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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1650830 times)
molecular
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February 20, 2013, 06:32:40 AM
 #10861

Don't underestimate the potential news coverage resulting from breaking the all time high. It can be wide reaching. That is speculation though, we will see after we actually break the all time high.

And that might be the point where I'm going to move over to Adams side. News hype taking bitcoin from 32 to 50+ in 1-2 weeks? That'll look like a bubble to me. We're not there yet, though and I figure there will be quite some resistance before we break the alltime high.

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February 20, 2013, 06:35:55 AM
 #10862

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

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February 20, 2013, 06:42:17 AM
 #10863

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There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
hmmmstrange
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February 20, 2013, 07:15:30 AM
 #10864

I'm sure a lot of cold storage coins came out and went to avalon.
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February 20, 2013, 07:29:58 AM
 #10865

I'm sure a lot of cold storage coins came out and went to avalon.

that pretty much equals selling.

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February 20, 2013, 07:38:33 AM
 #10866

I'm sure a lot of cold storage coins came out and went to avalon.

that pretty much equals selling.

No.

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February 20, 2013, 07:46:47 AM
 #10867

I'm sure a lot of cold storage coins came out and went to avalon.

that pretty much equals selling.

I agree that those coins will eventually be dumped if not already. But looking at the days destroyed metric is a lot muddier now. Judging "dumping" sentiment off that is not as valid as 2011.
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February 20, 2013, 08:15:15 AM
 #10868

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?


Absolutely that would be the case. All this gives is an indication that at least some old coins are changing hands.
I think the best way to know how bitcoins are becoming more widely distributed is to extract the top 1000 "richest" addresses every month, and determine the percentage change each time.

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February 20, 2013, 09:27:23 AM
 #10869

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?


Absolutely that would be the case. All this gives is an indication that at least some old coins are changing hands.
I think the best way to know how bitcoins are becoming more widely distributed is to extract the top 1000 "richest" addresses every month, and determine the percentage change each time.

I am thinking if we can slightly modify the days destroyed metric, e.g. to add weights to coins sitting dormant since before 2011, or using power function of "unspent days" in calculating the metric, on the assumption that bitcoin purchases/mined at later times are more likely to be of small amounts, as the price after the crash was still much higher than it was before the crash even at its lowest point, which limits the possibility of large purchases. Needless to say it excludes the early adopters cashed out at the top and bought back at the bottom, but in that case the volume would be really massive, yet I have not seen such volumes yet.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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February 20, 2013, 10:01:16 AM
 #10870

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?


Absolutely that would be the case. All this gives is an indication that at least some old coins are changing hands.
I think the best way to know how bitcoins are becoming more widely distributed is to extract the top 1000 "richest" addresses every month, and determine the percentage change each time.

I am thinking if we can slightly modify the days destroyed metric, e.g. to add weights to coins sitting dormant since before 2011, or using power function of "unspent days" in calculating the metric, on the assumption that bitcoin purchases/mined at later times are more likely to be of small amounts, as the price after the crash was still much higher than it was before the crash even at its lowest point, which limits the possibility of large purchases. Needless to say it excludes the early adopters cashed out at the top and bought back at the bottom, but in that case the volume would be really massive, yet I have not seen such volumes yet.

The 7 days average is much more informative here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

Else there was some chart that's not being continued where you could see from which time frame coin days came that were destroyed but in a very coarse monthly sum up. Don't remember the url … http://statistics.ecdsa.org/ … I had asked Piuk to make something similar and I guess he was intrigued by the idea. Lets see. Hope he does it.

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February 20, 2013, 10:06:35 AM
 #10871

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?


Absolutely that would be the case. All this gives is an indication that at least some old coins are changing hands.
I think the best way to know how bitcoins are becoming more widely distributed is to extract the top 1000 "richest" addresses every month, and determine the percentage change each time.

I am thinking if we can slightly modify the days destroyed metric, e.g. to add weights to coins sitting dormant since before 2011, or using power function of "unspent days" in calculating the metric, on the assumption that bitcoin purchases/mined at later times are more likely to be of small amounts, as the price after the crash was still much higher than it was before the crash even at its lowest point, which limits the possibility of large purchases. Needless to say it excludes the early adopters cashed out at the top and bought back at the bottom, but in that case the volume would be really massive, yet I have not seen such volumes yet.

The 7 days average is much more informative here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

Else there was some chart that's not being continued where you could see from which time frame coin days came that were destroyed but in a very coarse monthly sum up. Don't remember the url … http://statistics.ecdsa.org/ … I had asked Piuk to make something similar and I guess he was intrigued by the idea. Lets see. Hope he does it.

cool, 30-day average (https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0&address=)



EDIT: and all-time: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


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oakpacific
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February 20, 2013, 10:08:58 AM
 #10872

...
There are also some bears, like Proudhon, preaching the theory that a few people controlling large amount of bitcoins which they bought at very low prices are going to cash out at anytime, in that case I would say let the dump come then, for the general safety of the system, the bitcoins must be distributed as even as possible, so the sooner the dump, the better.

It is happening. After June 2011, this month has had a record day for coins coming out of cold storage onto the market...
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

Very good discovery, thanks. But does it have to do with the coins being stored twice as long that the number is so high, yet the amount of coins is not as large as it was in June 2011?


Absolutely that would be the case. All this gives is an indication that at least some old coins are changing hands.
I think the best way to know how bitcoins are becoming more widely distributed is to extract the top 1000 "richest" addresses every month, and determine the percentage change each time.

I am thinking if we can slightly modify the days destroyed metric, e.g. to add weights to coins sitting dormant since before 2011, or using power function of "unspent days" in calculating the metric, on the assumption that bitcoin purchases/mined at later times are more likely to be of small amounts, as the price after the crash was still much higher than it was before the crash even at its lowest point, which limits the possibility of large purchases. Needless to say it excludes the early adopters cashed out at the top and bought back at the bottom, but in that case the volume would be really massive, yet I have not seen such volumes yet.

The 7 days average is much more informative here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

Else there was some chart that's not being continued where you could see from which time frame coin days came that were destroyed but in a very coarse monthly sum up. Don't remember the url … http://statistics.ecdsa.org/ … I had asked Piuk to make something similar and I guess he was intrigued by the idea. Lets see. Hope he does it.

Thanks a million, I was just looking for this address, which I forgot to bookmark.

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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February 20, 2013, 10:16:50 AM
 #10873

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/

oakpacific
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February 20, 2013, 10:17:50 AM
 #10874

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/

Gorgeous, exactly what I was looking for, your donation address please?

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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February 20, 2013, 10:21:16 AM
 #10875

Something is fishy about these charts. The longer the time to average over, the smoother I would expect.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=120&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

The last one seams to be wrong.

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February 20, 2013, 10:23:33 AM
 #10876

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/

Gorgeous, exactly what I was looking for, your donation address please?

Wanna buy some silver? Or just $$? My $36 auction is still at $5 although it contains silver and coins that would be worth $5 for one $1 coin (Eisenhower $). Pushing this to at least $36 minus shipping would be much appreciated Wink

camolist
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February 20, 2013, 10:27:30 AM
 #10877

Wanna buy some silver? Or just $$? My $36 auction is still at $5 although it contains silver and coins that would be worth $5 for one $1 coin (Eisenhower $). Pushing this to at least $36 minus shipping would be much appreciated Wink

don't worry, watching/bidding  Wink


(edit) done (and got outbid automatically)

oakpacific
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February 20, 2013, 10:30:18 AM
 #10878

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/

Gorgeous, exactly what I was looking for, your donation address please?

Wanna buy some silver? Or just $$? My $36 auction is still at $5 although it contains silver and coins that would be worth $5 for one $1 coin (Eisenhower $). Pushing this to at least $36 minus shipping would be much appreciated Wink

I would love to, but I kinda suck at keeping little things from missing, one of the reasons I use bitcoins is that I could never find all those receipts, so, I would still prefer a donation address Tongue

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
arklan
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Just along for the ride...


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February 20, 2013, 11:11:21 AM
 #10879

On another note, do you have the address of a page where blockchain transactions and executed Gox transactions are displayed simultaneously in some live charts? I have also seen it long ago.

http://www.bitcoinmonitor.com/

Gorgeous, exactly what I was looking for, your donation address please?

holy crap that's an awesome visualization! saving that link for sure.
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February 20, 2013, 12:08:07 PM
 #10880

https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130220.html

Buy, buy, buy  Grin
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