ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Bitcycle]

This. One guy sold off like 2000 at least last week. Thousands were liquidated by various people.

He's saying that he wants to try selling them without waiting for a buy wall. If he does that, the price would plummet under 1.0 BTC on BTC-TC because there are not enough bids and he thinks the market could panic for more than some hours.
Of course it is an insane move, but that's the point.

Sure, but immediately after that the price would go right back up.

He could hand out 500 shares for nothing right here.  Wouldn't drive the price down to zero.

[ex-trader]

If they manage to keep 20% of the network hash rate, which I am sure they will, there will always be a dividend of 0.015 per share. That makes annual return of 30%. That is pretty damn good.

You cannot use yield or p/e ratios in the normal way on this stock. The blockchain reward will halve income in 3 years, then again in 4 years etc etc.

The short-term return and value of ASICMiner is NOT the same as a proper long-term valuation.

The key to long-term value is in transaction fees which right now are tiny and represent about 1% of the reward in BTC (as I understand it and am happy to be corrected).

You would not value Coke in the same way as normal if you knew it was being forced to halve it's prices every 4 years!

[philipma1957]

PhillipMa: I'm sure you understand the difference between purchasing a company's products (BFL) and investing in the shares of a company (Asicminer).

yes of course I do which is why I sold my AM-pt shares off yesterday. I feel that I am ahead of the curve of a steep price drop.

To a 1.5BTC a share rather then a 2.5btc a share.   plus if  dividend runs at .02 a share it would take 50 weeks to make up for the drop.  I was also in the position of making  a profit with the sale.  

What is the downside  of my selling all my stock;   BFL ships under 500 jally units  and AM shares do well.  In this case I suffer less profit . The 30 coin profit would be bigger then the 30 I made.   .8 BTC sold at 2.4 was 1.6 a share 18 shares and some dividends I netted about 30 coins profit.


If I held and BFL ships lots more units at 2.5BTC per 5GH  AM stock will drop and my guaranteed profit of 30 coins which I took today and yesterday could drop to a loss.  The stock could drop to under the .8 I paid.

 HEY anyone can be wrong,  but BFL is really shipping units  1 Jally = 16 usb sticks .  At least 100 jallys are delivered that is at least 1600 usb sticks .  

BFL price for 5GH = 2.5 btc  

AM price for 5Gh = 32 btc  

 I will take my sure profit and be happy until AM makes an adjustment.
Well more then 1 adjustment 3 adjustments usb stick price drops blade price drops and hash rate rises a lot.

 Hey I rather be made a fool and have AM come up with a brilliant counter move or 2 or 3.

 But I am guessing a big price drop when people realize that the laughing stock called BFL is really shipping and the prices are far lower then AM.

[irritant]

PhillipMa: I'm sure you understand the difference between purchasing a company's products (BFL) and investing in the shares of a company (Asicminer).

yes of course I do which is why I sold my AM-pt shares off yesterday. I feel that I am ahead of the curve of a steep price drop.

To a 1.5BTC a share rather then a 2.5btc a share.   plus if  dividend runs at .02 a share it would take 50 weeks to make up for the drop.  I was also in the position of making  a profit with the sale.  

What is the downside  of my selling  BFL ships under 500 units and AM shares do well.  IN this case I suffer less profit.

If I held and BFL ships lots more units at 2.5BTC per 5GH  AM stock will drop and my guaranteed profit of 30 coins which I took today and yesterday could drop to a loss. HEY anyone can be wrong but BFL is really shipping units  1 Jally = 16 usb sticks .  At least 100 jallys are delivered that is at least 1600 usb sticks .  

BFL price for 5GH = 2.5 btc  

AM price for 5Gh = 32 btc  

 I will take my sure profit and be happy until AM makes an adjustment.  Hey I rather be made a fool and have AM come up with a brilliant counter move.

you took the most negative numbers, if you calculate with blades, 50 BTC/10 Gh  it is AM price for 5Gh = 25 btc, the usb miner sticks are the most expensive ghash/$  , and with AM shares you buy part of the expanding company, and with mining hardware you have to keep expanding yourself , you know the income from it will decrease

[philipma1957]

PhillipMa: I'm sure you understand the difference between purchasing a company's products (BFL) and investing in the shares of a company (Asicminer).

yes of course I do which is why I sold my AM-pt shares off yesterday. I feel that I am ahead of the curve of a steep price drop.

To a 1.5BTC a share rather then a 2.5btc a share.   plus if  dividend runs at .02 a share it would take 50 weeks to make up for the drop.  I was also in the position of making  a profit with the sale.  

What is the downside  of my selling  BFL ships under 500 units and AM shares do well.  IN this case I suffer less profit.

If I held and BFL ships lots more units at 2.5BTC per 5GH  AM stock will drop and my guaranteed profit of 30 coins which I took today and yesterday could drop to a loss. HEY anyone can be wrong but BFL is really shipping units  1 Jally = 16 usb sticks .  At least 100 jallys are delivered that is at least 1600 usb sticks .  

BFL price for 5GH = 2.5 btc  

AM price for 5Gh = 32 btc  

 I will take my sure profit and be happy until AM makes an adjustment.  Hey I rather be made a fool and have AM come up with a brilliant counter move.

you took the most negative numbers, if you calculate with blades, 50 BTC/10 Gh  it is AM price for 5Gh = 25 btc, the usb miner sticks are the most expensive ghash/$  , and with AM shares you buy part of the expanding company, and with mining hardware you have to keep expanding yourself , you know the income from it will decrease

 yes of course but the problem is BFL is more then 10X lower in price and they are really shipping the jallys.


 even if I use the blade price of 50BTC for 10Gh the jally price is  5 or  6 BTC for 10GH


 I rather be ahead of the curve and pull profit now.   

I think AM and everyone else  still believes BFL is BS .  Well fine if they are BS not fine if they are really going to ship the jallys in bulk AM needs to adjust now. 

2 jallys on may 21 now 102 jallys on june 4th means watch out and make a move do not walk around with a pair of blindfolds and earplugs.

[bitfair]

BFL price for 5GH = 2.5 btc  

AM price for 5Gh = 32 btc  

In this case, comparing the sales prices of the offerings is misleading. AM can sell at high prices at the moment because they are delivering within days rather than months, and some people are happy to pay a premium for that, which is why AM can command a higher price.

In order to establish who is more competitive of BFL or ASICMINER, it would make more sense to look at the production costs, since this forms a lower limit to the price - the price to which the units can drop when competition gets stiff.

And with a production cost of around 10 USD per GH, I'm pretty sure ASICMINER has a good chance of beating the competition. Anybody have any estimates for BFL production cost, for instance?

[velacreations]

yes of course but the problem is BFL is more then 10X lower in price and they are really shipping the jallys.  I rather be ahead of the curve and pull profit now.

they are shipping jals that were ordered almost a year ago!

it will be a long time before you can order a jal and get it within a month.  that is when BFL competes with AM products, so maybe this time next year.
 

[philipma1957]

yes of course but the problem is BFL is more then 10X lower in price and they are really shipping the jallys.  I rather be ahead of the curve and pull profit now.

they are shipping jals that were ordered almost a year ago!

 


 that is the exact point that everyone keeps clinging to .  I am saying stop clinging to that. I am saying look at this link


http://bfl.ptz.ro/    watch it change day by day.  then decide. 

The delivered status was frozen for what seemed like forever well it is no longer frozen.

[michaelGedi]

The board had a meeting yesterday. friedcat is doing well and is very busy with growing the company.

I understand some of you guys want more information, but releasing information has to fit with the strategy of the company, which means that sometimes things are progressing in a secretive manner. Of course this doesn't help with investment decisions.

I recommend that the PT operators or willing board members should compile questions from smaller investors and feed them to friedcat in a structured manner. Maybe the replies could be organized as a FAQ. He simply doesn't have time to dig through the forum and answer questions here.

I would be willing to take on this task, perhaps even do this on a monthly basis. Please PM me with questions you would like friedcat to address, with the subject line "ASICMiner FAQ". I will compile them and send it to him. As previously mentioned, friedcat may not answer the question if he deems that it may divulge Bitfountain's strategy/plan to competitors.

Franktank, if you are up for it, I would like to help moderate the list of what is actually submitted to Friedcat as questions. I just think it'll take 2 or 3 people with their heads on straight to edit this and make sure it's digestible.

very good, I like this idea a lot.

I have some suggestions:

1 - make a public thread for the FAQ so that people know if a question has been submitted already. This also allows people to "second" a question, and to comment or take inspiration from others questions.

2 - possibly voting on the choice of questions. If it is to be monthly, and only a handful of questions, this could be a good idea to make sure the majority are happy.

3 - "yes/no" questions for areas that may be sensitive, or in order to get more information at a quicker rate without wasting friedcat's time perhaps.

4 - perhaps scouring the thread for important unanswered questions. Then again, those who asked them should still have them on their mind I guess...

[Mausini]

yes of course but the problem is BFL is more then 10X lower in price and they are really shipping the jallys.  I rather be ahead of the curve and pull profit now.

they are shipping jals that were ordered almost a year ago!

 


 that is the exact point that everyone keeps clinging to .  I am saying stop clinging to that. I am saying look at this link


http://bfl.ptz.ro/    watch it change day by day.  then decide. 

The delivered status was frozen for what seemed like forever well it is no longer frozen.

Come on!!! Stop spreading fud. And please go educate yourself. as if share price would directly reflect hardware prices tzzzz. AM can sell at those high prices, because nobody else can deliver. thats just the right thing to do. if other can deliver aswell, am will lower prices and still beat them, because they are in shenzen and have everything right at their hands.

[Lohoris]

But it's not necessary to try to predict the ability of competitors to deliver products; it's sufficient to gauge whether or not we think we would make more money by lowering prices at current market conditions, and if we think that's the case, we should do it.

+1

That is a subtlety I disagree with. In order for AM to always be the leader, they actually need to always lower prices at least a couple weeks BEFORE their competitors sell a competitive offering.

I disagree: they should keep higher prices until it is clear that the competitors are really gaining an edge.
"Just lowering the price" leads to a downward spiral were everyone loses.

[velacreations]

The delivered status was frozen for what seemed like forever well it is no longer frozen.

yeah, but the backlog is enormous.  those units were ordered last June/July.  

How can that possibly be competition for products that are ordered this week, shipped this week?

I mean, come on.  On one hand, you have products shipping that were purchased a year ago with a huge backlog of orders behind them, and on the other hand, you have products that you can get in a few days.  Which do you buy?

Price is not the only thing with mining hardware, speed of delivery is very important.  BFL can ship all the 1 yr old orders they want, but that does not compete at all with AM hardware that ships immediately.

[ThickAsThieves]

The delivered status was frozen for what seemed like forever well it is no longer frozen.

yeah, but the backlog is enormous.  those units were ordered last June/July. 

How can that possibly be competition for products that are ordered this week, shipped this week?

While I agree, there is indeed some crossover. Your average bitcoiner is not only ignorant enough to compare BFL's offering with AM's and choose BFL, despite uncertain shipdates, but they are also ignorant enough to not even know AM blades exist. BFL does better marketing, that is a fact.

[stripykitteh]

I have some suggestions:

1 - make a public thread for the FAQ so that people know if a question has been submitted already. This also allows people to "second" a question, and to comment or take inspiration from others questions.

2 - possibly voting on the choice of questions. If it is to be monthly, and only a handful of questions, this could be a good idea to make sure the majority are happy.

3 - "yes/no" questions for areas that may be sensitive, or in order to get more information at a quicker rate without wasting friedcat's time perhaps.

4 - perhaps scouring the thread for important unanswered questions. Then again, those who asked them should still have them on their mind I guess...

If this is done, I'd like the results of voting on what questions are submitted remain confidential. That way if a question is popular but sensitive, AM can choose whether to answer it, bearing in mind that it will be released to the public.

[velacreations]

BFL does better marketing, that is a fact.

that's true, but that is a fairly easy fix for AM. 200 btc would completely change the situation.

[nexus 6]

BFL does better marketing, that is a fact.

that's true, but that is a fairly easy fix for AM. 200 btc would completely change the situation.

Agree, but seem its necessary to Fix.  Somebody who doesnt know about the blades, dont buy it

[velacreations]

does anyone see people selling AM products/shares to buy BFL products?  I see people selling BFL pre-orders to buy blades and AM shares all the time...

[michaelGedi]

I have some suggestions:

1 - make a public thread for the FAQ so that people know if a question has been submitted already. This also allows people to "second" a question, and to comment or take inspiration from others questions.

2 - possibly voting on the choice of questions. If it is to be monthly, and only a handful of questions, this could be a good idea to make sure the majority are happy.

3 - "yes/no" questions for areas that may be sensitive, or in order to get more information at a quicker rate without wasting friedcat's time perhaps.

4 - perhaps scouring the thread for important unanswered questions. Then again, those who asked them should still have them on their mind I guess...

If this is done, I'd like the results of voting on what questions are submitted remain confidential. That way if a question is popular but sensitive, AM can choose whether to answer it, bearing in mind that it will be released to the public.

good idea

[zeocrash]

As ASICMiner is doing so well and BFL has a few issues, why doesn't it just offer to buy Butterfly labs (the company, not their ASIC's)?
They can't do a worse job of running BFL than the current owners, and they may even be able to use Firedcat's Midas touch to make us some more money

[stripykitteh]

The delivered status was frozen for what seemed like forever well it is no longer frozen.

yeah, but the backlog is enormous.  those units were ordered last June/July.  

How can that possibly be competition for products that are ordered this week, shipped this week?

I mean, come on.  On one hand, you have products shipping that were purchased a year ago with a huge backlog of orders behind them, and on the other hand, you have products that you can get in a few days.  Which do you buy?

Price is not the only thing with mining hardware, speed of delivery is very important.  BFL can ship all the 1 yr old orders they want, but that does not compete at all with AM hardware that ships immediately.

I've been keeping my own track of BFL's order book. Even the newbs are wising up where BFL is concerned. The number of new invoices they are generating per day has been steadily declining for a while. The rolling 5-day average is now down to about 250 from a high of almost 1000 on the 10th of April:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlTboxjHIfuGdFd4NEJOcVBqRHRnQkVfVWVCcnBfdVE&gid=1

I estimate that about 40% of invoices end up being paid for so they're currently only getting about 100 new orders a day, mostly 5GH/s miners. If that's their only source of cash flow they'd want to have a hefty bankroll saved if they have any new NRE coming up.