100 bitcoins. Will I be a millionaire by 2020?

[foxbitcoin]

The price of BTC is whatever people are willing to pay for it.. and as the applications of BTC are increasing rather than decreasing and number of coins mined daily are also decreasing, it's likely that it will remain here and high priced. hold for at least 5 years

[1714960749]

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[hangar18]

It would be great if we knew the future, at least sometimes, but we don't so we can't know for sure. We can only predict.

[HarHarHar9965]

I think it will be around 3000$ only, not as much as 10,000$. It needs hype throughout 10 years to slide up to 10k per btc. If however, the bitcoin does slide to TEN THOUSAND DOLLARS, I would be the happiest person and LIVE LIKE A BOSS

[centauribit]

I think we may have to wait at least a few more months for the infrastructure to grow a new price foundation before we get any serious growth in prices again.

[jubalix]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

[Nami]

So even a person like me who has 5 btc, can go from free $5,000 profit.. but 2020 is long time to wait.

$1k value is what I hope for as well, but I dont see this anytime soon since it could be similar to dropping back in the lower or mid $150ish? if we dont resolve that 1mb problem.

[SmoothCurves]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

[Amph]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

that's in theory if everything go well, but we know that something always go wrong, i would remove one zero from that amount, if we keep struggle to even touch 300, it is a bit too fanciful to think about numbers with 5 zeroes

the 2016 halving will tell has how much of an impact one halving can really have on the price, from there it will be possible to estimate better the price for the next halving(2020)

[Bagatell]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

that's in theory if everything go well, but we know that something always go wrong, i would remove one zero from that amount, if we keep struggle to even touch 300, it is a bit too fanciful to think about numbers with 5 zeroes

the 2016 halving will tell has how much of an impact one halving can really have on the price, from there it will be possible to estimate better the price for the next halving(2020)

Whoosh!

[futureofbitcoin]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

that's in theory if everything go well, but we know that something always go wrong, i would remove one zero from that amount, if we keep struggle to even touch 300, it is a bit too fanciful to think about numbers with 5 zeroes

the 2016 halving will tell has how much of an impact one halving can really have on the price, from there it will be possible to estimate better the price for the next halving(2020)

Please, please, please, please, please, learn that there are tens of other factors that are much more important than the halving.

Just because something sounds too good to be true doesn't mean it won't happen. If the fundamentals are there, who knows. We could potentially see 6-digit bitcoins. But when that happens, if it ever does, it will be because of huge increase in demand through killer apps and general acceptance by the world. It will NOT be because of mining rewards being reduced.

[Amph]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

that's in theory if everything go well, but we know that something always go wrong, i would remove one zero from that amount, if we keep struggle to even touch 300, it is a bit too fanciful to think about numbers with 5 zeroes

the 2016 halving will tell has how much of an impact one halving can really have on the price, from there it will be possible to estimate better the price for the next halving(2020)

Please, please, please, please, please, learn that there are tens of other factors that are much more important than the halving.

Just because something sounds too good to be true doesn't mean it won't happen. If the fundamentals are there, who knows. We could potentially see 6-digit bitcoins. But when that happens, if it ever does, it will be because of huge increase in demand through killer apps and general acceptance by the world. It will NOT be because of mining rewards being reduced.

i'm always talking about the halving, because it is the only thing concrete, that could have an impact about the price, everything else is just pure guessing and rubbish predictions, instead we know that the halving is something tangible that will happen for sure

what if the killer app is the halving it self? because right now this killer app is just another random guessing....

[Bagatell]

i'm always talking about the halving, because it is the only thing concrete, that could have an impact about the price, everything else is just pure guessing and rubbish predictions, instead we know that the halving is something tangible that will happen for sure

What do you expect in the Speculation forum?

[futureofbitcoin]

I don't think the killer app is the halving itself.

Think from the perspective of someone who isn't into bitcoin yet. Why would they join bitcoin because the mining rewards halved? There's no benefit to them, so they won't join. Halving won't increase demand at all. What it does is increase the stress to miners, because suddenly their rewards are halved.

Okay, maybe not "halved". Maybe the price will go up a little bit because of the halving, so they'll earn 60% of what they originally earned. That's still detrimental to any business. Plus it's possible the halving will actually DECREASE the price, because so many people like yourself is expecting that the price will increase with the halving, if it doesn't, maybe some of these people will be disappointed and start dumping.

Either way, I can't see the halving as an event that will help catapult bitcoin to the moon. In fact, I don't even think it's necessarily a good for bitcoin at this point in time.

Sure, mining rewards is the only thing that's "certain" right now. But the total affect it has on the economy is tiny.

Focusing only on mining rewards is like a guy only focusing on his own wage thinking it's representative of the world's gdp; when he gets a raise, he thinks the world gdp is going way up, and when he gets fired, he thinks the world is going through another economic depression. Then you tell him, "well, you're not the only thing that makes up the world economy", and his rebuttal is "well I don't know about how much other people earn, I only know how much I earn myself so  that's the only thing that's concrete".

It's just a bad argument.

[Herbert2020]

it took 4 years or so to get to 1K, and dropped back....I think we could see 10K in 5 more years, but perhaps it will drop back to 1000 ~ 2000 as the new 200~300

You're thinking linearly while populations and technology is adopted exponentially. Instead of counting to 1K you need to measure the percentage move of $2 -> $1200. That's over 500x. To get an estimate of the prices we'll see in 5 years take the lowest price of the year - $160 or so - and multiply by 500. $80,000+

that's in theory if everything go well, but we know that something always go wrong, i would remove one zero from that amount, if we keep struggle to even touch 300, it is a bit too fanciful to think about numbers with 5 zeroes

the 2016 halving will tell has how much of an impact one halving can really have on the price, from there it will be possible to estimate better the price for the next halving(2020)

Please, please, please, please, please, learn that there are tens of other factors that are much more important than the halving.

Just because something sounds too good to be true doesn't mean it won't happen. If the fundamentals are there, who knows. We could potentially see 6-digit bitcoins. But when that happens, if it ever does, it will be because of huge increase in demand through killer apps and general acceptance by the world. It will NOT be because of mining rewards being reduced.

yeah there are a lot of other factors that affect the market but a handful of them are just so impactfull that can have a great effect on the price. and halving is one of those.

another thing is the Greece news, you can see that in a couple of days that single news had a great impact on the market and pushed the price up to $268

[Amph]

i'm always talking about the halving, because it is the only thing concrete, that could have an impact about the price, everything else is just pure guessing and rubbish predictions, instead we know that the halving is something tangible that will happen for sure

What do you expect in the Speculation forum?

well most of them are baseless prediction, i respect those with good TA background that try to determinate the price based on the chart's history,
 
i guess blind predictions can be ok for short term, but any long term prediction must be done with solid bases that we know that they will affect the price, like the halving or a good investments, like the one of 9M per month https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1105725.0

[wlefever]

So even a person like me who has 5 btc, can go from free $5,000 profit.. but 2020 is long time to wait.

$1k value is what I hope for as well, but I dont see this anytime soon since it could be similar to dropping back in the lower or mid $150ish? if we dont resolve that 1mb problem.

Long time to wait? I don't know about you, but the last 5 years have flown by for me, and I can only assume the next 5 will be just as fast.  If BTC is still around in 5 years (which I believe it will be) we are going to be astounded by the growth in its applications, and the amount of people using it.  Exciting times!

[jenifer0012]

10k$ is too much i guess. the value should be around 5k in 5 years. though it's very much possible that you might end up having nothing in 5 years. keep praying for the better!

[skeletonbit]

I believe
by 2020 anyone holding 100 Bitcoin should have a guaranteed retirement.

[futureofbitcoin]

i'm always talking about the halving, because it is the only thing concrete, that could have an impact about the price, everything else is just pure guessing and rubbish predictions, instead we know that the halving is something tangible that will happen for sure

What do you expect in the Speculation forum?

well most of them are baseless prediction, i respect those with good TA background that try to determinate the price based on the chart's history,
 
i guess blind predictions can be ok for short term, but any long term prediction must be done with solid bases that we know that they will affect the price, like the halving or a good investments, like the one of 9M per month https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1105725.0

If you are only going to take into account things that are completely knowable, then I advise you, quit bitcoin now. The risk is absolutely not worth it. If you don't take into account the slight possibility that there will be killer apps, and only look at how bitcoin is today, then I guarantee you, bitcoin will NEVER reach mainstream, and bitcoin will die a horrible death when miner rewards become insignificant and the system becomes easy to attack. Most people in the world already heard of bitcoin, they're not going to use it as it currently is, period.

Unless you're considering the possibility that bitcoin will be GREATLY improved, and there will be killer apps on top of bitcoin, just stop wasting your time on this. Bitcoin as it currently is cannot even come close to comparing against banks and visa and mastercard.

It's funny because you got it completely wrong. TA is only good for short term, when there are no new developments, if it's any good at all. No matter how good you are at TA, you cannot account for events in the long term that will affect the market. The longer term you're looking, the higher chance that some event will happen, whether it helps the price or harms the price. The chances will tend to 100% as the time gets longer. So to say that TA works for longer term while predictions based on reality is "baseless" is just laughable. TA is okay for day traders, that's why they use it for trading. For longer term holders, you need to take into account the potential of the investment, the developments that will probably happen in 5-10 years, or even longer, rather than to simply look at the current situation.

@the other guy: How do you know that the halving is one of the variables that have a significant influence over bitcoin's price? Do you have stats to back it up? Same thing with Greece. Most of the reputable people like Fred Wilson and Andreas don't think the current Greece situation has much affect on the price of bitcoins (It might in the future, but not yet). How can you prove that the little pump is correlated to Greece?

I don't think either event has nearly as big an impact as people are led to believe.

[mayflor2]

You'll be a millionaire by 2025-2030 I guess. By 2020 the price of BTC wouldn't be more than 5k$ imo. Hold on have some patience. 10 more years and bam you're a millionaire!