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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649671 times)
Comodore
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January 24, 2013, 05:35:31 PM
 #8241

Bought 8,5 BTC at 19,1 wtf am I doing?!?
Lol,A lot of individuals sold earlier but think of it as an expensive investment.You WILL lose on it....but sometimes the market surprises you.

buy high sell low or what you are talking about??

We will see, there is nothing certain but scarcity as fundament.
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Bugpowder
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January 24, 2013, 05:35:49 PM
 #8242

In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.

Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.

Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/

The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account.  Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?

All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.



Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?

the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20).  So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not).  But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies).

The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35).  So some seller is VERY bullish.  Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).




Sell short a put means he used the MKOPT function to create puts, for which he needs to deposit a sum of roughly 2.5 BTC / contract at these strike prices.  He then sells the put to the market-making bot, booking a gain of the sale price (~0.9BTC/contract).  On options expiration (today at 10pm GMT), the put is exercised and he gets his deposit back, minus the current value of the put.  For example, if the current 24hour volume weight BTC price at the time of expiration is $20 / BTC, for one put with a $35 strike price he gets back his deposit (2.5 BTC) minus the put value (35-20)/20=0.75.  So, -2.5 +0.9 + 2.5 - 0.75 = 0.15 BTC profit per put.  0.15/2.5 = 6% return on capital in about 12 hours.

Of course, the BTCUSD price could crash.   For example to $15.  Then -2.5 + 0.9 + 2.5 - (35-15)/20 = -0.1 BTC/contract  a 4% loss on capital.

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January 24, 2013, 05:35:57 PM
 #8243

5k wall at 18.9... I roll my eyes.
uhoh
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January 24, 2013, 05:37:43 PM
 #8244

Turning out to be quite an exciting night
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January 24, 2013, 05:38:49 PM
 #8245

In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move.

Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike.
Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike.

Chatlog :
http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/

The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account.  Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward?

All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW.



Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)?

the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20).  So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not).  But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies).

The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35).  So some seller is VERY bullish.  Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security).




Selling puts is actually a very smart way to buy in a rising market. So the price is 19 USD and I sell a put for with a strike price of 34 USD. I get 15 USD and a premium on top and have the obligation to purchase 1 BTC tomorrow for 34 USD. If the price is stable or even drops a little I get to acquire my BTC without moving the market. If the price rises to less than 34 USD the holder of the puts has to buy at market in order the exercise the put and get some of his money back. This is the best scenario for the seller of the put.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
jasinlee
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Its as easy as 0, 1, 1, 2, 3


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January 24, 2013, 05:39:32 PM
 #8246

Iceberg!

BTC 1JASiNZxmAN1WBS4dmGEDoPpzN3GV7dnjX DVC 1CxxZzqcy7YEVXfCn5KvgRxjeWvPpniK3                     Earn Devcoins Devtome.com
uhoh
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Circle gets the Square


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January 24, 2013, 05:42:58 PM
 #8247

jasinlee
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Its as easy as 0, 1, 1, 2, 3


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January 24, 2013, 05:44:02 PM
 #8248

Wow it took a while for that to start going down eve a little bit.

BTC 1JASiNZxmAN1WBS4dmGEDoPpzN3GV7dnjX DVC 1CxxZzqcy7YEVXfCn5KvgRxjeWvPpniK3                     Earn Devcoins Devtome.com
Gyrsur
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#BEL+++++


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January 24, 2013, 05:45:35 PM
 #8249

wow, $19.20 - $18.20 within minutes. in forex you have 1.3320 - 1.3220 within minutes.

Comodore
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January 24, 2013, 05:46:06 PM
 #8250

We will see there are just big fake walls.
zby
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January 24, 2013, 05:53:46 PM
 #8251

Has S just released a prediction?
NamelessOne
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January 24, 2013, 05:57:01 PM
 #8252

The walls are gone now.
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January 24, 2013, 05:57:05 PM
 #8253

mccorvic
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January 24, 2013, 05:58:56 PM
 #8254

Every time there is a decent sell then a decent buy I can't help but think that someone is saying, "Damn! I didn't crash the market. Now I have to buy all my coins again Sad"

Offering Video/Audio Editing Services since 2011 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77932.0
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January 24, 2013, 06:00:16 PM
 #8255

Every time there is a decent sell then a decent buy I can't help but think that someone is saying, "Damn! I didn't crash the market. Now I have to buy all my coins again Sad"

I hope so, I really hope so. It would be very enjoyable.
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January 24, 2013, 06:00:57 PM
 #8256



this is my chart I wrote a while back. Pretty accurate, no?

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Comodore
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January 24, 2013, 06:07:19 PM
 #8257



Fake walls seriously gone. For the infinity and beyond. Why do they hate me saing this?
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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January 24, 2013, 06:08:40 PM
 #8258



Fake walls seriously gone. For the infinity and beyond. Why do they hate me saing this?



5k was bought.
zby
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January 24, 2013, 06:15:47 PM
 #8259

cup and handle?
humanitee
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January 24, 2013, 06:21:10 PM
 #8260

100k volume, damn damn.
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