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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651426 times)
zby
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January 26, 2013, 08:27:01 AM
 #8601

It does not need to be a coordinated attack - USA alone is enough to scare investors, sure the anarchists will stay with bitcoin till the end - but USA can destroy the exchanges.

mtgox is in Japan. But lets say they shut them down, the volume would be back, distributed among the rest of the platforms within a month, prices in 2 months.
Even if they manage to shut down all the popular exchanges (btc-e is in russia btw, good luck with that) there would be new ones after a week.
They can stop american banks talk to them - this would be enough to send the price in a down spiral.

That said - I don't really believe that they would do it before bitcoin starts the real disruption - the government machine cannot outlaw something that easily, it takes years to come to a reasonable legislation etc.  But if stuff like what Falkvinge wrote about http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/19/the-information-policy-case-for-flat-tax-and-basic-income/ happens then we'll see what the US government can and what it cannot.  If until that time bitcoin has a lot of business going on it and not just the drugs and rhino horns - then this will be a fight - otherwise they'll crush the currency by undermining trust in it.  A currency without trust is worthless.
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January 26, 2013, 10:20:58 AM
 #8602

It does not need to be a coordinated attack - USA alone is enough to scare investors, sure the anarchists will stay with bitcoin till the end - but USA can destroy the exchanges.

mtgox is in Japan. But lets say they shut them down, the volume would be back, distributed among the rest of the platforms within a month, prices in 2 months.
Even if they manage to shut down all the popular exchanges (btc-e is in russia btw, good luck with that) there would be new ones after a week.
They can stop american banks talk to them - this would be enough to send the price in a down spiral.

That said - I don't really believe that they would do it before bitcoin starts the real disruption - the government machine cannot outlaw something that easily, it takes years to come to a reasonable legislation etc.  But if stuff like what Falkvinge wrote about http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/19/the-information-policy-case-for-flat-tax-and-basic-income/ happens then we'll see what the US government can and what it cannot.  If until that time bitcoin has a lot of business going on it and not just the drugs and rhino horns - then this will be a fight - otherwise they'll crush the currency by undermining trust in it.  A currency without trust is worthless.

Maybe, but In my opinion, I think that any official action the US government takes against bitcoin will simply initiate the Kenobi effect.

"strike me down and shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine"

In essence, the mere fact that the US government would officially recognize bitcoin as a threat would itself lend Bitcoin credence.
Aside from that, there is the Bureaucratic and legal jungle in which trying to outlaw bitcoin basically boils down to outlawing free speech.

But before that there's the task of even getting law makers to give a damn. These are the same people who lost billions (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/06/19/missing-iraq-money-may-be-as-much-as-18-billion/) and just shrug their shoulders. they're not going to give a damn about bitcoin's measly <200 million economy.

Trying to incite public outrage with "it buys drugs!" will be seen as just more war on drugs rhetoric. The majority of US citizens see it as a monumental failure, and the political climate towards drugs is beginning to change anyway, what with Washington and Colorado legalizing marijuana.

Anyway, any direct action will just serve to promote it, people will read about it and they will see how awesome it is.

and they will want to use it

I think the governments best shot at stopping bitcoin is ignoring it all together...




 
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January 26, 2013, 10:36:50 AM
 #8603

It does not need to be a coordinated attack - USA alone is enough to scare investors, sure the anarchists will stay with bitcoin till the end - but USA can destroy the exchanges.

mtgox is in Japan. But lets say they shut them down, the volume would be back, distributed among the rest of the platforms within a month, prices in 2 months.
Even if they manage to shut down all the popular exchanges (btc-e is in russia btw, good luck with that) there would be new ones after a week.
They can stop american banks talk to them - this would be enough to send the price in a down spiral.

That said - I don't really believe that they would do it before bitcoin starts the real disruption - the government machine cannot outlaw something that easily, it takes years to come to a reasonable legislation etc.  But if stuff like what Falkvinge wrote about http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/19/the-information-policy-case-for-flat-tax-and-basic-income/ happens then we'll see what the US government can and what it cannot.  If until that time bitcoin has a lot of business going on it and not just the drugs and rhino horns - then this will be a fight - otherwise they'll crush the currency by undermining trust in it.  A currency without trust is worthless.

Maybe, but In my opinion, I think that any official action the US government takes against bitcoin will simply initiate the Kenobi effect.

"strike me down and shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine"

In essence, the mere fact that the US government would officially recognize bitcoin as a threat would itself lend Bitcoin credence.
Aside from that, there is the Bureaucratic and legal jungle in which trying to outlaw bitcoin basically boils down to outlawing free speech.

But before that there's the task of even getting law makers to give a damn. These are the same people who lost billions (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/06/19/missing-iraq-money-may-be-as-much-as-18-billion/) and just shrug their shoulders. they're not going to give a damn about bitcoin's measly <200 million economy.

Trying to incite public outrage with "it buys drugs!" will be seen as just more war on drugs rhetoric. The majority of US citizens see it as a monumental failure, and the political climate towards drugs is beginning to change anyway, what with Washington and Colorado legalizing marijuana.

Anyway, any direct action will just serve to promote it, people will read about it and they will see how awesome it is.

I think the governments best shot at stopping bitcoin is ignoring it all together...




 


Besides, just like explosives/guns, Bitcoin could be considered destructive to/useful for the government at the same time, as are all technological inventions which are impartial and neutral.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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January 26, 2013, 11:06:53 AM
 #8604

I didn't realize btc-e was in Russia. Yes, that would make them harder to actually take down.

You know what we really need? Another large, popular exchange in Brazil.


There is echange in India in the making. https://twitter.com/bensonsamuel/status/291228332962496513
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January 26, 2013, 11:37:53 AM
 #8605

I didn't realize btc-e was in Russia. Yes, that would make them harder to actually take down.

You know what we really need? Another large, popular exchange in Brazil.


There is echange in India in the making. https://twitter.com/bensonsamuel/status/291228332962496513

And you got this in Brazil. Small, but growing.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mrcdBRL.html
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January 26, 2013, 11:47:09 AM
 #8606

What we need is a reliable peer-to-peer exchange. The problem is to connect this system to the fiat economy...
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January 26, 2013, 11:48:40 AM
 #8607

What we need is a reliable peer-to-peer exchange. The problem is to connect this system to the fiat economy...

I think something like that would be possible with a digital fiat currency like MINT chip. I'm only guessing though. I have no idea how any of that would work.
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January 26, 2013, 11:49:18 AM
 #8608

After the $30 peak, it took some time before people realised that it had become a bear market.

Exactly.  It'll take a while, but eventually I think we're likely to get into the $10 area, and probably lower.  I've got all the time in the world.

proudhon, tell us at what price you'll actually buy and become a bull.  b/c you've been a bear all the way down to $2 and now all the way up to $19 and back down to where we are now.  when, oh when?

He was a bull here  Cheesy

its ok.  double bottoms are not uncommon.  the blockchain marches on.

RISK ON!  LOL

Any day now the money is going to come pouring in, you'll see, you'll see...

...and he bought coins last summer.
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January 26, 2013, 12:40:28 PM
 #8609

After the $30 peak, it took some time before people realised that it had become a bear market.

Exactly.  It'll take a while, but eventually I think we're likely to get into the $10 area, and probably lower.  I've got all the time in the world.

proudhon, tell us at what price you'll actually buy and become a bull.  b/c you've been a bear all the way down to $2 and now all the way up to $19 and back down to where we are now.  when, oh when?

He was a bull here  Cheesy

its ok.  double bottoms are not uncommon.  the blockchain marches on.

RISK ON!  LOL

Any day now the money is going to come pouring in, you'll see, you'll see...

...and he bought coins last summer.

Yeah, he will panic buy at $99.9 Cheesy

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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January 26, 2013, 02:41:41 PM
 #8610

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

Tips and donations:

15nqQGfkgoxrBnsshD6vCuMWuz71MK51Ug
Hexadecibel
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January 26, 2013, 02:42:20 PM
 #8611

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same
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January 26, 2013, 02:44:38 PM
 #8612

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same

Does that mean 17~ish stability or a slow fall?

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15nqQGfkgoxrBnsshD6vCuMWuz71MK51Ug
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January 26, 2013, 02:46:42 PM
 #8613

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same

Does that mean 17~ish stability or a slow fall?

We will continue up. There's no reason to go down.
proudhon
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January 26, 2013, 03:28:32 PM
 #8614

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same

Does that mean 17~ish stability or a slow fall?

We will continue up. There's no reason to go down.

There's a great reason to go down, and it's a reason I'm sure lots of people are considering right now -- "I want more bitcoins".  Enough people thinking that catalyze long trend changes.  The big dumps were the big boys telling everyone which way they want to go, and it'll only be a matter of time before the herd complies.  This is just the way it works around here.
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January 26, 2013, 03:46:03 PM
 #8615

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same

Does that mean 17~ish stability or a slow fall?

We will continue up. There's no reason to go down.

There's a great reason to go down, and it's a reason I'm sure lots of people are considering right now -- "I want more bitcoins".  Enough people thinking that catalyze long trend changes.  The big dumps were the big boys telling everyone which way they want to go, and it'll only be a matter of time before the herd complies.  This is just the way it works around here.

Bullshit. Not with the news like this: Infiniti Poker Set to Go Live in February: Will Use Bitcoins for Americans
Online Casinos Attracted By BitCoin
And many more of the like.

Let me guess, you sold?  Grin
Hexadecibel
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January 26, 2013, 04:04:25 PM
 #8616

What are your current predictions?

What do you think is going to happen after this weekend?

more of the same

Does that mean 17~ish stability or a slow fall?

We will continue up. There's no reason to go down.

There's a great reason to go down, and it's a reason I'm sure lots of people are considering right now -- "I want more bitcoins".  Enough people thinking that catalyze long trend changes.  The big dumps were the big boys telling everyone which way they want to go, and it'll only be a matter of time before the herd complies.  This is just the way it works around here.

Bullshit. Not with the news like this: Infiniti Poker Set to Go Live in February: Will Use Bitcoins for Americans
Online Casinos Attracted By BitCoin
And many more of the like.

Let me guess, you sold?  Grin

oh look, proudhon is talking
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January 26, 2013, 04:17:48 PM
 #8617

There's a great reason to go down, and it's a reason I'm sure lots of people are considering right now -- "I want more bitcoins".  Enough people thinking that catalyze long trend changes.  The big dumps were the big boys telling everyone which way they want to go, and it'll only be a matter of time before the herd complies.  This is just the way it works around here.

Bullshit. Not with the news like this: Infiniti Poker Set to Go Live in February: Will Use Bitcoins for Americans
Online Casinos Attracted By BitCoin
And many more of the like.

Let me guess, you sold?  Grin

oh look, proudhon is talking

To be honest, I think proudhon is a nice bear.  From what I have seen he just states his beliefs in a respectful way. 
Hexadecibel
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January 26, 2013, 04:22:55 PM
 #8618

There's a great reason to go down, and it's a reason I'm sure lots of people are considering right now -- "I want more bitcoins".  Enough people thinking that catalyze long trend changes.  The big dumps were the big boys telling everyone which way they want to go, and it'll only be a matter of time before the herd complies.  This is just the way it works around here.

Bullshit. Not with the news like this: Infiniti Poker Set to Go Live in February: Will Use Bitcoins for Americans
Online Casinos Attracted By BitCoin
And many more of the like.

Let me guess, you sold?  Grin

oh look, proudhon is talking

To be honest, I think proudhon is a nice bear.  From what I have seen he just states his beliefs in a respectful way. 

he says the same tired dirbble he's been spouting for over a year.
cypherdoc
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January 26, 2013, 04:25:52 PM
 #8619

What we need is a reliable peer-to-peer exchange. The problem is to connect this system to the fiat economy...

it already is.  i've got my connection down to 7h via wire exchanges.  and even if gox gets shutdown, the connection will always be there on the streets via person to person exchange.
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January 26, 2013, 04:31:41 PM
 #8620

To be honest, I think proudhon is a nice bear.  From what I have seen he just states his beliefs in a respectful way. 

he says the same tired dirbble he's been spouting for over a year.

I know, but if bitcoin had been going down for the last year, we would be saying "its gonna go back up" too, no?
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