AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract

[Mabsark]

AGAIN: Told you...

AGAIN: What is "mining variance"?

[galdur]

Variance is a hand tool popular among Bitcornians which allows them to easily achieve  seemingly difficult tasks like fitting a square peg into a round hole.

[jdany]

Here's to the crazy ones...

[Mabsark]

Variance is a hand tool popular among Bitcornians which allows them to easily achieve  seemingly difficult tasks like fitting a square peg into a round hole.

Here's a chart of the difficulty round from 02/12/14 to 17/12/14



Here's a chart of the difficulty round from 17/12/14 to 30/12/14



Here's a image of the current difficulty round from 30/12/14:



What exactly are those images supposed to be saying for themselves? What they tell me is that you haven't got a clue what you are talking about. Those images show "mining variance" which is why the hash rate fluctuates up and down. It does not show people hashing the shit out of bitcoin then switching off at the end of the round like you claim.

[galdur]

Hashrate now 292,090,936 GH/s

Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,781,864,910 (+7.73%)
Adjust time:   After 320 Blocks, About 2.1 days

How will 290,919,288 increase by 7.7% ?
How will +1.1 PH/s become +22 PH/s ?

Code:

Difficulty History

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014	40,640,955,017	3.00%	290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014	40,300,030,328	1.76%	288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014	39,603,666,252	10.05%	283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014	35,985,640,265	2.81%	257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014	35,002,482,026	0.98%	250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014	34,661,425,924	16.20%	248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s

[xhomerx10]

WTF guys! This discussion has no place in the AMHash thread. Please take the arguments elsewhere.  Create your own thread with a relevant subject such as "Discuss the nature of variance as it applies to Bitcoin" or "Bitcoin hashrate can never be accurately know but only calculated based on the number of blocks found per unit of time: Discuss"

 This thread is about AMHash.

[galdur]

Yes, enough but in parting

Bitcoin hashrate can never be accurately known

Really ? Mining is online, right ? Bitcoinwisdom is online.

Why on earth can´t current hashrate be accurately known ? Well, within say 1-2%. Why the hell is hashrate flat on the last difficulty adjustment when it´s supposed to rise by 7.7% in two days ? Where is that 20+ PH/s going to come from ? And if it´s impossible to accurately know the hashrate how can the difficulty be estimated to a single digit in a number of 40 billion ?

The best way to think about Bitcoin difficulty is to view it as the maximum amount of computing power it will take to find a particular block reward. The difficulty number is what helps keep the Bitcoin block time at around ten minutes. As more hashing power is added to the network from different computers around the world, the difficulty of finding a block needs to be adjusted accordingly. If there was no mechanism for regulating the amount of hashing power it will take to mine a particular block, then it would be impossible to effectively secure the blockchain.

Code:

Difficulty History

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014	40,640,955,017	3.00%	290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s

[ATCkit]

AMHASH shares are on the rise (0.00095). I think it will stabilize around .001 like I predicted earlier especially if btc price hits 300 which its on its way.

I'd like to share your optimism but with 20% dividend drop coming in 72 hours this price will be unsustainable at these levels because it would mean almost 6 months roi

@skuser

I like your site- ie: Live ROI calculations for cloud mining It's handier than http://www.rigwarz.com/ which is not live. I merely use rigwarz as a guide to find companies and get their prices and costs so I can do my own profitability calculations.

Would you be able to add a few more popular cloud mining companies to it? For example:

- MegaMine
- Bitcoin Cloud Services
- Genesis Mining
- Cloud Mining Website.com
- Hashlet Genesis

[eltopo]

Yes, enough but in parting

Bitcoin hashrate can never be accurately known

Really ? Mining is online, right ? Bitcoinwisdom is online.

Why on earth can´t current hashrate be accurately known ? Well, within say 1-2%. Why the hell is hashrate flat on the last difficulty adjustment when it´s supposed to rise by 7.7% in two days ? Where is that 20+ PH/s going to come from ? And if it´s impossible to accurately know the hashrate how can the difficulty be estimated to a single digit in a number of 40 billion ?

The best way to think about Bitcoin difficulty is to view it as the maximum amount of computing power it will take to find a particular block reward. The difficulty number is what helps keep the Bitcoin block time at around ten minutes. As more hashing power is added to the network from different computers around the world, the difficulty of finding a block needs to be adjusted accordingly. If there was no mechanism for regulating the amount of hashing power it will take to mine a particular block, then it would be impossible to effectively secure the blockchain.

Code:

Difficulty History

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 30 2014	40,640,955,017	3.00%	290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s

The hashrate is calculated by the average time needed until a block is found. Bitcoinwisdom calculates them by 512 blocks average, so it's just an assumed hashrate.

And please stop quoting bitcoinwisdom numbers several times a day, everybody is aware of this site. Thanks.

[galdur]

So, it´s a question of an assumed hashrate on which an assumed difficulty is based. Then big mining operators play that like a fiddle to fleece their investors. Small wonder that nobody in their right mind takes this mess seriously. Nonsensical production of a produce that has no volume  on two-bit exchanges and constantly falls in price. It totally stands to reason. But the more confidence in this nonsense tanks along with the price the more it is supposed to be worth in future. Good luck with that.

[Kuma]

So, it´s a question of an assumed hashrate on which an assumed difficulty is based. Then big mining operators play that like a fiddle to fleece their investors. Small wonder that nobody in their right mind takes this mess seriously. Nonsensical production of a produce that has no volume  on two-bit exchanges and constantly falls in price. It totally stands to reason. But the more confidence in this nonsense tanks along with the price the more it is supposed to be worth in future. Good luck with that.

Galdur, please read https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty. In short when network hashrate goes up, the difficulty goes up as well to compensate it.
Relevant citation from https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block

The difficulty of the mathematical problem is automatically adjusted by the network, such that it targets a goal of solving an average of 6 blocks per hour. Every 2016 blocks (about two weeks), all Bitcoin clients compare the actual number created with this goal and modify the target by the percentage that it varied. This increases (or decreases) the difficulty of generating blocks.

The fiat value of BTC has no direct relation to difficulty nor hashrate.

[galdur]

So, it´s a question of an assumed hashrate on which an assumed difficulty is based. Then big mining operators play that like a fiddle to fleece their investors. Small wonder that nobody in their right mind takes this mess seriously. Nonsensical production of a produce that has no volume  on two-bit exchanges and constantly falls in price. It totally stands to reason. But the more confidence in this nonsense tanks along with the price the more it is supposed to be worth in future. Good luck with that.

Galdur, please read https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty. In short when network hashrate goes up, the difficulty goes up as well to compensate it.
Relevant citation from https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block

The difficulty of the mathematical problem is automatically adjusted by the network, such that it targets a goal of solving an average of 6 blocks per hour. Every 2016 blocks (about two weeks), all Bitcoin clients compare the actual number created with this goal and modify the target by the percentage that it varied. This increases (or decreases) the difficulty of generating blocks.

The fiat value of BTC has no direct relation to difficulty nor hashrate.

Yeah, I got that. But since the hashrate now is only 1% higher than on 12/30 and the system (which presumably has accurate information of hashrate at any given time) that adjusts the difficulty figures that difficulty will rise by 8% in two days where will that 7% come from? Since difficulty is a function of hashrate then the hashrate in two days will be 8% higher than on 12/30 if that estimate is to be taken seriously, right?

Hashrate on 12/30 290,919,288 GH/s

now 292,597,077 GH/s

in two days ca. 313 PH/s ? (+8%)

[Gws24]

Because the difficulty is calculated over the entire 2016 block period! Your only looking at the begin and end points of the hashrate but diff as said is calculated over the entire period and thus the average hashrate in that period.

An analogy would be to think of a car going 60 mph and the diff is the distance travelled in a given timeframe. If the car keeps steady at 60 then diff will be x but if the car speeds up in between to say 100 mph and then goes back to 60 mph at the end of the timeframe the distance travelled will be larger because the average speed over the timeframe was higher and thus the diff wil be >x despite the begin and speeds being 60 mph.

[galdur]

Because the difficulty is calculated over the entire 2016 block period! Your only looking at the begin and end points of the hashrate but diff as said is calculated over the entire period and thus the average hashrate in that period.

An analogy would be to think of a car going 60 mph and the diff is the distance travelled in a given timeframe. If the car keeps steady at 60 then diff will be x but if the car speeds up in between to say 100 mph and then goes back to 60 mph at the end of the timeframe the distance travelled will be larger because the average speed over the timeframe was higher and thus the diff wil be >x despite the begin and speeds being 60 mph.

Yeah, I know that too. But the question still stands

Hashrate on 12/30 290,919,288 GH/s

now 291,423,304 GH/s

FLAT

Diff. estimate now ca. +8%

Where is the 23 PH/s increase  (290 PH/s + 8%) in hashrate going to come from ?

Somehow I doubt that the estimate will tank to about zero in two days.

[galdur]

I guess they jack up the hashrate, then take it down when a few hundred blocks are left to determine the desired end result. Since the 2016 block rate ends up as the eventual difficulty increase and it lags the rate of the last blocks they jack the rate up again at the end to square the books. Total manipulation. This time it looks like they get to scam customers out of 8% of payouts for the next period.

[Chris_Sabian]

Because the difficulty is calculated over the entire 2016 block period! Your only looking at the begin and end points of the hashrate but diff as said is calculated over the entire period and thus the average hashrate in that period.

An analogy would be to think of a car going 60 mph and the diff is the distance travelled in a given timeframe. If the car keeps steady at 60 then diff will be x but if the car speeds up in between to say 100 mph and then goes back to 60 mph at the end of the timeframe the distance travelled will be larger because the average speed over the timeframe was higher and thus the diff wil be >x despite the begin and speeds being 60 mph.

Yeah, I know that too. But the question still stands

Hashrate on 12/30 290,919,288 GH/s

now 291,423,304 GH/s

FLAT

Diff. estimate now ca. +8%

Where is the 23 PH/s increase  (290 PH/s + 8%) in hashrate going to come from ?

Somehow I doubt that the estimate will tank to about zero in two days.

Read this part again:

Because the difficulty is calculated over the entire 2016 block period! Your only looking at the begin and end points of the hashrate but diff as said is calculated over the entire period and thus the average hashrate in that period.

An analogy would be to think of a car going 60 mph and the diff is the distance travelled in a given timeframe. If the car keeps steady at 60 then diff will be x but if the car speeds up in between to say 100 mph and then goes back to 60 mph at the end of the timeframe the distance travelled will be larger because the average speed over the timeframe was higher and thus the diff wil be >x despite the begin and speeds being 60 mph.

The hashrate climbed quickly to ~330 Ph about 1/2 way through the last difficulty.  A few days ago, hashrate has dropped to ~290 Ph.  Since the difficulty to measured across 2016 blocks and not instantly, and the 1st 1/2 of this difficulty was during high hashrate, the difficulty will increase even with the hashrate drop.  Because the hashrate is going to be under the next difficulty, there may be a drop in the difficulty after next.

Please read more about blocks and difficulty before you post again instead of shooting out dozens of poorly made posts a day.

[Gws24]

The average hashrate over 2016 blocks is NOT FLAT..........

If your looking at the average hashrate reported by bitcoinwisdom (grey line)  then you need to know that it is calculated over only the last 504 blocks but diff is calculated over the last 2016 blocks (green line) and then the average hashrate is not flat.

[Kuma]

I guess they jack up the hashrate, then take it down when a few hundred blocks are left to determine the desired end result. Since the 2016 block rate ends up as the eventual difficulty increase and it lags the rate of the last blocks they jack the rate up again at the end to square the books. Total manipulation. This time it looks like they get to scam customers out of 8% of payouts for the next period.

As Gws24 wrote, next difficulty is calculated for the entire 2016 block period! So there's no way how can someone make a profit from this. There is no central authority, no banks etc. If someone does what you think it is done, it will affect this subject as well.
If you have 23 PH/s it's best to turn it on and mine as much as you can.

[Gws24]

As a sidenote, when we're talking about hashrate we're actually talking about observed hashrate. The blockchain doesn't know the hashrate and neither does the algorithm that calculates difficulty. All it uses is the time that was needed to generate 2016 blocks and if the average time between blocks was lower than 10 minutes diff goes up and if it was higher diff goes down.

EDIT: Galdur, if you still don't understand I suggest you open a new topic about it the mining subforum; it's a bit offtopic here.

[galdur]

I guess they jack up the hashrate, then take it down when a few hundred blocks are left to determine the desired end result. Since the 2016 block rate ends up as the eventual difficulty increase and it lags the rate of the last blocks they jack the rate up again at the end to square the books. Total manipulation. This time it looks like they get to scam customers out of 8% of payouts for the next period.

As Gws24 wrote, next difficulty is calculated for the entire 2016 block period! So there's no way how can someone make a profit from this. There is no central authority, no banks etc. If someone does what you think it is done, it will affect this subject as well.
If you have 23 PH/s it's best to turn it on and mine as much as you can.

For all I know there could be a cartel in China screwing with this mess. Maybe they don´t really subscribe to all those noble bitcoin ideals of us here in the west. Most mining and dumping of BTC takes place in China, right ? I´m sure it´s being done in the most systematic way.