison with previous speculations I made, the actual transactions are below the average threshold of the last months. After the rise of USD price, the Bitcoin Network became very busy. I registered high peaks of transactions and transference of large amounts.

Today the scenario is different:

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

Nov 22, 2012 14:30:10 (UTC)

Code:

Produced Bitcoins		10453600
Transactions last 24h		34833
Transactions avg. per hour	1451.38
Bitcoins sent last 24h		1021631.67
Bitcoins sent avg. per hour	42567.99
	
Bitcoin reserve			10546400

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[naima53]

The Depression

I noticed that in the last weeks, Bitcoin Network has processed a low quantity of transactions. In comparison with previous speculations I made, the actual transactions are below the average threshold of the last months. After the rise of USD price, the Bitcoin Network became very busy. I registered high peaks of transactions and transference of large amounts.

Today the scenario is different:

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

Nov 22, 2012 14:30:10 (UTC)

Code:

Produced Bitcoins		10453600
Transactions last 24h		34833
Transactions avg. per hour	1451.38
Bitcoins sent last 24h		1021631.67
Bitcoins sent avg. per hour	42567.99
	
Bitcoin reserve			10546400

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Oh, holy shit, we fall to zero! Sell now and withdraw fiat immediately!

[Yuhfhrh]

Its thanksgiving in the U.S., I would expect nothing different?

[myself]

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/92565790/btc_myself_open_chartbook.cht click save as and open in SC

[Crypt_Current]

personal analysis:

short term down.

I use bitcoincharts.com, 8/18 EMA with macd, rsi, bollinger width and chaikin volatility and also parabolic SAR.  On the 12 hour, the SAR seems to indicate when macd will cross, which in turn indicates when the EMAs cross.  Been working pretty well for me for awhile.

8/18 just has personal significance, in case anyone is wondering.

[edit] - You can draw your own picture by going to bitcoincharts and inputting the above parameters

[myself]

http://stocktwits.com/message/10789172 this is about to turn bearish unless there is some serious buy

[Spekulatius]

http://stocktwits.com/message/10789172 this is about to turn bearish unless there is some serious buy

You mean because of low volume with rising prices?
I agree. Maybe beyond 13$, if not: Sell when supporting trend lines are broken.

[Spekulatius]

I just madde two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl


https://ferroh.com/chart

The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12$ (weaker support) to 11$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.

The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11$ in our case).

Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77$ to 13$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)

[robocoin]

I just madde two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:

[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/35mlk6o.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl

[IMG]http://i46.tinypic.com/o0dt2b.png
https://ferroh.com/chart

The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12$ (weaker support) to 11$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.

The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11$ in our case).

Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77$ to 13$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)

Spekulatius! Do have some tips for good books on basic financial probabilistics? (German is also fine :-) What algorithms/ formulas worked best for you?

[cloon]

looks like double top is out of discussion^^

[robocoin]

looks like double top is out of discussion^^

  betraying my ignorance

[SkRRJyTC]

looks like double top is out of discussion^^

?? The double top possibility he posted would be when the price hits $13... we arent there yet.

[Spekulatius]

looks like double top is out of discussion^^

?? The double top possibility he posted would be when the price hits $13... we arent there yet.

No I was indeed referring to a monthly time frame. If a shoulder head shoulder-formation forms, the plunge would become even the more obvious.

Now here is another interesting chart that speaks an even bolder language:

 
Does this drop of Accumulation/Distribution coupled with a lack of downswing mean anything to anyone?

I just madde two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:

[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/35mlk6o.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl

[IMG]http://i46.tinypic.com/o0dt2b.png
https://ferroh.com/chart

The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12$ (weaker support) to 11$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.

The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11$ in our case).

Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77$ to 13$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)

Spekulatius! Do have some tips for good books on basic financial probabilistics? (German is also fine :-) What algorithms/ formulas worked best for you?

I never read a book about it. Its all on the net. Here are some good addresses to dig into if you are interested or dont know where to start. A good place to start with is investopia. Google searches generate helpful results as well (also in German!).

These are the basic things you should master if you want to do chart analysis (in this order):
- Reading different chart types (Closing Price, OHLC, Candle,..)
- Trends (what is a trend?, How to spot trends?, When do trends reverse?,..)
- Chart patterns (double top, triple bottom, diamonds,..)
- Fibonacci Reversals
- Indicators (Volume, Clouds, PSAR, RSI, Moving Averages, OBV,..)

investopedia.com (THE place to learn chart analysis)
There is so much helpful info around here to be found, one can easily loose orientation. some suggestions to start with:
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/beginner/level3/economic-data.aspx#axzz24gXlMoH1
http://www.investopedia.com/video/forex/#axzz24gXlMoH1
http://www.investopedia.com/active-trading/charts-and-patterns/#axzz24gXlMoH1
...
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm#triangle (super Elliot Wave Theory explaination; Elliot Waves, btw is advanced stuff and only apply to Bitcoin within limits IMO.)
http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html

First thing you do when looking at charts is determining the overall market sentiment (bull market or bear market?? Where are we in the Trader cycle of emotions? That helps to put everything else into context. Most impact on price have BIG news (like the recent wordpress one), they can overrule anything you think you see in a chart. Followed by that are chart patterns, for they have the best prediction power IMO. Thirdly I look at the volume, then other indicators like RSI, Bollinger Band, PSAR, the EMAs and OBV (mostly in that order).

The indicators I use: Bollinger Band, RSI, PSAR, Volume, EMA 10, EMA 21, OBV

You should in regular intervals re-evaluate the fundamentals of the market (market cap, tx count, product announcements and those still in the pipeline, legal framework and development,..). If they change, price changes. If you spot changes first, you are ahead of the market.

Now, I think you got some literature to chew on till next christmas, the good news however: The is still more!
If u got questions, PM me. And good luck!