ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[eltopo]

I tried myself to create a list with AM shareholders based on yesterday's dividends:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtqphFCP56ordGVCakJxSU90MlB4MlBkZENya25pS2c

I got > 398k of the 400k shares. If you find any errors please let me know!

Updated by dividend day 2013-06-12

Why does it say DeaDTerra PT has 12,876 shares when in reality there are 18,845 shares listed on BitFunder?

There might be another DeaDTerra address which is not known to me.

[g83]

My estimate for next div is 0.02684

[ning]

An estimate of the value of an ASICMiner share (with conservative-ish assumptions)

Assumptions:
   * Bitcoin will still be around by the time our kids become adults.
   * AM will maintain a minimum of 20% of total hashrate for another five years. (about 80% of total coins will be mined by that time [1])
   * Tx fee is down to zero:(
   * Operaional fee is zero:)

Calculations:
   * Total number of coins will be mined by AM by Jun 2018:
     (52500 * 3.5 * 25 + 52500 * 1.5 * 12.5) * 0.2 = 1115625.0
   * Let X be the percentage on sales income over mining income,
     Price per share (PPS) will be 1115625.0 * (1 + X) / 400000,
         X = 0.1, PPS = 3.068 BTC;
         X = 0.2, PPS = 3.347 BTC;
         X = 0.3, PPS = 3.626 BTC;
         X = 0.4, PPS = 3.905 BTC;
         X = 0.5, PPS = 4.184 BTC;
         X = 0.6, PPS = 4.463 BTC;
         X = 0.7, PPS = 4.741 BTC;
         X = 0.8, PPS = 5.020 BTC;
         X = 0.9, PPS = 5.299 BTC;
         X = 1.0, PPS = 5.578 BTC; (We are around here as of recently)
         X = 1.1, PPS = 5.857 BTC;
         X = 1.2, PPS = 6.136 BTC;
         X = 1.3, PPS = 6.415 BTC;
         X = 1.4, PPS = 6.694 BTC;
         X = 1.5, PPS = 6.973 BTC;
         ...

References:
   [1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

(Be diligent and do your own calculations. I am a shareholder and I am biased.)

[Strange Vlad]

Meanwhile, is it too early to start estimating the next dividends? I would bet on no less than 0.036, possibly even breaking the record, seeing how much the hash rate increased in the last few days. And I feel the divs are not going below 0.03 anymore until competitors roll out their ASICs en masse. What do you think?

Read the last few pages of this thread, there have already been some estimates, which are very different from yours, and are more informed.

I have been reading for 5 days, not reading older posts. Yes, people say that sales divs are gonna be down because the blades are sold out, but they are still selling USB sticks, aren't they?

Of course I'm likely wrong, because I haven't come from finance and all this is still new to me. So please be welcome to point at my mistakes, as I'm always happy to learn. Thank you!

[Lohoris]

Of course I'm likely wrong, because I haven't come from finance and all this is still new to me. So please be welcome to point at my mistakes, as I'm always happy to learn. Thank you!

I really didn't mean to sound harsh, sorry!

[tomywomy]

I said that (stating another way for clarity) it has no inherent value outside of the value that can be used in trade.

I agree, and to this I say that the value that can be used in trade is substantial.  Facilitating trade is a huge value - look at the valuation of stock markets, financial markets in general, banks, visa, etc...  These organizations are worth trillions of dollars globally because they facilitate secure trade - they provide no other value.  Bitcoin represents a platform for trade that is completely decentralized.  The more people use it, the more valuable bitcoins themselves become. 

[Eric Muyser]

My estimate for next div is 0.02684

Good estimate I'd say. Around 2.1-2.6 IMO.

[pikeadz]

Havelock breached BTC3 while I was asleeep, then went back down.  But the line has technically been crossed.

[tomywomy]

My estimate for next div is 0.02684

Good estimate I'd say. Around 2.1-2.6 IMO.

I think it will be higher.  Current solomining effort this week is on target for 0.021 alone.  There would have to be very little hardware sales for dividend to be only 0.026 and none at all for 0.021.

[g83]

Just posted that to prevent sharepricebubblepop next week 

[SRoulette]

Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ?

Friedcat tripping over cat5 in the datacenter perhaps ?

[Smidge]

Friedcat tripping over cat5 in the datacenter perhaps ?

Anyone know how the "datacenter" even looks?

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Also hosts MtGox.

[ning]

Havelock breached BTC3 while I was asleeep, then went back down.  But the line has technically been crossed.

The recent growth is too rapid and definitely not sustainable. I'd like to see a slower but more steady growth.

[Smidge]

Also hosts MtGox.

That's quite funny, but as an investor, it would be nice to have some transparency.

[tinus42]

An estimate of the value of an ASICMiner share (with conservative-ish assumptions)

Assumptions:
   * Bitcoin will still be around by the time our kids become adults.
   * AM will maintain a minimum of 20% of total hashrate for another five years. (about 80% of total coins will be mined by that time [1])
   * Tx fee is down to zero:(
   * Operaional fee is zero:)

Calculations:
   * Total number of coins will be mined by AM by Jun 2018:
     (52500 * 3.5 * 25 + 52500 * 1.5 * 12.5) * 0.2 = 1115625.0
   * Let X be the percentage on sales income over mining income,
     Price per share (PPS) will be 1115625.0 * (1 + X) / 400000,
         X = 0.1, PPS = 3.068 BTC;
         X = 0.2, PPS = 3.347 BTC;
         X = 0.3, PPS = 3.626 BTC;
         X = 0.4, PPS = 3.905 BTC;
         X = 0.5, PPS = 4.184 BTC;
         X = 0.6, PPS = 4.463 BTC;
         X = 0.7, PPS = 4.741 BTC;
         X = 0.8, PPS = 5.020 BTC;
         X = 0.9, PPS = 5.299 BTC;
         X = 1.0, PPS = 5.578 BTC; (We are around here as of recently)
         X = 1.1, PPS = 5.857 BTC;
         X = 1.2, PPS = 6.136 BTC;
         X = 1.3, PPS = 6.415 BTC;
         X = 1.4, PPS = 6.694 BTC;
         X = 1.5, PPS = 6.973 BTC;
         ...

References:
   [1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

(Be diligent and do your own calculations. I am a shareholder and I am biased.)

Are you taking the shit? So a single share will be worth $557800 in 2018 if both the mining percentage and the BTCUSD price stays the same? 

Actually of course income /= divs. They need to pay for electricity, housing, staff, etc before they can pay out divs. So it would be less. Lets assume 50%. But still.. 

[SmiGueL]

Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ?

Whatever it was, all blocks (4) in the last hour are found by ASICMINER
https://blockchain.info/

Nothing to worry about

[Eric Muyser]

Any reason for the noticeable hash rate drop off ?

Friedcat tripping over cat5 in the datacenter perhaps ?

It happens every time they take them off the pools, so that's a piece of it (doesn't make up for all of the dropoff unless they decided to move things around).

[r3wt]

it never ceases to amaze me how genius some people are. I myself am pretty smart, but these guys that are on the cutting edge are kind of like my heroes. how bout a round of applause for everyone who made ASIC Mining possible.

[nubbins]

Havelock breached BTC3 while I was asleeep, then went back down.  But the line has technically been crossed.

I was pleased to learn that I had sold some units while I slept. They hit a high of BTC0.03245