BFL ASIC is bogus

[Fiyasko]

just looking at the network hashrate... something goofy is going on,.  how do we go from 15000 to 22,000 within 24 hour period ?  I have never seen such large swings until lately. 

I thought the "network speed" was based off the rate at which blocks were being found, and estimating it from there. If everyone happened to have a 24 hour streak of bad luck, then the graph would dip. If everyone had really good luck tho, then the graph would swing up. Thats why I like the 3day average.

Uhmmm, Im pretty sure that luck is directly realated to the number of blocks being solved in relevance to how many your pool is solving..
The only way what you saying could happen (i think) Is that if a Solominer Nailed >50% of the blocks one day, And then hit close to none the next..

[1714112338]

1714112338

[1714112338]

1714112338

[molecular]

just looking at the network hashrate... something goofy is going on,.  how do we go from 15000 to 22,000 within 24 hour period ?  I have never seen such large swings until lately. 

goofy?

hashrate follows exchange rate (with a noisy lag of 1-4 weeks), cost for running mining equipment has been falling => everything normal. I'm not saying BFL is not "testing their new product", though. That also would not be goofy.

[Chrstian]

Don't you guys remember that the Singles were claimed to contain custom hardware?

It will either turn out to be an exaggerated claim or even a scam.  
inb4 BFL fanboy shitstorm.


anyway just posting that so I can bump it next year with "I told you so."

My point being: BFL the way it is presented to us certainly hasn't got the resources and funds to develop custom chips.

well i certainly hope its an exaggerated claim/scam  i just purchased 1500 BTC worth of mining hardware (hoping its not true) if it is indeed true im going to say bye bye to all my profits

[runeks]

Don't you guys remember that the Singles were claimed to contain custom hardware?

It will either turn out to be an exaggerated claim or even a scam.  
inb4 BFL fanboy shitstorm.


anyway just posting that so I can bump it next year with "I told you so."

My point being: BFL the way it is presented to us certainly hasn't got the resources and funds to develop custom chips.

well i certainly hope its an exaggerated claim/scam  i just purchased 1500 BTC worth of mining hardware (hoping its not true) if it is indeed true im going to say bye bye to all my profits

You might want to consider than, besides BFL, an additional three companies are allegedly developing ASIC Bitcoin miners:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.300#msg1157524
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=108375.0;all
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91173.0;all

[mrb]

My point being: BFL the way it is presented to us certainly hasn't got the resources and funds to develop custom chips.

They do now.  

By custom chips I mean Full Custom ASICs, that is what they are claiming they are making. That costs about 10M USD for starters.
There might be some way to get it cheaper if you have the ties but unless whoever behind BFL is some engineering wizard he doesn't even have the means to develop it.

If you know how the process of semiconductor manufacturing actually works the notation of a BFL custom ASIC is ridiculous.
To get an idea what kind of people pulled this thing off in the past... (Ninja Style ASIC development using selfwritten software), he did it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_H._Moore

If you truly think that BFL cannot achieve, oh, say, 350 Mhash/Joule, then you can easily make 50 BTC by betting as little as 0.1 BTC (since people have yet to bet against my entry on betsofbitco.in). See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109357.0

[runeks]

My point being: BFL the way it is presented to us certainly hasn't got the resources and funds to develop custom chips.

They do now.  

By custom chips I mean Full Custom ASICs, that is what they are claiming they are making. That costs about 10M USD for starters.
There might be some way to get it cheaper if you have the ties but unless whoever behind BFL is some engineering wizard he doesn't even have the means to develop it.

If you know how the process of semiconductor manufacturing actually works the notation of a BFL custom ASIC is ridiculous.
To get an idea what kind of people pulled this thing off in the past... (Ninja Style ASIC development using selfwritten software), he did it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_H._Moore

If you truly think that BFL cannot achieve, oh, say, 350 Mhash/Joule, then you can easily make 50 BTC by betting as little as 0.1 BTC (since people have yet to bet against my entry on betsofbitco.in). See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109357.0

If you will guarantee me 500:1 odds on this bet, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, betsofbitcoin doesn't guarantee odds: someone could come in after me and place a bet and ruin my odds. I don't make bets for which I don't know the odds.

[mrb]

If you require 500:1 odds to bet, this means you think 350 Mhash/J may be doable.
Therefore you are not the person I want to bet against. I want to bet against those who claim 350 Mhash/J is plainly impossible

[Inaba]

Would you be willing to escrow a bet amount at 500:1 odds?  If so, how much are you willing to risk?

[Sitarow]

Would you be willing to escrow a bet amount at 500:1 odds?  If so, how much are you willing to risk?

Inaba it's an unfair bet

[grue]

I have to admit, I've been a chip fabrication nut for 30 years and I just can't figure out how the hell they can build this within the scope of power they claim. They have (again in my opinion) zero chance at getting access to 45nm or lower wafer starts with this small a market, so that leaves the larger processes only. Given that, the power doesn't add up. Even at 45 I'm thinking the power claims wouldn't add up.

But anyhow, it's put huge uncertainty in the mining market and may have been partially responsible for keeping difficulty down as people eschew the purchases of new hardware either GPU or other.

Guess we'll see.

Anyone taking real bets on this? I'll take a piece of the triumvirate .. that they miss POWER, HASH and DELIVERY DATE claims as they are now.

how much would you have to pay for global foundries to make you a 45 nm wafer?

[runeks]

Would you be willing to escrow a bet amount at 500:1 odds?  If so, how much are you willing to risk?

I'm willing to bet 2 BTC on this, if you are also willing to escrow your 1000 BTC with a party we both trust.

[MrTeal]

I might be interested in a bet based on your claimed power specs Inaba, depending on the odds. 1TH/s from 1250W or less at the wall for the SC Minirig. Would you take a bet like that at 100:1 odds?

[Inaba]

Here's the thing, I have no problem taking the odds from either of you... what I do have a problem with is tying up my BTC for so little return for weeks at a time.  I mean, tying up $1200 to win $12 for a few weeks is just not lucrative for me.  I mean, it's a guaranteed win for me, but the lost revenue of not having access to that money does not make it desirable for me.

[MrTeal]

Here's the thing, I have no problem taking the odds from either of you... what I do have a problem with is tying up my BTC for so little return for weeks at a time.  I mean, tying up $1200 to win $12 for a few weeks is just not lucrative for me.  I mean, it's a guaranteed win for me, but the lost revenue of not having access to that money does not make it desirable for me.

Fair enough.

[runeks]

Here's the thing, I have no problem taking the odds from either of you... what I do have a problem with is tying up my BTC for so little return for weeks at a time.  I mean, tying up $1200 to win $12 for a few weeks is just not lucrative for me.  I mean, it's a guaranteed win for me, but the lost revenue of not having access to that money does not make it desirable for me.

Are you willing to do it without escrow then? Or are you afraid I'll run away with the 2 BTC in case I lose?

[mufa23]

[Inaba]

Sure I can do it without escrow, but please define the bet specifically before I commit.

[runeks]

[...]
If you truly think that BFL cannot achieve, oh, say, 350 Mhash/Joule, then you can easily make 50 BTC by betting as little as 0.1 BTC (since people have yet to bet against my entry on betsofbitco.in). See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109357.0

If you will guarantee me 500:1 odds on this bet, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, betsofbitcoin doesn't guarantee odds: someone could come in after me and place a bet and ruin my odds. I don't make bets for which I don't know the odds.

Would you be willing to escrow a bet amount at 500:1 odds?  If so, how much are you willing to risk?

Would you be willing to escrow a bet amount at 500:1 odds?  If so, how much are you willing to risk?

I'm willing to bet 2 BTC on this, if you are also willing to escrow your 1000 BTC with a party we both trust.

Here's the thing, I have no problem taking the odds from either of you... what I do have a problem with is tying up my BTC for so little return for weeks at a time.  I mean, tying up $1200 to win $12 for a few weeks is just not lucrative for me.  I mean, it's a guaranteed win for me, but the lost revenue of not having access to that money does not make it desirable for me.

Sure I can do it without escrow, but please define the bet specifically before I commit.

At 500:1 odds I, runeks, bet 2 BTC that the first line of ASIC-chips shipped by Butterfly Labs (ie. not any later series/revision) in their 'SC' line of products will have an efficiency of less than 350 Mhash/Joule. This figure pertains only to the chip itself, so any inefficiency in the power supply will allow for a higher power usage of the device in which the chip resides. So, power supply inefficiencies are excluded, but other components on the board that are required for the device to work will be included in the power efficiency measurement, as the power efficiency figure is irrelevant if the device - under ideal conditions - can't operate at that efficiency anyway.

At the odds of 500:1 that are in effect for this bet I will win 1000 BTC if I am correct (power efficiency is less 350 Mhash/Joule), and lose 2 BTC if I am incorrect (power efficiency is greater than or equal to 350 Mhash/Joule).

Power efficiency shall be measured over a 24 hour period.

Inaba, if you agree then quote this post and say you agree, or suggest a revision of the terms if you think I'm missing something or being unfair.

[MrTeal]

You might want to add a condition that the efficiency has to be measured at the advertised hashing rate, otherwise a downclocked and undervolted bitstream could satisfy that bet.

[runeks]

I thought about that, but I wasn't sure how to state it without the bet becoming invalid if BFL doesn't meet their projected performance claims. I don't care about their performance claims, only about them shipping a product that does 350 Mhash/Joule. I feel that it's enough to say that the bet concerns the "first line of ASIC-chips shipped by Butterfly Labs" ie. not some custom product, but the actual, shipped product. I doubt they are willing to alter their whole line of products just so Inaba can win his bet. Inaba, do you have any thoughts on this?