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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1650043 times)
ThiagoCMC
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January 19, 2013, 04:11:11 AM
 #7641

Whats an EA dump?

Just ask this or IRC... Early Adopter...   =)

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oakpacific
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January 19, 2013, 04:51:31 AM
 #7642

The weekend dip thing tells us exactly why banks suck.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
waspoza
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January 19, 2013, 10:38:46 AM
 #7643

Whats an EA dump?

Just ask this or IRC... Early Adopter...   =)

Early adopters sold long ago.
thoughtfan
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January 19, 2013, 11:05:02 AM
 #7644

Whats an EA dump?

Just ask this or IRC... Early Adopter...   =)

Early adopters sold long ago.
My guess is that the vast majority of early adopters did sell the vast majority of what they had long ago.  However I read something somewhere saying there's a good few big chunks of Bitcoin that haven't moved since day 1.  Whilst I can accept most of that is likely to have been wiped from disks or forgotten about it is not inconceivable to me that a few may have held back what to you and me is a large sum with the intention of selling when the value has gone up sky high.

My reason for thinking it's unlikely they'll have much of an impact on the market in the current flurry is if they've held out so far they're likely to be holding out for a lot more than $16/BTC and are more likely to dump (as quick as they can without bombing the price) at $100 or $1,000/BTC - and by then (if we ever get there) it's just as likely they'll be paying for their cars/houses/yachts etc. directly in BTC than having to sell for fiat in order to do so.

Just another opinion to throw into the mix.

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
ElectricMucus
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January 19, 2013, 11:35:46 AM
 #7645

Whats an EA dump?

Just ask this or IRC... Early Adopter...   =)

Early adopters sold long ago.

how do you know?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
hazek
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January 19, 2013, 11:41:46 AM
 #7646

Whats an EA dump?

Just ask this or IRC... Early Adopter...   =)

Early adopters sold long ago.
My guess is that the vast majority of early adopters did sell the vast majority of what they had long ago.  However I read something somewhere saying there's a good few big chunks of Bitcoin that haven't moved since day 1.  Whilst I can accept most of that is likely to have been wiped from disks or forgotten about it is not inconceivable to me that a few may have held back what to you and me is a large sum with the intention of selling when the value has gone up sky high.

My reason for thinking it's unlikely they'll have much of an impact on the market in the current flurry is if they've held out so far they're likely to be holding out for a lot more than $16/BTC and are more likely to dump (as quick as they can without bombing the price) at $100 or $1,000/BTC - and by then (if we ever get there) it's just as likely they'll be paying for their cars/houses/yachts etc. directly in BTC than having to sell for fiat in order to do so.

Just another opinion to throw into the mix.

You can see which bitcoins moved or didn't move yet or haven't moved since here: http://statistics.ecdsa.org/

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

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elux
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January 19, 2013, 02:03:22 PM
 #7647


Trend reversal from here? The tides seem to be turning.


lucif
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January 19, 2013, 02:09:05 PM
 #7648


Trend reversal from here? The tides seem to be turning.




Probably.

http://onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/EveningStar.html

No gaps here in 24/7 marketplace.
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January 19, 2013, 03:16:51 PM
 #7649


Trend reversal from here? The tides seem to be turning.




I think so.  Likely going to see a mutli-month decline/stagnation.
The Fool
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January 19, 2013, 03:22:14 PM
 #7650

It's just leveling off. This RSI is just exasperated by the weekend effect combined with the sudden rise.

We may see the uptrend continue after the weekend. BitInstant revenue data would be a good way to tell what will happen.
proudhon
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January 19, 2013, 03:28:52 PM
 #7651

It's just leveling off. This RSI is just exasperated by the weekend effect combined with the sudden rise.

We may see the uptrend continue after the weekend. BitInstant revenue data would be a good way to tell what will happen.

Maybe, but is seems clear enough that the big players are trying to scare the price down to grab more coins, and they have enough weight to do it.  Selling into everything above $15 could induce panic and they could easily place themselves to buy back in the panic that follows into the $14s.  I mentioned a day or two ago that the order book would probably be flipping (i.e. asks mounting up against bids), and it appears to be happening right now.  Bids are going to get scared away.  We're at the beginning of a long down trend, I think.
humanitee
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January 19, 2013, 03:30:29 PM
 #7652

Rally resumes Monday.

Bears were counting on the weekend dip, they counted wrong.
The Fool
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January 19, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
 #7653

It's just leveling off. This RSI is just exasperated by the weekend effect combined with the sudden rise.

We may see the uptrend continue after the weekend. BitInstant revenue data would be a good way to tell what will happen.

Maybe, but is seems clear enough that the big players are trying to scare the price down to grab more coins, and they have enough weight to do it.  Selling into everything above $15 could induce panic and they could easily place themselves to buy back in the panic that follows into the $14s.  I mentioned a day or two ago that the order book would probably be flipping (i.e. asks mounting up against bids), and it appears to be happening right now.  Bids are going to get scared away.  We're at the beginning of a long down trend, I think.

From $14-$15, there is a demand for 30,000 Bitcoins. That backing adds too much certainty for there to be a significant decline past $14.95. People can try to make a quick buck all they like but it's not based in market fundamentals.

Additionally, I think this is market is mature enough to be immune to such manipulation.
proudhon
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January 19, 2013, 03:33:18 PM
 #7654

Rally resumes Monday.

Bears were counting on the weekend dip, they counted wrong.

What are you talking about?  It's dipping.  And the order book has almost completely turned around.  The big buying money has been spent.  The people who spent it now have lots of bitcoins, and they're probably the same ones you're seeing placed as giant ask walls on the ask side.  The hope would be that they could use the bitcoins they just bought to scare the price back down and in the process sell some of them to buy back more.
The Fool
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January 19, 2013, 03:34:24 PM
 #7655

Rally resumes Monday.

Bears were counting on the weekend dip, they counted wrong.

What are you talking about?  It's dipping.  And the order book has almost completely turned around.  The big buying money has been spent.  The people who spent it now have lots of bitcoins, and they're probably the same ones you're seeing placed as giant ask walls on the ask side.  The hope would be that they could use the bitcoins they just bought to scare the price back down and in the process sell some of them to buy back more.

Weekend. Additionally, shorters aren't going to take too much risk.
proudhon
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January 19, 2013, 03:37:07 PM
 #7656

It's just leveling off. This RSI is just exasperated by the weekend effect combined with the sudden rise.

We may see the uptrend continue after the weekend. BitInstant revenue data would be a good way to tell what will happen.

Maybe, but is seems clear enough that the big players are trying to scare the price down to grab more coins, and they have enough weight to do it.  Selling into everything above $15 could induce panic and they could easily place themselves to buy back in the panic that follows into the $14s.  I mentioned a day or two ago that the order book would probably be flipping (i.e. asks mounting up against bids), and it appears to be happening right now.  Bids are going to get scared away.  We're at the beginning of a long down trend, I think.

From $14-$15, there is a demand for 30,000 Bitcoins. That backing adds too much certainty for there to be a significant decline past $14.95. People can try to make a quick buck all they like but it's not based in market fundamentals.

Additionally, I think this is market is mature enough to be immune to such manipulation.

By comparison to standard markets, this market is tiny and absolutely ripe for this kind of manipulation.  There are plenty of people on MtGox with more than 30,000 bitcoins at their disposal to wipe out the "demand" above $14 and then some.  I almost consider it an act of pure charity that these people don't just take their insane profits (most of them probably accumulated well under $10, or even $2) and leave this market in shambles.
The Fool
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January 19, 2013, 03:41:40 PM
 #7657

It's just leveling off. This RSI is just exasperated by the weekend effect combined with the sudden rise.

We may see the uptrend continue after the weekend. BitInstant revenue data would be a good way to tell what will happen.

Maybe, but is seems clear enough that the big players are trying to scare the price down to grab more coins, and they have enough weight to do it.  Selling into everything above $15 could induce panic and they could easily place themselves to buy back in the panic that follows into the $14s.  I mentioned a day or two ago that the order book would probably be flipping (i.e. asks mounting up against bids), and it appears to be happening right now.  Bids are going to get scared away.  We're at the beginning of a long down trend, I think.

From $14-$15, there is a demand for 30,000 Bitcoins. That backing adds too much certainty for there to be a significant decline past $14.95. People can try to make a quick buck all they like but it's not based in market fundamentals.

Additionally, I think this is market is mature enough to be immune to such manipulation.

By comparison to standard markets, this market is tiny and absolutely ripe for this kind of manipulation.  There are plenty of people on MtGox with more than 30,000 bitcoins at their disposal to wipe out the "demand" above $14 and then some.  I almost consider it an act of pure charity that these people don't just take their insane profits (most of them probably accumulated well under $10, or even $2) and leave this market in shambles.

I concede the point.
humanitee
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January 19, 2013, 04:34:15 PM
 #7658

Rally resumes Monday.

Bears were counting on the weekend dip, they counted wrong.

What are you talking about?  It's dipping.  And the order book has almost completely turned around.  The big buying money has been spent.  The people who spent it now have lots of bitcoins, and they're probably the same ones you're seeing placed as giant ask walls on the ask side.  The hope would be that they could use the bitcoins they just bought to scare the price back down and in the process sell some of them to buy back more.

Yeah whatever. People start buying into that shit it's disappearing. The volume that drove us up was much higher than this. If it gets pushed into $14, then MAYBE, just MAYBE, I'll agree.

We've gone back like $.40 on a much larger gain, on the weekend when money is not flowing into the exchanges, on a long weekend when banks are closed on Monday. This is just a facade. The fact that it hasn't gone lower shows just how bullish the market is.
lebing
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January 19, 2013, 05:35:18 PM
 #7659

Make a bet Proudhon - I'll bet you 10 btc we continue the climb next week

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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January 19, 2013, 08:07:26 PM
 #7660

Make a bet Proudhon - I'll bet you 10 btc we continue the climb next week

thats alot of money .... potentially millions  Cheesy

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