New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[philipma1957]

Hey Philipma1957 you have given adaseb 2 slots

He currently holds +12.01 - 12.25 and also 12.26 - 12.50

+12.01 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50

It's only fair to the rest to point this out 

will do some corrections the switching makes it harder

[1714738764]

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[philipma1957]

 I did a few corrections


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from +2.26 to +2.50
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.50 RoadStress---------Switched from -2.26 to -2.50

+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+6.11%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+11.81%)  nasty number

[Quickseller]

I'd like to switch my guess to + 15.01 to 15.25

Also why does roadstress get a .5% range?

[EMIF]

My difficulty estimation is between:

+11.01-11.25

[shapeshift]

I want to make highest estimation from +18.51 to +18.75 % for the current round.

[RealMalatesta]

Shouldn't we make a Bingo out of it? Every bidder pays 0.01 BTC to an address, the winner takes it all?

[EMIF]

Shouldn't we make a Bingo out of it? Every bidder pays 0.01 BTC to an address, the winner takes it all?

Then , it will be basicly a gambling which some people cannot attend due to religional causes -including me-.
I really appreciate OP's effort to make such a thread and I just dont want him to change from original status to a pot like system.

[philipma1957]

I'd like to switch my guess to + 15.01 to 15.25

Also why does roadstress get a .5% range?

my bad will fix it.

[philipma1957]

I did a few corrections


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00-----open-------------- Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from +2.26 to +2.50
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.25 RoadStress---------Switched from -2.26 to -2.50---- and corrected to a .25 range

+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00

+ 15.01 to 15.25  Quickerseller----- Switched from -1.76 to -2.00

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+6.11%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+11.81%)  nasty number

[koenmtb1]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?   

[philipma1957]

I think the list is up to date


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00-----open-------------- Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from +2.26 to +2.50
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

+11.01 to +11.25 EMIF

+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.25 RoadStress---------Switched from -2.26 to -2.50---- and corrected to a .25 range

+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00

+ 15.01 to 15.25  Quickerseller----- Switched from -1.76 to -2.00
+18.51  to 18.75   shapeshift
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+6.05%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+11.39%)  nasty number

Shouldn't we make a Bingo out of it? Every bidder pays 0.01 BTC to an address, the winner takes it all?

Then , it will be basicly a gambling which some people cannot attend due to religional causes -including me-.
I really appreciate OP's effort to make such a thread and I just dont want him to change from original status to a pot like system.

This is setup as a possible free gift  with nothing to lose  so it is not gambling

  which is how I want it to stay.  Basically many people do not want to gamble for many reasons.

 This is one of the few spots on the site designed for fun.  Free spec on the diff the price and a free guess for .1btc.

[Quickseller]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

[philipma1957]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

My guess is someone deployed a secret farm so to speak. If so I am hoping bitfury simply killed off old gear and replaced with new gear.  say they dropped 20ph and added 40ph.

and after this 8 to 12 % jump we stay flat.

[koenmtb1]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

My guess is someone deployed a secret farm so to speak. If so I am hoping bitfury simply killed off old gear and replaced with new gear.  say they dropped 20ph and added 40ph.

and after this 8 to 12 % jump we stay flat.

So we're probably hitting the top at 12%? That is 52323655601....
Let's hope it might be a bit lower... I think that the S6 and the new SP's will make a lot of difference and that home mining won't be a thing anymore after that...

[philipma1957]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

My guess is someone deployed a secret farm so to speak. If so I am hoping bitfury simply killed off old gear and replaced with new gear.  say they dropped 20ph and added 40ph.

and after this 8 to 12 % jump we stay flat.

So we're probably hitting the top at 12%? That is 52323655601....
Let's hope it might be a bit lower... I think that the S6 and the new SP's will make a lot of difference and that home mining won't be a thing anymore after that...

Home mining will be for low power homes. under 10 cents a kwatt.

or someone that uses spot electric space heaters 6 or 7 months a year.

[notlist3d]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

My guess is someone deployed a secret farm so to speak. If so I am hoping bitfury simply killed off old gear and replaced with new gear.  say they dropped 20ph and added 40ph.

and after this 8 to 12 % jump we stay flat.

I hope it goes back to flatter.  My biggest fear is someone has next gen chips and pumping them out.  I am hoping those chips take a few months for everyone to get though.  If a company does have next gen chips I could see them keep putting out quite a bit each week.

[GenTarkin]

What I hope happens at some point btc price plummets sub 100, many miners including farms cant afford to mine, asic demand is significantly lowered, asic companies go bankrupt and diff would start to go down significantly.
This would be nice.

[alh]

Well I think for this next change we can dispense with "It's just variance". The last few could clearly fit there, but the upcoming change is due to an actual increase it total hashrate. We may well look back at the first Quarter of 2015 as "The good times" for the year (I hope not).

If part of this is a turnover of Bitfury gear, what happens to the displaced gear?  

[GenTarkin]

Well I think for this next change we can dispense with "It's just variance". The last few could clearly fit there, but the upcoming change is due to an actual increase it total hashrate. We may well look back at the first Quarter of 2015 as "The good times" for the year (I hope not).

If part of this is a turnover of Bitfury gear, what happens to the displaced gear?  

Yeah, at this point its not just variance, its been a solid past week or so of this insane hashrate increase.

I bet it hits somewhere near 25% =P

[philipma1957]

So does anyone know why the network hashrate has jumped in the last few days?  

There is speculation that antpool had significantly above expected luck to account for part of the jump.

Obviously some of the jump is from new (likely more efficient) hardware being brought online. Part of it could probably be explained by batch 5 (?) of S5's being brought online. Bitmantech had an unusually long production run for this batch of S5s so it is possible they were using some of their production capacity to build their next generation of more efficient miners and brought them online for testing/were mining for themselves. Another possibility is that a private farm built a lot of privately built miners with their own chips. I haven't been following the hashrate distribution closely but it looks like the "unknown" share of found blocks is very high right now and I would think a lot of the unknown found blocks are from corporate miners not mining on pools.  

My guess is someone deployed a secret farm so to speak. If so I am hoping bitfury simply killed off old gear and replaced with new gear.  say they dropped 20ph and added 40ph.

and after this 8 to 12 % jump we stay flat.

I hope it goes back to flatter.  My biggest fear is someone has next gen chips and pumping them out.  I am hoping those chips take a few months for everyone to get though.  If a company does have next gen chips I could see them keep putting out quite a bit each week.

Yeah but it is moron to exceed by a lot. By that I mean a one time jump like I describe below for bitfury would be smart for them to do.

The math shows time and time again.  replace your shit gear with better gear and grow somewhat.

So the big bitfury gear was about 6th at 4000 watts.

If they drop in a  10th at 3000 watts.

   on 1 to 1 basis  their 20 MW farm was doing 30ph

so it now does  65ph

they may have powered off a lot   last jump and powered on 50ph. this jump.

look at bottom line  they were spending .67 watts a gh  now they spend .3 watts a gh  the market takes a big 10-15% hit lik it did last fall and it then goes flat for 5 months or so.


At 30ph using 20 MW with 6 cent power a farm makes 50800 a day.

at 65ph using 20 MW with 6 cent power a farm makes 143,688 a day.

So the economic sense of bitfury shutting off the remaining shit they were mining getting that nice little  1.50% drop last time.  

Then being perfectly setup to turn on a ton of gear for an entire 13 days making 90k a day in extra money for 13 days = 1 million plus in 2 weeks  not forgetting the other 50 k so 1.7 million in 12-14 days.

If all of the above is true. diff will go flat.  and bitfury will sell a lot of coins fast.. I am holding money to buy when we drop under 200 a coin.