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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914548 times)
stslimited
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June 24, 2013, 05:54:26 AM
 #8261

so BASIC-MINING is priced to give out a 6% APR. basically steady dividends and the share price rises to reflect that. every time the dividends there rise, the share price rises to keep the APR at the same %

ASICMiner has a muuuuuch higher APR yet a muchhh lower share price in comparison. IE. if ASICMiner was priced like BASIC-MINING (for a 6% APR) then its share price would have to be much much higher...

why is ASICMiner shareprice so low in comparison? Its mining business is more flexible than BASIC-Mining's and the hardware sales are also a better bet since they are both "selling shovels and mining" simultaneously, something not very possible in previous gold rushes.


I understand this can be a factor of the offering structure, different # of shares outstanding, different % held privately, etc. but can someone shed some light onto this, in a 1:1 comparison? thanks!

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June 24, 2013, 06:06:22 AM
 #8262

insider price fixing coupled with lack of transparency ..hmmm
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June 24, 2013, 06:11:52 AM
 #8263

insider price fixing coupled with lack of transparency ..hmmm


well, large shareholders frequently conduct off-exchange large sales in auctions. this keeps the share price depressed for some time while these shares get filled and those new shareholders try to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities on the exchanges.

it basically takes a while for the market to digest it before AM can continue its upward trajectory.
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June 24, 2013, 06:15:20 AM
 #8264

insider price fixing coupled with lack of transparency ..hmmm


well, large shareholders frequently conduct off-exchange large sales in auctions. this keeps the share price depressed for some time while these shares get filled and those new shareholders try to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities on the exchanges.

it basically takes a while for the market to digest it before AM can continue its upward trajectory.

promo shares getting dumped at any price i see your point..thanks for the heads up
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June 24, 2013, 06:15:57 AM
 #8265

so BASIC-MINING is priced to give out a 6% APR. basically steady dividends and the share price rises to reflect that. every time the dividends there rise, the share price rises to keep the APR at the same %

ASICMiner has a muuuuuch higher APR yet a muchhh lower share price in comparison. IE. if ASICMiner was priced like BASIC-MINING (for a 6% APR) then its share price would have to be much much higher...

why is ASICMiner shareprice so low in comparison? Its mining business is more flexible than BASIC-Mining's and the hardware sales are also a better bet since they are both "selling shovels and mining" simultaneously, something not very possible in previous gold rushes.


I understand this can be a factor of the offering structure, different # of shares outstanding, different % held privately, etc. but can someone shed some light onto this, in a 1:1 comparison? thanks!



BASIC-MINING is hilariously overpriced by people who expected the "ASICMiner effect" to repeat itself (and it did, based on the share price). End of story. Even if BASIC-MINING maintains its current proportion of the total hashrate forever, it will NEVER mine enough BTC to cover the share price.

Do not compare the valuation of BASIC-MINING to ASICMiner. BASIC-MINING is valued based on ASICMiner's seemingly unlimited success, so extending that logic to ASICMiner results in the conclusion "since ASICMiner is going up, it is undervalued". Derp derp derp.

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June 24, 2013, 06:34:14 AM
 #8266

0 Blocks in the last 2 hours
2 Blocks in the last 4 hours

Either friedcat stepped on the wrong cable or we're having some very bad luck.
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June 24, 2013, 06:38:18 AM
 #8267

0 Blocks in the last 2 hours
2 Blocks in the last 4 hours

Either friedcat stepped on the wrong cable or we're having some very bad luck.

SELL SELL
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June 24, 2013, 06:38:53 AM
 #8268

0 Blocks in the last 2 hours
2 Blocks in the last 4 hours

Either friedcat stepped on the wrong cable or we're having some very bad luck.

SELL!!!!

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June 24, 2013, 06:45:49 AM
 #8269

this lack of productivity has caused:

http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

to produce errors as well:

------------
Estimated hashrate distribution

Data column(s) for axis #0 cannot be of type string×
------------
stslimited
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June 24, 2013, 06:48:03 AM
 #8270

so BASIC-MINING is priced to give out a 6% APR. basically steady dividends and the share price rises to reflect that. every time the dividends there rise, the share price rises to keep the APR at the same %

ASICMiner has a muuuuuch higher APR yet a muchhh lower share price in comparison. IE. if ASICMiner was priced like BASIC-MINING (for a 6% APR) then its share price would have to be much much higher...

why is ASICMiner shareprice so low in comparison? Its mining business is more flexible than BASIC-Mining's and the hardware sales are also a better bet since they are both "selling shovels and mining" simultaneously, something not very possible in previous gold rushes.


I understand this can be a factor of the offering structure, different # of shares outstanding, different % held privately, etc. but can someone shed some light onto this, in a 1:1 comparison? thanks!



BASIC-MINING is hilariously overpriced by people who expected the "ASICMiner effect" to repeat itself (and it did, based on the share price). End of story. Even if BASIC-MINING maintains its current proportion of the total hashrate forever, it will NEVER mine enough BTC to cover the share price.

Do not compare the valuation of BASIC-MINING to ASICMiner. BASIC-MINING is valued based on ASICMiner's seemingly unlimited success, so extending that logic to ASICMiner results in the conclusion "since ASICMiner is going up, it is undervalued". Derp derp derp.

only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.
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June 24, 2013, 08:04:08 AM
 #8271

so BASIC-MINING is priced to give out a 6% APR. basically steady dividends and the share price rises to reflect that. every time the dividends there rise, the share price rises to keep the APR at the same %

ASICMiner has a muuuuuch higher APR yet a muchhh lower share price in comparison. IE. if ASICMiner was priced like BASIC-MINING (for a 6% APR) then its share price would have to be much much higher...

why is ASICMiner shareprice so low in comparison? Its mining business is more flexible than BASIC-Mining's and the hardware sales are also a better bet since they are both "selling shovels and mining" simultaneously, something not very possible in previous gold rushes.


I understand this can be a factor of the offering structure, different # of shares outstanding, different % held privately, etc. but can someone shed some light onto this, in a 1:1 comparison? thanks!



BASIC-MINING is hilariously overpriced by people who expected the "ASICMiner effect" to repeat itself (and it did, based on the share price). End of story. Even if BASIC-MINING maintains its current proportion of the total hashrate forever, it will NEVER mine enough BTC to cover the share price.

Do not compare the valuation of BASIC-MINING to ASICMiner. BASIC-MINING is valued based on ASICMiner's seemingly unlimited success, so extending that logic to ASICMiner results in the conclusion "since ASICMiner is going up, it is undervalued". Derp derp derp.

only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.

I wouldn't base anything on BASIC-MINING.
This is a high-risk field. You expect large dividends. I certainly wouldn't invest in a bitcoin mining company that offered 2% returns. Because one day, their share value could easily go "pop" and you get nothing back, whatever you have invested. I expect to get my stake back in 12-18 months and what happens after that, happens. Maybe the share price will sky-rocket, maybe it will sink. But I want a high % chance my money comes back before then. If you invest in a bitcoin mining company that offers 2% dividends you are .... not me  Grin
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June 24, 2013, 08:05:35 AM
 #8272

only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.

You can't compare a mining business to a regular dividend issuing security, at least I wouldn't do that. For a mining business, AM's share price is already very high in my opinion.

If you expect AM to keep their 25% share of the network for the next three years (how likely is that, really?), within that time they would earn about 985500 BTC. That's 2,46 BTC/share. After that comes the next block halving, and god knows what that's going to do. The only thing that - maybe - justifies a higher share price right now, is the hardware sales. Those have been doubling the profit for a few weeks now, and that's great. But however you see it, they are at the absolute peak right now. Saying "...,and the yield just keeps growing" just has no rational basis. The yield will decrease over time, it only can, how is that not obvious to you? Even if they keep their 25%, the costs to keep that percentage will only increase (electricity and infrastructure), thus decreasing profit. So every valuation of the share has to factor in the unevitable decrease in profits.

And a 3 year projection is already a very long timeframe if you look at the history of bitcoin mining... We're looking at a company here that offers very little transparency, they neither have a website nor a public address. I'm not saying they will, but theoretically, they could just decide to completely screw everyone over, sell all their shares, take the money and just keep mining for themselves. They are making millions of dollars worth of btc, they wouldn't be the first to become criminal for that amount of money. Nobody could stop them.

Yes, yes, everything could turn out wonderful and AM could stay the biggest player in the mining world for decades. But stating that the share price should be so so much higher is just ignoring all the risks, and frankly, common sense and math.

Needless to say, as of today, I'm not a shareholder anymore, I just sold all my shares at ~3.4 and I am quite happy with the profit I made. I don't write this as a measure to push the price down, as I don't plan on buying back in. I'm not even sure I made sense (it's really late), but just see this as an objective opinion that doesn't have the incentive of pumping the share price, which is really rare to come by in this thread.
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June 24, 2013, 08:16:59 AM
 #8273

only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.

You can't compare a mining business to a regular dividend issuing security, at least I wouldn't do that. For a mining business, AM's share price is already very high in my opinion.

If you expect AM to keep their 25% share of the network for the next three years (how likely is that, really?), within that time they would earn about 985500 BTC. That's 2,46 BTC/share. After that comes the next block halving, and god knows what that's going to do. The only thing that - maybe - justifies a higher share price right now, is the hardware sales. Those have been doubling the profit for a few weeks now, and that's great. But however you see it, they are at the absolute peak right now. Saying "...,and the yield just keeps growing" just has no rational basis. The yield will decrease over time, it only can, how is that not obvious to you? Even if they keep their 25%, the costs to keep that percentage will only increase (electricity and infrastructure), thus decreasing profit. So every valuation of the share has to factor in the unevitable decrease in profits.

And a 3 year projection is already a very long timeframe if you look at the history of bitcoin mining... We're looking at a company here that offers very little transparency, they neither have a website nor a public address. I'm not saying they will, but theoretically, they could just decide to completely screw everyone over, sell all their shares, take the money and just keep mining for themselves. They are making millions of dollars worth of btc, they wouldn't be the first to become criminal for that amount of money. Nobody could stop them.

Yes, yes, everything could turn out wonderful and AM could stay the biggest player in the mining world for decades. But stating that the share price should be so so much higher is just ignoring all the risks, and frankly, common sense and math.

Needless to say, as of today, I'm not a shareholder anymore, I just sold all my shares at ~3.4 and I am quite happy with the profit I made. I don't write this as a measure to push the price down, as I don't plan on buying back in. I'm not even sure I made sense (it's really late), but just see this as an objective opinion that doesn't have the incentive of pumping the share price, which is really rare to come by in this thread.

I agree about the mining, and agree you sold at a great price. The hardware sales are a massive unknown though, and they could generate substantial extra revenues for the next few years. We've already seen way overpriced USB sticks sell well. If AM learn from that, and produce more competitive hardware for public sale in USB form, it will generate lots of cash ongoing.
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June 24, 2013, 08:29:34 AM
Last edit: June 24, 2013, 09:00:52 AM by SOSLOVE868
 #8274

only kind of what I was getting at. BASIC-MINING offers a 6% apr based on the share price. ASICMiner offers at ~50-70% APR based on the share price. Why isn't ASICMiner's share price much higher to make its yield more like 6%. Forget bitcoin for a sec, most dividend issuing securities offer 1-3% yield ANNUALLY, and their share price stays proportionally higher to keep this in line. ASICMiner share price goes up, but hardly ever changing the percentage yield ratio, and the yield just keeps growing.

You can't compare a mining business to a regular dividend issuing security, at least I wouldn't do that. For a mining business, AM's share price is already very high in my opinion.

If you expect AM to keep their 25% share of the network for the next three years (how likely is that, really?), within that time they would earn about 985500 BTC. That's 2,46 BTC/share. After that comes the next block halving, and god knows what that's going to do. The only thing that - maybe - justifies a higher share price right now, is the hardware sales. Those have been doubling the profit for a few weeks now, and that's great. But however you see it, they are at the absolute peak right now. Saying "...,and the yield just keeps growing" just has no rational basis. The yield will decrease over time, it only can, how is that not obvious to you? Even if they keep their 25%, the costs to keep that percentage will only increase (electricity and infrastructure), thus decreasing profit. So every valuation of the share has to factor in the unevitable decrease in profits.

And a 3 year projection is already a very long timeframe if you look at the history of bitcoin mining... We're looking at a company here that offers very little transparency, they neither have a website nor a public address. I'm not saying they will, but theoretically, they could just decide to completely screw everyone over, sell all their shares, take the money and just keep mining for themselves. They are making millions of dollars worth of btc, they wouldn't be the first to become criminal for that amount of money. Nobody could stop them.

Yes, yes, everything could turn out wonderful and AM could stay the biggest player in the mining world for decades. But stating that the share price should be so so much higher is just ignoring all the risks, and frankly, common sense and math.

Needless to say, as of today, I'm not a shareholder anymore, I just sold all my shares at ~3.4 and I am quite happy with the profit I made. I don't write this as a measure to push the price down, as I don't plan on buying back in. I'm not even sure I made sense (it's really late), but just see this as an objective opinion that doesn't have the incentive of pumping the share price, which is really rare to come by in this thread.

The question is how can you  continues make return in BTC  world like that you invest in AM. get short profit is a good deal by one side, but gives up potential future return is in other side.  

I think after you sold your AM, You have three choices right now: trading BTC on those exchanges, investing in those very low return stocks or leaves BTC world.  

 If price of BTC today's is $100 per coin, if it did succeed few years later , it obvious the price of BTC will be strongly appreciated by that time.

Considering to the past history of AM and  the potential  hardware selling in the future, although the price of AM is expensive right now,  it does generating 30% per year. Only if this ROI been proper maintained most of shares holders are not  likely to sell their shares cheaper to  allow new investors have better ROI. what you sold today just equal to give up future return ...

about the block halving three years later, just means cut its 30% yield by half to 15%, and this will affected to all miners and all mining revenue will be decreased, then is this mean people do not mining?

 I don't think so , the only thing will adjusting to it is the price of BTC(Most likely price will be huge increased ,if BTC is survived by that time).  

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June 24, 2013, 08:56:29 AM
 #8275

I'd like for someone to justify the share price at 3.4? I'd be happy to buy more at 2.5-2.7 but everything above 3 seems really overpriced to me!

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June 24, 2013, 08:58:43 AM
Last edit: June 24, 2013, 09:18:13 AM by DeanC
 #8276

new post by friedcat:
Quote
OP Updated

If you reach the total volume of 1,000 USB sticks, price is dropped to 0.89 each. We will also pay back the price difference of all your historic transaction (timeline started from the 0.99 pricing) of USB sticks. For example, if you bought more than 1,000 sticks, 500 for 1.99 and 500 for 0.99, the new price will be 0.89, and we will pay you the price difference for the 0.99 USB sticks, that is (0.99-0.89)*500=50BTC.

Sorry for the original ambiguation before that misled some customers that the price difference we pay back is 1.0BTC. What we expected to say is for the price difference based on both new prices.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=217104.msg2563011#msg2563011

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https://www.facebook.com/asicminer
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June 24, 2013, 09:08:28 AM
 #8277

I'd like for someone to justify the share price at 3.4? I'd be happy to buy more at 2.5-2.7 but everything above 3 seems really overpriced to me!

As long as AM maintained its hashrate all the time about 20% of entire network,reasonable shares holders will not make great sale below than 3 BTC.

It will generate 21.9% return per year for its investors without any hardware sell.
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June 24, 2013, 09:21:23 AM
 #8278

What about the next block reward halving, what'll happen then?

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June 24, 2013, 09:25:46 AM
 #8279

What about the next block reward halving, what'll happen then?

then there will be 12.5 BTC reward for finding a block instead of 25 BTC
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June 24, 2013, 09:27:11 AM
 #8280

What about the next block reward halving, what'll happen then?

then there will be 12.5 BTC reward for finding a block instead of 25 BTC

Haha, That I know, I was talking about the share price.

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