A Theory on what pirateat40 is doing

[organofcorti]

June 27, 2012, 10:51:06 PM
Quote from: zyk on June 27, 2012, 10:46:44 PM

... twenty pages of gibberish removed ...

Zyk

Weird post is weird.

And yet it contains many of the same weirdnesses it did last time he posted a similar rant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg994981#msg994981

Can't tell if it's pro or con pirate. Is "Lip quivering" a good thing or a bad thing?

[zyk]

June 27, 2012, 10:51:06 PM
Quote from: zyk on June 27, 2012, 10:46:44 PM

... twenty pages of gibberish removed ...

Zyk

Weird post is weird.

Afraid to see the bigger implications of ponzi schemes ? even afraid to read between the lines?

Then you better trust your social security trust fund than BCST....

weird really

[humanitee]

Zyk's next post:

World is ponzi

[Vladimir]

zyk, is it "Mavrody's school of ponzi" stance these days? Ohh banks runs the biggest ponzi scheme on the planet. It makes it ok to for us to plunder pensioners.

[zyk]

June 27, 2012, 10:51:06 PM
Quote from: zyk on June 27, 2012, 10:46:44 PM

... twenty pages of gibberish removed ...

Zyk

Weird post is weird.

And yet it contains many of the same weirdnesses it did last time he posted a similar rant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg994981#msg994981

Can't tell if it's pro or con pirate. Is "Lip quivering" a good thing or a bad thing?

Lip quivering is what the chairman is doing when he spreads FUD....never seen on 60 minutes?

do you live in a world of right and wrong of good and evil?...need somebody to tell you what to think?  then really my posts ar from  outerspace:-)

[Bitcoin Oz]

Its a bad thing for one entity to control the majority of any market so I choose to sit this out. Only because it makes them a target imho.

[organofcorti]

June 27, 2012, 10:51:06 PM
Quote from: zyk on June 27, 2012, 10:46:44 PM

... twenty pages of gibberish removed ...

Zyk

Weird post is weird.

And yet it contains many of the same weirdnesses it did last time he posted a similar rant: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg994981#msg994981

Can't tell if it's pro or con pirate. Is "Lip quivering" a good thing or a bad thing?

Lip quivering is what the chairman is doing when he spreads FUD....never seen on 60 minutes?

do you live in a world of right and wrong of good and evil?...need somebody to tell you what to think?  then really my posts ar from  outerspace:-)

Hey, I wasn't judging. It's just that we don't get many Dadaists in the speculation thread.

[humanitee]

LOL 

Thanks for that.

[zyk]

June 27, 2012, 10:51:06 PM
Quote from: zyk on June 27, 2012, 10:46:44 PM

... twenty pages of gibberish removed ...

Zyk

Weird post is weird.

Afraid to see the bigger implications of ponzi schemes ? even afraid to read between the lines?

Afraid to read something that vaguely looks like English from afar
but feels like it was translated from Uyghur by a machine once you
actually try to read it.
 

sorry, its a  german mind process delivered in typ(o)ing and no fast food small talk:-)


yep, your muslim for oil killing Us dollar imperial ponzi could be threatened, if pirate would only think in inventing the greater common purpose of his ponzi !

the old kleptocracy and power stucture can be made obsolete because as " he who controls the money supply of a nation need not to care about any rules"

whom you entrust your savings and pensions has the power over the collective and could grow pensions initially by 7 % weekly by taking the haircut to the unfunded ones.

what i speculate then is, that pirate is (if still not bought out) to decide when and how he takes sides, having to choose between his lenders and his clients

we should better try to collectively cover his back intellectually, before becoming screwed from the outside.

Hope that somebody understands

Zyk

[mem]

hedging against risk is much cheaper than 7% a week.

Speaking of:

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default on or before July 31st, 2012.
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=476

Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

If the balance of that bet gets large enough I can see Pirate keeping the ponzi scheme alive (if they even are ponzi scheme) until after the bet date (and sinking a large chunk of btc on False).

[thezerg]

OP: As other posters have suggested, he would still need to acquire BTC on the market to pay it all back so offering 7% a week is a pretty high price for a little price stability.  So personally I think its a ponzi.  But to continue the OP's business model idea (which is interesting, regardless) what if his "exit" strategy is to pay everyone back (all at once) in fiat?  You could even put this in fine print in the loan contract "option to close out the loan at the Mt. Gox BTC/USD price + 2%" for example, and it would probably be mostly ignored as an unlikely CYA-type clause.  In this manner he could provide a large investor a significant amount of BTC (say at 8 USD) when a buy like that would drive the markets much higher.  So it would be sort of a ponzi in BTC backed by fiat.  Then just before going truly ponzi he could pay everybody back in fiat.  Of course, if all that fiat went straight back into BTC it would drive the price through the roof.  So the investor ends up accumulating a lot more BTC then would be possible on the open market.  So that's the purpose of the "loan" agreement (with a fiat clause in there it is actually a call option).

As long as the BTC price stays 7% below the baseline he can buy BTC back on the open market and keep going indefinitely.

The problem with this entire thing of course is the initial assumption: it presupposes the existence of some investor (or broker) who is too lazy to put buy orders in periodically.  You'd make a lot more $ that way... or more accurately if pirate IS that broker he's being paid too well for the effort involved.  And you'd expect to see dark buy orders on places like campBX.  And you could do it at a much lower interest rate.

[mp420]

Offering 7% interest PER ANNUM is extremely generous and, as such, more than slightly suspicious. When the interest is advertised per week it is a scam. Make no mistake.

[smoothie]

Compound interest is very simple guys.

Finally my endless posts today may be of value to some:

Rule of 72

If you have interest of N over some fixed period of time, divide 72 by N. This will give you amount of those fixed periods needed to double your money with compounding the interest.

For example, say, Pirate is paying 7.2% per week. 72/7.2 = 10. This means you should double your money every 10 weeks.

week 1  -  1000 BTC
week 10 -  2000 BTC
week 20 -  4000 BTC
week 30 -  8000 BTC
week 40 - 16000 BTC
week 50 - 32000 BTC

and more

week  60  -    64 000 BTC
week  70  -   128 000 BTC
week  80  -   256 000 BTC
week  90  -   512 000 BTC
week 100 - 1 024 000 BTC

week 110 -  2 048 000 BTC
week 120 -  4 096 000 BTC
week 130 -  8 192 000 BTC
week 140 - 16 384 000 BTC
week 150 - 32 768 000 BTC

Enjoy!

It takes only 3 years and you are the winner!

I thought that was funny in red. "the winner"

[Dalkore]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices at low rates for the time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

Seems plausible and sound being that Bitcoins have a fixed and diminishing amount available.   

[R-]

I'm still curious how, in your scenario, Pirate could pay back his lenders without driving the price up and defeating his purpose. No sarcasm here, I'm really wondering.

Hm. paying people with other people's money.

[apetersson]

I'm still curious how, in your scenario, Pirate could pay back his lenders without driving the price up and defeating his purpose. No sarcasm here, I'm really wondering.

• Buying on the exchanges, when the price dips. That would explain some of the recent unusual stability.
• Also, buying on the OTC market to save on fees.
• Maybe he is also contacting Bit-Pay directly, they have the need to aquire USD from BTC and are interested in a stable Bitcoin Price. They were able to sell their BFL orders suspicously fast without the price taking a hit.
• he uses excess Bitcoins to manipulate markets downwards through askwalls in "safe" regions like 4-sigma above current price levels. they seem to work psychologically.

so these are all tasks an everyday millionaire would not like to micro-manage. he hires staff for that.

[finkleshnorts]

This has been nagging me...

Why wouldn't he tell us what he does? How many of us know millionaires willing to invest in bitcoin, especially those who pay in cash? It's not like somebody can just snatch that market right up.

[Raoul Duke]

This has been nagging me...

Why wouldn't he tell us what he does? How many of us know millionaires willing to invest in bitcoin, especially those who pay in cash? It's not like somebody can just snatch that market right up.

Because they don't need to be millionaires.
You'll find that an early adopter having 100k BTC to spare and start doing the same he's doing isn't that farfetched.

[R-]

Because they don't need to be millionaires.
You'll find that an early adopter having 100k BTC to spare and start doing the same he's doing isn't that farfetched.

Staff should have a neutral position on the subject. This board sends the wrong message at times. Of course they are entitled to their opinion, but staff represent the board, for the better or the worse.

[finkleshnorts]

This has been nagging me...

Why wouldn't he tell us what he does? How many of us know millionaires willing to invest in bitcoin, especially those who pay in cash? It's not like somebody can just snatch that market right up.

Because they don't need to be millionaires.
You'll find that an early adopter having 100k BTC to spare and start doing the same he's doing isn't that farfetched.

I don't understand what you are saying here, forgive me