ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[ThickAsThieves]

Maybe next week divs will be a bit less cause blades are sold out

It's possible, but also consider three things:

1. AM probably set themselves up with large orders to distributors, this may or may not have been reflected in recent dividends.
2. AM started advertising their USBminers recently, this will likely boost sales.
3. AM likely held back some blades for their farm, to continued increased hashing, enough at least to keep up with any difficulty increases until they get the next batch in.

I am merely speculating here, but this is how *I* see it...  

[nubbins]

The blades are temporarily out of stock.

Please wait till late June to early July for newer blades with improved design and better price.

emphasis mine

[stslimited]

Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis

ASICMiner market cap =
BTC 1152000  (@ btc 2.88/share)
$117,504,000   (@ $102 btc/usd)

Yet bitcoin's market cap =
11,274,675 (bitcoins mined)
$1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd)

and ASICMiner =
24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools )

yet ASICMiner currently trades at =
10% of bitcoin market cap

without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at =
24% of bitcoin market cap

this puts the share price at =
BTC 6.76  ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares )

and this represents a =
234% price increase from today's prices

ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network)

ASICMiner shares are very cheap.

ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.

Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner.

feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above.

This analysis ignores hardware sales, which are a large and complimentary percentage of ASICMiner's value.

[jmutch]

^^^ nice
 
Right now i'm very curious of two things:

What the market price of shares will be by pre-dividends on Wednesday

What the dividends will be this week.

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

[nubbins]

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.

[ThickAsThieves]

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.

BTC/USD has never been that high, it was $256, for a moment, 2 months ago.

[JordanL]

^^^ nice
 
Right now i'm very curious of two things:

What the market price of shares will be by pre-dividends on Wednesday

What the dividends will be this week.

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

1) BTC3.3
2) BTC0.02994010 per share
3) profit???


Note: the above is made up out of the clear blue sky.

[JordanL]

For people wondering about dividends... I again will point you to the chart I had runeks make.  Take a look at this...



We are doing FAR better then last week at the same time, so divs should be wonderful imho.

For the full chart visit http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/ and DONATE to him and SmiGueL  (http://www.asicminercharts.com/) for their AMAZING charts that I cant stop staring at.

thanks for posting this.   

[kokojie]

Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis

ASICMiner market cap =
BTC 1152000  (@ btc 2.88/share)
$117,504,000   (@ $102 btc/usd)

Yet bitcoin's market cap =
11,274,675 (bitcoins mined)
$1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd)

and ASICMiner =
24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools )

yet ASICMiner currently trades at =
10% of bitcoin market cap

without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at =
24% of bitcoin market cap

this puts the share price at =
BTC 6.76  ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares )

and this represents a =
234% price increase from today's prices

ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network)

ASICMiner shares are very cheap.

ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.

Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner.

feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above.

Not sure why you think AM should be 24% of Bitcoin market cap, the coins that are already mined, are not owned by AM. Unless you think miners at any time, combined, should be worth 100% of Bitcoin marketcap, which doesn't make any sense.

AM's potential profits comes from the coins that are not yet mined, and also selling hardware. These two are actually the same thing, by selling hardware, AM is creating competition to itself. Realistically, we can assume AM will maintain, on average, 20% of network for at least a few years, and then who knows what happens, a few competitors are developing sub 50nm process, which will hugely beat AM's hardware(though AM is also looking to do this in the near future).

[jmutch]

^^^ nice
 
Right now i'm very curious of two things:

What the market price of shares will be by pre-dividends on Wednesday

What the dividends will be this week.

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

1) BTC3.3
2) BTC0.02994010 per share
3) profit???


Note: the above is made up out of the clear blue sky.

 i think you'll be closer than you think. but who knows right....your 1st and 3rd point are somewhat contradictory though

[ThickAsThieves]

...
ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.
...

Imho this would be a very bad move, even 25% could be considered a threat to the system as they could potentially hold enough hardware in stock to exceed half the network capacity and at 40% they would almost certainly be capable of that. It might be good for dividends but it would be a potential threat and so devalue Bitcoin.

ASICMINER never said they plan to grab 33-40% of the network, afaik.

My guess is that their goal is to maintain the equivalent of < 50% of the network if you were to remove the largest mining pool.

[stslimited]

Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis

ASICMiner market cap =
BTC 1152000  (@ btc 2.88/share)
$117,504,000   (@ $102 btc/usd)

Yet bitcoin's market cap =
11,274,675 (bitcoins mined)
$1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd)

and ASICMiner =
24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools )

yet ASICMiner currently trades at =
10% of bitcoin market cap

without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at =
24% of bitcoin market cap

this puts the share price at =
BTC 6.76  ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares )

and this represents a =
234% price increase from today's prices

ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network)

ASICMiner shares are very cheap.

ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.

Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner.

feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above.

Not sure why you think AM should be 24% of Bitcoin market cap, the coins that are already mined, are not owned by AM. Unless you think miners at any time, combined, should be worth 100% of Bitcoin marketcap, which doesn't make any sense.

AM's potential profits comes from the coins that are not yet mined, and also selling hardware. These two are actually the same thing, by selling hardware, AM is creating competition to itself. Realistically, we can assume AM will maintain 20% of network for at least a few years, and then who knows what happens, a few competitors are developing sub 50nm process, which will hugely beat AM's hardware(though AM is also looking to do this in the near future).

I did consider that, I consider their contribution to the hashrate of the network is still valued greater

[HeRetiK]

Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis

ASICMiner market cap =
BTC 1152000  (@ btc 2.88/share)
$117,504,000   (@ $102 btc/usd)

Yet bitcoin's market cap =
11,274,675 (bitcoins mined)
$1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd)

and ASICMiner =
24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools )

yet ASICMiner currently trades at =
10% of of bitcoin market cap

without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at =
24% of bitcoin market cap

this puts the share price at =
BTC 6.76  ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares )

and this represents a =
234% price increase from today's prices

ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network)

ASICMiner shares are very cheap.

ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.

Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner.

feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above.

That's assuming Asicminer being able to keep 24% of the network hashrate until all BTC are mined... which is still a fairly long way to go.

Now Asicminer had a great headstart being the only ASIC project besides Avalon to actually deliver. And I'm positive that they will keep a significant portion of hashpower. But there are a lot of Asic projects scheduled for the next few months, heck even BFL seems to slowly get their shit together. Be careful with your assumptions is all that I'm saying.

[stslimited]

...
ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price.
...

Imho this would be a very bad move, even 25% could be considered a threat to the system as they could potentially hold enough hardware in stock to exceed half the network capacity and at 40% they would almost certainly be capable of that. It might be good for dividends but it would be a potential threat and so devalue Bitcoin.

ASICMINER never said they plan to grab 33-40% of the network, afaik.

My guess is that their goal is to maintain the equivalent of < 50% of the network if you were to remove the largest mining pool.

they plan on adding X hundred terahashes, thats all I currently know

[nubbins]

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.

BTC/USD has never been that high, it was $256, for a moment, 2 months ago.

Consider my statement suitably modified. People are selling because they think the price will fall.

[HeRetiK]

they plan on adding X hundred terahashes, thats all I currently know

They aim for about 280TH by September. If that equates to 24% of the network by then is a different question. Given the recent influx of new Asic projects it might be much less than that. If they all pull an BFL however, well, good for Asicminer Interesting times, let's see what happens!

[stripykitteh]

feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above.

With respect, I think your assertion that a mining asset's value should correlate to its share of the network multiplied by the market cap of Bitcoin is wrong. The long term value from mining will be income from processing transactions. If the volume of transactions per unit of time doubled and the value of fees per unit of time doubled that would double the return from mining (making a mining asset twice as valuable). However the number of Bitcoins in circulation wouldn't change.

[ianp]

they plan on adding X hundred terahashes, thats all I currently know

They aim for about 280TH by September. If that equates to 24% of the network by then is a different question. Given the recent influx of new Asic projects it might be much less than that. If they all pull an BFL however, well, good for Asicminer Interesting times, let's see what happens!

If the current difficulty increase trend holds true until September, ASICMINER will need 519% more hashing power than they have today to maintain the current 24%. In other words, they'll need to increase their hashing power from 33.13 th/s to 171.94 th/s.

Whoops -- math was wrong. I should say October rather than September.

Edit #2 -- and three months after that, it will require 17 times today's hashing power to maintain the same ratio.  2.281 ph/s

[ning]

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.

BTC/USD has never been that high, it was $256, for a moment, 2 months ago.

It was once $266.

[ThickAsThieves]

Also, why is anyone selling shares under 3BTC? i just can't grasp it.

Because they watched BTC fall from $290 to $100 several weeks ago, and don't want to get caught holding the bag again.

BTC/USD has never been that high, it was $256, for a moment, 2 months ago.

It was once $266.

Indeed! I sit corrected.