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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1795395 times)
thoughtfan
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January 27, 2013, 06:07:40 PM
 #8701

Speculation is the main factor driving the price, so bitcoin will always be overvalued.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's.

OK, now I see how that can make sense though I don't see how realistic nor how practical it is to take speculation about the future of Bitcoin out of the over/under-value assessment.  I think we can all agree demand for Bitcoin for the purposes of immediate purchases or immediate transfer overseas etc. is speculation-free.  How about those buying it as a store of value?  Those who believe there is no future to Bitcoin obviously will not buy for that purpose so are only those hoping it holds its value included as non-speculators or do you also include those who hope it may raise in value?  What about those who are buying for ideological reasons, because they believe in the principles underlying Bitcoin?  Do they need to be hoping it will succeed but not hoping for the value of their holding to increase to count?  However you get to your figure I guess we're talking about tiny numbers and yes, the available formulae for this kind of thing would then lead us to an extremely low valuation.

But I suspect the vast majority are buying for ideological, speculation (for-long-term-gain or short-term trading) or any combination of those, and that these dwarf the influence of 'pure' non-speculation demand on the price.  These I guess are mostly people who are enthused about Bitcoin not so much because of what it is doing today but because of its immense potential.  To me it just doesn't make sense to discard these considerations in establishing whether the Bitcoin at today's price is under or over-valued (excepting of course those who trade exclusively on the basis of technicals).

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January 27, 2013, 07:20:03 PM
 #8702

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January 27, 2013, 07:31:26 PM
 #8703

This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.

Don't be too sure.

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January 27, 2013, 07:37:42 PM
 #8704

This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.

Don't be too sure.

If this continues beyond $19, bears will be wary to dump in large amount lest they may fall into bear trap.
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January 27, 2013, 07:47:37 PM
 #8705

adam who constitutes a speculator?

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January 27, 2013, 07:52:56 PM
 #8706

This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.

Don't be too sure.

If this continues beyond $19, bears will be wary to dump in large amount lest they may fall into bear trap.

profit is hard to ignore. bulls will turn bear once they see 19$ simply cannot be broken.
just wait and see we are headed trowed 19 again...

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January 27, 2013, 07:55:20 PM
 #8707

adam who constitutes a speculator?

anyone buying in hope of one day taking profit ( by selling for USD or buying things with bitcoin directly )
if they buy and hold in hopes of making some kind of profit they are speculating

in other words everyone! when the ball drops we all get greedy, cuz we know, we are all in too deep  Wink

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January 27, 2013, 07:57:17 PM
 #8708

profit is hard to ignore. bulls will turn bear once they see 19$ simply cannot be broken.
just wait and see we are headed trowed 19 again...
"simply cannot" - and why would that be? If it's so simple, I'm sure you can explain what's magical about $19.  Wink


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January 27, 2013, 07:58:25 PM
 #8709

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January 27, 2013, 08:00:49 PM
 #8710

me thinks the upward pressure is stronger then we have previously suspected...

Yehhh, I did a panic buy and feel good about it. Cheesy

This time, I didn't panic sell and also feel good about it.  Cheesy
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adamstgBit
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January 27, 2013, 08:03:14 PM
 #8711

profit is hard to ignore. bulls will turn bear once they see 19$ simply cannot be broken.
just wait and see we are headed trowed 19 again...
"simply cannot" - and why would that be? If it's so simple, I'm sure you can explain what's magical about $19.  Wink

the first rule of acquisition greed is eternal.

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January 27, 2013, 08:04:53 PM
 #8712

the first rule of acquisition greed is eternal.
Greed is good.
Also, that has nothing to do with 19 being "simply" unbreakable.

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January 27, 2013, 08:05:17 PM
 #8713

Why $19 when you can simply move that "imaginary" wall to the moooooon?
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January 27, 2013, 08:05:45 PM
 #8714

Why $19 when you can simply move that "imaginary" wall to the moooooon?

19$ is the moon today.

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January 27, 2013, 08:06:46 PM
 #8715

adam who constitutes a speculator?

anyone buying in hope of one day taking profit ( by selling for USD or buying things with bitcoin directly )
if they buy and hold in hopes of making some kind of profit they are speculating

in other words everyone! when the ball drops we all get greedy, cuz we know, we are all in too deep  Wink

not me! i only have 1.25 btc or so! hah!

...dang it!
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January 27, 2013, 08:27:52 PM
 #8716

Why $19 when you can simply move that "imaginary" wall to the moooooon?

19$ is the moon today.

...and if when $19 is breached(again) you'll just mark $20 as the "new moon". When you're so oft wrong in a thread it leads to credibility fail. At least vow to eat a hat or something if/when $19 falls. Wink

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January 27, 2013, 08:33:44 PM
 #8717

Why $19 when you can simply move that "imaginary" wall to the moooooon?

19$ is the moon today.

...and if when $19 is breached(again) you'll just mark $20 as the "new moon". When you're so oft wrong in a thread it leads to credibility fail. At least vow to eat a hat or something if/when $19 falls. Wink

i will not eat a hat!

if price goes >= 19$ i will sell another 10BTC

 Grin

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January 27, 2013, 08:43:37 PM
 #8718

Why $19 when you can simply move that "imaginary" wall to the moooooon?

19$ is the moon today.

...and if when $19 is breached(again) you'll just mark $20 as the "new moon". When you're so oft wrong in a thread it leads to credibility fail. At least vow to eat a hat or something if/when $19 falls. Wink

i will not eat a hat!

if price goes >= 19$ i will sell another 10BTC

 Grin

Doubling down on your mistakes will not make them less obvious or costly. At least add something to your sig to indicate your consistently incorrect observations. Someone new is liable to come along and take you seriously.  Cheesy

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January 27, 2013, 08:50:11 PM
 #8719

Maybe we should divide it in three threads:

1) "I wish the price falls/rises, so I can buy/sell again"
2) "At the moment the following walls are present:"
3) "I believe the price will do x because of technical explanation y"

But this here.. A wild combination of all three, with the loudest and most babbling voices trying to manipulate the price the most, for silly amounts like 10btc..
Really, this thread is to "speculation" what /b/ is to the internet.

Some months ago I finally stopped daytrading, which was a very healthy decision for my wallet. Maybe another healthy decision is due now..

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January 27, 2013, 08:55:05 PM
 #8720

Fun times ahead.

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