ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Mausini]

I'm quoting the following from a recent reddit post (link):

ASIC miner share price makes no sense. it's a bubble and it's not gonna be worth it. right now it's like 70mh per share for 2.4 BTC! you might as well spend the money on buying mining hardware. the yearly return is 38%, yea it's good compare with the stock market but let's look at the fundamentals. the market cap of asicminer is overvalued. for the same amount of money i.e. total issued shares x share price you can build another asic mining company 400,000 * 2.4 * 120 = 115,200,000 USD. This makes no sense, with this amount of money you can R&D ASICs and have hash rates that's many times over the current network hashrates. No, they are not going to maintain this amount of hashpower once all other asics come online. sooner or later other asics will be competing. there is asicminer, avalon, bitfury, diy avalon, kncminer, bfl, diy bfl, BTC garden, and many other private projects. In a few month there will be hundreds of THs dumping to the network and asicminer shares will be worth nothing. If a year from now you can sell the shares for the same price good for you, but most likely you won't be, and the dividend will not be enough to cover your loss. Think about it: if they can IPO at 0.1 BTC per share for 400,000 shares, why can't you build a similar company for 0.3 BTC * 400,000*50 (where 0.3 and 50 is the over-estimated BTC price, it IPO'd last year)

I think it's useful to quote it here since people coming to this thread in the future may have similar thoughts. (I am an AM share holder.)

Aaaaand again someone found the holy grail after so much time so many people have been looking for it It's funny...

It seems a lot of people are missing the fact that ASICMINER is not a mining bond with some mh/s per share. Instead, ASICMINER is a company that scales. To make this clear, an ASICMINER share is NOT an indirect purchase of some mining equipment in a data centre. An ASICMINER share is your bet on highly skilled people (friedcat and team) with a fantastic track record to do anything in their power to earn you bitcoins with mining and hardware sales. That's what makes ASICMINER worth "400,000 * 2.4 * 120 = 115,200,000 USD" and even if its a big number, it's absolulutely justified. Dividends do not lie.

[Betatester]

If they manage to keep 20% of the network hash rate, which I am sure they will, there will always be a dividend of 0.015 per share. That makes annual return of 30%. That is pretty damn good.
Shares are cheap now. They are worth more than 3 BTC.

[philipma1957]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

[runeks]

Any predictions for tomorrow's dividend?

We've got around 0.013 BTC per share from solo mining alone:



Add to that around 0.005 BTC per share from 7 Thash/s of mining on BTC Guild, and that adds up to around 0.018 BTC per share.

It's my impression that hardware sales have been going fairly well, so my guess would be that we can expect at least 0.025 BTC per share. My guess would be closer to 0.030 BTC per share. But we shall see!

[lophie]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

Are you talking about the same BFL? I am cranking all my hypothetically delivered BFL mining rigs but they are not producing any coins!

[joele]

Those mentioned miners probably have shares in Asicminer

[bitfair]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

Have fun on your vacation, I'm sure BFL will still be working on their backlog when you return!

It was obvious from the start that there would be competitors. I think everybody is surprised so far at the inability of the competitors to deliver, but I expect that competition is already priced into the shares at this point.

[Note: highlighted the important part in your quote - with BFL it's always two weeks until they have any impact!]

[joele]

If you check blockchain solo mining of AM, it's getting around 2 blocks per hour
blocks 2/hour = 48/day = 336/week
or 8,400 BTC/week

not including btcguild shares and hardware sales

https://blockchain.info/blocks/ASICMiner

[philipma1957]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

Are you talking about the same BFL? I am cranking all my hypothetically delivered BFL mining rigs but they are not producing any coins!

  If only you were correct  their jallys are shipping and more quickly then anyone that is only AM would like.  So this puts a lot of strain on anyone with a shitload of AM stock.  I am a small guy under 500 coins earned since August of last year most sold at under 30 USD.  The facts are BFL has shipped a  decent amount of jallys in the last 10 days.   IF they do this for 10 more days  the price of AM has to tumble a lot.  Even at the new high price of 3.2 coins for the hi end 7gh model or the low model at 2.5 coins for 5gh AM is just not in the same league.


 https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/    

the latest blog has orders of jallys up to July 3rd that is more then 120 jallys.

1 jally is about 16 AM usb sticks.

 BFL price 2.5 BTC   AM price 32BTC  both = 5Gh hash.  

When BFL had a handful of orders shipped if was funny Well it is not a handful any more.  

 I bailed on my AM if I am correct I will get it at a much lower price in a few weeks.  If wrong I still made 30 coins profit. Since the sticks came out I always said there are overpriced.  Well how long before the sticks will need to go to .5 coins to sell. Not very long.  

This is not FUD just look at the shipping blog for bfl since may 23rd. 1 month from today and BFL may have 2000 to 3000 jallys shipped this will really kill usb stick sales. 

Of course maybe I am wrong and bfl will slow the jallys back down to a trickle.  I may be all about the FUD.

The sky is not falling yada yada yada.

[Betatester]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

AM could easily sell 5 GH for 1 Coin and still make a profit.
This thread is about securities, not mining hardware.

[philipma1957]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

AM could easily sell 5 GH for 1 Coin and still make a profit.
This thread is about securities, not mining hardware.

  Then they need to drop the price and get ahead of the curve.  Just remember they had to lower the stick sale from 300 to 50 to sell them. Selling hardware and mining with hardware is how this company grew. Well the hardware was being produced sold and used better then anyone else in the game. We all laughed at BFL can't even make a jally work not shipping ha ha ha.

 Myself included.

 All I am saying is they (BFL) are ramping up the shipping and no one matches the price for a jally.  How many sticks have sold out of the 10000 batch? 4000 at 2btc good. How many will sell at 2btc once people realize that the jallys are really shipping?

[ThickAsThieves]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

Are you talking about the same BFL? I am cranking all my hypothetically delivered BFL mining rigs but they are not producing any coins!

  If only you were correct  their jallys are shipping and more quickly then anyone that is only AM would like.  So this puts a lot of strain on anyone with a shitload of AM stock.  I am a small guy under 500 coins earned since August of last year most sold at under 30 USD.  The facts are BFL has shipped a  decent amount of jallys in the last 10 days.   IF they do this for 10 more days  the price of AM has to tumble a lot.  Even at the new high price of 3.2 coins for the hi end 7gh model or the low model at 2.5 coins for 5gh AM is just not in the same league.


 https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/    

the latest blog has orders of jallys up to July 3rd that is more then 120 jallys.

1 jally is about 16 AM usb sticks.

 BFL price 2.5 BTC   AM price 32BTC  both = 5Gh hash.  

When BFL had a handful of orders shipped if was funny Well it is not a handful any more.  

 I bailed on my AM if I am correct I will get it at a much lower price in a few weeks.  If wrong I still made 30 coins profit. Since the sticks came out I always said there are overpriced.  Well how long before the sticks will need to go to .5 coins to sell. Not very long.  

This is not FUD just look at the shipping blog for bfl since may 23rd. 1 month from today and BFL may have 2000 to 3000 jallys shipped this will really kill usb stick sales. 

Of course maybe I am wrong and bfl will slow the jallys back down to a trickle.  I may be all about the FUD.

The sky is not falling yada yada yada.

You are missing a big part of the puzzle. Can you order from BFL and get your hardware in a few days? No. You have to wait until alllllll these old orders get filled. None of these old orders compete with AM.

[Mausini]

I am done sold all my shares.  Thanks for a fun 3 months and 30 coins of profit. Good luck selling sticks at 2 coins a piece.

BFL has now shipped more then 100 jallys .   More shipping today.

 hmm 2 coins = 333MH hash vs 2.5 coins = 5GH hash  read the hand writing.  Take your profits and go on vacation from the btc world. In two weeks the word will be out that bfl has shipped 500 to 1000 working jallys. current price of 2.5 BTC will get you 5Gh of hash.

AM could easily sell 5 GH for 1 Coin and still make a profit.
This thread is about securities, not mining hardware.

  Then they need to drop the price and get ahead of the curve.  Just remember they had to lower the stick sale from 300 to 50 to sell them. Selling hardware and mining with hardware is how this company grew. Well the hardware was being produced sold and used better then anyone else in the game. We all laughed at BFL can't even make a jally work not shipping ha ha ha.

 Myself included.

 All I am saying is they (BFL) are ramping up the shipping and no one matches the price for a jally.  How many sticks have sold out of the 10000 batch? 4000 at 2btc good. How many will sell at 2btc once people realize that the jallys are really shipping?

bla bla "in two weeks" bla bla

[Pierre]

C'mon weekly dividend update

[bobboooiie]

BFL must be doing some black magic or something, how on earth people still give them so much credit? Just because they shipped few jallapenos doesnt mean they have them all coming in steady pace now. They might just be trying to push some out to cash on their chips sales

[John (John K.)]

*John is waiting for the divs with popcorn on hand*

[bitfair]

*John is waiting for the divs with popcorn on hand*

Popcorn instead of chips?

[ThickAsThieves]

*John is waiting for the divs with popcorn on hand*

Popcorn instead of chips?

Maybe he wants to drop some el-beez.

[runeks]

 Then they need to drop the price and get ahead of the curve.  Just remember they had to lower the stick sale from 300 to 50 to sell them. Selling hardware and mining with hardware is how this company grew. Well the hardware was being produced sold and used better then anyone else in the game. We all laughed at BFL can't even make a jally work not shipping ha ha ha.

Why on earth would they do that?

Continue selling Blades at 50 BTC and USB sticks at 2 BTC as long as the market wants to pay that.

When competitors undercut those prices for immediate delivery, then should the prices be lowered.

If you check blockchain solo mining of AM, it's getting around 2 blocks per hour
blocks 2/hour = 48/day = 336/week
or 8,400 BTC/week

not including btcguild shares and hardware sales

https://blockchain.info/blocks/ASICMiner

2 blocks per hour would mean they are solo mining with 29 Thash/s at current difficulty.

This does not seem to be the case:



And your 8,400 BTC per week figure for solo mining is not supported either. And this we know for a fact. So far ASICMiner has mined around 5,200 BTC since the last dividend payment a week ago:

[KarmaShark]

ASICMINER shareholders wake up today with a perma-grin on their face the span of the grand canyon. It's DIV time Boys and Girls  .